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Tuesday, October 18, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks

2006 ZiPS Projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks.


Name       P   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Glaus     3b .265 .370 .535 115 419 68 111 24 1 29 80 67 107 4 2
Clark#    1b .269 .333 .552 115 279 36 75 17 1 20 55 27 75 0 0
Green*    rf .285 .364 .476 158 590 89 168 40 2 23 87 70 100 5 3
Tracy*    3b .294 .349 .460 148 530 69 156 31 3 17 70 43 64 2 2
Quentin     rf .269 .350 .428 134 432 86 116 22 1 15 58 38 69 7 1
Jackson     lf .279 .359 .423 131 426 73 119 29 1 10 55 52 56 4 4
Green     2b .284 .348 .434 137 489 86 139 38 4 9 53 43 72 8 7
Gonzalez*  lf .252 .342 .422 141 512 69 129 32 2 17 69 66 78 3 2
Cintron#    ss .285 .327 .426 143 498 60 142 30 5 10 54 31 42 2 3
Hill#      c   .254 .328 .427 101 342 44 87 30 1 9 46 33 90 5 3
Hairston   2b .259 .313 .449 104 363 56 94 17 5 14 44 26 84 4 2
Hammock     c   .260 .326 .416 83 262 32 68 16 2 7 31 22 52 4 3
Varner     lf .281 .333 .378 132 452 66 127 22 2 6 47 34 82 8 5
Stinnett   c   .248 .319 .388 51 129 12 32 6 0 4 15 12 33 0 0
Carter*    1b .249 .304 .423 126 449 68 112 19 1 19 64 36 71 0 2
Barden     3b .268 .311 .394 135 493 69 132 29 3 9 55 25 114 7 4
Counsell*  ss .248 .338 .345 137 505 65 125 25 3 6 41 65 64 17 6
Snyder     c   .235 .318 .372 121 392 52 92 21 0 11 46 43 80 2 1
Kroeger*    rf .253 .295 .413 138 475 70 120 30 2 14 57 25 117 9 3
Terrero     cf .266 .327 .381 115 399 58 106 17 4 7 38 29 100 14 12
Drew*      ss .231 .303 .410 66 234 36 54 16 1 8 31 22 51 2 3
Zinter#    1b .225 .290 .362 84 218 27 49 12 0 6 29 18 58 0 0
Ball#      cf .234 .310 .342 129 415 67 97 17 2 8 37 44 125 22 11
Gil       ss .249 .266 .410 111 393 48 98 20 5 11 45   8 47 11 6
Clayton     ss .245 .302 .335 143 523 60 128 26 3 5 44 43 100 7 4
D’Antona   3b .227 .279 .352 116 384 50 87 19 1 9 40 28 64 1 2
McCracken#  rf .237 .300 .307 113 215 23 51 8 2 1 15 20 30 4 3
Brito     c   .232 .276 .321 60 237 30 55 6 0 5 23 13 58 1 1
Santos     ss .217 .256 .318 121 434 50 94 14 3 8 41 22 101 2 2
Williams   cf .224 .273 .311 120 428 64 96 13 3 6 33 28 112 29 19

Name       ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Valverde   3.48   3   3 58   0   62.0   48   24   5   27   77
Medders     3.84   4   3 55   0   61.0   51   26   6   27   69
Webb       4.12 11 12 33 33   212.0 205   97 17   79 166
Bulger     4.18   3   4 54   0   56.0   49   26   4   28   57
Vazquez     4.25 12 13 33 33   214.0 212 101 30   54 190
Halsey*    4.30   9 12 31 30   178.0 191   85 17   47 110
Ligtenberg   4.35   3   4 53   0   60.0   62   29   8   16   51
Nippert     4.42   4   6 18 18   108.0 104   53   8   51   82
Worrell     4.43   3   4 66   0   67.0   69   33   8   21   52
Bass       4.53   7   9 27 27   159.0 169   80 20   45 109
Cormier     4.66   6   9 44 16   137.0 144   71 14   51   92
Lopez*    4.68   2   2 67   0   50.0   52   26   4   21   32
Lyon       4.68   2   3 39   0   50.0   54   26   6   16   38
Herges     4.76   2   4 63   0   68.0   73   36   8   25   46
Koplove     4.84   2   4 60   0   67.0   69   36   7   29   42
Gonzalez   4.96   7 11 28 24   158.0 175   87 28   39 112
Choate*    5.02   1   3 67   1   61.0   63   34   5   32   41
Groom*    5.06   1   2 53   0   48.0   55   27   6   16   27
Bruney     5.19   2   5 55   0   59.0   53   34   5   44   63
Gosling*    5.22   5   9 30 24   138.0 149   80 19   57   89
Villarreal   5.33   1   3 21   7   27.0   31   16   5   8   19
Ortiz     5.34   7 15 29 29   172.0 179 102 19   95 112
Vargas     5.36   6 11 32 22   136.0 144   81 24   56 104
Chico*    5.38   7 12 28 27   159.0 168   95 29   64 130
Daigle     5.45   5   9 37 19   137.0 157   83 22   48   75
Estes*    5.58   6 14 28 28   163.0 182 101 21   80   91
Stockman   5.66   3   7 39 16   105.0 104   66 12   71   84
Michalak*  5.92   5 13 33 20   143.0 175   94 30   43   71
Murphy*    6.02   4 10 24 23   127.0 131   85 22   80 103
Aquino     6.13   1   3 47   1   47.0   50   32   8   28   41

As this is the first ZiPS projection appearance in awhile, let me remind people that ZiPS makes no attempt to project who will be given playing time by Diamondbacks but what players can do based on their statistics and professional playing time.

Also, now that the TO has been updated to the new site, we’ll be back on a regular posting schedule.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 18, 2005 at 08:05 PM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: October 18, 2005 at 09:16 PM (#1691451)
bump!
   2. shoewizard Posted: October 18, 2005 at 09:21 PM (#1691465)
You won't hear much from me this year Dan. I've learned my lesson :)

Just a question about Drew: Do his numbers come out low mostly on the basis of his AA numbers, or just because of lack of minor league experience in general? I realize this is based on MLE's, but am curious how you feel about Drew and if he is a good candidate to outperform ZIPS.
   3. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: October 18, 2005 at 09:25 PM (#1691474)
How good is Jackson supposed to be? That line isn't that special.
   4. shoewizard Posted: October 18, 2005 at 09:38 PM (#1691515)
Jackson will probably take a year or two to develop his power.
I would take those numbers for his first semi-full season.
   5. Dylan Formerly in Phx Posted: October 18, 2005 at 09:56 PM (#1691563)
Since you're just starting this, Dan, I want to make the suggestion that you add a link to the 2005 ZIPS for the teams to offer a comparison or to see how the projection changes year to year.
   6. 1k5v3L Posted: October 18, 2005 at 10:17 PM (#1691610)
Jackson is supposed to add more loft to his swing with time, and turn a lot of his doubles into homers. In his prime, he's got a chance to be a 25 homer, 100 walks guy with .300+ batting average... and I'll gladly take that projections. I've read scouts describe Jackson's swing as being similar to Sheffield's, ie, he hits the ball really really hard and can spray line drives all over the field. All he needs is to start sending more of those over the fense--which should happen at chase field...
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 18, 2005 at 10:33 PM (#1691639)
I don't really have a quick link to Arizona projections from last year, but they can be found as part of the zips in-season spreadsheet in my secret stash.
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 18, 2005 at 10:35 PM (#1691645)
I don't really have a quick link to Arizona projections from last year, but they can be found as part of the zips in-season spreadsheet in my secret stash.
   9. 1k5v3L Posted: October 18, 2005 at 10:40 PM (#1691652)
and I'll gladly take that projections.

mind you, those are my own fanboyish projections... :)
   10. shoewizard Posted: October 18, 2005 at 11:00 PM (#1691683)
Dylan, have you done your projections yet? I know you gave us some partials at AZ Central.
   11. 1k5v3L Posted: October 18, 2005 at 11:19 PM (#1691702)
interesting rumor from scout.com's james renwick...

article

The Diamondbacks don't think Tracy has reached his full potential yet, and are now thinking they might be able to get at least as much, if not more, if they put young first base prospect Conor Jackson on the trade block. Because Jackson has just debuted in the bigs, small market teams like the Royals and Devil Rays might be more interested in him, because they'll be able to hold onto him longer without having to give him a long term, high dollar contract. Sources have confirmed to FutureBacks that the Diamondbacks have talked with the Minnesota Twins about a deal that could feature Gold Glove center fielder Tori Hunter coming to the desert in a deal that would include Jackson.
   12. Robert S. Posted: October 18, 2005 at 11:36 PM (#1691732)
Those look pretty reasonable to me for the most part. A few things stuck out on first glance, though.

Struck me as overly optimistic:

Clark - SLG
Counsell - GP, AB
Glaus - OBP
Hammock - everything
Bulger
Cormier
Halsey
Ligtenberg
Medders

As always, I have a quibble with the Webb numbers. Those walks - the hits as well, to an extent - seem high to me, though I can imagine why a formula would spit them out.

Out of curiousity, who is Webb being indexed against? Just how comparable are his comparables?
   13. Robert S. Posted: October 18, 2005 at 11:45 PM (#1691745)
The Diamondbacks don't think Tracy has reached his full potential yet, and are now thinking they might be able to get at least as much, if not more, if they put young first base prospect Conor Jackson on the trade block

Both of these statements are true, I think; too bad they're so wrongheaded for the team. It's going to be a long, long time before the Diamondbacks are relevant again.
   14. 1k5v3L Posted: October 18, 2005 at 11:55 PM (#1691763)
Agreed, Robert. Trading Jackson just because he's young(er) and cheap(er) than Tracy is just the type of idiotic thing the Dbacks would do, so they can watch Green eat grass in RF and Gonzo lob girly throws in LF. it's just infuriating to watch...
   15. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 19, 2005 at 03:47 PM (#1692565)
Does this mean that according to ZIPS, *IF* Arizona decided to play Tony Clark full-time next year, he would stil hit .269/.333/.552, with some 45 dongs and 120 ribs?
   16. 1k5v3L Posted: October 19, 2005 at 03:50 PM (#1692568)
No, Dan, Clark's knees will explode at plate appearance number 311...
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 19, 2005 at 04:15 PM (#1692626)
Does this mean that according to ZIPS, *IF* Arizona decided to play Tony Clark full-time next year, he would stil hit .269/.333/.552, with some 45 dongs and 120 ribs?

Believe it or not, there actually is a chance he could break through and hit 45 home runs (albeit one of the weakest 45 homer seasons in MLB history). Clark's a massive guy with a sick amount of power, the problem's always been harnessing it with his weaker other skills. The potential for that type of power has always been there - it's why the Tigers liked him so much once upon a time.
   18. 1k5v3L Posted: October 19, 2005 at 04:22 PM (#1692630)
Clark can really put some hurting on the ball, and send it to the deepest part of the park from either side of the plate. His biggest problem is his knees--they're shot. Toward the end of this season, he could barely walk around; I have a really hard time believing he can play every day.
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 19, 2005 at 05:26 PM (#1692776)
Well, that's all under that assumption he can limp onto the field. If he can, I don't think 45 home runs would be a major upset. I wouldn't be surprised if Clark had the highest average home run distance in baseball - his offense is not subtle.
   20. Brian Norton Posted: October 19, 2005 at 06:29 PM (#1692870)
Thanks for the ZiPS, Dan.

Do you have a ZiPS tutorial and/or explination document (i.e. where these numbers come from, what they mean, etc.) somewhere?

Thanks!

-Bri
   21. Robert S. Posted: October 19, 2005 at 08:29 PM (#1693081)
Clark's plate coverage isn't too good, either. I suspect that the rest of the league has identified his holes and he won't receive so many meatballs next year. He deserves credit for capitalizing on them and avoiding the piss-man, but it won't be repeated.
   22. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 19, 2005 at 11:14 PM (#1693408)
*IF* Arizona decided to play Tony Clark full-time next year, he would stil hit .269/.333/.552, with some 45 dongs and 120 ribs?

That would be one messed-up skeleton. No wonder he's had all those nagging injuries.
   23. shoewizard Posted: October 19, 2005 at 11:25 PM (#1693423)
Zips has Clark homering once every 15.3 Plate Appearances. That seems pretty reasonable. The question is how many PA will he get? As Levski points out, he can't play every day. If he were to get to 45 homers at the pace of one every 15.3 PA , than you are talking 689 PA, or playing all 162 games. I think we can be pretty sure nothing even remotely close to that will occur :)
   24. 1k5v3L Posted: October 19, 2005 at 11:31 PM (#1693437)
I heard Moorad has figured out how to grind up young flesh and inject it in Clark's knees. Conor Jackson, we hardly knew ya...
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 19, 2005 at 11:34 PM (#1693450)
I actually have a Mazzone/ATL factor programmed now that it has been verified to be a significant, verifiable effect, but given that there was some question as to where he would end up, I chose not to use it. We'll see if it holds up in Baltimore this year.
   26. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 19, 2005 at 11:35 PM (#1693451)
Doh
   27. Passed Ball Posted: October 31, 2005 at 04:36 AM (#1712200)
Is Valverde ready to be an elite reliever for the next few years? Or is he going to get hurt again?

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