2005 ZiPS Projections and disk for DMB 9.0, Build 6
- 2005 Schedule has now been programmed into the DMB Disk. Thanks goes to Chris Long who suggested using a text file to make schedule input easier - I had never noticed the import text file option and this reduced my 10 hours of inputting games last year into a 45-minute task this year.
- New projections and DMB players: Russ Johnson, Noah Hall, Mike Kinkade, Eddy Garabito, Emil Brown, Jason Tyner, Daric Barton, Brian Snyder, Shawn Garrett, John Castellano, Adam Stern, Joaquin Arias, Keith Osik, Ryan Garko, Kevin Tolar, Denny Tomori, Paul Shuey, Mike Matthews, Danny Borrell, Mark Valdes, Eric Junge, David Cortes, Doug Creek, Nelson Cruz, Brian Moehler, Rodrigo Rosario, Santiago Ramirez, Trey Hodges, Blake McGinley, Yusmiero Petit, Evan Fahrner, Brad Sullivan, Nate Bland, Rett Johnson, Dan Smith, Pete Walker.
- The projections spreadsheet is now considered complete. I’ll do saves next year, but I’ll hate it and put a massive disclaimer.
- The DMB disk will probably have another update or two as rosters and lineups are tinkered with.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 26, 2005 at 05:21 PM |
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1. Hendry's Wad of Cash (UCCF) Posted: February 26, 2005 at 05:40 PM (#1167220)7/25/05: NYN 37, COL 9
There's a game it would have been fun to attend.
There's a game it would have been fun to attend.
But not to score
Yeah, I was sitting there sort of halfheartedly watching the scores flash by when I saw that. I thought, "37?!"
I felt like Dante.
The Rockies left Chacon in to give up all 13 runs in the 9th. Trachsel started for the Mets but didn't get the win -- he was knocked out of the box in the 5th after having given up 6 runs.
Please tell me I don't have to reset, and total everything by hand, do I?
I can tell you that I'm resetting it after each season, so if there's a way to make it run a bunch of seasons for you at once I don't know what it is.
Yeah, you do. But SG in ATL made a spreadsheet which makes this easy to do. Hopefully he'll stop by and link to it, I don't have the link handy.
In the last sim I ran, the Nats were one up on the Braves going in to the last game of the season. With an Atlanta victory already in the books, the Nats pulled one out over the Phillies 3-2 on a David Bell error in the bottom of the 17th inning.
Goosebumps.
Having now purchased DMB and found that feature lacking, I was about to start writing the macros myself.
Quite simply though, while I can do this, I don't know when I'll have the time to do it, so if you're close to finishing by then, it doesn't make sense to duplicat the work.
It might be a good idea to submit that feature as an enhancement request for future versions of Diamond Mind, over on their web site. I'll go do that right now, but if a bunch of people do it it will make it more likely to appear.
Create an empty database, then click Restore and point to the zipped folder.
Good idea scotto, I've added it.
It also hates the AL Central, and there have been several season where the division winner was below .500. That's balanced by the NL East, where there were (so far) two seasons where every team finished above .500.
Automated simulation will make me not want to shoot myself.
Thanks for the spreadsheet SG, it's saving me a bunch of time.
And the Nationals are winning a lot more than I anticipated. DMB loves their pitching.
I ran about 20 sims last year before the season started (with their projection disks), and they consistently had the Cards running away with the NLC, which impressed me, and ran contrary to most predictions. There will always be surprises (Braves always predicted worse than they are, Marlins in 2003, Angels in 2002), but they do a pretty good job. The link above has a comparison of their pre-season predictions and many other experts' and they do pretty well.
But I'll have a macro written to automate the process sooner rather than later. Then we can run this for 1000 seasons if we'd like. The standard deviation here is high enough that would make sense.
Each season takes my computer about 5 minutes to run. 1000 seasons would only take a couple days to do once I get the process automated.
Also, with regards to simming projected 2005 seasons, have the manager profiles been set accordingly? I haven't had the chance yet to install Szym's zip file yet. Thanks, BTW, Szym!
When I finish it, I'll post it in a public place, but it might be a couple days before I get that far. There's just too much actual school work and stuff I also need to do.
No clue. It's not even mentioned on the DMB website, so probably not for at least a year, most likely two. Perhaps a v9 patch/upgrade could be released.
Unless my math fails me (and it rarely does), it would take 3 days, 11 hours, and 20 minutes.
I found a partial spreadsheet from last year, this was for 60 runs. I've bolded the division and wild card winners that it pegged.
Team Proj Actual Win difference American League W L DIV WC W L Proj - Actual <u>East</u> Baltimore Orioles 75 87 0 0 78 84 -3 Boston Red Sox 98 64 25 26 98 64 0 New York Yankees 100 62 35 21 101 61 -1 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 63 99 0 0 70 91 -7 Toronto Blue Jays 84 78 0 2 67 94 17 <u> Central</u> Chicago White Sox 75 87 6 0 83 79 -8 Cleveland Indians 79 83 17 0 80 82 -1 Detroit Tigers 70 92 5 0 72 90 -2 Kansas City Royals 79 83 18 0 58 104 21 Minnesota Twins 78 84 14 0 92 70 -14 <u> West</u> Anaheim Angels 88 74 11 10 92 70 -4 Oakland Athletics 95 67 46 2 91 71 4 Seattle Mariners 84 78 3 0 63 99 21 Texas Rangers 71 91 0 0 89 73 -18 National League<u> East</u> Atlanta Braves 84 78 7 11 96 66 -12 Florida Marlins 79 83 1 0 83 79 -4 Montreal Expos 81 81 4 3 67 95 14 New York Mets 75 87 0 0 71 91 4 Philadelphia Phillies 94 68 48 1 86 76 8 <u> Central</u> Chicago Cubs 86 76 8 12 89 73 -3 Cincinnati Reds 73 89 0 1 76 86 -3 Houston Astros 87 75 9 17 92 70 -5 Milwaukee Brewers 71 91 0 1 67 94 4 Pittsburgh Pirates 72 90 0 0 72 90 0 St. Louis Cardinals 96 66 43 8 105 57 -9 <u> West</u> Arizona Diamondbacks 85 77 30 0 51 111 34 Colorado Rockies 74 88 3 0 68 94 6 Los Angeles Dodgers 80 82 9 1 93 69 -13 San Diego Padres 82 80 17 4 87 75 -5 San Francisco Giants 75 87 1 0 91 71 -16Not so great, apparently. That Arizona projection in particular was a doozy.
Actually, they mentioned it for the first time last week in their 2/24/05 newsletter. Its just a paragraph saying that its in the works but that they can't detail features or a timetable for release.
Also, the same newsletter says that there is a patch being worked on, probably to be released in April, IIRC.
But yeah, based on what they did with v8 and 9, we're probably at least a year and a half away. Its a very small company with very limited resources, so they're R&D is very... deliberate (although the end products are good, albeit a tad expensive for a text-based game).
Team W L RF RA DIV WC American League East Baltimore Orioles 82 80 831 823 1.0 13.8 Boston Red Sox 97 65 941 765 77.5 18.0 New York Yankees 89 73 859 784 20.5 34.0 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 70 92 705 813 0.0 2.0 Toronto Blue Jays 80 82 784 785 1.0 7.3 Central Chicago White Sox 80 82 792 811 29.0 0.0 Cleveland Indians 81 81 815 810 28.0 0.0 Detroit Tigers 74 88 783 839 6.5 0.0 Kansas City Royals 68 94 754 895 0.0 0.0 Minnesota Twins 82 80 788 791 36.5 0.5 West Anaheim Angels 87 75 826 775 45.5 9.0 Oakland Athletics 88 74 831 750 44.5 9.8 Seattle Mariners 81 81 802 801 7.0 5.0 Texas Rangers 76 86 829 894 3.0 0.5 National League East Atlanta Braves 83 79 756 746 15.0 10.0 Florida Marlins 81 81 714 700 7.5 6.8 New York Mets 89 73 769 701 35.0 17.3 Philadelphia Phillies 90 72 765 688 38.5 20.7 Washington Nationals 79 83 692 695 4.0 7.0 Central Chicago Cubs 84 78 747 704 3.0 19.8 Cincinnati Reds 71 91 745 823 0.0 0.8 Houston Astros 74 88 707 786 0.0 2.0 Milwaukee Brewers 78 84 703 740 1.5 3.3 Pittsburgh Pirates 67 95 668 794 0.0 0.0 St. Louis Cardinals 98 64 779 622 95.5 1.0 West Arizona Diamondbacks 74 88 725 806 0.0 0.0 Colorado Rockies 76 86 815 864 2.0 0.0 Los Angeles Dodgers 94 68 762 652 87.0 2.3 San Diego Padres 82 80 738 715 11.0 8.5 San Francisco Giants 76 86 747 803 0.0 0.3As expected, their offense is competitive, but their pitching is still atrocious and now more expensive. Brilliant!
I believe that's the Rick Ankiel factor.
Really? I haven't examined their pitching stats all that much yet (trying to get through 100 to contribute to the total here), but I'll take some looks.
I guess if Ankiel does come back and perform up to his 2000 level, that's a big boost for them. But he's also out of options, so if he starts stinking up the joint again or isn't successful, they're going to be in a pickle deciding what to do with him.
Tendinitis or a muscle strain.
I'm shocked -- *shocked* -- at such a proposition.
UCCF - much of the difference between the Cubs and Cards in run prevention is defense, not pitching. The Cardinals project to be the best defensive team in the majors again next year. The Cubs look mediocre, at best.
I'm confused. Ankiel projects to be terrible.
No. I meant to say it was the Dusty Baker factor. Also, losing Sosa in RF doesn't help with regards to their defense.
Well, I'm being bamboozled left and right in threads today.
One thing I've noticed (which is kind of funny) in running these sims is that the Cubs underperform their pythag almost every season. I ran one year in which they ended up 71-91 but scored more runs than they allowed. The manager profile is eerily accurate. :-)
Hadn't thought of that. That's a big difference and kind of worrisome. The Cubs need to work this spring on training their pitchers to induce fly balls to CF and grounders to 1B.
That would explain it, since I was using 25-man for my sims.
How bad is the bullpen? Otherwise, that would suggest there is something wrong with the model.
The bullpen is so-so, about like the Cub bullpen would be expected to be. The usage is kind of crazy. Dempster will end a season with 28 saves, but you'll also look and see that he made 6 starts. I don't think DMB does the best job handling these pitchers with dual starting/relieving capabilities. I ran into the same problems with my ppl league team when the computer managed -- it kept putting my starters in as relievers even though they were part of the rotation and not designated to relieve.
Bullpen's probably better, defense is probably better, but Busch is also a lot friendlier to pitchers.
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