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Wednesday, December 06, 2017

Yankees would be wise to acquire Kyle Schwarber to fill DH role - NY Daily News

Wishcasting.

So how about Dellin Betances and Chance Adams for Schwarber?

Jim Furtado Posted: December 06, 2017 at 08:24 AM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cubs, yankees

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   1. Spahn Insane, stimulus-funded BurlyMan™ Posted: December 06, 2017 at 08:59 AM (#5587063)
So how about Dellin Betances and Chance Adams for Schwarber?

If I'm the Cubs? In a heartbeat.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2017 at 09:08 AM (#5587073)
So how about Dellin Betances and Chance Adams for Schwarber?

That would be monumentally dumb for the Yankees, given they need SP, and already have 5 OF that need PT (Judge, Gardner, Hicks, Ellsbury, Frazier).

I have no idea why the Yankees would be in the DH market. Just rotate those 5 through the 4 spots.
   3. Captain Supporter Posted: December 06, 2017 at 09:39 AM (#5587095)
So how about Dellin Betances and Chance Adams for Schwarber?


Dream on.
   4. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: December 06, 2017 at 09:46 AM (#5587099)
I'd be down with that, too - but mostly because of Adams and my guess is that the Yankees wouldn't trade Adams for Schwarber straight-up at this point.

But if they did - I'd honestly be more interested in Robertson. I know I'm hardly alone, but I've got a bad feeling about Betances going forward.
   5. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 06, 2017 at 11:00 AM (#5587189)
#2, Is Jacoby Ellsbury still someone you worry about getting playing time for? He hasn't been over 100 OPS+ in the last three years.

Will this contract rival Ryan Howard's while acknowledging there was some special kind of stupid in the execution of Howard's? (While he still had 1.5 years left of team control and the team still paid a premium.)
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2017 at 11:08 AM (#5587194)
#2, Is Jacoby Ellsbury still someone you worry about getting playing time for? He hasn't been over 100 OPS+ in the last three years.

He's there. He's on the 25 man roster.

Ellsbury had a 113 wRC+ vs RHP last year. 102 in 2016. Schwarber projects to a 112 wRC+.

Why would I give up real assets to acquire a DH-only hitter who might give me a 120 wRC+, and would clog the roster?
   7. John DiFool2 Posted: December 06, 2017 at 11:39 AM (#5587227)
Why would I give up real assets to acquire a DH-only hitter who might give me a 120 wRC+, and would clog the roster?


Because there's a significant chance he could do what Judge did, and take a big leap forward? [he's one year younger than AJ] And/or be one of those guys who isn't affected by the DH role?
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2017 at 11:44 AM (#5587233)
Because there's a significant chance he could do what Judge did, and take a big leap forward? [he's one year younger than AJ] And/or be one of those guys who isn't affected by the DH role?

I'm not saying he lacks value. But, even a tippy-top DH is worth like 3.0 WAR.

Chance Adams has upside as high, or higher than that, and hasn't burned 2 years of service time. He's the #4 prospect in a loaded system.

More importantly, a full-time DH is a bad roster choice for a team that has an elite offensive catcher, and excess OF.
   9. Boxkutter Posted: December 06, 2017 at 11:51 AM (#5587238)
Why would the Cubs want to deal one of their premier LH bats for a minor leaguer with #3 upside and a reliever who is now arbitration eligible and is going to start getting more expensive than someone of his ilk should be? The Cubs can find a Chance Adams type in their own minor league system (Adbert Alzolay) and you can sign a reliever without having to give up Schwarbs.

Hard pass.
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2017 at 12:14 PM (#5587261)
Why would the Cubs want to deal one of their premier LH bats for a minor leaguer with #3 upside

He's a top-50ish prospect. Why is #3 his upside?

In any case I'll take a good #3 starter over even the best DH in MLB any day of the week.
   11. Ithaca2323 Posted: December 06, 2017 at 12:17 PM (#5587269)
But, even a tippy-top DH is worth like 3.0 WAR.


Eh...that's low, if Edgar/Ortiz are anything to go on.

But, I don't think he hits that level, and the rest, I agree with. The Yankees don't need to employ a full-time DH, given their current roster construction
   12. Nasty Nate Posted: December 06, 2017 at 12:22 PM (#5587278)
Why would the Cubs want to deal one of their premier LH bats for a minor leaguer with #3 upside and a reliever who is now arbitration eligible and is going to start getting more expensive than someone of his ilk should be?
If you use this kind of phrasing, you can argue for/against any side of any trade.

Why would the Cubs trade one of their premier high-upside pitchers for a 1B who was overmatched in his first big-league call up and struck out a ton in the minors?

   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2017 at 12:28 PM (#5587284)
Eh...that's low, if Edgar/Ortiz are anything to go on.


I specifically looked at Ortiz. His last 5 years were 3.0, 3.3, 2.3, 2.9, and 4.5 fWAR. Nelson Cruz has been 1.3, 3.7, 4.8, 4.2, 3.8.

So maybe, the upside is 4.0 WAR. But that's getting pretty rare performance.
   14. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 06, 2017 at 12:30 PM (#5587288)
Betances or Adams by himself would be an overpay.

- Not a Cubs or Yankees fan
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2017 at 12:33 PM (#5587296)
Betances or Adams by himself would be an overpay.

- Not a Cubs or Yankees fan


Disagree on Betances. I'd trade him, and pay his full salary this year, for Scwarber.

He hasn't been an elite RP since May of 2016.
   16. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: December 06, 2017 at 12:43 PM (#5587311)
I am a Cubs fan - and I've pooh-poohed plenty of Yankees prospects for a long time, but I like Adams an awful lot. The K numbers dipped a bit this year, while the BBs went up - but he was quite young for both AA and AAA this year and while the peripherals weren't as gaudy as his first couple seasons, it's hard to say he had anything other than an outstanding year.

I don't think there's any way the Yankees would do it - and I stated above that I remain a Schwarber believer - but if they offered Adams straight up for him, I couldn't agree fast enough.
   17. Boxkutter Posted: December 06, 2017 at 12:45 PM (#5587317)
He's a top-50ish prospect. Why is #3 his upside?

In any case I'll take a good #3 starter over even the best DH in MLB any day of the week.

He may be a Top 50-75 prospect, but it's because of his proximity, not because of his skills. He's seen as a 45-55 FV prospect, depending on where you look. That's league average. If you're only looking at his superficial numbers in the minors and scouting the statline, he may look like a #2, or a dreamt-on ace, but his BABIP is ridiculously low and his FIP and xFIP are much more telling. His walk and strikeout numbers are simply 'meh', so there is nothing there that screams "top of the rotation". His fastball and slider are above average, but his change and curve are both below, and his control is even worse. Without at least a league average third pitch, #3 is his upside.

That being said, you never know when a prospect is going to take a giant step forward with control or find a plus third pitch, but the pitcher than Adams currently is, and his current repertoire, is #3 upside.

Schwarbs isn't without his warts as well, but in Chicago, he's not a DH. He's a LF who can catch in emergency situations as well. Even batting 211 last season with poor defense, he still put up 1.5 WAR because of his power. That was also his first full season in the majors, so he too has time to grow. He's not a finished product. And the Cubs don't have a lot of LH power bats coming up. They do have a lot of mid-rotation upside pitchers though (Alzolay, Lange, Little, etc).
   18. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 06, 2017 at 01:08 PM (#5587364)
Why would the Cubs want to deal one of their premier LH bats for a minor leaguer with #3 upside and a reliever who is now arbitration eligible and is going to start getting more expensive than someone of his ilk should be?


To find some PA for Ohtani.

Other than that, I don't think any team should trade for any hitter to be their full-time DH unless that player has established himself as an elite bat with no defensive value.
   19. Boxkutter Posted: December 06, 2017 at 01:19 PM (#5587380)
To find some PA for Ohtani.

I'm of the belief that he doesn't sign with the Cubs anyways, so I am not adding that into the equation. But they could put Ohtani in RF and more Heyward to CF if this happens. They still have too many hitters though if you have Russell and Baez in the middle infield, you have Zobrist and Happ not playing every day? Okay, with one of them you could make that work by giving someone a day off almost every day and letting Happ or Zobrist play. But with two, that becomes more difficult.

But I have gone on record elsewhere saying that I think Seattle signs Ohtani. I put them at 50% and the other six teams splitting the other half of the percentage pie.
   20. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 06, 2017 at 01:25 PM (#5587390)
But they could put Ohtani in RF and more Heyward to CF if this happens.

Almora's clearly ahead of Heyward on the CF depth chart at this point, right?

Just looking at Marcel's Projection from BBRef: .287/.337/.456 for Almora compared to .257/.328/.389 for Heyward.
   21. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2017 at 01:38 PM (#5587415)
He may be a Top 50-75 prospect, but it's because of his proximity, not because of his skills. He's seen as a 45-55 FV prospect, depending on where you look. That's league average. If you're only looking at his superficial numbers in the minors and scouting the statline, he may look like a #2, or a dreamt-on ace, but his BABIP is ridiculously low and his FIP and xFIP are much more telling. His walk and strikeout numbers are simply 'meh', so there is nothing there that screams "top of the rotation". His fastball and slider are above average, but his change and curve are both below, and his control is even worse. Without at least a league average third pitch, #3 is his upside.

That being said, you never know when a prospect is going to take a giant step forward with control or find a plus third pitch, but the pitcher than Adams currently is, and his current repertoire, is #3 upside.


He throws in the mid-90s and is said to have two plus pitches. He's probably a #3-4 SP right now.

You acknowledge he can develop further and be better than a #3, if one of his other pitches gets better, so #3 can't be his upside.
   22. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 06, 2017 at 01:42 PM (#5587424)

I'm of the belief that he doesn't sign with the Cubs anyways, so I am not adding that into the equation. But they could put Ohtani in RF and more Heyward to CF if this happens. They still have too many hitters though if you have Russell and Baez in the middle infield, you have Zobrist and Happ not playing every day? Okay, with one of them you could make that work by giving someone a day off almost every day and letting Happ or Zobrist play. But with two, that becomes more difficult.


The Cubs have strongly hinted they will move a bat or two this offseason. Somebody is getting traded regardless of the Otani situation. IMO, in the unlikely event Otani becomes a Cub they will definitely move Schwarber.
   23. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: December 06, 2017 at 01:43 PM (#5587427)
Almora's clearly ahead of Heyward on the CF depth chart at this point, right?

Maybe? Cubs also protected Almora quite a bit last year, not playing him much against tough RHP. ALmora's always been seen as an elite defensive prospect, but that hasn't been born out in any of his numbers in the majors yet. Heyward's bat is what it is (and it's terrible), but the elite defense isn't in doubt - thought it's not the same in CF as it is in RF.

Considering the players on hand today, Happ might actually be on top of the CF depth chart.
   24. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 06, 2017 at 01:47 PM (#5587434)
.
   25. The Good Face Posted: December 06, 2017 at 02:32 PM (#5587498)
Schwarbs isn't without his warts as well, but in Chicago, he's not a DH. He's a LF who can catch in emergency situations as well. Even batting 211 last season with poor defense, he still put up 1.5 WAR because of his power. That was also his first full season in the majors, so he too has time to grow. He's not a finished product.


A poor man's Joey Gallo who's also a year older and can only play LF. Badly.

Meh.
   26. Walt Davis Posted: December 06, 2017 at 02:49 PM (#5587517)
Joe: Happ? Who's Happ? We don't have anybody named Happ on the roster.

I started on the "Cubs don't have PT for Ohtani" but I forgot about Jay who is an FA and had over 400 PA last year. Those PA could be fairly easily spread among Almora, Happ, Zobrist or we could give most of them to Ohtani without doing much different than last year and with no need to trade anybody. (In a convoluted way, some of Jay's PAs go to Russell who missed injury time. His injury gave more SS PT to Baez which gave more 2B time to Zobrist which gave more OF time to Jay and others.)

Off-topic I know but the Cubs' main PT question is Zobrist. Obviously it's a question of whom they might be traded for (and other roster moves) but the immediate impact of trading Schwarber or Happ is that the Cubs will need Zobrist to be 2016 Zobrist.
   27. Boxkutter Posted: December 06, 2017 at 03:52 PM (#5587570)
He throws in the mid-90s and is said to have two plus pitches. He's probably a #3-4 SP right now.

You acknowledge he can develop further and be better than a #3, if one of his other pitches gets better, so #3 can't be his upside.

There's a word for pitchers with two plus pitches and poor control: Reliever

#3 is his current upside with the skillset he has. Of course he could develop other skills and become more, but we need to be realistic and temper expectations. Ozzie Albies could also develop 30 homer power and Joey Gallo could develop a 50 Hit Tool. Josh Staumont could all of a sudden develop 50 Control and become an ace. Just because things are possible, doesn't mean they are likely. Now, Adams developing a third pitch or better-than-league-average Control may be more plausible, but you still have to dream on him developing a skill he doesn't currently have.
   28. ??'s Biggest Fan! Posted: December 06, 2017 at 04:03 PM (#5587587)
A poor man's Joey Gallo who's also a year older and can only play LF. Badly.

Meh.


Wasn't Kyle Schwarber the "Next Babe Ruth" before Ohtani? That's a severe downgrade. The Yankees don't need a full time DH. They have enough guys on their roster that need to get a day off from the field to get a sizable amount of ABs in 162 games for that spot in the lineup. John Harper has nothing to write about on the Yankees and thought this would generate clicks. For all the talk about the media in NYC, we have a lot of lazy and unimaginative writers in the dailies.
   29. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 06, 2017 at 04:46 PM (#5587624)
#2, Is Jacoby Ellsbury still someone you worry about getting playing time for? He hasn't been over 100 OPS+ in the last three years.

He's there. He's on the 25 man roster.

Ellsbury had a 113 wRC+ vs RHP last year. 102 in 2016. Schwarber projects to a 112 wRC+.

Why would I give up real assets to acquire a DH-only hitter who might give me a 120 wRC+, and would clog the roster?


I wasn't suggesting that they trade for Schwarber. I question whether you worry about PT for Ellsbury or just give him the crumbs. I don't think you worry about getting a declined vet PT.
   30. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2017 at 05:07 PM (#5587640)
I wasn't suggesting that they trade for Schwarber. I question whether you worry about PT for Ellsbury or just give him the crumbs. I don't think you worry about getting a declined vet PT.

I'm not worried so much as, acknowledging he's there, he's a sunk cost, so you have to measure any acquisition's value vs. what he can provide.

If I have 400 PA left at DH (after giving time to Sanchez, and other players when they need a rest), my actual replacement level for thos PAs is Ellsbury. So, I'm weighing any alternatives in term of Wins Above Ellsbury.
   31. madvillain Posted: December 06, 2017 at 05:20 PM (#5587648)
Eh, who knows. Too much speculation in my original post.
   32. Nero Wolfe, Indeed Posted: December 06, 2017 at 05:35 PM (#5587662)
The Yankees already have a big-hit, no-field player in their lineup. He plays catcher. Why do they need a second one?

Oh, yeah.....it's 20 minutes before deadline at the Daily News and there's a hole in the sports page. That's why.
   33. Walt Davis Posted: December 06, 2017 at 07:31 PM (#5587734)
If there's an odd-person out in the Yanks' OF, it should probably be Hicks. He hadn't achieved anything before last year and he was back to being lousy when he cam back from injury (218/319/396). The Yanks tried to get him ready again for the playoffs where he was both good and terrible. Hicks hits LHP better than RHP and, even for his career, hits them better than Ellsbury so the sensible starting plan IMO is a CF platoon of those two with Hicks as handy 4th OF the rest of the time. At least if we're going with a 5 guys plus some Sanchez for 4 slots approach.

I agree that about the last thing the Yanks need to add to this mix is Schwarber. Their biggest positional need is probably a short-term solution at 3B or, if they really are down on his defense, a starting C (which then does make OF PT hard to manage).
   34. Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB) Posted: December 06, 2017 at 07:48 PM (#5587745)
if they really are down on his defense


They aren't, next ...
   35. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2017 at 09:11 PM (#5587766)
The Yankees already have a big-hit, no-field player in their lineup. He plays catcher. Why do they need a second one?

or, if they really are down on his defense, a starting C (which then does make OF PT hard to manage).

This stuff is crazy. The metrics show Sanchez is an above average defensive C. Plus arm, plus framing, minus blocking, but solidly above average.
   36. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 06, 2017 at 10:09 PM (#5587785)
I conflated Brett Gardner and Ellsbury in my mind. I was thinking Ellsbury was a corner OF any more. As a CF, he is still quite useful and should be in the Yankees OF rotation.
   37. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2017 at 10:53 PM (#5587807)
I conflated Brett Gardner and Ellsbury in my mind. I was thinking Ellsbury was a corner OF any more. As a CF, he is still quite useful and should be in the Yankees OF rotation.

Both can play CF. As can Hicks.
   38. Walt Davis Posted: December 07, 2017 at 02:46 AM (#5587834)
This stuff is crazy.

Which "stuff." As you know, there have been articles about Sanchez's questionable defense, claims the Yanks are concerned, etc. Therefore a clause "IF THEY ARE DOWN ON HIS DEFENSE" seems pretty un-crazy to me seeing as how it makes no claims that they are down on his defense but simply caters for that possibility ... but then I wrote it so I may not be an impartial observer.

As I am "on record" that surely any team that could tolerate Posada for a decade would be silly to be that concerned with Sanchez's defense, I'm not even of the opinion that the Yanks should be concerned. But I can't read Aaron F'ing Boone's mind ... nor do I know how heavy Sanchez's feet are! (You have to be in Gonfalon Cubs to have any hope at getting that reference.)
   39. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 07, 2017 at 05:19 AM (#5587841)
Aside from the defensive-wizard young catchers (e.g., Pudge back in the day or Vazquez more recently), doesn't pretty much every young catcher get saddled with being a work-in-progress defensively when they first get to the majors? I remember there being real questions about whether Posey could stick behind the plate when he first came up and now he's one of the top defensive catchers in the league (he actually spent his first half season at 1B, until the Giants felt comfortable enough with him to trade Bengie Molina in a midseason trade).

Just stick Sanchez behind the dish for 120 games (health permitting) in 2018 and see what he can do.

   40. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 07, 2017 at 10:32 AM (#5587899)
Which "stuff."

Two consecutive posts questioning Sanchez's defense. There's zero actual evidence he's an even below average catcher.

He's been criticized by the team for one aspect of his game, and aspect that he's legitimately not good at. But, all the evidence is that, in aggregate, he's above average.
   41. Walt Davis Posted: December 07, 2017 at 02:12 PM (#5588115)
Again, reading comprehension ... my post doesn't "question his defense", it simply says IF the Yanks are down on his defense (as has been reported as you note) THEN ...
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 07, 2017 at 02:17 PM (#5588121)
Again, reading comprehension ... my post doesn't "question his defense", it simply says IF the Yanks are down on his defense (as has been reported as you note) THEN ...

You suggest that a team with one of the best 2 catchers in baseball might be looking for a staring catcher. That clearly implies that there's something wrong with his defense.

About the last thing anyone, looking at the Yankees fairly, would saty they need is a starting catcher. If I wrote, "If the Angels are down on Trout's defense, they might be in the market for a CF." it would be non-sensical unless I thought there was something wrong with Trout's D.
   43. Howie Menckel Posted: December 07, 2017 at 04:41 PM (#5588293)
Sanchez may single-handedly change the rule to limit C trips to the mound. I haven't heard anyone say they admire his, uh, diligence. something a little off about him in that respect.

that said, Girardi didn't help the cause and Sanchez needs a good mentor next spring - especially because he doesn't appear hopeless all over on defense, as noted. Boone is far more likely to have a positive pre-spring training chat with him. and with power, steady as she goes.
   44. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 07, 2017 at 06:45 PM (#5588369)
Sanchez may single-handedly change the rule to limit C trips to the mound


Hey, it'll help his Keltner test score.

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