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Sunday, January 22, 2012

Zettel: Yu Darvish vs. Lefty Grove

Even Sigafoos thinks this is fos!

fos

Like Grove, Darvish enters the Major Leagues at age 25, after a five year professional career in another league. Unlike Grove, Darvish kept his walk totals low, but struck out 1,083 batters in just over 1,020 innings in Japan’s Pacific League. Darvish’s ERAs are extremely low on a year-by-year basis, and not surprisingly, Darvish won approximately 73% of his decisions while playing in Japan. One of the interesting differences between Grove and Darvish is that Grove was also used as a reliever for approximately 10-15 games per season; Darvish, on the other hand, mostly served as a starter during his early professional career.

I know a lot of this is just happenstance, vague suggestions made across eras. But, I thought it would be fun to use the Darvish signing as an opportunity to remember the career of Lefty Grove, one of the greatest pitchers in the history of baseball. Both pitchers were so talented that they drew remarkable monetary transactions between their previous club and their future MLB team. Both pitchers were extreme winners in their early professional career, winning between 73% and 74% of their decisions before reaching the majors. And of course, they were both strike out machines, fanning more than 1,000 batters in more than 1,000 innings prior to reaching the majors.

It’s also exciting to think of the potential of Darvish dominating the American League. Frankly , I think he can be a valuable contributor to the Rangers, and I think he’ll be a worthwhile acquisition even if he’s an average or slightly above average pitcher. Maybe, just maybe, like another grand purchase, he’ll come to dominate major league batters; in another 50 years, maybe we’ll remember Darvish the way we remember Grove.

Repoz Posted: January 22, 2012 at 12:49 PM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: athletics, business, history, international, japan, rangers

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: January 22, 2012 at 01:30 PM (#4042417)
Prior to Pedro, Grove was the greatest rate pitcher of all time. If Darvish pitches as well as Grove did, this deal will be worth it.
   2. Bob Evans Posted: January 22, 2012 at 01:58 PM (#4042452)
If he has to pitch as well as Grove for it to be worth it, it is a bad deal.
   3. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: January 22, 2012 at 03:02 PM (#4042482)
If he has to pitch as well as Grove for it to be worth it, it is a bad deal.


He doesn't have to pitch near as well. He's costing the Rangers ~ $110 mil over 6 years. In Grove's first six years in the majors he put up a 35 WAR. At current $/win, that's worth about $160 mil. He just has to be a little better than Mark Buehrle (23.7 WAR over his first 6 years.) to be worth it
   4. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: January 22, 2012 at 03:49 PM (#4042520)
From my perspective, if he wins the deciding game of a single World Series he'll be well worth it no matter what his overall WAR total. Not to say that he'll be a bust otherwise, but this is a team with a major finished-business deficit ... the fans aren't really going to care about value for money over six years or whatever.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: January 22, 2012 at 06:28 PM (#4042608)
the fans aren't really going to care about value for money over six years or whatever.

That's the problem with fans these days -- not enough time with their nose in the spreadsheet.
   6. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: January 22, 2012 at 07:50 PM (#4042655)
Are there many Ranger fan primates on this site? If my club had just blown 2 straight World Series I wouldn't give a damn how much money they spend as long as it keeps them on track to finally win one.
   7. Justin 'The Cespedobear' T Posted: January 22, 2012 at 08:13 PM (#4042670)
See #4

And Spivey
   8. cardsfanboy Posted: January 22, 2012 at 08:39 PM (#4042690)
but this is a team with a major finished-business deficit


The Braves fans would like to have a word with you. :)

If the Braves could have mustered out just two more World Series wins in those years(say the two that the Marlins got) they would be revered for one of the greatest championships runs in sport history, instead they are just a great team.
   9. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 22, 2012 at 09:10 PM (#4042706)
If Darvish pitches as well as Grove did, this deal will be worth it.

If anyone pitches as well as Grove did, at $30 mil per year, they'd be worth it. As stated above, Darvish comes a little cheaper then that...
   10. Bob Evans Posted: January 22, 2012 at 09:51 PM (#4042724)
He just has to be a little better than Mark Buehrle (23.7 WAR over his first 6 years.) to be worth it

Fair enough, but even that's a pretty high bar. You pays your money and you takes your chances, I warrant.
   11. Something Other Posted: January 22, 2012 at 11:12 PM (#4042766)
He just has to be a little better than Mark Buehrle (23.7 WAR over his first 6 years.) to be worth it
Aren't wins going for a bit over 5m apiece on the FA market? That means Darvish only has to put up around around 110/5.25= a little under 21 wins. A few fewer if we assume some salary inflation. 3 wins a year probably does it.

Buehrle's not nearly the pitcher he was over the first half of his career (I'm dividing his 12 seasons 6 and 6), but if he can repeat his past six years he'll have Andy Pettitte's career, roughly 240 wins with an ERA+ around 117. He's been nothing close to special in the postseason, so unless that changes he looks an awful lot like a guy who's going to need one of THE milestones to make the Hall. 300 wins or bust, and he'll have to pitch until he's 42 with no further decline in order to make it.
   12. RMc is the loyal supporter of the MLB event Posted: January 23, 2012 at 10:10 AM (#4042981)
Are there many Ranger fan primates on this site?

Nahh, they're all waiting in line for Cowboys tickets. Screw 'em.

\Tigers fan
\\still bitter
   13. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: January 23, 2012 at 10:30 AM (#4042998)
not enough time with their nose in the spreadsheet

:-D Seriously, I realize that one purpose of this site is to analyze baseball and see if various transactions make sense from any number of perspectives. But as a fan, I have never really noticed that contract A in year X hampers a ballclub in year X + 4 or whatever (and I lived through AROD in Texas, the ultimate worst-case contract). And it's not my money, anyway. If Mr Ryan goes broke he can always stay in my TV room. I have a futon and everything.
   14. Still Waiting on Pork Chops (John R.) Posted: January 23, 2012 at 12:27 PM (#4043155)
I think I count as a half-Primate at this point. Read a bunch, post almost never.
   15. Something Other Posted: January 23, 2012 at 08:59 PM (#4043688)
@13: Really? The Red Sox are clearly hamstrung by the Matsuzaka, Lackey, and Crawford contracts. That's around 50m for one or two wins. If the Mets were close to contending, they'd have had the handicap last year of Santana and Bay producing nothing in return for $40m, and being worth very little over the next two years for $80m total. Assuming the Yankees miss the postseason by a game or two over the next six years, it's likely we'll be able to attribute that to ARod's latest deal.

If you meant a single contract, there are other examples, of teams with 15-20m in the toilet who miss the postseason by a win or two. Ballclubs are hampered all the times by big deals. Look at the Soriano-Zambrano-Dempster-Fukudome Cubs. That's around $55 worth of toilet paper right there, with the first three in part due to the Cubs getting the tail end of their contracts all around the same time.

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