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Saturday, March 04, 2006

2006 ZiPS Projection Disk for DMB 9.0 - Build 2

Changes since Build 1

- Simmable manager profiles
- Up-to-date rosters
- Manager tendencies (thanks SG)
- 2006 MLB Schedule
- Additional players (Hong-chih Kuo, CBW, etc.)

2006 ZiPS Projections for DMB 9.0

Dan Szymborski Posted: March 04, 2006 at 12:05 AM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. greenback calls it soccer Posted: March 04, 2006 at 05:24 AM (#1883243)
CBW signed somewhere? He'd be like Brooks Kieschnick crossed with Voros McCracken.
   2. Damon Rutherford Posted: March 04, 2006 at 05:32 AM (#1883248)
Thanks, Szym! You should look into sponsorship to earn some $$ for your time. Perhaps the Chips Ahoy ZiPS Projections. Or the Zippo ZiPS Projections. Great Clips ZiPS Projections? I'll stop now.
   3. EvilBoWeevil Posted: March 04, 2006 at 06:48 AM (#1883292)
Hey man, when ever I try to make it the active database I get unable to open the DMBORG file.
   4. Spivey Posted: March 04, 2006 at 07:32 AM (#1883319)
EvilBoWeevil: I've gotten that problem before with league files. If you close down DMB and then open it and try to do it again, it generally works for me. Sometimes it takes a couple of times.

Szym: It's about time. I don't let just anyone make projections for me.
   5. Spivey Posted: March 04, 2006 at 07:34 AM (#1883320)
By the way, these so called 'projections' project the Rangers to pitch over 3000 innings. Get your head out of the stat sheets and watch a baseball game. There's no way they'll pitch that many.
   6. Cheer and boo and raise a hullabaloo Posted: March 04, 2006 at 07:53 AM (#1883331)
Are Sacrifice Flies something you're actually predicting based on past SF? Or is it just a function of predicted AB's? Just curious.
   7. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: March 04, 2006 at 08:42 AM (#1883344)
By the way, these so called 'projections' project the Rangers to pitch over 3000 innings. Get your head out of the stat sheets and watch a baseball game. There's no way they'll pitch that many.


The point of ZiPS is not to predict playing time. It is not a factor.

In fact, the point of ZiPS almost isn't even to predict what a player will do. It's just to give an idea of a player's established level of ability.
   8. zonk Posted: March 04, 2006 at 09:01 AM (#1883350)
All the same though, it's still unfair to penalize the Rangers staff with additional innings, suck though they will.... I mean, come on -- Dale Mohorcic is long retired. But man oh man -- "MAH-horse-sick", has there ever been a cooler name pronounciation to spell out?
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 04, 2006 at 09:38 AM (#1883354)
CBW signed somewhere? He'd be like Brooks Kieschnick crossed with Voros McCracken.

Not that I know of. It's still nice to have CBW to choose from, though.

Are Sacrifice Flies something you're actually predicting based on past SF? Or is it just a function of predicted AB's? Just curious.

I just let DMB estimate SF for me. I've never researched projecting sacrifice flies and if I had the time to do it, it means that I've already made ZiPS better than Jesus and Superman and Aqua Teen Hunger Force combined. It isn't.

The point of ZiPS is not to predict playing time. It is not a factor.

I appreciate it, but Spivey's just trying to tease me.
   10. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: March 04, 2006 at 08:55 PM (#1883628)
No, I haven't signed....yet. I was just telling my girlfriend how cool it is to have a projection of me up there. I'm going to an open tryout thingy next week. I'm throwing around 80-82 right now, and it looks pretty sick on video, that is with the shin to kne high release point and the movement I'm getting on my pitches. Hopefully, I'll go to this tryout and the scouts will forget that I'm 28. If I could just pop an 86 or an 87 up there, I think I might get a chance. Else, it looks like Indy ball again this year.
A sidearmer by the name of Depriest signed with the Royals after putting up a good year in Indy ball, and he's 29, so there's still hope.
   11. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: March 05, 2006 at 07:30 AM (#1883930)
FWIW, DePriest was an excellent collegian (led the nation in ERA, was the top reliever in the Cape Cod league), who went undrafted before playing decently in the Expos and other orgs... a guy who was high on my list of "would have been nice to see what he could do had he gotten a chance" guys. He's also freakin' huge - 6-8 250 or so.
   12. sardonic Posted: March 05, 2006 at 08:58 AM (#1884019)
Thanks for this, Dan. Any chance of an Excel spreadsheet?
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 05, 2006 at 04:15 PM (#1884108)
I'll post the Excel spreadsheet when I get home. Wanted to get the disk up first - there are a lot more changes than with the straight-up projections, after all.
   14. Sexy Lizard Posted: March 06, 2006 at 11:24 PM (#1886052)
Derrick DePriest was a pretty good closer for North Carolina, and also the punter and kickoff guy for the football team. His leg was better than his arm, but big as he was he went through the whole punting motion pretty slowly and was therefore a bit too easy to block.

I probably saw him pitch 15 times in college and he's easily my all-time favorite Tar Heel. I mean, you've got a guy with a power forward's body throwing a low sidearm -- what's not to like? Eyeballing it I'd say he threw in the very low 80s. He had spotty control (obviously since cleaned-up in Indy ball). His ball didn't really dive like you'd think it would with that delivery, but he clearly befuddled most of the hitters who saw him. I can see why he didn't get much of a chance in the minors -- he never looked impressive, he just got people out. No idea if he could have been successful with more appearances.
   15. Sexy Lizard Posted: March 06, 2006 at 11:40 PM (#1886074)
I should say it (again) looked as though DePriest had spotty control. I don't remember him walking many people, but his location did always seem somewhat random.
   16. FredUD Posted: March 07, 2006 at 04:44 PM (#1886817)
Has anyone run through some seasons and kept reasonable stats on standings and playoff appearances that they'd like to share?
   17. ddp Posted: March 09, 2006 at 03:19 AM (#1889863)
Is the excel spreadsheet up for this yet?
   18. rjblakel Posted: March 09, 2006 at 10:28 PM (#1890978)
Noob here. Can someone please explain how to utilize the ZiPS .dat files? I don't see any executable in the zip file downloaded. Better yet, is there an excel version? Thanks.
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 09, 2006 at 10:44 PM (#1891005)
Couldn't find where I stuck the new Excel spreadsheet so I'm making a new one. The Build 1 spreadsheet is still available, however, at http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/szymborski/2006 ZiPS.xls and is 99.5% the same as what the new one would be.
   20. bibigon Posted: March 10, 2006 at 07:06 PM (#1892304)
In spite of my attemps to lean how to format this, I've failed. I'll just post these as is, and hope people can make sense of them.

This is through 41 seasons.

Actual Pythag
TeamWLRFRAW% W%
American League East
BAL0672.489.6737.3815.40.4470.450
BOS0697.464.6886.0720.40.6010.602
NYA0682.479.6812.8807.70.5090.503
TB0672.989.1728.6808.10.4500.448
TOR0680.881.2740.6752.10.4980.492
American League Central
Central
CHA0681.081.0760.8750.40.5000.507
CLE0685.976.1803.2733.30.5300.545
DET0680.481.6753.2764.00.4960.493
KC0663.898.2690.4850.90.3940.397
MIN0685.576.5729.3703.50.5280.518
American League West
West
LAA0687.274.8751.7702.90.5380.533
OAK0695.966.1802.4644.20.5920.608
SEA0678.283.8727.4760.20.4830.478
TEX0679.982.1822.6844.00.4930.487

National League East
East
ATL0682.179.9736.5732.20.5070.503
FLA0671.390.7664.1740.60.4400.446
NYN0688.074.0799.6737.90.5430.540
PHI0691.170.9779.5687.80.5630.562
WAS0673.188.9692.9756.50.4510.456
National League Central
Central
CHN0688.074.0759.0700.30.5430.540
CIN0667.794.3744.8862.80.4180.427
HOU0674.088.0685.6751.30.4570.454
MIL0681.880.2728.2713.80.5050.510
PIT0680.781.3703.9704.90.4980.499
STL0696.365.7775.7630.80.5940.602
National League West
West
ARI0672.090.0726.6823.40.4450.438
COL0678.583.5814.5847.70.4850.480
LAD0686.875.2739.8703.20.5360.525
SD0673.988.1677.7735.50.4560.459
SF0681.081.0727.1716.00.5000.508

I'm surprised how big a difference Build 2 made relative to SG's version of Build 1 for the Red Sox and Yankees. I just plugged this straight into DMB with no changes.
   21. Spivey Posted: March 18, 2006 at 11:03 PM (#1905823)
I'm surprised how big a difference Build 2 made relative to SG's version of Build 1 for the Red Sox and Yankees. I just plugged this straight into DMB with no changes.

ZIPS is very, very bullish on Boston's pitching prospects. PECOTA is not.
   22. bibigon Posted: March 18, 2006 at 11:57 PM (#1905999)
ZIPS is very, very bullish on Boston's pitching prospects. PECOTA is not.


That should have nothing to do with it, given that both Build 2 and SG's version of Build 1 were based off of ZiPS.
   23. Cheer and boo and raise a hullabaloo Posted: April 29, 2006 at 02:07 AM (#1995269)
Any chance of you posting at some point that in-season spreadsheet like you did last year? Where you enter the player's season statistics so far, and it re-calculates his Zips projection using both the original projection and the new current season data? That was pro nasty, as they say.
   24. Dan Szymborski Posted: May 04, 2006 at 03:42 PM (#2003720)
Yes. Have to fix a few things - will be available for download sometime this month.

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