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Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Zack Greinke trade makes sense for these teams

This is a very funny line.

Yes, Greinke is 35 and has a big contract—three years and $104.5 million remaining through 2021—but that might lower the required return.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 14, 2018 at 01:32 PM | 36 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: diamondbacks, zack greinke

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   1. BrianBrianson Posted: November 14, 2018 at 03:12 PM (#5787481)
He'd probably be a better option for 1B than Baltimore's current plan.
   2. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: November 14, 2018 at 03:19 PM (#5787485)
I can't imagine Greinke has any trade value. Best case scenario is that he is barely worth his contract over the next 3 years. If he were a free agent, would anybody offer 3/$104.5? If not, why would anyone give up anything of value for him?
   3. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: November 14, 2018 at 03:25 PM (#5787487)
I’m running an off-season Simulation with 29 other guys pretending to be GMs...to get rid of him, .the DBacks owner traded Greinke AND Robbie Ray AND $15MM to the Nats for a meh prospect (Will Crowe).

So say we!
   4. BrianBrianson Posted: November 14, 2018 at 03:28 PM (#5787488)
He's a little old, but he's averaged ~5 WAR a year for the last two years. Yeah, he had a bad year three years ago - but a great one four. etc. One can certainly see upside. Though not much past $35 M/year, no.
   5. PreservedFish Posted: November 14, 2018 at 03:36 PM (#5787491)
I’m running an off-season Simulation with 29 other guys pretending to be GMs...to get rid of him, .the DBacks owner traded Greinke AND Robbie Ray AND $15MM to the Nats for a meh prospect (Will Crowe).


Bad trade for the fake DBacks, IMO.
   6. Khrushin it bro Posted: November 14, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5787493)
Would you rather have Kershaw at 3/$93 or Greinke at 3/$95.5? Kershaw has seen diminished velocity and back problems but is ~4 years younger with a bigger frame and a lefty. I'd say it's pretty close.
   7. Baldrick Posted: November 14, 2018 at 04:38 PM (#5787522)
If he were a free agent, would anybody offer 3/$104.5? If not, why would anyone give up anything of value for him?

I'm not saying I'd give up a ton of value, but there just aren't that many guys that are as good as Greinke. If you really need starting pitching, it might be worth overpaying to get him.
   8. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 14, 2018 at 04:51 PM (#5787535)

Would you rather have Kershaw at 3/$93 or Greinke at 3/$95.5? Kershaw has seen diminished velocity and back problems but is ~4 years younger with a bigger frame and a lefty. I'd say it's pretty close.

Kershaw can earn up to another $4m per season in incentives based on number of starts. I'd still probably rather have him than Greinke but given the recent health of the two guys I agree it's close.

And of course, the Dodgers already had Kershaw under contract for the next two years when they signed the extension, so it's not a completely fair comparison.

D-backs may be better off rolling the dice that he'll have a good first half and then moving him to a contender mid-season.
   9. Nasty Nate Posted: November 14, 2018 at 04:56 PM (#5787538)

And of course, the Dodgers already had Kershaw under contract for the next two years when they signed the extension
It seems likely that he would have opted-out if he didn't get that extension.
   10. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 14, 2018 at 05:20 PM (#5787553)

It seems likely that he would have opted-out if he didn't get that extension.

Good point - I had forgotten that.
   11. shoewizard Posted: November 14, 2018 at 10:20 PM (#5787650)
I covered Diamondbacks players Trade Value here

I figured Greinke has negative trade value of about 12M if the DBacks don't expect anything back. If they want a prospect ranked 76-100 they'll have to kick in another 15-20 M. See link for details and methodology
   12. The Duke Posted: November 15, 2018 at 07:35 AM (#5787708)
Greinke has a lot of value to a team that has a three year window with a weak farm system and money to burn like the cubs, angels or Red Sox. I could see either taking the salary for a minor prospect.

He might be more attractive to up and coming teams like brewers if d-backs eat some money
   13. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 15, 2018 at 08:16 AM (#5787715)
The Red Sox don't really have money to burn. They already had the highest payroll in MLB last season, and were well into the LT. And they have a bunch of guys who are still on cheap deals, but on the cusp of starting to get expensive. Cots has their opening day payroll for next season projected at $215m. I really don't see them adding another $32m guy to that.
   14. BrianBrianson Posted: November 15, 2018 at 08:52 AM (#5787722)
Indeed, we know a lot about AAV, but contract length isn't as well understood, I don't think. If Greinke has positive trad value, it's that pitchers of his quality typically can get more than 3 years (though at his age - maybe it's only four - but if he were a free agent today, I could certainly see him getting $105 Million/4 years, or so, with the fourth year probably not worth much.)
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 15, 2018 at 09:13 AM (#5787727)
I think Greinke makes sense for the Yankees.

If Ariz. would eat $20M or so, I'd give them one of the Yankees many, many B/B- pitching prospects, and a couple of lottery tickets. for Greinke at 3/85
   16. Zonk is One Individual Posted: November 15, 2018 at 09:13 AM (#5787728)
The Cubs are already paying about 100 million for a decent but not great rotation that probably has an extra arm anyway. They certainly don't need to be paying 130 million by adding another expensive guy who could be good, but ultimately just adds another highly paid age/injury concern.
   17. Nasty Nate Posted: November 15, 2018 at 09:27 AM (#5787731)
I covered Diamondbacks players Trade Value here

I figured Greinke has negative trade value of about 12M if the DBacks don't expect anything back. If they want a prospect ranked 76-100 they'll have to kick in another 15-20 M. See link for details and methodology
Thanks. That estimate doesn't include the $2m trade bonus you mention, right?

It's interesting either way, but is there an indication that they will be trading guys? I don't follow them closely, but from a distance it seems like a team that might as well keep their good players for now (unless trading them for other good players). They have a manager and a coaching staff in place, and even losing Corbin etc they still have a bunch of talent.
   18. Nasty Nate Posted: November 15, 2018 at 09:30 AM (#5787733)
They certainly don't need to be paying 130 million by adding another expensive guy who could be good, but ultimately just adds another highly paid age/injury concern.
I'll quibble with this phrasing. Whatever SP the Cubs (or anyone else) use will be an injury concern, that's just the nature of the position. So Greinke wouldn't be a net add of an injury concern.
   19. Zonk is One Individual Posted: November 15, 2018 at 09:59 AM (#5787744)
I'll quibble with this phrasing. Whatever SP the Cubs (or anyone else) use will be an injury concern, that's just the nature of the position. So Greinke wouldn't be a net add of an injury concern.


Fair enough. For some reason, I thought Greinke missing some time was A)last year (as in 2017), not 2016 and B)more like half a season than the ~month or two he did miss.

   20. jmurph Posted: November 15, 2018 at 10:04 AM (#5787748)
I think Greinke makes sense for the Yankees.

If Ariz. would eat $20M or so, I'd give them one of the Yankees many, many B/B- pitching prospects, and a couple of lottery tickets. for Greinke at 3/85

I agree, this seems not just possible but likely. It's the perfect match of needs/resources.
   21. BrianBrianson Posted: November 15, 2018 at 10:15 AM (#5787753)
Jeez, Greinke has made 32+ starts/year in the last two years, four of the last five. He's made 28+ starts in 10 of the last 11 years (with a 26 three years ago).

If he's too much of an injury risk for your team to sign, your team will never, ever sign another pitcher.
   22. jmurph Posted: November 15, 2018 at 10:52 AM (#5787780)
Jeez, Greinke has made 32+ starts/year in the last two years, four of the last five. He's made 28+ starts in 10 of the last 11 years (with a 26 three years ago).

If he's too much of an injury risk for your team to sign, your team will never, ever sign another pitcher.

Yeah he's reliable, durable, still good. Overpaid a bit, sure, but he makes sense for nearly every rich team (except likely Boston, as pointed out above, who already has an immensely expensive rotation).
   23. Blastin Posted: November 15, 2018 at 11:00 AM (#5787791)
Greinke's ability to overcome his anxiety issues a decade ago and turn into a possible HOFer has been a really cool thing to watch, especially as someone with anxiety issues myself.

I would be happy with a deal snapper mentioned.

...what if we could get Goldschmidt too tho... and sign Corbin.... all your DBacks are belong to us...
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 15, 2018 at 11:07 AM (#5787797)
...what if we could get Goldschmidt

If you want a RH bat, just sign Macahdo. If the Yankees get a 1B, he needs to be LH.
   25. Blastin Posted: November 15, 2018 at 11:16 AM (#5787801)
Fair enough.

Greinke/Corbin/Machado/bring back Robertson, backup IF. I shall make it so!
   26. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 15, 2018 at 11:23 AM (#5787809)
Greinke/Corbin/Machado/bring back Robertson, backup IF. I shall make it so!

I think Robertson is an expensive luxury if they add Greinke/Machado. I'd also think those two would put Corbin out of reach.

I'd say Greinke/Machado/Happ. Andujar is the big question mark, along with extending Gregorius.

If you can get Machado to play 3B, you could look to extend Gregorius to a 3-ish year deal. Then Andujar is trade bait.

If Gregorius won't sign, or Machado insists on SS, you non-tender Didi, and live with Andujar at 3B until either he or Machado prove they can't handle their position.
   27. Blastin Posted: November 15, 2018 at 11:25 AM (#5787814)
I'd say Greinke/Machado/Happ. Andujar is the big question mark, along with extending Gregorius.


You think they can find another RP in the minors? i suppose not impossible.
   28. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 15, 2018 at 11:37 AM (#5787820)
You think they can find another RP in the minors? i suppose not impossible.

Not sure what you mean? In the pen they have Chapman, Green, Betances, and Holder as top-flight arms. They still have Kahnle too, plus guys like German and Loaisiga. That a full pen before you even touch the raft of pitching prospects in the minors.

Given the gaping holes in the rotation, at 1B and SS, spending $12M to bring back Robertson seems a very poor use of resources. It only makes sense if you pair it with a trade of Betances.

   29. Walt Davis Posted: November 15, 2018 at 03:38 PM (#5788046)
Best recent trade comp is probably Verlander. Astros got 2+ years for which he was owed $56+, the Tigers picked up $16, got a top but very young pitching prospect (appears hurt), a young former top 100 OF prospect (doing OK, not great) and a guy. Greinke has been better than Verlander at the time of the trade but is also a year older and much more expensive. DBacks probably don't have to bring his AAV all the way down to $20 to get a return similar to the Tigers but, as several have noted, they're gonna have to eat at least $20 M to get much of anything back. Goldschmidt at 1/$14.5 has more trade value than Greinke.

Verlander has of course been insanely good since the Astros taught him how to cheat ... err, I mean increase his spin rate ... so they win that trade hands down. If Greinke gets traded to Houston, expect another 200 ERA+ season.
   30. shoewizard Posted: November 15, 2018 at 11:38 PM (#5788293)
Thanks. That estimate doesn't include the $2m trade bonus you mention, right?


The Estimate is separate from all bonus money. I spell it out in the article, but here it is again:

First of all, you will note that the salary owed above does not include the signing bonus money that is prorated over the life of the contract, as the DBacks will have to pay the remaining 9M signing bonus money no matter what. There is also a 2M assignment bonus if Zack is traded, again, the Dbacks would have to pay that. So the amount of money actually moving with him is 95.5 Million. AND keep in mind that 10M per year of that is deferred out to 2025-27. (10M per year on the first 3 years was also deferred, and the DBacks will be paying that 30M in addition to the 11M mentioned above as well. )

Bottom line, DBacks don’t need to eat too much additional money to move Zack if they expect little to nothing in return in terms of prospect value. Maybe just 10-12 M. But if they want a prospect ranked in the 76-100 range, then they will need to kick in another 15-20M for a total of 25-30M. Of course they then still get about 65-70 M in salary relief over the next 3 years.




It's interesting either way, but is there an indication that they will be trading guys? I don't follow them closely, but from a distance it seems like a team that might as well keep their good players for now (unless trading them for other good players). They have a manager and a coaching staff in place, and even losing Corbin etc they still have a bunch of talent.


Signals are mixed, and things could go a lot of different ways. They are talking about lowering payroll from where they ended up last year, (132 Opening day, 141 M end of year) there are 10 free agents, a zippo farm system, and current commitments including guaranteed, arb estimates and pre arb estimates are up to about 142M as is. And they project to about 81 wins on paper at best. So it's fairly obvious what they SHOULD be doing. They don't have the prospects to deal or the money to spend to up that win projection to 88 wins. So they should rebuild. But ownership doesn't quite have the stomach for it.

In a recent article Mike Hazen said he was actually charged with
Get Cheaper
Get Better
Don't mortgage the future

Who does he think he is...Billy Beane ;)



One point to note: Jeff Mathis, who has been Greinke's personal catcher the last two years and was his personal catcher in LAA , just signed with the Rangers.

   31. shoewizard Posted: November 16, 2018 at 02:50 AM (#5788327)
The #Dbacks aren't bothering to hide it, they are extensively shopping Greinke, who had fabulous season once again, but realize they will have to pay portion of the remaining $104.5 million remaining in his contract. Be interesting if they packaged Greinke and Goldschmidt


Twitter
   32. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 16, 2018 at 09:08 AM (#5788341)
There have been whispers of the Rockies going after Goldschmidt, which would be huge for them, since they've gotten nothing out of first base the past couple of years.
   33. Nasty Nate Posted: November 16, 2018 at 09:11 AM (#5788342)


Signals are mixed, and things could go a lot of different ways. They are talking about lowering payroll from where they ended up last year, (132 Opening day, 141 M end of year) there are 10 free agents, a zippo farm system, and current commitments including guaranteed, arb estimates and pre arb estimates are up to about 142M as is. And they project to about 81 wins on paper at best. So it's fairly obvious what they SHOULD be doing. They don't have the prospects to deal or the money to spend to up that win projection to 88 wins. So they should rebuild. But ownership doesn't quite have the stomach for it.

In a recent article Mike Hazen said he was actually charged with
Get Cheaper
Get Better
Don't mortgage the future

Who does he think he is...Billy Beane ;)
Thanks. I wonder if they might do a soft reload: trade as much of Greinke's contract as they can now, and then see where they are midseason before either doing a tear-down or a modest addition of talent if they are in the race.
   34. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 16, 2018 at 10:32 AM (#5788373)

The Cubs are already paying about 100 million for a decent but not great rotation that probably has an extra arm anyway. They certainly don't need to be paying 130 million by adding another expensive guy who could be good, but ultimately just adds another highly paid age/injury concern.

I don't know the details of the Cubs rotation, but why wouldn't the Cubs be willing to trade the Dbacks one of their less expensive starters in exchange for Greinke if it materially improved their rotation? Maybe take back some cash in the deal as well if necessary.
   35. shoewizard Posted: November 17, 2018 at 09:28 PM (#5788915)
Thanks. I wonder if they might do a soft reload: trade as much of Greinke's contract as they can now, and then see where they are midseason before either doing a tear-down or a modest addition of talent if they are in the race.


they keep putting it off and off...and ultimately they end up just reducing the effectiveness of any future tear down and/or rebuild. I advocated tear down after 2016 season. Two years ago they get really good rebuild pieces and value for Pollock, Goldy, Greinke, Segura. Heck they might have even been able to dump 1/2 of Tomas' contract after his 30 homer season. Then they went and won the WC in 2017 and Archie Bradley had a big triple and everyone thought..."Cool". But I knew this reckoning was coming, and coming hard.

David Peralta has 2 years remaining. HIS value will never be higher.

Robbie Ray has trade value...despite not being able to go more than 5 innings. I guess the league has come back to him.

Goldschmidt now still has value. He will certainly get and reject a QO, meaning he has that value to DBacks now. If traded mid season, they don't get that pick, and the team trading for him wouldn't get it. If he is traded now...the team trading for him gets that pick. That means in addition to the 28M marginal trade value he has, there is at least another 5-10M value in that pick, plus the intangible of who Goldschmidt is. So if they are going to move him, better to do it now. Otherwise just keep him until the end, give him the QO and take the pick, publicize a 5 year 90 M deal or whatever. Then at least the team is not the black hats when he goes elsewhere.





   36. McCoy Posted: November 17, 2018 at 09:32 PM (#5788917)

I don't know the details of the Cubs rotation, but why wouldn't the Cubs be willing to trade the Dbacks one of their less expensive starters in exchange for Greinke if it materially improved their rotation? Maybe take back some cash in the deal as well if necessary.


The only less expensive pitcher that anybody would want would be the inexpensive pitcher that the Cubs wouldn't want to give up. I'm sure the Cubs would be happy to trade you Chatwood but nobody would be happy to get him.

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