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Monday, November 25, 2013

Yellon: Cubs Rumors: Blue Jays After Jeff Samardzija

Levine tweet:

Teams have inquired about StarterJeff Samardzija. Source: Toronto putting together package of young players.

McCoy Posted: November 25, 2013 at 10:32 AM | 35 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: blue jays, cubs, rumors, trades

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   1. McCoy Posted: November 25, 2013 at 11:20 AM (#4605640)
Cubs 2014 slogan: Building a better tomorrow, tomorrow.
   2. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 25, 2013 at 11:40 AM (#4605651)
I see how trading Samardzija might make sense (but I'm skeptical) if they don't think a reasonable extension can be done. The problem is that I think he's the kind of pitcher who is particularly likely to be undervalued by the market due to his streakiness. On top of that, isn't the Jays system kind of weak? I think most every team has a psychological barrier to trading any of their top 3 or so prospects and Samardzija is not the star quality player to overcome that. So what kind of package would the Jays realistically put together?
   3. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: November 25, 2013 at 11:45 AM (#4605654)
I don't like the idea of trading him, but can't get myself too worked up to care one way or the other. I think there's fair arguments for and against trading him, and also far and against getting him a big extension.
   4. snowles Posted: November 25, 2013 at 11:50 AM (#4605656)
#2: I could see a package built around Anthony Gose and Sean Nolin working, though it would be selling low on Gose. I could see perhaps a JA Happ player, or a reliever (Esmil Rogers might be interesting) being included on the Jays side and a lower level prospect on the Cubs side, though I know squat about their farm.
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 25, 2013 at 12:10 PM (#4605667)
This has a chance to work out better than the Josh Johnson/Mark Buerhle trade.
   6. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 25, 2013 at 12:25 PM (#4605678)
I'm guessing Marcus Stroman or Aaron Sanchez would be involved. Gose doesn't seem like a Wrigley Field kind of player.
   7. Greg K Posted: November 25, 2013 at 01:05 PM (#4605725)
I think Sanchez I could live with. As long as Gose or Stroman aren't involved this might not be a bad idea for the Jays.
   8. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 25, 2013 at 01:18 PM (#4605732)
I don't think Stroman is going anywhere. I have to believe he's the great young pitching hope they DON'T want to trade.
   9. formerly dp Posted: November 25, 2013 at 01:25 PM (#4605740)
I don't really have a sense of where the Jays are at after things cratered so badly in 2013-- should they be making this sort of deal, signing FA starters, sacrificing youth for the present? They have too many good pieces in place and have come too far down this path to blow things up and rebuild again, but if they keep dealing prospects, they're going to be in trouble for some time.
   10. PreservedFish Posted: November 25, 2013 at 01:27 PM (#4605743)
Is Anthony Gose still a prospect of any standing? Seems like a throw-in at this point.
   11. zonk Posted: November 25, 2013 at 01:34 PM (#4605749)
Dealing samardzija now doesn't make a lot of sense... I think there were some 2nd half rotation mirages... I guess the Cubs do have a gaggle of last to 2nd to last chances guys (Grimm, Rusin, Arrieta, maybe Bard?) that need 15 starts or so... I don't really care so much for Jeff - any extension will be an overpay, I think - I just don't see any rush to move him.
   12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 25, 2013 at 01:48 PM (#4605759)
I don't really have a sense of where the Jays are at after things cratered so badly in 2013-- should they be making this sort of deal, signing FA starters, sacrificing youth for the present? They have too many good pieces in place and have come too far down this path to blow things up and rebuild again, but if they keep dealing prospects, they're going to be in trouble for some time.


Seems like they should be going the FA route. I thought they were committed to spending more next year. Why give up prospects when you can buy talent?
   13. formerly dp Posted: November 25, 2013 at 01:57 PM (#4605771)
Why give up prospects when you can buy talent?
Agreed. Lots of wildcards on that roster going into 2014, hard to know what to expect out of this team.
   14. RJ in TO Posted: November 25, 2013 at 02:12 PM (#4605788)
I don't really have a sense of where the Jays are at after things cratered so badly in 2013-- should they be making this sort of deal, signing FA starters, sacrificing youth for the present? They have too many good pieces in place and have come too far down this path to blow things up and rebuild again, but if they keep dealing prospects, they're going to be in trouble for some time.


They've already traded enough young prospects to ensure they're going to be in trouble for some time, so they may as well trade the rest of them and go for it now.

Besides, there's no way this coming season can turn into as much of a ####-show as last season, right? Right?

Oh please let this be right.
   15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 25, 2013 at 02:15 PM (#4605790)

Agreed. Lots of wildcards on that roster going into 2014, hard to know what to expect out of this team.


And considering the mess of starters they trotted out their last year when guys went down, seems like you'd want some depth stashed away just in case.

I mean, it makes sense to trade prospects for young talent you can't get on the FA market. Like say, Giancarlo Stanton. But aren't there lots of pitchers on the FA market you could get that can give you what Samadzija can do?
   16. RJ in TO Posted: November 25, 2013 at 02:35 PM (#4605805)
But aren't there lots of pitchers on the FA market you could get that can give you what Samadzija can do?


Most of those pitchers will cost a lot more money. After all, Vargas just nailed down a four year deal at $8M a year, and he's nothing special at all. You've also got guys like Santana and Nolasco hunting for $15M+ a season on long term deals. Samardzija may cost you talent, but he's unlikely to be that costly in salary.

This should not be taken as a defense of the proposed deal - Samardzija always seems like he's ready to implode.
   17. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 25, 2013 at 02:45 PM (#4605813)
Sure, but my point is if I'm the Jays, I'd rather give up money than talent.
   18. RJ in TO Posted: November 25, 2013 at 03:40 PM (#4605851)
Sure, but my point is if I'm the Jays, I'd rather give up money than talent.

The Jays have already spent a goodly amount of money, and are now looking to limit further spending. As a result, they're looking to swap talent to avoid spending too much more money. I'd also rather they give up money than talent, but they don't seem to agree with me.

Also, there seem to be issues with the Jays attempting to recruit the higher profile free agents in that, unless they significantly overpay, many of the free agents would rather stay in the US.
   19. Greg K Posted: November 25, 2013 at 03:45 PM (#4605853)
The Jays have already spent a goodly amount of money, and are now looking to limit further spending. As a result, they're looking to swap talent to avoid spending too much more money. I'd also rather they give up money than talent, but they don't seem to agree with me.

As referenced in your earlier post, money rather than talent is a good philosophy, but in real terms it becomes how much money and how much talent? Depending on what this mystery package is, would you rather give a guy like Vargas 30+ million, or trade some B-, C prospects? Of course, I think I read the Jays are in on Nolasco as well, so maybe it's a matter of giving up money and talent.
   20. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: November 25, 2013 at 03:50 PM (#4605856)
The Blue Jays have an absolute garbage minor league system right now.

Unless they go OOTP style, and just trade 27 D prospects until the Cubs finally say "Okay," I don't see how this gets done.
   21. Al Kaline Trio Posted: November 25, 2013 at 03:56 PM (#4605861)
You've also got guys like Santana and Nolasco hunting for $15M+ a season


(My thought process)
Johan? No way! Oh Ervin, hmm I can't get used to him being any good. I think he might get a bad contract somewhere.
   22. Greg K Posted: November 25, 2013 at 04:02 PM (#4605865)
The Jays could go for minor league deals with Johan Santana, Mark Prior, and talk Chris Carpenter out of retirement. Odds are one of those guys could last until March 15th with an arm intact.
   23. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 25, 2013 at 04:09 PM (#4605867)
I feel like the Jays got incredibly unlucky last season, and would be wise not to give up on the idea that they should be going for it in the next few years.
   24. formerly dp Posted: November 25, 2013 at 04:12 PM (#4605871)
Besides, there's no way this coming season can turn into as much of a ####-show as last season, right? Right?
Bookmarked.

What's the projected rotation as of right now? Dickey, Morrow, Buerhle...Happ? Rogers? Dustin McGowan and a cybernetic arm?
   25. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 25, 2013 at 04:16 PM (#4605873)
The Jays have already spent a goodly amount of money, and are now looking to limit further spending


I'm sure you know better than I, but this suggests they'll increase spending in 2014.
   26. zonk Posted: November 25, 2013 at 04:21 PM (#4605875)
One thing I do think Samardzija has in his favor -- the combination of his college football career and an extended look in the bullpen means that the mileage on his arm and shoulder ought to be rather low for a 28 yo... It's only the last 2 years that he's really put up any large number of innings and he's been pretty healthy in doing so. He does have a nice K rate (214 Ks last year) and a decent enough walk rate -- without being too gopher prone. In fact, I would argue that looking at his peripherals, (214 Ks, 78 BBs, 25 HRs - you might be a little surprised that his overall numbers weren't a little better).

I'm more curious to see what Thed believe they can get for him than anything else... He's got another year of team control, so I do hope that they're not in any rush to move him.
   27. Spahn Insane Posted: November 25, 2013 at 04:39 PM (#4605885)
I have a feeling the Cubs won't be getting equal value if they trade Samardzija now. He may continue to be inconsistent, but I think he's a pretty good breakout candidate, for the reasons zonk said (relatively low mileage, good peripherals, good health history, a good number of dominant starts). The Jays don't seem to be a particularly good trading partner, if their system's as week as others say.
   28. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 25, 2013 at 04:40 PM (#4605887)
The Jays could go for minor league deals with Johan Santana, Mark Prior, and talk Chris Carpenter out of retirement. Odds are one of those guys could last until March 15th with an arm intact.


I'm hoping they'll take a flyer on Halladay with a nice incentive-laden contract.
That's more of the "fan" side of me than the "numbers" one.
   29. Good cripple hitter Posted: November 25, 2013 at 04:43 PM (#4605889)
I'm hoping they'll take a flyer on Halladay with a nice incentive-laden contract.
That's more of the "fan" side of me than the "numbers" one.


I'm probably the only Jay fan who hopes Roy doesn't come back. I mean, ideally he'd come back, win a Cy Young and lead the Jays to the World Series. But I don't think that'll happen and I don't want to have to watch a repeat of Pat Hentgen's 2004 stint with the team, only with a pitcher I liked a lot more.
   30. bfan Posted: November 25, 2013 at 06:18 PM (#4605928)
Amazing, but Samardzija was NOT much of a strike-out pitcher at Notre Dame. My natural assumption is that K rates would go down for a player from college to pros, but his have gone up. Maybe its the year round baseball training he undertakes, now?
   31. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: November 25, 2013 at 06:26 PM (#4605931)
Maybe its the year round baseball training he undertakes, now?


He probably added a pitch (or two) to his repertoire.
   32. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 25, 2013 at 06:47 PM (#4605940)
The Jays could go for minor league deals with Johan Santana, Mark Prior, and talk Chris Carpenter out of retirement. Odds are one of those guys could last until March 15th with an arm intact.

I like this idea. All their young and healthy pitchers get injured as soon as they step on the mound, so logically they should be able to get 200-inning seasons out of old guys with chronic ailments.
   33. Paul D(uda) Posted: November 25, 2013 at 07:55 PM (#4605968)
The Blue Jays have an absolute garbage minor league system right now.

I think this is extreme. The Jays problem is that with the exception of Stroman, they don't have any top prospects at AA or above (Sanchez will be there next year)
   34. Walt Davis Posted: November 25, 2013 at 11:28 PM (#4606022)
Maybe its the year round baseball training he undertakes, now?

Gotta be the roids!
   35. zonk Posted: November 26, 2013 at 01:06 AM (#4606053)
He probably added a pitch (or two) to his repertoire.


When he first arrived as Bullpen Jesus - yeah - he was mostly a four seamer and a two seamer that nominally functioned as a change of pace, together with a rapidly developing slider. That was always the big knock on him early in his career - whether he'd round out the repertoire enough to be a legitimate rotation candidate....

But - the slider has come along quite nicely, he's also developed a cutter, and a nice splitter than he throws a good bit slower than than his 4 and 2 seamer. I honestly would take his arsenal over Garza's.

That's really be the most surprising thing to me about him -- he really has developed an awfully nice mix of pitches and has really learned how to change speeds well. Again, it remains puzzling to me how he was barely a 1 WAR pitcher last year... I was a skeptic but I am a believer that the guy is a legitiate mid-rotation reliable SP... If he's looking for 13-14-15 per year, sorry - I don't think he's worth that, but he could help plenty of teams that need a quality SP, just not necessarily an ace.

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