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Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Yankees have made ‘strong offer’ for Machado

 

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 11, 2018 at 07:49 PM | 57 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: manny machado, orioles, rich get richer, yankees

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   1. rconn23 Posted: July 11, 2018 at 08:50 PM (#5708859)
Ellsbury and Sonny Gray for Machado. Wait ... is that too much?
   2. eric Posted: July 11, 2018 at 08:51 PM (#5708860)
Machado -> 3B
Andujar -> 1B
Bird -> Birds?

As much as I'm not a fan of the Yankees or the Orioles, I also don't know what the relative value is for a middling cost-controlled fairly young player compared with a superstar rental for less than half a season. That is, I'm not sure if Bird is about right, or way too little (or way too much??).
   3. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: July 11, 2018 at 08:57 PM (#5708863)
Ellsbury and Sonny Gray for Machado. Wait ... is that too much?


C'mon man, don't be a fanboy, at least throw in Chasen Shreve ...
   4. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 11, 2018 at 09:01 PM (#5708865)
It's reported that the Orioles would trade Machado for Justus Sheffield (#2 prospect, 2.53 ERA @ AAA Scranton, age-22). Unclear if the Yanks are offering Sheffield, but such a deal would seem to foreshadow trading an infielder, probably Didi, for pitching. Tight squeeze to do all that and stay under the luxury tax threshold, which is a priority.
   5. rconn23 Posted: July 11, 2018 at 09:11 PM (#5708873)
Unpopular opinion, but I'd love replacing Didi with Machado in the lineup. Didi is a good hitter, a very good defender, but he will always hack away at everything. The fans would revolt, and it will never happen, but Didi at bats are not my favorite.


   6. PreservedFish Posted: July 11, 2018 at 09:22 PM (#5708877)
Surprised that they might trade Didi.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: July 11, 2018 at 09:47 PM (#5708891)
I would be shocked if they trade Didi. If they land Machado, he's back at 3B. Unless possibly Torres is out longer than expected, then I could see Didi/Machado to 2B or similar. Above-average players are almost never traded by winning teams in-season plus Didi is still under team control for 2019 while Machado isn't. Trading Didi would practically commit them to signing Machado.

Other report I saw said Sheffield is not part of the Yanks' "strong offer." I can imagine Frazier being in it though, but more likely their #3 and #4 prospects or some such.

It's still just a half-season of Machado for a team whose divisional hopes are fading but who are virtually guaranteed a WC spot. Of course 3.5 games back is not far but it's also not a gap Machado is likely to close on his own.
   8. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 11, 2018 at 10:21 PM (#5708902)
I would be shocked if they trade Didi. If they land Machado, he's back at 3B. Unless possibly Torres is out longer than expected, then I could see Didi/Machado to 2B or similar. Above-average players are almost never traded by winning teams in-season plus Didi is still under team control for 2019 while Machado isn't. Trading Didi would practically commit them to signing Machado.

Manny's got the skills set of an historically great third baseman, but not the skill sets of a great shortstop. He's got a great first step but not so great steps after that, and you need more than a great first step at shortstop. If they're going to give up young talent for Manny, Andujar would be a far more logical choice than Didi.

OTOH I don't know why Manny would be considered just a rental, since the Yanks are under the luxury tax and would be in a better financial position to sign him than most any other team.

Not saying they should do it, unless it's necessary to keep him from the Red Sox. Manny might hit 95 home runs a year if he could play 81 games in Fenway and swap 19 games against Red Sox pitching for 19 games against the Orioles.

Other report I saw said Sheffield is not part of the Yanks' "strong offer." I can imagine Frazier being in it though, but more likely their #3 and #4 prospects or some such.

I'd hate to see the Yanks give up Frazier unless they were getting someone like DeGrom in return.

It's still just a half-season of Machado for a team whose divisional hopes are fading but who are virtually guaranteed a WC spot. Of course 3.5 games back is not far but it's also not a gap Machado is likely to close on his own

He can't, of course, but if the Yanks were to get him I'd have to assume they'd also sign him long term.
   9. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 11, 2018 at 11:16 PM (#5708935)
OTOH I don't know why Manny would be considered just a rental, since the Yanks are under the luxury tax and would be in a better financial position to sign him than most any other team.

It may be a bit more complicated. The Yankees are already committed to Stanton for $22M AAV through 2027. Another big bucks 10-year type contract is a bit of a problem with a parade of young stars about to hit arbitration - Severino this off-season, Judge & Sanchez the next, and on & on. They may set some records, either through arbitration or longer deals. Staying under the luxury tax threshold could get tight quickly, and I don't think you can live above it long-term anymore, although teams might stray above the threshold for a year or two for the right player(s). Beyond that, even if you're willing to absorb the cost, the draft pick & bonus pool penalties are a pretty big hit. Maybe Cashman can find a way to make it work, but I'm wary of the trade-offs down the road.
   10. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 12, 2018 at 07:41 AM (#5708967)
I would be shocked if they trade Didi. If they land Machado, he's back at 3B.


Presumably this would not be what Machado wants, since he must be planning to advertise himself as a SS first in the offseason. A few months either way can't make a big difference - teams' memories go back a while - but if he can't displace Didi, and the defensive stats aren't too kind . . .

I will be really sorry to see Didi go if he is moved. While not ever being the top MLB SS, he's fun to watch, fun to follow on Twitter, and is an object lesson for Yankees fans in giving new acquisitions time to settle in. Maybe also about the relative quality of Derek Jeter's defense.

Plus, reading about his upbringing gave my wife and I a fun goal for our retirement destination.
   11. Rally Posted: July 12, 2018 at 09:47 AM (#5708996)
That would be pointless for the Orioles to trade Machado for Didi. That puts them in the exact same spot in the offseason or at next year's deadline - "what can we get for Didi before he leaves as a free agent?"
   12. villageidiom Posted: July 12, 2018 at 09:48 AM (#5708997)
So who are the sources saying the Yankees have made a strong offer? Suspects include:

(a) The Orioles. They're trying to get other teams either to sweeten their offers or come to the table, which doesn't necessarily mean the offer from the Yankees is actually "strong".

(b) The Yankees. They could be trying to put pressure on the O's, who have demanded Sheffield, by publicizing that their non-Sheffield offer should be taken seriously. They could also be setting up so that after they fail to get him their fans will believe they actually tried.

(c) Machado or his camp. Why would they even be privy to how strong any team's offer is? They can't leak something they don't know.

(d) Scott Boras. The report comes from Heyman, so it's usually safe to assume the source is Boras. But that doesn't make sense here.

I'm thinking it's (a). If I'm the O's, I'm telling the Yankees he's not getting traded until the deadline if not after, but if they want to cut the line and get him before waiver-claim priority becomes a thing they have to include Sheffield. In the meantime, leaking this will tell the other teams that they have to beat a strong offer from the Yankees, and get them to bid up.
   13. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 12, 2018 at 10:00 AM (#5709001)
That would be pointless for the Orioles to trade Machado for Didi. That puts them in the exact same spot in the offseason or at next year's deadline - "what can we get for Didi before he leaves as a free agent.


I had assumed that the meaning was that the Yankees would trade for Machado and then, independently, trade away Didi (perhaps as part of a package for an SP) rather than in the same deal. Or, I guess, a 3-way trade - that would be somewhat appropriate, since isn't that how Didi arrived in the Bronx in the first place? Agreed that Didi makes little sense for Baltimore.

So if the Yankees want Machado long-term, maybe it makes more sense to put him at SS which would make him more amenable to signing with them in the offseason (which would probably necessitate trading Didi), or, if they put him at 3B, to accept that it might hurt his willingness to stay long-term. Or, in fact, Machado doesn't care that much, and sufficient money piled up in front of him will make him happy to play at 3B, 1B, RP, wherever.
   14. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 12, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5709027)
"Strong" offer reminded me of the end of "Raiders of the Lost Ark".

Maj. Eaton: We have top men working on it right now.
Indiana: Who?
Maj. Eaton: Top... men.
   15. bookbook Posted: July 12, 2018 at 11:19 AM (#5709030)
Is Bird worth much? The Os aren’t the savviest team but they need to pretend they are getting back a prospect to build around and win someth8ng eventually...
   16. Zonk is Just the Right Amount of Wrought Posted: July 12, 2018 at 01:42 PM (#5709094)
Is Bird worth much? The Os aren’t the savviest team but they need to pretend they are getting back a prospect to build around and win someth8ng eventually...


I'm increasingly thinking a Machado deal makes no sense for anyone... If I'm the Orioles, I'm going to insist on getting back a marquee package.... as in an MLB-wide top 10 prospect and some other goodies besides. If I'm a team talking with the Orioles, I'm going to say "for half a season? Seriously?"

It seems inevitable that someone is going to blink, I'm sure, but every time I think of scenarios - I find myself taking the side of "too much"/"not enough" depending on which team I consider at the moment.

Everybody loves to pretend they're the GM - but in this case? I don't think I'd really want to be running the Orioles or a team after Machado.
   17. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 12, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5709099)
"Strong" offer reminded me of the end of "Raiders of the Lost Ark".
For some reason in reading the headline I hear it in some sort of insistent foreign accent: "We have made strong offer! STRONG OFFER!!"
   18. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 12, 2018 at 01:52 PM (#5709101)
Is Bird worth much?

To the Orioles? More than but two other teams.
   19. Ziggy's screen name Posted: July 12, 2018 at 01:55 PM (#5709104)
Prediction time:

Machado to the Braves for some of their young pitching. They have oodles of it, and Orioles need it. They're in a tight race. And they could use Manny.
   20. Nasty Nate Posted: July 12, 2018 at 01:57 PM (#5709106)
If I'm the Orioles, I'm going to insist on getting back a marquee package.... as in an MLB-wide top 10 prospect and some other goodies besides.
Why? I can't really envision how the plusses of keeping him for the rest of the year outweigh the plausible trade return.

...unless they are in some top-secret negotiations for a monster extension.
   21. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 12, 2018 at 02:00 PM (#5709107)
I'm increasingly thinking a Machado deal makes no sense for anyone... If I'm the Orioles, I'm going to insist on getting back a marquee package.... as in an MLB-wide top 10 prospect and some other goodies besides. If I'm a team talking with the Orioles, I'm going to say "for half a season? Seriously?"

It seems inevitable that someone is going to blink, I'm sure, but every time I think of scenarios - I find myself taking the side of "too much"/"not enough" depending on which team I consider at the moment.

Everybody loves to pretend they're the GM - but in this case? I don't think I'd really want to be running the Orioles or a team after Machado.


I agree. As a Yankees fan, something like Abreu or Acevedo, Adams, plus a couple of lesser prospects with upside, is about all I'd be willing to pay. But as an O's fan, I'd be very underwhelmed by that return.
   22. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 12, 2018 at 02:00 PM (#5709108)
Is Bird worth much?
Depends - is he in the hand or in the bush?
   23. Nasty Nate Posted: July 12, 2018 at 02:04 PM (#5709109)
But as an O's fan, I'd be very underwhelmed by that return.
I'd be even more underwhelmed by a return of the FA/QO compensation.
   24. Zonk is Just the Right Amount of Wrought Posted: July 12, 2018 at 02:04 PM (#5709110)
Machado to the Braves for some of their young pitching. They have oodles of it, and Orioles need it. They're in a tight race. And they could use Manny.


You know - I could actually see this making more sense. The Braves probably don't need to worry/care as much about investing 10/300 or whatever to keep him after this season - I suspect they're better positioned than most teams to just look at it as a pure rental. And presuming it would be a pitching-centric package, there's enough variance and unpredictability with pitching prospects that I'd be more comfortable parting with such a jewel.

Of course, this would put the pressure on the Orioles to pick the right pitcher - is it Soroka? Allard? Anderson? Wright? Gohara? I'd assume one of the sheen-worn former prospects (Sims, Wisler, Fried) goes along, too.

The tough part is that I'm not even sure there's a consensus on which guy would be the top Braves SP prospect.
   25. Zonk is Just the Right Amount of Wrought Posted: July 12, 2018 at 02:08 PM (#5709112)
Why? I can't really envision how the plusses of keeping him for the rest of the year outweigh the plausible trade return.


Well, the Cubs had a century+ monkey to shed - so maybe their calculation is special, but that's pretty much what Chapman cost.

I agree. As a Yankees fan, something like Abreu or Acevedo, Adams, plus a couple of lesser prospects with upside, is about all I'd be willing to pay. But as an O's fan, I'd be very underwhelmed by that return.


I think it's actually doubly tough for the Yankees because they'd also be under enormous pressure to make sure they extend him - i.e., I think a mid-market team can get away making it pretty clear it would be rental, whereas if the Yankees were to be the destination - I can only imagine what the sports pages, talk radio, etc would be saying if they didn't also go all-in on keeping him.
   26. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 12, 2018 at 02:11 PM (#5709115)
Is Bird worth much?

Kind of depends on whether he's finally gotten through his Nick Johnson phase. The baseball people in the front office and in the booths** are all extremely high on him, but until he puts together a full season or two whose numbers match his talent, he's still going to be in the Show Me stage.

** O'Neill in particular is sometimes critical of Bird, but when he's going with the pitches instead of turning over on the outside pitches in a futile attempt to pull everything, I've seldom heard O'Neill offer greater praises to any young player's swing. And Palmer was raving about him during the entire Orioles series. He's like the little girl with the curl at this point, but I can't imagine the Yankees ever agreeing to trade him.
   27. Nasty Nate Posted: July 12, 2018 at 02:16 PM (#5709119)
Why? I can't really envision how the plusses of keeping him for the rest of the year outweigh the plausible trade return.

Well, the Cubs had a century+ monkey to shed - so maybe their calculation is special, but that's pretty much what Chapman cost.
What?
   28. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: July 12, 2018 at 02:20 PM (#5709123)
Unpopular opinion, but I'd love replacing Didi with Machado in the lineup.


I don't know how that would be unpopular, replacing Didi with Machado in the lineup is a VERY clear upgrade.

It's replacing Didi with Machado in the field that's unpopular.

The defensive metrics don't just think Machado's *bad* at SS this season, they think he's on pace to be *legendarily* bad at SS this season:


The other chief offender is the Orioles’ best player, Manny Machado, who while enjoying his best-ever season at the plate is also en route to the worst defensive season on record. Not just his own worst defensive season—the worst for any player, at any position (positional adjustments aside). Machado has already reached negative-20 DRS this year—that’s the second-worst total at any position in 2018, on a list that also includes Jones and Mancini in the bottom five—and is thus on pace to hit nearly negative-40 for the season. Since 2003, the worst single-season DRS total is negative-33, for Matt Kemp in 2010; only six players have gone even 30 runs under.

At his current pace, Machado will likely finish the season providing six-plus wins of offensive value while taking away two-plus wins on defense. The list of previous players who completed that dual feat includes notoriously bat-rich, glove-poor shortstops Hanley Ramírez and Michael Young and then a coterie of corner sluggers largely uninterested in the demands of defense.


Link

   29. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: July 12, 2018 at 02:20 PM (#5709124)

Machado to the Braves for some of their young pitching. They have oodles of it, and Orioles need it.
The Orioles' offense is miserable.
   30. Zonk is Just the Right Amount of Wrought Posted: July 12, 2018 at 02:20 PM (#5709125)
What?


Ooops, yeah... sorry, inverted the point in my head :-)

I suppose that, especially the new FA comp rules meaning a far lower return, you're right.

Still, the Orioles have fans too... and as much as they might be resigned to Machado being traded, they're going to expect a haul back.

I guess my point is that the PR calculations on both ends get extraordinarily high with a guy the caliber of Machado.
   31. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 12, 2018 at 02:25 PM (#5709127)
Unpopular opinion, but I'd love replacing Didi with Machado in the lineup.

I don't know how that would be unpopular, replacing Didi with Machado in the lineup is a VERY clear upgrade.

It's replacing Didi with Machado in the field that's unpopular.


Right. The only thing that would made sense would be to replace Andujar at third with Machado, which would be an upgrade both offensively and defensively. Of course how to accomplish that neat little trick is kind of above my pay scale. But replacing Didi at short with Machado would result in a much smaller net gain.
   32. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 12, 2018 at 02:25 PM (#5709128)
Why? I can't really envision how the plusses of keeping him for the rest of the year outweigh the plausible trade return.

...unless they are in some top-secret negotiations for a monster extension.


I don't know how true it is but Jon Lester said that one of the reasons he went with the Cubs over the Red Sox after 2014 is that he had experienced life somewhere other than Boston at that point (after the trade to Oakland). If the Orioles think keeping Manny gives them a bit of an inside track on re-signing him then maybe that's something that motivates them to keep him. I suspect it's not much of a selling point but "we kept Robinson for 20+ years, Ripken for 20+ years, you're next" (plus bags of money) maybe tips competing offers in their favor (obviously the offer has to be competitive).
   33. Ziggy's screen name Posted: July 12, 2018 at 02:30 PM (#5709132)
The Orioles' offense is miserable.


Their pitching stinks too.

Austin Riley is the Braves future at 3B. If the O's insisted on offense, a trade-and-sign deal for Riley (plus stuff) might make sense. But it'd be much simpler to ask for Allard or Gohara or somebody.
   34. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 12, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5709136)
I suspect it's not much of a selling point but "we kept Robinson for 20+ years, Ripken for 20+ years, you're next" (plus bags of money) maybe tips competing offers in their favor (obviously the offer has to be competitive).

But the Orioles were among the 2 or 3 best teams in baseball for the last 18 years of Brooksie's career, plus he didn't play in the free agent era until his final years.

And Cal's attachment to the Orioles went back before he even signed his first contract, as his Dad was an Orioles lifer. He also signed his big contract in the season after he won his second MVP award.
   35. Walt Davis Posted: July 12, 2018 at 06:30 PM (#5709245)
OTOH I don't know why Manny would be considered just a rental, since the Yanks are under the luxury tax and would be in a better financial position to sign him than most any other team.

Because all the Yanks can buy from the O's is the last 2 months of Machado's 2018. The Yanks could extend him but they could also wait until after the season to sign him as an FA so there's little reason they should surrender extra money or talent to acquire him. They get a 2-month exclusive negotiating window -- how much is that really worth?

I'd hate to see the Yanks give up Frazier unless they were getting someone like DeGrom in return.

I'm not saying they should (and suggested they probably wouldn't) but the main issue is that Frazier really has nowhere to play now or in the near-future. Stanton is still a plus corner OF, Frazier really isn't a CF, Hicks is still around anyway. He's more valuable to other teams than he is to the Yanks and the Yanks should try to leverage that value soon because he won't have it if he's no more than a 400 PA player next year (mixing DH and LF mostly).

   36. Walt Davis Posted: July 12, 2018 at 06:55 PM (#5709254)
I feel the put-upon Yanks fans are just mildly expressing their disappointment that Didi isn't the new Machado that he looked to be in April. But this is still a consistent 3-3.5 WAR player, 4 WAR per 650 PA per b-r, since coming to NY. Playoff-contending teams almost never trade 3-4 WAR players in-season (Cespedes for Lester is one counter-example).

So Machado over 2 months is maybe a 1-win upgrade over Didi -- hardly worth it. But also who are they trading Didi to and for what? Most of the contenders are set at SS ... and, being contenders, they aren't going to want to trade anybody who would help the Yanks now. Meanwhile Didi is pretty expensive and only one year of control left so no non-contending team is particularly interested in him. You want to swap him to the Dodgers or DBacks for a bullpen arm?

So maybe they can work out some sort of 3-way trade like Didi to the Dodgers/DBacks for some solid but unspectacular prospects then package those prospects with Sheffield (plus) to land deGrom or similar. That's about the only way the Yanks might break even or come out ahead in a deadline Didi trade. (Note that ends up being 1+ years of Didi plus Sheffield plus whatever for deGrom.) I suppose it's possible there's some non-contending team that thinks they'll be ready next year who might swap a reliever or decent SP for Didi now.

I realize Machado is reported to want to play SS. Well, tough luck. If he wanted to force that move, he should have forced well before turning 25. Be great at 3B on a winning team, make the HoF, get paid hundreds of millions while doing it -- you think Manny's gonna turn that down?
   37. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 12, 2018 at 06:57 PM (#5709255)
I'm not saying they should (and suggested they probably wouldn't) but the main issue is that Frazier really has nowhere to play now or in the near-future. Stanton is still a plus corner OF, Frazier really isn't a CF, Hicks is still around anyway.

Brett Gardner has seen far more time in LF than Stanton, who has been the primary (but not exclusive) DH, and Gardner will be a 35-year old free agent in the offseason. Although Gardner has been quite useful - 3rd highest WAR on the team at the moment - they could let him go to free up playing time for Frazier, saving ~ $11M, too.
   38. shoelesjoe Posted: July 12, 2018 at 07:47 PM (#5709291)
The defensive metrics don't just think Machado's *bad* at SS this season, they think he's on pace to be *legendarily* bad at SS this season


So he’d fit right in for the Yankees. They could even name him Captain.
   39. shoelesjoe Posted: July 12, 2018 at 08:01 PM (#5709301)
It’s funny how so often when the Yankees trade highly touted prospects for established players those prospects wind up as complete mediocrities for their new teams. Hopefully the Orioles will discount any “strong offer” from NY by 50% and act accordingly.
   40. Walt Davis Posted: July 12, 2018 at 09:20 PM (#5709332)
By the way, Bird to the O's doesn't make a lot of sense to me. They have little choice but to hope that Davis spends the offseason "retooling" and reports "in the best shape of his life", they still have Trumbo and he's not great but they have Mancini. Basically the last thing the O's need is another defensively limited slugger whose clock is already ticking. Andujar would seem the obvious guy already in the majors they'd be interested in, then they put Beckham back at SS.

That said, I have no particular insights on Bird's future and if baseball insiders really love him then you don't worry about Davis/Trumbo/Mancini. For all I know he's the next Judge ... or at least the next Chris Davis. But here's the shocking news (to me) -- he'll be arb-eligible at the end of the year. That was mostly ML DL time. He's now got about 500 ML PAs and a 100 OPS+ and his not THAT impressive minors performance is now 3 years old and he'll be turning 26. From a projection standpoint, he's not gonna look that promising with a huge amount of uncertainty attached.

Granted, in arb, he won't cost much since he's barely played but 3 years of control of Bird is not worth that much. If you believe in him, great time to get him to agree to a very cheap buy-out, couple of years of FA, options, etc. type deal. Given where he is and the likely small arb award he's looking at for next year, I think you might be able to get him for as little as something like 5/$25 and certainly 5/$35 (I'm thinking 3/6/9/9/9). Is there any GOOD reason at this point to think he'll turn out better than, say, Yonder Alonso, especially given his injury history? Alonso has made $20 so far with another $9 guaranteed and that will be over 8+ years of service time. If you guarantee him something like that, I don't think Bird can afford to turn it down.
   41. Howie Menckel Posted: July 12, 2018 at 09:38 PM (#5709344)
I'd hate to see the Yanks give up Frazier unless they were getting someone like DeGrom in return.

he turns 24 in September and he has an 88 OPS+ in 182 MLB PA as a corner OF.
even the METS aren't that dumb.
   42. rconn23 Posted: July 12, 2018 at 10:49 PM (#5709375)
"he turns 24 in September and he has an 88 OPS+ in 182 MLB PA as a corner OF.
even the METS aren't that dumb."

That's a small sample size and he's only 23. I don't think the Mets will trade DeGrom, and I certainly don't think they'll trade him to the Yankees. However, if they do, Frazier is probably going to be part of that package.
   43. Howie Menckel Posted: July 12, 2018 at 11:13 PM (#5709379)
182 PA is not 18 PA

it's not THAT small a sample size, and "only 23" and 2 months from 24 is not impressing Soto, Acuna, or Albies - among others.

the Mets also have longterm deals with Cespedes and Bruce, plus they have Nimmo and Conforto. but they want Frazier because that's who the Yankees want to dump on them?
   44. rconn23 Posted: July 13, 2018 at 10:27 AM (#5709433)
I mean, if you want to dismiss a guy for that many at bats, be my guest. But there's plenty of players who went on to become stars who struggled in far more of their initial plate appearances. It's an absurd list. Clemente had 77 OPS+ in his first 500 plate appearances. Robin Yount was somewhere in that ballpark.

Frazier would have been the Yankees #2 prospect has he still been eligible. It's not a "dump" and of course other players would be involved in that trade.
   45. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 13, 2018 at 10:43 AM (#5709436)
You can't ask a Mets fan for a worthwhile assessment of talent. They're Mets fans.
   46. Nasty Nate Posted: July 13, 2018 at 12:46 PM (#5709495)
So maybe they can work out some sort of 3-way trade like Didi to the Dodgers/DBacks for some solid but unspectacular prospects then package those prospects with Sheffield (plus) to land deGrom or similar.
He's already been part of two 3-way trades involving the DBacks!
   47. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 13, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5709539)
Unpopular opinion, but I'd love replacing Didi with Machado in the lineup. Didi is a good hitter, a very good defender, but he will always hack away at everything. The fans would revolt, and it will never happen, but Didi at bats are not my favorite.

Just noticed this comment now, and you might want to see Didi's BB/K ratio since he joined the Yanks:

2015: 33 BB / 85 K
2016: 19 / 82
2017: 25 / 70
2018: 33 / 49

Didi admittedly has one of the world's uglier swings, especially when he's trying to pull outside pitches instead of driving the ball to left. But his K rate is the lowest of all the Yankees' regulars, and his BB rate has been steadily climbing. Throw out the 5 weeks when he went into a horrendous funk with an OPS of .359,* and he's been one of the Yanks 3 or 4 most valuable players.

** Since that slump ended on June 9th, his OPS has been .843.
   48. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 13, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5709543)
He's already been part of two 3-way trades involving the DBacks!
As we learned from Seinfeld, once you become the 3-way guy, you can't really go back.
   49. rconn23 Posted: July 13, 2018 at 02:39 PM (#5709561)
Didi admittedly has one of the world's uglier swings, especially when he's trying to pull outside pitches instead of driving the ball to left. But his K rate is the lowest of all the Yankees' regulars, and his BB rate has been steadily climbing. Throw out the 5 weeks when he went into a horrendous funk with an OPS of .359,* and he's been one of the Yanks 3 or 4 most valuable players.


He's having another very fine season and is probably in the (lower) bottom half of Top 10 SS. And I'm always for fewer strikeouts in a lineup that has a lot of him, but he was walking at an unusually high rate when he was on that torrid hot streak. That plate discipline has tapered off quite a bit. I mean, I like Didi, but I'm not sure I want the Yankees to sign him to a long-term deal when his contract is up after next season.

   50. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 13, 2018 at 02:48 PM (#5709568)
Throw out the 5 weeks when he went into a horrendous funk with an OPS of .359,* and he's been one of the Yanks 3 or 4 most valuable players.


Throw out every player's worst five weeks, and everyone would be an All-Star.
   51. Rally Posted: July 13, 2018 at 03:15 PM (#5709584)
Throw out every player's worst five weeks, and everyone would be an All-Star.


Pujols 2017:

Throw out May 31 to July 2 (195/236/297) and we are left with a 253/299/408 season. Ok, almost everybody.
   52. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 13, 2018 at 04:01 PM (#5709617)
Throw out the 5 weeks when he went into a horrendous funk with an OPS of .359,* and he's been one of the Yanks 3 or 4 most valuable players.

Throw out every player's worst five weeks, and everyone would be an All-Star.


I seriously doubt that Pujols is the only exception to that proposition. Maybe you might say that everyone would be an All-Star if you took his best five weeks,** but even that's rather questionable. Try your little exercise on any replacement level or below player, and I doubt if you'd find many All-Stars.

** Just to make sure we're clear about this, in both cases we're talking about five consecutive weeks, not the best or worst five weeks taken from any point in the season.
   53. donlock Posted: July 13, 2018 at 04:05 PM (#5709621)
Cal Ripken and ARod are two ss who ended up at 3b but who can both be part of both this discussion. ARod was a very good defensive ss in Texas but had to give up his position when he was traded to NY, because of the CAPTAIN. Could he have stayed at SS otherwise as he grew physically?

Cal came up as a 3b but Earl Weaver moved him to short and he stayed there for a while (!) At 35 the team finally decide he was too slow and moved him to 3rd. He had a great arm and a good first step but not a great deal of range. Those are better assets at 3rd than SS and in that regard, Manny resembles Cal. Manny, unlike Cal, also had two knee operations in his early career.

Last thought. The Orioles, like most teams are heavily invested in the practice of shifting infielders. Mannyas a 3b has been shifted many times over the last few seasons. Could knowledgeable scouts and coaches see if he could make a good transition to full time SS? Or, is it easier and a bit misleading for infielders to shift and make plays? Their range is usually not an issue as they are placed where the batted ball should go, the opposite of the real game. I assume the poor fielding stats are when Manny is not shifted and is playing with runners on or against an unpredictable batter.
   54. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 13, 2018 at 04:55 PM (#5709648)
Brett Gardner has seen far more time in LF than Stanton, who has been the primary (but not exclusive) DH, and Gardner will be a 35-year old free agent in the offseason. Although Gardner has been quite useful - 3rd highest WAR on the team at the moment - they could let him go to free up playing time for Frazier, saving ~ $11M, too.

Why are Yankee fans always so eager to get rid of Gardner?

Gardner is on pace for another 4-5 win season. That's an incredible bargain at $11M. Why would forego that just to clear room for Frazier?

Get rid of a 4-5 win player, replace him with someone you hope will give you 2-3 WAR, but very well might be around 1 (first MLB season after all), to save $11M, is a terrible idea for a team that plans to contend for a World Series in 2019.
   55. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 13, 2018 at 05:31 PM (#5709663)
Why are Yankee fans always so eager to get rid of Gardner?

That post was in response to the suggestion in #35 that Frazier has "nowhere to play now or in the near future", which also said Stanton was blocking him. I did note that Gardner was currently 3rd on the team in WAR. The Yankees do have a $12.5M option/$2M buyout on Gardner for next season, and it will be a tough call. Frazier's MLB playing time has come in such small segments that is hard to evaluate him, but he has done very well at AAA this season, and he would save ~ $10M in his first year with more ahead until he hits arbitration. Whether that matters may depend on what other moves they make.
   56. Swoboda is freedom Posted: July 13, 2018 at 06:03 PM (#5709669)
Get rid of a 4-5 win player, replace him with someone you hope will give you 2-3 WAR, but very well might be around 1 (first MLB season after all), to save $11M, is a terrible idea for a team that plans to contend for a World Series in 2019.

Because Gardner is 34. He will probably not maintain this next year.
   57. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 14, 2018 at 11:23 AM (#5709851)
That post was in response to the suggestion in #35 that Frazier has "nowhere to play now or in the near future", which also said Stanton was blocking him. I did note that Gardner was currently 3rd on the team in WAR. The Yankees do have a $12.5M option/$2M buyout on Gardner for next season, and it will be a tough call. Frazier's MLB playing time has come in such small segments that is hard to evaluate him, but he has done very well at AAA this season, and he would save ~ $10M in his first year with more ahead until he hits arbitration. Whether that matters may depend on what other moves they make.

I'd say it's not a tough call at all. A guy puts up a 4-5 WAR season, you pick up a $10M option 100% of the time. Frazier can be your 4th OF, and platoon with Gardner. Gardner really can't hit LHP much at all anymore. You can also teach Frazier 1B in the offseason. I don't believe you ever have too many good players.

Because Gardner is 34. He will probably not maintain this next year.

He's been pretty much exactly the same hitter for the last 6 years, and is widely acknowledged by stats and scouts as an excellent LF.

We're not talking about a long term deal. Over 1 season the expected decline for a 34 y.o. is ~0.5 WAR. Which still leaves Gardner's projection 2 or more wins higher than Frazier. A contender should never take a 2+ win downgrade at a position just to save $10M.

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