Sabathia, Pettite, Kuroda and Hughes? That's not too bad.

But Nova still gets one more regular season start, right?

But Nova still gets one more regular season start, right?

Well, the Orioles certainly hope so.

Phelps should have gotten the start last night. Not that it matter, since they couldn't touch Morrow, but he's clearly the better pitcher right now.

It looks like Girardi prioritized getting Phelps ready for his post-season role over giving himself the best chance to win last night. I don't agree with that approach.

Life is just a fantasy, can you live this fantasy life?

But Nova still gets one more regular season start, right?

Unfortunately. Well, maybe. He is currently on pace to start the last game of the season. If that's a must-win game for the Yankees, they might live dangerously and trot out Pettitte on three days rest. Or just Nova a comically short leash.

(It will be interesting to see how the Yankees play that if they need to win that game to win the division outright.)

Unfortunately. Well, maybe. He is currently on pace to start the last game of the season. If that's a must-win game for the Yankees, they might live dangerously and trot out Pettitte on three days rest. Or just Nova a comically short leash.


Isn't Kuroda on turn for Wed? Pitches today, Sat, Sun, Mon, Tues is 4 days.

Nova would be on turn for Tues.

Life is just a fantasy, can you live this fantasy life?

Nice. "Canadian rocker shall not kill Canadian rocker!!"

I am not hopping on the Pettitte bandwagon. We're gonna think he's a #2 based on a few starts, when coming into the year most pegged him for about a 4.0 ERA? I would send him out for a Yankee stadium start and use Kuroda on the road, just for the left/right thing, if it came to that.

(if we small samples, start Andy over CC in game 1. CC's postseason ERA stinks!)

Just a note on the wildcard structure.

Before this year playoff teams had loosely a 1 in 8 chance to win the World Series.

Now, six teams still have that 1 in 8 chance (the division winners), but four teams are wildcards with only a 1 in 16 chance - because you have to win the coin-flip game to get back to that 1 in 8 chance. Each wildcard team's playoff slot is only worth 1/2 of the slot that the division winners occupy. So once the coin-flip games are done we're back to our same 8 slots, each of them being roughly equal, just like before.

So it _is_ a huge dropoff from the division to the wildcard. It almost makes going all out for the wildcard (e.g., by making trades in July and August) not quite worth it.

And it makes going all out for the division worth it.

The problem is when a team goes all out for the division, comes up short, and gets dropped into the coin-flip game against an opponent who has been resting and setting up their pitching rotation because the opponent was too far from their division to go for it.

But I question how much the wildcard is worth, when it only gets your chances from 1 in 30 at the start of the year to 1 in 16. Even though that sounds counter-intuitive because there are 10 "playoff" teams. But not each "playoff" team has an equal share.

Also, how do you play the wildcard game? Start your best pitcher and have all hands on deck like any elimination game? But if you win that would leave you short-staffed for the first series. Make it a bullpen game? I guess you need to start your best pitcher if you can set it up that way.

Isn't Kuroda on turn for Wed? Pitches today, Sat, Sun, Mon, Tues is 4 days

You're correct, I counted days wrong.

So it _is_ a huge dropoff from the division to the wildcard.

I agree, except it is maybe even worse than that. The division winners can "set up" for the normal playoff, while the wild card winners set up for the play in game and are at a disadvantage against the division winner. How big a factor this is depends (obviously) on how often teams really can set up for the playoffs and how important it is to do so.

As to Nova: He was overrated last year, but people couldn't see that, so they're surprised that he's not pitching well.

I will say this: He's one of the most interesting pitchers in recent memory. He markedly increased his K rate from last year, but he seems to have done so at the expense of more hits and home runs.

I will say this: He's one of the most interesting pitchers in recent memory. He markedly increased his K rate from last year, but he seems to have done so at the expense of more hits and home runs.

This is true. In fact, it's really Nova's XBH hit that's up considerably. Last year 32% of his hits were XBH, this year it is 45%, which is an incredible uptick.

How big a factor this is depends (obviously) on how often teams really can set up for the playoffs and how important it is to do so.

Anecdotally, having the rotation set up perfectly (or even just having the best top of the rotation) strikes me as much less of an advantage in practice than we expect it to be. Each year we look at the starting rotations as some big determining factor, but it doesn't seem to me like the results bear this out.

I will also note that it's a pain in the ass to follow the wild card race. An absolute pain, with teams appearing in and out of it as they vie for the division lead. It was bad enough with only 1 wildcard per league, but now it is pretty ridiculous. And determining how many games a team is up on a playoff spot (e.g. the Yankees) is annoying.

Why this type of convoluted race is fun for people to follow, I simply do not know.

Another way to look at it, is that getting a wild card is very much like tying for the Division as pre-2012. If you tied for the division, You had to win a one game playoff, and then you were on the same footing as everyone else.

Tying for the division is a hell of a lot better than being completely out of it.

#16 Don't see it. I've never had the slightest problem with following who's where in the WC. And since we live in a world where there is a flat guarantee that there's going to be a wildcard team, I prefer the current structure (which massively devalues a wildcard spot)

He was overrated last year, but people couldn't see that, so they're surprised that he's not pitching well.

I got quite a bit of crap back in spring training for having the nerve to suggest that it wouldn't be a crime if the Yankees treated Nova like a fungible sixth/seventh starter, and sent him to either the bullpen or the minors. Of course, that was before Pineda had surgery.

The problem is when a team goes all out for the division, comes up short, and gets dropped into the coin-flip game against an opponent who has been resting and setting up their pitching rotation because the opponent was too far from their division to go for it.

Don't worry. They'll "fix" this in the next CBA by adding two more wild card teams. Or something.