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1. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: August 11, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4206453)Not unlike the end of his season with the Braves in 2011. I do not think Lowe has much left, but with that great Yankee offense, maybe he can win some 9-8 games.
halladay has almost 300 innings just to get to 3000. verlander isnt even halfway to 3000 innings.
CC has career 125 era+. even if he gets to 3500 innings decline will most like drag him under 120.
Clemens Maddux Johnson were the last of a breed me thinks.
EDIT: or maybe Johnson's.
Walter or Randy?
Well, there have been only 15 such guys since 1901, 11 since 1920. It's not like they were ever common.
or maybe Mussina's
except..except..Moose's years with the Yankees corresponded EXACTLY to their mini drought of world championships--they won the year before he joined them and won the year after he retired. Silly, of course, but some people take that serious
Yeah, I'm not taking the division for granted. It's a good lead, as good as can be hoped for. But with CC down for a couple of starts at least, it's time to keep an eye on Tampa, and even Baltimore. They've both hung around long enough that they could make a huge push with a good showing while the CC-less Yanks finish with Toronto, and then face the Rangers, Red Sox and White Sox.
Assuming that this is just a two week thing, Sabathia won't miss any starts against Baltimore or Tampa. And of course, the Rays and O's still play each other six more times too. That's going to help the Yankees one way or the other.
I think almost everybody is surprised that he's been able to get to 200 PA (216 to be exact). And 194 of them against RHP, for a nifty .309/.371/.571 line. He's struggled against lefties in the past, but he's pretty much useless against them now, so he hasn't quite turned back the clock. Still makes a long side of a platoon though.
Don Mattingly has the same problem. Well, not exactly, they lost the WS in 81, but didn't get back until the year after Donnie retired, which they won. It's a real shame because despite being a shadow of his former self, Donnie hit the crap out of the ball in his only postseason series.
This was an eye-opener for me. I never knew just how much better Mussina was.
I actually think he has the exact opposite thing going for him. He's the poster boy for my generation. His excellence, tied squarely in with the team's mediocrity (by Yankees' standards) is his legacy. Even his injury-induced decline is somehow poetic.
Well, yes. 300 game winners are (slightly) more common. As I pointed out, there have been only 11 of the latter since 1920, while there have been 12 300 game winners.
Statistically? That's highly up for debate.
Also, I think that we have to separate the question of "Is there a legitimate reason Ron Santo made it and not Dick Allen?" from the question of "Is there a legitimate reason Ron Santo should have made it and not Dick Allen?" While the short answer to both may be a simple "yes," the reasons behind the answer are likely quite different.
It really isn't. Time spent with that big leather thing on the left hand counts.
Also, Santo was a nice guy, and Allen was . . . well, a dick.
Again, that's an argument that Santo deserved to be inducted and Allen doesn't. But I don't believe that it's got much to do with why Santo actually was finally elected and Allen almost certainly never will be.
And I do think that HOF voters do factor in defense a little bit (especially up the middle, but even at the corners). And they certainly understand that a 1B, the position at which Allen played more games and I suspect is generally "considered" to be, has a lot less defensive value than a 3B.
But, just to expand on #32, the main reason Allen has not been inducted is because he was a Milton Bradley-esque crazypants.
Which ones? The BBWAA who summarily dismissed both of these guys? The former vets committes that never came close to electing either one? Or the new committee that finally put Santo in? I agree with the general feeling that defense factors into the voting to some (variable) extent, but I'm just not seeing it as the determining factor in this particular comparison.
How? Under the present rules, he'll never even get on the ballot.
The "present rules" of the HOF are like New Yorker cartoons. They're written in gossamer.
I also think that Allen is and has been viewed as a 1B, and I do agree that it matters. But considering the way that HOF voters have historically treated 3B, I'm not sure it's a disadvantage. ;-)
Ron Santo was on the ballot for 15 years, getting a high of 43%.
1979 was the first year of the 5% rule. Prior to that, it wasn't uncommon for guys to get paltry support on their first few ballots and slowly build support. Check the vote totals for Ralph Kiner, Richie Ashburn, Lew Burdette, Ken Boyer. It took the writers a few years to get the hang of it, and vote for the deserving guys rather than the guys who had been on the ballot longer, thinking they would get to the others in a year or 2. Guys like Santo and Allen, who fell through the cracks during the transition period were re-instated in 1985.
As for Allen falling off a year early, I have no idea, other than maybe since he lost only 1 year before reinstatement, they counted that year against him.
The BBWAA petitioned the Hall of Fame Board of Directors to reconsider the eligibility of Ken Boyer, Curt Flood and Ron Santo with the intention of restoring their names to the 1985 ballot.
As for the difference between Santo and Allen. Beyond the personality issues, number of times they each played more than 150 games in a season, Santo 11 times, Allen 4 times. Don't care what anyone says, that lack of seasonal durability(some of it self inflicted) hurts a player. Yes a Barry Larkin can overcome that, but not others (and I would argue that some of the people who claim they are not voting for McGwire because of the merits are using a little bit of the seasonal durability in their thinking) I think it's a minor factor in Whitakers exclusion(there are other factors, mostly being that the writers are legal retards) and it wouldn't surprise me at all if that is a big factor in the catchers not going in (and also other third baseman)
This was an eye-opener for me. I never knew just how much better Mussina was.
Long time lurker, first time caller has to dispute this from the POV of a Yankee fan.
I think everyone here realizes that Mussina had a better overall career than what Pettitte’s had up to now. But what some people may not be aware of is that for their Yankee careers, they’re like separated-at-birth twins in terms of their rate stats.
Regular season, with Yankees only:
Mussina 123-72, WP .631, ERA+ 114
Pettitte 206-115, WP .642, ERA+ 115
Postseason, with Yankees only:
Mussina 5-7, 3.80 ERA
Pettitte 18-9, 3.79 ERA
Salaries, with Yankees only:
Mussina $109 M for 8 seasons, average $13,625,000
Pettitte $94,904,000 for 14 seasons, average $6,778,857
The bottom line is that Mussina was clearly the better pitcher, but he never demonstrated that superiority while wearing a Yankee uniform. And dollar for dollar, Pettitte has provided far more value to the Yanks than Mussina did, though that can be explained mostly by the years covered by their contracts.
Of course, Mussina pitched entirely during the shitty Yankee defense era, while Pettitte conveniently missed three of the worst defensive teams the Yanks have ever run out there (05 & 06 particularly). Pettitte likely got a lot of defensive support from the late 90s teams and probably a decent amount from the 09-12 teams.
I would guess Pettitte's strength's, including not giving up flyballs and controlling the running game also probably played up on the Yanks as opposed to Mussina's. They had lousy OFers and haven't been good against the run game in what feels like Pettitte's entire career, although I'm probably exaggerating. Mussina's ability to limit BBs and miss a lot of bats obviously helped, but they would have helped every where.
I'm not sure what my point is. Basically, I will look for anything to discredit that fraud Pettitte and prop up Mussina, who was awesome.
Edit: Btw, how about CC Kuroda tonight? He ripped through a hot Texas lineup tonight and his era is 3.06. That's pretty amazing.
I'm not a fan of those type of milestones. Spahn ended his career with 119 era+ after 5200 ip, after 3500 ip he had a 126 era+, and I'm sure with a pi index or just a little time I could find half a dozen more from the post 1920's that the reached that same milestone with an era+ (Carlton was over 120 when he crossed the 4000ip barrier, Niekro, Perry, Glavine, Blylevn etc.)
I just don't think a milestone could be considered a "milestone" if someday in the future it could have "no longer true". When a pitcher reaches 300 wins, he can't ever fall below that number.
Fergie Jenkins through age 35, 3553 IP 120 ERA+
Bert Blyleven's ERA+ didn't drop below 120 until his second to last season. Through first 4700 IP 121 ERA+
But those types of guys all end up makig the HOF anyway. (Although it was a close call for Bert)
I don't expect to see anyone even get over 3500 innings for a while to come. CC and Mark Buehrle maybe. But they both have over 800 innings to go to get there. No lock at all. Buehrle is the better bet among those two. CC is 1000 innings away. Doable if this injury is a blip. But it's an elbow injury. So who knows. Felix, Verlander, and Cain would all have to average 200 innings for the next 10 seasons through 2021 to get to 3500 IP.
It'll happen sooner or later I'm sure...but it's very possible that if Buehrle falters, and CC is hurt, then nobody reaches that innings plateau for another 10 years or more.
Santo's failure with the previous vet's committee was not a failure of his, but of the structure of the committee and the vote. That committee was designed to not elect anyone (though Santo had the best showing). It was revised when the Hall discovered that fact, and Santo made it the first time his age group was eligible.
A quick google search doesn't turn up much on his current whereabouts - there's an SI article from 1999 (the Brandi Chastain issue!) that said he had recently signed on as a roving instructor for the Phillies, but that's now 13 years ago (my god). I don't think it would push him over the top, but if Allen had settled in as a beloved broadcaster a la Santo (Blyleven also went the announcer route) he would have gotten face time which a guy like him needs.
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