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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, September 14, 2006
2006 MLEs (Preliminary, Build 2)
This is the new build of the complete MLE spreadsheet and the Barebones version. All the known bugs from the first public version have been fixed, including a couple not discussed. Nobody’s said anything, but someone who really dissected the formulae would have seen a couple rather small, but stupid order of operations foibles I made when cleaning up my spreadsheet for ease of use. The effects on the results are pretty minimal, generally 5-10 points of OPS one way or another.
Another thing that hasn’t been brought up in the comments but I’ve received a few e-mails about is why I don’t translate any minor league pitcher as having an $H of greater than .320 in the majors. Essentially, while there are very good reasons to believe that minor league pitchers, as a group, are going to be worse at controlling balls hit into play than major leaguers, there’s also a practical ceiling involved. Once we’re up past .320, we’re at the level of how non-pitchers have pitched professionally and I have serious doubts that anybody with enough skills to pitch professionally are going to be worse at this than an outfielder stuck on the mound for an inning in a blowout.
For a decided unscientific examination of this, take a zone rating chart to a baseball game at batting practice and estimate what a major league team would have fielded. Even with a pitcher making no attempt to get the batter out, two-thirds of those balls hit in play are still going to get fielded by major league defensive players (I did this myself a few years ago after Voros suggested the “hitters’ pitching $H ceiling” to me in a conversation). In a weird DIPS twist that hasn’t been mentioned before (I don’t believe), Voros had also found pitcher height to be a positive in $H, suggesting that scouts are right in preferring taller pitchers in at least one respect.
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