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Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Yankees trade Chase Headley, Bryan Mitchell | MLB.com

Finally some action.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 12, 2017 at 01:35 PM | 48 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: chase headley, padres, yankees

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   1. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 12, 2017 at 01:45 PM (#5590894)
Kudos to the Yankees for a salary dump, but WTF is SD doing? Sure Headley has been an average enough 3B, but how much does he have in the tank? I guess they will shuffle out one of their meh infielders for the slightly less meh Headley.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 12, 2017 at 01:50 PM (#5590901)
but WTF is SD doing?

Probably pressure from the MLBPA. Cots only had them at $49.6M in payroll before this, including $20M to players no longer on the team.
   3. JJ1986 Posted: December 12, 2017 at 01:52 PM (#5590903)
Maybe Headley is good friends with Eric Hosmer and they're trying to entice him with this trade.
   4. reech Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:00 PM (#5590909)
Can Jacoby Ellsbury play third base?
   5. Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB) Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:00 PM (#5590910)
And yet Ellsbury remains ...

Sigh.

I wonder if Blash even makes the 40 man roster.
   6. PreservedFish Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:06 PM (#5590913)
Headley is a decent starter. He's not paid much. There's nothing wrong with getting him. Not every bad team wants to lose as many games as possible.
   7. Jim Furtado Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:08 PM (#5590916)
The Padres wanted Mitchell. They essentially bought him from the Yankees.
   8. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:09 PM (#5590917)
And yet Ellsbury remains ..


Would YOU trade for him?

I mean the Yankees are pretty good at this stuff usually so I wouldn't past them to be able to unload him but I can't imagine why any team would absorb that contract.
   9. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:09 PM (#5590918)
The Yankees sent Headley, Bryan Mitchell and $500K for Jabari Blash, a 28-year-old .200 hitting outfielder unlikely to make the team, or even last long in AAA, so it's entirely about salary relief. The big question is whether they now try to re-sign Todd Frazier, who the entire team, including management, seems to have a man-crush on, or go with some combination of Andujar, Wade, Torreyes, & Torrez, with the last 3 also being in the mix for 2nd?
   10. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:12 PM (#5590920)
The Padres wanted Mitchell. They essentially bought him from the Yankees.


Yeah, he has a good arm and was going to be a millstone on the 40-man with so many other arms to be called up this year. I hope he does well in San Diego, he had some bad luck as a Yankee, including suffering a fluke foot injury when he was slotted to break camp with the team in 2016, and getting wacked in the face with a line drive the year before.
   11. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:15 PM (#5590923)
I like this deal for SD. Headley (who is only a teeny bit below average) only has a year left for 13M (plus up to a mil incentives if he's an everyday guy) and, while Mitchell will be 27 this season and isn't super exciting, he's cost controlled and a potential 3/4 starter or plus reliever.

Funny to see Chase going back to SD.
   12. JRVJ Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:15 PM (#5590924)
Seems like a smart trade for both teams (I would not be surprised if Headley ends up somewhere else before long).
   13. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:25 PM (#5590930)
The big question is whether they now try to re-sign Todd Frazier, who the entire team, including management, seems to have a man-crush on, or go with some combination of Andujar, Wade, Torreyes, & Torrez, with the last 3 also being in the mix for 2nd?


He'd be fine on a 1-year deal, but word is his agent is seeking 3. Not sure if the Yankees even want 2, but I'm sure someone will.
   14. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:30 PM (#5590934)
Yes, obviously (to me) good for NYY.
   15. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 12, 2017 at 02:54 PM (#5590960)
Headley is a decent starter. He's not paid much. There's nothing wrong with getting him. Not every bad team wants to lose as many games as possible.


They already have a slew of slightly lesser but younger 3B. Headley might get them an extra win, if he has a good year.
His salary is 13M in 2018. Even in today's MLB, I don't call that "not paid much".
He's not solving a glaring problem, and he makes more than ashtray money. Mitchell is a long shot as a late bloomer.

   16. Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB) Posted: December 12, 2017 at 03:09 PM (#5590986)
Would YOU trade for him?


If it filled a need and the Yankees covered enough of his salary and threw in a sweetener (have to be better than Mitchell, though).

Problem seems to be that Ellsbury seems to have no intention of waiving his NTC, even though he's pretty clearly 5th on the OF depth chart at this point.
   17. Captain Supporter Posted: December 12, 2017 at 03:10 PM (#5590987)
Hopefully, this does not mean Todd Frazier will be signed to a multi-year contract. Adding yet another power hitter is unnecessary, particularly one who already struggles to reach the Mendoza line and is going to be 32 years old in 2018. But the Yankees seem to like his defense and the whole Toddfather shtick is good for marketing, so I am afraid that it might be thumbs down redux.
   18. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: December 12, 2017 at 03:34 PM (#5591015)
If it filled a need and the Yankees covered enough of his salary and threw in a sweetener


But this is the point. From the Yankees perspective what benefit do they get throwing Ellsbury out AND paying his salary. He's not a star but as a 4th or 5th outfielder he is awfully good and between his speed and his defense he's got some use. The only real reason for the Yankees to get rid of him is to save money* and of course paying his contract doesn't do that.

* - relative to the luxury tax. Unlike YR I'm not worried about the Steinbrothers' pocketbooks.

This all assumes that Ellsbury isn't a clubhouse problem or blocking a better player. For example Sandoval seemed to tick both boxes last year with the Red Sox so it made some sense to just get him out of town. You follow the Yankees closer than I so I'll defer to you but I don't get the impression Ellsbury is a problem.
   19. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 12, 2017 at 03:40 PM (#5591028)
Problem seems to be that Ellsbury seems to have no intention of waiving his NTC, even though he's pretty clearly 5th on the OF depth chart at this point.

That could be a problem, but one would think that at some point Ellsbury would opt for playing regularly over being a seldom used 5th outfielder, pinch runner. If the Yankees absorbed all but ~ $5M per year of his contract, he'd be a better option than some teams currently have, assuming he can stay healthy, which is another complicating factor. Ellsbury would be a very expensive 5th outfielder for the Yankees, but given the decreased injury opportunities in that role, he probably would be OK at it.
   20. The Good Face Posted: December 12, 2017 at 03:54 PM (#5591048)
But this is the point. From the Yankees perspective what benefit do they get throwing Ellsbury out AND paying his salary. He's not a star but as a 4th or 5th outfielder he is awfully good and between his speed and his defense he's got some use. The only real reason for the Yankees to get rid of him is to save money* and of course paying his contract doesn't do that.


I understand the Ellsbury hate in the sense that he's injury prone and way overpaid, but even with the missed time due to injuries he's been roughly a league average CF the past 3 years. That's a useful guy to have on your team and the money is essentially a sunk cost. I mean sure, trade him if it would free up money or playing time for a better player, but to hear people talk it's like he's the suckiest suck that ever sucked.
   21. PreservedFish Posted: December 12, 2017 at 04:01 PM (#5591057)
He'd be a starter on the Mets, that's for sure. So would Headley actually. ####. The Mets suck.
   22. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 12, 2017 at 04:06 PM (#5591064)
He creates roster issues, that's the main concern above all else. The Yankees already have 3 starting-caliber outfielders (Gardner, Judge, the new guy) and an excellent defensive 4th outfielder who showed signs of offensive value in 2017 (Big Dick Hicks). At AAA they have a blue chip prospect in Clint Frazier who should be able to play himself into some decent PT if he performs in the minors...but not if there's 5 other healthy outfielders ahead of him for several years.
   23. catomi01 Posted: December 12, 2017 at 04:10 PM (#5591073)
I understand the Ellsbury hate in the sense that he's injury prone and way overpaid, but even with the missed time due to injuries he's been roughly a league average CF the past 3 years. That's a useful guy to have on your team and the money is essentially a sunk cost. I mean sure, trade him if it would free up money or playing time for a better player, but to hear people talk it's like he's the suckiest suck that ever sucked.


They have 4 viable options in CF - Hicks, Gardner, Ellsbury and Clint Frazier. Frazier unproven, but a good prospect and cheap - don't want to trade him. Gardner has been the best all around of the group the last few years, is only signed one more year, and is relatively inexpensive. Hicks had his breakout last year, and the Yankees seem very high on him. He's also the best defender of the group at this point. Given all that, trading Ellsbury is the most attractive if not most feasible option.

Frazier can and maybe should start the year at AAA...but that still leaves 3 guys for CF and backup OF....if the bench is going to be 3 or 4 guys, it doesn't make much sense to carry more than 1 extra OF...so either one they rotate stanton/Gardner and Ellsbury between LF and DH, or they move one of them. The former option works, but Ellsbury is awfully expensive and light hitting to be a LF/DH. If he won't waive the NTC, I think I would rather solve the log jam by capitlizing of Hicks solid year last year or Frazier's prospect status to upgrade elsewhere (pitching as the first priority, or an infielder to cover wherever Torres instead going to be.)
   24. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: December 12, 2017 at 04:17 PM (#5591084)
Hopefully, this does not mean Todd Frazier will be signed to a multi-year contract. Adding yet another power hitter is unnecessary, particularly one who already struggles to reach the Mendoza line and is going to be 32 years old in 2018. But the Yankees seem to like his defense and the whole Toddfather shtick is good for marketing, so I am afraid that it might be thumbs down redux.


Yolmer Sanchez would be a perfect fit on the Yankees IMO. He's the sort of 1-2 WAR super utility guy most really good teams have. I honestly think if you put Yolmer at 3B for 600 PA he'd put up 2-3 WAR. His defense is lights out and he's shown enough improvement with the bat to where he'd be a big asset as a super sub at 3B, 2B and SS.
   25. Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB) Posted: December 12, 2017 at 04:19 PM (#5591088)
Plus there's Billy McKinney and Jake Cave at SWB as well.
   26. The Good Face Posted: December 12, 2017 at 04:57 PM (#5591136)
He creates roster issues, that's the main concern above all else. The Yankees already have 3 starting-caliber outfielders (Gardner, Judge, the new guy) and an excellent defensive 4th outfielder who showed signs of offensive value in 2017 (Big Dick Hicks).


Sure, but between the inevitable Stanton injury and rest/DH days for the other guys, there's room for Ellsbury to contribute. Also, I'm not sold on Hicks. He was really good last year, but he's going to be 28 next year and never demonstrated the ability to hit MLB pitching before 2017. Yes, he's cheap and team controlled and I'd rather have him than Ellsbury, but if he morphs back into 2016 Hicks, he's basically a replacement player.

At AAA they have a blue chip prospect in Clint Frazier who should be able to play himself into some decent PT if he performs in the minors...


Frazier didn't look ready last year. No problem starting him in AAA and seeing how things shake out. Again, I'm fine trading Ellsbury, but he's not a worthless player, even for the Yanks, and it's silly to take a really lousy trade just to open a spot that they don't really need right away. I get the frustration considering his huge paycheck and constant boo-boos, but he's not some kind of useless malingerer, like, say, Carl Pavano. If everybody else is healthy and playing well, he can sit until he's willing to accept a trade, but no need to panic or jump the gun.
   27. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 12, 2017 at 05:42 PM (#5591175)
Sure, but between the inevitable Stanton injury and rest/DH days for the other guys, there's room for Ellsbury to contribute


Counting on Ellsbury to fill in when OTHER players get injured sounds like a bad idea. He’s a PH, late-inning defensive replacement (if healthy)as befits his status as a 5th OF. I don’t like the idea of being so deferential to a 5th outfielder to block Frazier, Jake Cave, whoever could possibly have a career ahead of them. Nobody wants to eat the cost of just cutting Ellsbury completely, but he’s the biggest obstacle to effectively managing playing time on this roster. The Yankees would be better off using that spot for an extra infielder or even a 3rd catcher.
   28. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 12, 2017 at 06:07 PM (#5591189)
Frazier can and maybe should start the year at AAA...but that still leaves 3 guys for CF and backup OF....if the bench is going to be 3 or 4 guys, it doesn't make much sense to carry more than 1 extra OF...so either one they rotate stanton/Gardner and Ellsbury between LF and DH, or they move one of them. The former option works, but Ellsbury is awfully expensive and light hitting to be a LF/DH. If he won't waive the NTC, I think I would rather solve the log jam by capitlizing of Hicks solid year last year or Frazier's prospect status to upgrade elsewhere (pitching as the first priority, or an infielder to cover wherever Torres instead going to be.)

Ellsbury is expensive no matter what. If you pay to dump him, he's still expensive.

The Yankees have 4 spots to fill with their OF, LF, CF, RF, and DH. If you give Sanchez 30 games at DH, that's 618 GS.

Gardner and Ellsbury have hit LHP poorly the last couple of years, you sit one or, more often, both against LHP.

If you give Judge 155, Stanton 150, and Gardner 130 (every RHP and a few LHP), that's 435. Leaving 183. 100 for Hicks and 83 for Ellsbury seems about right to me.

Ellsbury can probably give you 1-1.5 WAR in those starts, plus some late inning defense and pinch running. Meaning he's probably worth $10-12M to the Yankees.

So, some team really needs to take at least $10M p.a. of his contract to make the Yankees motivated sellers.
   29. ptodd Posted: December 12, 2017 at 06:30 PM (#5591208)
That frees up a spot for Machado
   30. ptodd Posted: December 12, 2017 at 06:45 PM (#5591217)
It really comes down to who you trade. Ellsbury or Gardner. Neither will be starting everyday no matter who stays

Ellsbury has a NTC. He will choose where to go and force the team to pick up his option. Yankees will wnd up paying 40-45 million while saving almost as much. They will get little in return. So basically half of Ellsburys current 22 million AAV stays on the books but for 4 years and not 3 years

Gardner has no NTC and can be moved to any team. Only 1 guaranteed year plus an option for 12.5 million. They save more on payroll for 2018! moving Gardner and get a better return. They dont have to spend more to trade him like they would have to do with Ellsbury.

Ellsbury is a better defensive CFer than Gardner and a better base stealer. Not as good a hitter but the Yankees have plenty of them. Ellsbury may be more content to be a bench player than Gardner who is closer to his first FA deal

Also, Gardner would probably be appreciative of a trade somewhere to play everyday. Do it for Gardner.
   31. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 12, 2017 at 07:22 PM (#5591226)
It really comes down to who you trade. Ellsbury or Gardner. Neither will be starting everyday no matter who stays

Ellsbury has a NTC. He will choose where to go and force the team to pick up his option. Yankees will wnd up paying 40-45 million while saving almost as much. They will get little in return. So basically half of Ellsburys current 22 million AAV stays on the books but for 4 years and not 3 years

Gardner has no NTC and can be moved to any team. Only 1 guaranteed year plus an option for 12.5 million. They save more on payroll for 2018! moving Gardner and get a better return. They dont have to spend more to trade him like they would have to do with Ellsbury.

Ellsbury is a better defensive CFer than Gardner and a better base stealer. Not as good a hitter but the Yankees have plenty of them. Ellsbury may be more content to be a bench player than Gardner who is closer to his first FA deal

Also, Gardner would probably be appreciative of a trade somewhere to play everyday. Do it for Gardner.


Man, couldn't disagree more.

Gardner is a MUCH, MUCH, MUCH better player. This is a win now team, and Gardner just put up a 4-5 WAR season. Trading him to clear payroll that they don't need to clear would be idiotic. They're already well under $197M.

Trading Gardner and starting Ellsbury probably costs you at least 2 wins. That could easily be the difference with Boston.

Gardner can still play LF most days when a RH is pitching. Stanton and Judge can each DH 50 games.
   32. Walt Davis Posted: December 12, 2017 at 08:00 PM (#5591235)
They have 4 viable options in CF - Hicks, Gardner, Ellsbury and Clint Frazier

Frazier's not really much of a CF option. He played just 21 games there in 2016 in the minors and none in 2017 at either level. Teeny sample size but both TZ and DRS rated him below-average in LF/RF last year (-4 in 289 innings). Frazier's blocked unless he (Stanton, Judge) DH.

The reasons trading Gardner are somewhat attractive is freeing up playing time, possibly reducing payroll but, most importantly, you can get good stuff back. You trade him to fill a hole in the rotation say.
   33. KronicFatigue Posted: December 12, 2017 at 08:03 PM (#5591238)
Snapper's math in #28 looks about right to me. But I do fear that they'll trade Gardner b/c it's the easier move. I think that's a bad move objectively (again, agreeing with snapper's 31) but also b/c I subjectively like Gardner.

I wouldn't mind seeing Boone being aggressive with Elsbury as a defensive replacement. Even if the Yankees lose a game or two with the Stanton-->Elsbury spot coming up late in the game, it's a nice way to squeeze in some rest for Stanton/Judge and should USUALLY work.
   34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 12, 2017 at 08:06 PM (#5591239)
The reasons trading Gardner are somewhat attractive is freeing up playing time, possibly reducing payroll but, most importantly, you can get good stuff back. You trade him to fill a hole in the rotation say.

Why not just sign Sabathia then? You're not getting a 4 WAR SP for Gardner, and Gardner may well give you 4 WAR.
   35. Blastin Posted: December 12, 2017 at 09:15 PM (#5591265)
I suspect they sign CC and trade Frazier for an SP anyway.
   36. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 12, 2017 at 09:55 PM (#5591293)
I suspect they sign CC and trade Frazier for an SP anyway.

I doubt that. They've got Severino, Tanaka, Gray, Montgomery, and Adams. Plus a bunch of good arms in the minors.

Acquiring two pitchers to push Montgomery out of the rotation is just a mis-use of resources. It's very unlikely the SP they could get for Frazier is any better than Montgomery.
   37. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: December 13, 2017 at 07:38 AM (#5591461)
Snapper's math in #28 looks about right to me.

I think counting on Stanton to play 150 games is wishful thinking. Not counting his 100 game rookie season, he has averaged 127 games a year. If you get 150, then great. But I don't think that is a reasonable expectation, and you shouldn't plan based on best case scenarios.
   38. Bug Selig Posted: December 13, 2017 at 08:26 AM (#5591473)
I think it is also possible that Cashman isn't willing to bank on the 360 PA of good Aaron Hicks being real and the 1300 PA of bad Aaron Hicks being irrelevant.
   39. Brian Posted: December 13, 2017 at 10:04 AM (#5591541)
Stanton may get more games in this year if 50 of them don't involve playing the field.
   40. Nasty Nate Posted: December 13, 2017 at 10:16 AM (#5591549)
If they really want to free up a roster spot and save some money, and he consented, it would make sense to trade whatever portion of the Ellsbury contract that could be moved. Not getting rid of all of the deal and not getting anything back is fine (again, if they want the spot and some savings).
   41. The Good Face Posted: December 13, 2017 at 10:32 AM (#5591563)
Counting on Ellsbury to fill in when OTHER players get injured sounds like a bad idea. He’s a PH, late-inning defensive replacement (if healthy)as befits his status as a 5th OF.


League average CFs are not 5th OFs in any meaningful sense. Ellsbury might be the 5th OF on the Yankees because of their roster construction (although because of injuries and the fact that Hicks is still a question mark he might not be), but that's not really the same thing. I generally agree with 28 on Ellsbury's status and trade value. There's really no need to rush; there are a lot of questions that will likely be answered after the first 50 games and the Yankees can afford to be patient.
   42. PreservedFish Posted: December 13, 2017 at 10:36 AM (#5591572)
If Ellsbury were a FA, what contract would he command? He's a reasonable starter, and clearly worth at least something like 2 years, $30 million. Let's be generous and say 3 years, $50 million.* But he's on the hook for something like 4 years, $90 million.

*My estimates might be horribly off.
   43. The Good Face Posted: December 13, 2017 at 10:47 AM (#5591583)
If Ellsbury were a FA, what contract would he command? He's a solid starter, and clearly worth at least something like 2 years, $30 million. Let's be generous and say 3 years, $50 million.* But he's on the hook for something like 4 years, $90 million.


Assuming that a FA win costs ~$8M and considering Ellsbury's age and injury history, I think 2/$30 is reasonable. Maybe 3/$40M or $45M. He's not garbage, just really overpaid and frustrating to have around because he's hurt a lot.
   44. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 13, 2017 at 11:31 AM (#5591640)
I think it is also possible that Cashman isn't willing to bank on the 360 PA of good Aaron Hicks being real and the 1300 PA of bad Aaron Hicks being irrelevant.

In fairness to Hicks, he seemed to turn the corner in the 2nd half of 2016, putting up good numbers for August & September. When healthy, he's played pretty well since then, and, perhaps importantly, he's a Cashman acquisition (for John Ryan Murphy), so it seems likely the Yankees will give him an opportunity to continue to show that Brian is a genius. I doubt that they keep Ellsbury around, if they have an opportunity to trade him, because they're nervous about Hicks.
   45. SoSH U at work Posted: December 13, 2017 at 11:44 AM (#5591672)
I think counting on Stanton to play 150 games is wishful thinking. Not counting his 100 game rookie season, he has averaged 127 games a year. If you get 150, then great. But I don't think that is a reasonable expectation, and you shouldn't plan based on best case scenarios.


I don't know. I often wonder how many guys are actually injury prone, and how many simply have gotten injured in the past.
   46. PreservedFish Posted: December 13, 2017 at 11:49 AM (#5591679)
Agreed. People here are way too convinced by this "health is a talent" thing.
   47. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 13, 2017 at 12:15 PM (#5591728)
Twins sign free agent Michael Pineda to a 2-year contract: $2M for 2018; $8M for 2019. Coming off Tommy John surgery in July, so the Twins might not get much in 2018, hence the initial low salary. With the Yankees, Pineda always looked like he had better "stuff" than the results produced, so perhaps he eventually puts it all together in Minnesota. TJ surgery was a tough break, but that's not too bad a monetary hit for a 28-year old .500 pitcher - a decent 2019 sets him up for a significant payday.
   48. Harmon "Thread Killer" Microbrew Posted: December 13, 2017 at 12:26 PM (#5591754)
I dunno about forecasting the injury thing but it's not as though his DL stints have only been a result of the HBP.

Big muscular dude missed 91 games over three seasons due to strains to his hamstring, quad and abdomen, plus time later due to groin strain. Now, most of that was three plus seasons ago, but he a) has suffered a wide range of strains and b) been slow to recover from them once they occur.

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