Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, April 05, 2012
This is the final ZiPS release looking ahead at the 2012 season. These were finalized before the A's-Mariners games, so there's not "cheating" by including the 2 days of statistics into the model. The .zip file contains a full spreadsheet for Excel 2010 and CSV files for the batters and pitchers.
In addition to the usual projected things, I've now included the platoon splits and estimated projection for defensive runs.
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: April 05, 2012 at 01:21 PM | 22 comment(s)
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Wednesday, April 04, 2012
Remember RBI Baseball for Nintendo? For those that are interested, I’ve made a modified version of the original RBI Baseball ROM with 2012 ZiPS.
For use of the ROM, seek ye an NES emulator, which can be found in a number of open-source flavors. I use FCEUX.
Any other old NES ROMs, I can’t legally tell you anything about how to find them, but the rumors on the internet are that a “search” engine can find said ROMS. But I don’t know nything about that.
 ...
Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: April 04, 2012 at 02:11 PM | 20 comment(s)
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Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Monday, February 20, 2012
Pirates - Acquire Burnett
Pittsburgh Pirates acquire P A. J. Burnett for outfielder Exicardo Cayones, pitcher Diego Moreno and $20 million in cash ($11.5 million in 2012 and $8.5 million in 2013)
All in all a pretty reasonable deal for both sides. The Yankees free up a roster spot, add a couple of middle grade suspects and make those last few additions to the roster a little more cost effective. It’s been reported in terms of giving the Yankees financial flexibility. That’s only true if they were dealing with an ... Read More...
Ron J
Posted: February 20, 2012 at 09:51 AM | 10 comment(s)
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Friday, February 17, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates
Unfortunately, Pittsburgh’s 72-90 record pretty accurately reflects where the team current stands, more than the early summer run that saw the team relevant in the NL Central standings for the first time in years. A lot of the success with the pitching staff was of the ephemeral variety. Jeff Karsten and his 3.38 ERA last season stand out - he has a weak resume and as a finesse righty with a fastball in the 80s that can’t keep the ball down enough, he walks that Josh Towers-like line between ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 17, 2012 at 02:20 PM | 41 comment(s)
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Wednesday, February 15, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres
I can understand a team trading Mat Latos for quality prospects. I can understand picking up Carlos Quentin and trading off a surplus 1B/OF prospect for starting pitching depth. What I don't understand is doing the things described in the first two sentences in the same offseason. Part of the reason you acquire a slugger for the short-term and trade for depth is because you have Mat Latos on the team, after all. I had the same puzzlement last year as the Padres traded Adrian Gonzalez (who ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 15, 2012 at 02:45 PM | 29 comment(s)
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Friday, February 10, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A’s
The A's are starting what looks to be their first true full tear-down job of the last decade. While they've always sent their better players out of town for various reasons, the players they've traded away aren't as good, and as a result don't fetch as much, as previous salary dumps. It's also unlikely that the A's will do any sudden strategy shifts, like the acquisition of Matt Holliday less than a year after the trading-away of many players that would have made the Holliday trade ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 10, 2012 at 11:52 AM | 69 comment(s)
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Wednesday, February 08, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers
What's there to say about the Rangers, really? It's a deep team with a very good farm system that'll be there at the end of the season. The team's still a bit underrated defensively - I'm not sure how much the general public really comprehends just how good the non-Beltre defenders generally are. Even Mike Napoli, considered a serviceable backstop at best, made great strides defensively last season. ZiPS saw the Angels pulling even with the Rangers this season, but the Rangers landed ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 08, 2012 at 12:33 PM | 21 comment(s)
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Monday, February 06, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections - Miami Marlins
The Marlins, thanks to Loria actually investing some money back into the team (though partially by virture of taxpayer subsidization, an issue we won't touch here), are a serious threat in the NL Wild Card race and their chances of winning the division, while on the long side, are legitimate - the Phillies don't have an unassailable roster and there are some downside scenarios that give real openings to the rest of the East.
What puts the Marlins a little behind the Braves is that while they ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 06, 2012 at 02:39 PM | 31 comment(s)
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Thursday, February 02, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks
The most encouraging thing about Arizona’s season, well, other than the trip to the playoffs, is just how quickly and efficiently they turned over a horrific 2010 bullpen. The favorite quote of Branch Rickey among statheads (myself included) is “Luck is the residue of design.” That kinda describes how the Diamondback bullpen worked so quickly - in every situation, both in performance and dollars, Arizona acquired relievers that would be a great help to the team in the upside and harmless on ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 02, 2012 at 02:28 PM | 31 comment(s)
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Monday, January 30, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians
The 2011 Indians hung around in the divisional race far longer than they had any right to, so kudos to them for being relevant ahead of schedule - the Tigers were simply a stronger team and it was hard to keep that going for an entire season.
The Indians still aren't really ready to compete with the Tigers, but there are at least some encouraging signs. The team still has all sorts of interesting infielders and despite only finishing 9th in the league in scoring, the team has offense at all ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 30, 2012 at 01:42 PM | 19 comment(s)
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Thursday, January 26, 2012
Tigers - signed Fielder
Detroit Tigers sign 1B Prince Fielder to a 9 year/$214 million contract.
A fascinating signing on so many levels. First of all, a week ago serious people were seriously discussing the possibility that Fielder might end up in Japan, or have to settle for a short term contract—possibly as little as a year. It’s fairly clear that there was an element of luck (color me doubtful that the Tigers were sold on this signing before the Martinez signing), but again Boros gets his man the money and years ... Read More...
Ron J
Posted: January 26, 2012 at 06:46 PM | 26 comment(s)
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2012 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals
If the Nationals go into the season as the likely 4th-best team in the division, it's not from lack of trying - the team's been in on every major free agent this winter, making serious
offers, and even being the favorite destination for Prince Fielder for about a month.
The team's really just missing one big middle of the order bat to be in a good position to mix it up with the rest of the division and compete well for a Wild Card. They're not so far away
that it can't happen in 2012 with ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 26, 2012 at 05:04 PM | 42 comment(s)
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Saturday, January 21, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays
Is there any team more happy about baseball adding a second wildcard spot than the Toronto Blue Jays? In the short-term at least (and probable long-term unless the top AL East teams start showing some serious incompetence), Toronto's prospects improve considerably if they don't have to better both the Red Sox and Yankees to make the playoffs. That obviously helps Tampa Bay and Baltimore as well, but the Jays are in that sweet spot where it's pretty darn useful - the Rays can compete for the ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 21, 2012 at 11:26 AM | 42 comment(s)
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Wednesday, January 18, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays plan to win in 2012 the same way they usually do: pitching, defense, and catching just enough lightning in a bottle on offense around their core. The team is, at least by ZiPS, just behind the Red Sox for 3rd place, but the winter is over and given how relatively quiet the team has been with minor-league signings (outside of Luke Scott, they've made very few), they've still got some empty bottles to fill.
Tampa won't have that starting rotation, forever. A team competing on a ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 18, 2012 at 04:01 PM | 29 comment(s)
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Saturday, January 14, 2012
Mariners - Acquired Montero
Seattle Mariners acquire C Jesus Montero for P Michael Pineda and P Jose Campos
ZiPS projected Montero at .271/.333/.486 in Yankee Stadium. Good enough for a 112 OPS+. He’s going to a much tougher place to hit, so the raw stat line is not going to be nearly as pretty to get the same value. Let’s put it this way. Justin Smoak (a name not chosen at random of course) put up a 104 OPS+ with .234/.323/.396. I like Montero an awful lot but I’d downgrade him a fair amount in anything like a Strat ... Read More...
Ron J
Posted: January 14, 2012 at 01:12 AM | 35 comment(s)
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Friday, January 13, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals
If you watch the Food Network, you might have come across a competitive cooking show called "Chopped" in which chefs are given baskets of mystery ingredients. Some ingredients are pretty cool, some ingredients have tremendous use in specific areas, and some ingredients are downright awful. Each one of the chefs that survive each round have to use all the ingredients together in a non-horrible way.
<
That's a lot how the Royals are right now. There are a lot of the ingredients of a winning team in the future. Some of them are finished, quality products, like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Some of the ingredients, like Eric Hosmer and Johnny Giavotella, are exciting to work with. But a lot of the team's prospects, at this point, fall into the category of "interesting" like most of the pitchers having at least one serious flaw or concern to worry about. All these ingredients are scattered and all over the place and the Royals at this point, are still going to likely struggle to hit 75 wins.
There's still a lot more offseason left, but as of now, the good news is that there really ...Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:11 PM | 31 comment(s)
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Sunday, January 08, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds
The Reds had a reasonable argument at being competitive in the NL Central last season (ZiPS had them tied with Brewers, just ahead of Cardinals), but the starting pitching pretty much
abandoned the team, with the exception of Johnny Cueto. The addition of Mat Latos obviously improves the rotation, but the team has a bit less depth now and there are less emergency
options in the rotation with Travis Wood in Chicago (ZiPS still believes in him enough to give him a ERA+ of 100 there) and Matt ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 08, 2012 at 02:05 PM | 34 comment(s)
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Thursday, January 05, 2012
Marlins - Acquired Zambrano
Florida Marlins - Acquired P Carlos Zambrano and $15 million from the Chicago Cubs for P Chris Volstad
This is a deal that I understand from the Cubs point of view even if it is one I don’t think I would have made. The Cubs don’t figure to be very good (to put it mildly) in 2012 and the odds are against Zambrano making a substantial on-field contribution. He’d also likely become the focus of the fans discontent (assuming he was to pitch and be an expensive mediocrity) and there’s every reason ... Read More...
Ron J
Posted: January 05, 2012 at 01:58 PM | 34 comment(s)
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Tuesday, January 03, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers projections go up and just about the perfect time: after Betancourt is gone, after Ramirez is signed, but before Fielder signs elsewhere. Fielder's a great player, but the
Brewers really do have a solid team that can survive even the loss of their best hitter, especially given that the Cardinals are doing the same thing with the loss of their franchise
player.
I'm not too thrilled with the way the whole Aramis Ramirez thing worked out. Aramis is probably a better player than ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 03, 2012 at 02:11 PM | 24 comment(s)
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Friday, December 30, 2011
2012 ZiPS Projections - Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles play in a beautiful, clean, park, with convenient light rail access and a short trip from Baltimore's Inner Harbor, Fells Point, and Canton. For crabs, take Eastern Boulevard
to Mr. Bill's Terrace Inn or head to L.P. Steamers near Fort McHenry. If crabs aren't your thing, I'm very partial to Della Norte in Little Italy or, if you want to try Baltimore's non-
barbecue barbecue, pit beef, Chaps Pit Beef or Pioneer Pit Beef.
Next Up: Milwaukee Brewers
Oracle on Twitter
... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 30, 2011 at 07:15 PM | 48 comment(s)
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Tuesday, December 27, 2011
2012 ZiPS Projections - Colorado Rockies
I complain every year about the bipolar nature of Colorado's plans, a yearly awkward mix of rebuilding and pushing for the division, but that's almost a broken record at this point. Though
I guess trading Ubaldo Jimenez for good prospects but then signing an average-hitting, below-average defensive Cuddyer for his declining years for $10 million a year just adds to the
hilarity.
Colorado's pitching staff is underrated, as usual. The Coors park factors had been down for awhile, probably ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 27, 2011 at 08:39 PM | 24 comment(s)
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Thursday, December 22, 2011
2012 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves
Despite the disappointing final month of the season (to put it lightly), the Braves are still a dangerous team. The pitching staff is young and quite deep and rather than try to emulate the Braves success developing pitchers, I think it's reached the point at which other organizations should simply abduct all the people that work on player development and simply force them to scout and train prospects, at knifepoint if need be. Or, I guess, they could hire them, but that's slower.
While two ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 22, 2011 at 08:40 PM | 28 comment(s)
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Monday, December 19, 2011
2012 ZiPS Projections - Houston Astros
At some point, to bash the Houston Astros simply becomes piling-on. The 2011 Astros were not only a lousy team, but a team that applied lousiness consistently across all the various aspects of baseball, and needed 6 WAR from the departed Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn just to get up to 56 wins. The long reckoning expected by observers for an organization that had a GM in Ed Wade that simultaneously ignored the major leagues, the minors leagues, and any kind of thrift, finally came to pass, ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 19, 2011 at 07:34 PM | 54 comment(s)
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Saturday, December 17, 2011
2012 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals
As I generally mention when a good, not great team wins the World Series, the most dangerous trap that team can fall into is the tendency to "bring back the band" and try to keep the roster pretty much the way it was during their championship season. A great team has a little more room to rest on their laurels, a very good team doesn't. The San Franciso Giants were the most recent team to fall into the trap and when an offense that had a lot go right to just finish 9th in scoring in 2010 had ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 17, 2011 at 03:15 AM | 31 comment(s)
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Saturday, December 10, 2011
2012 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers
Within last year's projections, I described the 2010 season as a disappointing year that was more "bland mediocrity than explosive failure." That's the same kind of season the Dodgers had
in 2011, a kind of bland mediocrity with a notably bright pinnacle, like seeing Ron Swanson backstage after a Nickelback concert. That pinnacle, of course, being Cy Young winner Clayton
Kershaw and the real NL MVP, Matt Kemp, who, at in bWAR, made up half the value of the entire team in 2011. Of course, ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 10, 2011 at 10:54 PM | 26 comment(s)
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Friday, December 09, 2011
Angels - Sign Pujols
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim sign 1B Albert Pujols to a 10 year/ $254 million contract. Other details are not yet available, though there is some form of a no trade clause.
OK, everybody has heard of the guy. I'm going to assume that his official age is his true age -- all bets are off if he is in fact older. I think it's doubtful but not absolutely impossible that he is in fact a few years older.
The real key to this signing is how he'll age. The awkward thing in terms of figuring this out ... Read More...
Ron J
Posted: December 09, 2011 at 08:26 AM | 43 comment(s)
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Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Blue Jays - Acquire Santos
Toronto Blue Jays acquire DSA Sergio Santos from the Chicago White Sox for RHP prospect Nestor Molina.
I'd hate to think the logic behind this deal is on the order of -- We had 25 blown saves and only 33 saves last year. With a Proven Veteran Closer we might have made the playoffs. Santos was 30 of 36 last year, Problem solved.
In the first place 83% is an unremarkable save conversion rate for a closer. (he had 2 holds in 2 opportunities as well. Count those and it's 84%. Doesn't change the ... Read More...
Ron J
Posted: December 07, 2011 at 02:59 PM | 7 comment(s)
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Tuesday, December 06, 2011
2012 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins
Not a lot of good news for the Twins in 2011. ZiPS had them slipping significantly from 2010 and while they did just that, they more than exceeded the projected dropoff. A lot to do with
it is Mauer and Morneau being injured, ineffective, or frequently both, a plot twist so bad that M. Night Shyamalan would disavow it. For video game nerds out there (there's a lot of
crossover), it's almost Final Fantasy VIII plot twist-bad.
The Twins may not fully realize it, but they're a team that's ... Read More...
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 06, 2011 at 10:02 PM | 31 comment(s)
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Marlins - Sign Reyes
Miami Marlins sign SS Jose Reyes to a 6 year/ $111 million contract (6 years/ $106 with an option of a 7th year at $22 million or a $5 million buyout)
I see several contradictory factors here. First of all, because the Marlins already have Hanley Ramirez under contract one of them loses some of their value. Sure Ramirez could be shifted to center field (the Marlins weakest position last year) or third base ( Dobbs and Bonifacio weren't bad, but Bonifacio was probably over his head and Dobbs ... Read More...
Ron J
Posted: December 06, 2011 at 06:57 PM | 13 comment(s)
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