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Tuesday, July 09, 2019

Yankees, Red Sox poised to compete for Mets RHP Zack Wheeler | SNY

Zack Wheeler has become a pitcher in high demand, and the Mets have now begun trade talks, according to major league sources. Among the teams who have been in contact are the Yankees and Red Sox, both of whom are interested in Wheeler.

The Braves and Cubs are two other possibilities for Wheeler. According to one source, there is significant interest in Wheeler. A trade is not believed to be close with any one suitor, but the Mets have shifted into a more aggressive sell mode.

Jason Vargas and Todd Frazier are also available. Noah Syndergaard isn’t a total lock to stay, but it is far more likely that the Mets explore trading him again this winter, per sources.

Jim Furtado Posted: July 09, 2019 at 07:52 AM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets, zack wheeler

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   1. Adam Starblind Posted: July 09, 2019 at 12:10 PM (#5860300)
Maybe the Yankees will trade Beltran for him.
   2. rconn23 Posted: July 09, 2019 at 01:26 PM (#5860334)
Do not want. But I'm sure the Mets won't trade him to the Yankees anyway. Not many great pitching options available. Mad Bum, whose cost will probably be prohibitive and is on the decline and Stroman. Hear rumblings about Bauer, but A) he's a massive tool and would be really hard to root for and B) the Indians are in contention for the WC.
   3. Zonk is Back Where He Came From Posted: July 09, 2019 at 02:00 PM (#5860340)
I'm not sure that I particularly get the "high demand" part.... Granted - he's actually outpitching his ERA by a good run (~4.60 to ~3.60) and his peripherals are OK.... but he's a rental with an ERA+ of 86.

Hey - if one has a gaping hole in the rotation, absolutely. But this isn't the "ace on the market".

If the Mets are sellers, then sure - he's probably their best chit so I'd expect them to get a decent-ish prospect for him...
   4. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: July 09, 2019 at 03:46 PM (#5860417)
Wheeler has elite stuff, has pitched very well the past couple seasons, and projects as a top 20 or 25 SP for the remainder of the season.

He'd also be a clear and significant upgrade to the playoff rotation of every contender except maybe the Dodgers. Why is it surprising that teams would want him?
   5. DCA Posted: July 09, 2019 at 04:05 PM (#5860433)
Wheeler has elite stuff,

As a prospect with the Giants, he was considered more of a stats prospect than a scouting goodness prospect, but I haven't watched him since the injury so I'll grant it

has pitched very well the past couple seasons,

Once in the last 5 seasons, you mean. Missed all of 2015 and 2016. Pitched poorly returning in 2017, very well last year, and about average this year

and projects as a top 20 or 25 SP for the remainder of the season.

Suprisingly, by ZIPS rest-of-season projections, this is actually true. He's tied at 1.6 WAR with Morton, Buehler, Greinke, and Jon Gray. I don't understand, those four all seem clearly better to me, and it's not like Wheeler has multiple good seasons before this one to fall back on for projection purposes.
   6. Zonk is Back Where He Came From Posted: July 09, 2019 at 04:22 PM (#5860443)
Suprisingly, by ZIPS rest-of-season projections, this is actually true. He's tied at 1.6 WAR with Morton, Buehler, Greinke, and Jon Gray. I don't understand, those four all seem clearly better to me, and it's not like Wheeler has multiple good seasons before this one to fall back on for projection purposes.


Man... I really need to pay more attention to the AL - because my first reaction was "OK, wait - Charlie Morton?!?!? I'd take Wheeler over Charlie Morton". But... yeah... I guess I'm wrong about that, too :-)

Also - to be clear - I didn't say nobody would want him. I just said that I don't get the high demand stuff. I'd say a B prospect, a lotto ticket, and a spare part is as high I'd go.
   7. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: July 09, 2019 at 04:26 PM (#5860444)
has pitched very well the past couple seasons,

Once in the last 5 seasons, you mean. Missed all of 2015 and 2016. Pitched poorly returning in 2017, very well last year, and about average this year 

Actually, what I meant by saying he's pitched very well the past two seasons is that the sum of his past two seasons is very good.

It was not a comment on how he did or did not pitch prior to that, nor on how he's pitched within smaller subsets within that two year stretch (which, if you're going to be nitpicky, isn't really one very good season and part of one average one. It's 3 months of utter dominance sandwiched between 3 month stretches of averageness).
   8. Captain Supporter Posted: July 09, 2019 at 04:31 PM (#5860447)
As a Yankee fan, I agree with rconn that: 1) I don't really want him (I'm not even sure who he would replace in the rotation (German is the most likely, but that might actually be a downgrade to the rotation although it would provide an intriguing bullpen option); and 2) we won't get him. Brian Cashman always kicks the tires, but he'll decide what Wheeler is worth to the Yankees and make what he thinks is a reasonable offer. The Mets will want a lot more to even consider dealing with the Yankees and the Yankees will say no.

I do think Brodie would be open to dealing with the Yankees, but I doubt the Wilpons would even consider it absent an offer they can't refuse.
   9. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: July 09, 2019 at 04:34 PM (#5860448)
Also - to be clear - I didn't say nobody would want him. I just said that I don't get the high demand stuff. I'd say a B prospect, a lotto ticket, and a spare part is as high I'd go.

Fair enough. I'm hoping for better, and I'd be pretty annoyed if they get worse than that, but it's not unreasonable.
   10. DCA Posted: July 09, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5860457)
Actually, what I meant by saying he's pitched very well the past two seasons is that the sum of his past two seasons is very good.

100 ERA+. Which undersells it a bit, his peripherals are better than that and his UER rate is low. But still, league-average ERA over this season and last.
   11. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: July 09, 2019 at 05:45 PM (#5860465)
It undersells it a lot. The Mets defense has been terrible that whole time, probably the worst in the league. The peripherals are very good. Top 20 in MLB both this year and last by fWAR.
   12. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 09, 2019 at 08:35 PM (#5860488)
A) he's a massive tool and would be really hard to root for


Yet you are happy to root for Chapman? Bauer may be a tool, but in the despicable human being rankings he has a fair way to go to catch Chapman.
   13. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 09, 2019 at 08:39 PM (#5860494)
I don’t see Wheeler as worth a bidding war for his short-term services. Cashman seems to have indicated that he’s not parting with Clint Frazier, or other top prospects, for a so-so 2 month rental, so the Yankees may be out of it if other teams really want Wheeler. Fine by me.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: July 09, 2019 at 08:59 PM (#5860508)
fWAR.

bWAR less kind in this case but still 2.5 WAA (3.9 WAR) last year and average this year is nothing to sneeze at. He does get a big "boost" due to the crappiness of the Mets' defense but that only brings him to an average RA9 this year. The 2019 difference between the two comes down mainly to "sequencing", not the Mets' defense per se. "Sequencing" roughly meaning "what were the outcomes with men on-base vs. not" and for Wheeler 2019, the answer is awful -- 309/369/503 with men on; 221/260/335 empty. Certainly some of that looks like terrible luck (284 BABIP vs 366) but also the K-rate drops from 28% to 22%. You could also put that in game log or QS terms -- when he's been bad, he's been pretty bad with 6 pretty lousy starts.** A bit of the anti-deGrom in that while he certainly has some good starts that led to non-decisions, he's been stuck with just one loss in a good start, his other losses appear to be well-earned. He has "just" one game score over 70 but several in the 60s; 11 QS in 19 starts which is not brilliant but is also not much different than last year.

** Or more precisely, when he's had bad results they've been pretty bad. His defense plays well with nobody on and falls apart with men on?
   15. rconn23 Posted: July 09, 2019 at 09:34 PM (#5860534)

Yet you are happy to root for Chapman? Bauer may be a tool, but in the despicable human being rankings he has a fair way to go to catch Chapman."


I do not like rooting for Chapman. What he did was awful. It does not change the fact that I don't want to add Bauer.
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 09, 2019 at 09:51 PM (#5860545)
I don’t see Wheeler as worth a bidding war for his short-term services. Cashman seems to have indicated that he’s not parting with Clint Frazier, or other top prospects, for a so-so 2 month rental, so the Yankees may be out of it if other teams really want Wheeler. Fine by me.

I wouldn't trade Frazier, and another corner OF makes little sense for the Mets, but I'd trade any other Yankee prospect for Wheeler straight up.

If Florial and a live A ball arm get it done, do it yesterday.
   17. rconn23 Posted: July 09, 2019 at 10:15 PM (#5860567)
"I wouldn't trade Frazier, and another corner OF makes little sense for the Mets, but I'd trade any other Yankee prospect for Wheeler straight up."

I would easily trade Florial, but I'm not trading Deivi Garcia for Wheeler, and I don't think the Yankees would do that either. I don't care how small his frame is or how delicate pitching prospects can be, Garcia has more upside than Wheeler has ever shown. It's a risk worth taking to keep him.
   18. Zonk is Back Where He Came From Posted: July 09, 2019 at 10:17 PM (#5860569)
From what I read of Brodie and the Mets -- maybe you can trade Chapman for Wheeler.

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