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Friday, June 20, 2014

Yasmani Tomas defects from Cuba

Cuban authorities say hard-hitting outfielder Yasmani Tomas has defected, multiple media outlets reported Friday.
...
Tomas went 6-for-16 during the WBC with two homers, one double and four strikeouts.

According to official statistics, Tomas hit .275 for Industriales last season with 10 home runs and 59 RBIs in the 90-game regular season and seven playoff games.

He dipped to six home runs while hitting .290 in 257 plate appearances for Industriales this season, but a source told Baseball America that may have been because of an arm injury suffered while crashing into an outfield wall.

10 HR in 90 games is a pace of 18 in 162 games. That doesn’t sound all that hard hitting to me.

Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: June 20, 2014 at 01:20 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cuban baseball

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   1. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: June 20, 2014 at 01:50 PM (#4731630)
So, how big a contract is this guy going to get?
   2. bfan Posted: June 20, 2014 at 02:36 PM (#4731674)
Maybe hard hitting referred to the wall he ran into.
   3. Der-K is at half whelm. Posted: June 20, 2014 at 03:26 PM (#4731714)
He's pretty hard hitting - been described as having 70 power. Bulky dude, 6-1 230 with decent mobility and a plus arm, big uppercut, trouble with stuff that moves and has put up pretty bad k/w ratios in a places where that's hard to do as a hitter. His stats look like a guy who can hit 20 HR a year right now (he's 23), but maybe not get on base enough to be worth your while.

Not subject to int'l spending restrictions, so expect a decent sized big league contract and initial high minors placement.
   4. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: June 20, 2014 at 03:43 PM (#4731751)
Bulky dude, 6-1 230 with decent mobility and a plus arm, big uppercut, trouble with stuff that moves

"fuck you, Jobu, I do it myself!"
   5. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: June 20, 2014 at 05:27 PM (#4731903)
Based on #3 he sounds like a borderline nonprospect to me.
   6. JRVJ Posted: June 20, 2014 at 09:30 PM (#4732023)
Tomas is an asset.

As such, any team above the Tampa payroll level should be in on him. However, I don't think that he should be getting Abreu level money (something between Céspedes and Puig seems right, but markets can be irrational).
   7. Joe Kehoskie Posted: June 20, 2014 at 09:35 PM (#4732026)
As such, any team above the Tampa payroll level should be in on him. However, I don't think that he should be getting Abreu level money (something between Céspedes and Puig seems right, but markets can be irrational).

I like Tomas, but no way I'd give him either Cespedes or Puig money. (Cespedes is actually the higher-paid of the two in terms of AAV.) He seems to have regressed in a league that, after hundreds of defections, is no better than A-ball now.
   8. GregD Posted: June 20, 2014 at 09:45 PM (#4732033)
I like Tomas, but no way I'd give him either Cespedes or Puig money. (Cespedes is actually the higher-paid of the two in terms of AAV.) He seems to have regressed in a league that, after hundreds of defections, is no better than A-ball now.
Thanks, Joe. What would you think is reasonable for him in terms of $ and in terms of placement? Are you saying he'd slot as a single A player right now?
   9. JRVJ Posted: June 20, 2014 at 10:21 PM (#4732043)
Joe,

Thing is, I think the market has been set by Céspedes, Puig and Abreu.

Tomas' agents will certainly argue that.
   10. BDC Posted: June 20, 2014 at 10:24 PM (#4732046)
I thought the headline said "defects from Cubs" and who could blame him.
   11. Ziggy Posted: June 20, 2014 at 11:01 PM (#4732068)
It doesn't matter what Tomas' agent argues, it matters how much marginal revenue teams think he'll bring to them. (Better: how much expected marginal revenue they think he'll generate.) And, of course, how much they think other teams think he'll generate for those teams.
   12. JRVJ Posted: June 21, 2014 at 08:46 AM (#4732139)
OF COURSE it matters. This is almost certainly going to be a seller's market (there's only one Tomas out there), and quite a number of teams which are flush with cash have few other ways to use it without getting penalized in the draft or free agency.
   13. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: June 21, 2014 at 10:22 AM (#4732155)
The hed was more interesting when I read it as "defects from Cubs."
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 21, 2014 at 10:41 AM (#4732160)
there's only one Tomas out there

Which doesn't matter if there's no one particularly interested in owning a Tomas.

Scarcity alone does not equal value.
   15. JRVJ Posted: June 21, 2014 at 10:48 AM (#4732162)
Snapper, do you really want to bet that nobody is going to be particularly interested in owning a Tomas?

(I get your general point, which of course, is valid in the abstract).
   16. Ziggy Posted: June 21, 2014 at 11:52 AM (#4732186)
If they think that they would need to pay more for Tomas than he's expected to make for them, they'll just keep their cash.
   17. JRVJ Posted: June 21, 2014 at 12:27 PM (#4732196)
Ziggy do you REALLY think that nobody will pay Tomas a goood chunk of money.

Think of the Phillies: don't you think THEY will be willing to add some young talent with their farm system as it is? Look at what they were willing to pay Miguel Angel González.

Think of the Tigers and what they pay players: do you really think that they wouldn't roll the dice to add young talent to their franchise?

Or the Yankees? (who had no draft picks in this year's draft). Or the Mariners? (who have lots of trouble getting FAs to play in Seattle).
   18. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: June 21, 2014 at 01:04 PM (#4732214)
Aledmys Diaz put up better numbers in the Cuban League than Tomas and only got $8m total for four years. And Diaz had more defensive flexibility.
   19. JRVJ Posted: June 21, 2014 at 01:31 PM (#4732227)
18, Diaz probably won't be able to play SS in the bigs.

But in any case, do you really think Tomas is going to get $8MM total for 4 years?

I will take that bet if you're making it.
   20. GregD Posted: June 21, 2014 at 08:22 PM (#4732518)
Or the Yankees? (who had no draft picks in this year's draft).


???
   21. Walt Davis Posted: June 22, 2014 at 10:48 PM (#4733221)
The question is where do teams think Tomas's potential ranks relative to those other players. I don't have a clue but am guessing he's not as highly regarded as Cespedes, Puig, Abreu. If so, we'd expect less money.

Anyway, I think the point is that those three have set the market for highly talented, young, pseudo-FAs. Tomas is only in that market if he's (perceived as) that highly talented.

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