BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2006 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, October 18, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks

2006 ZiPS Projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks.


Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 

Glaus        3b  .265  .370  .535 115 419  68 111 24  1 29  80  67 107  4  2 

Clark#       1b  .269  .333  .552 115 279  36  75 17  1 20  55  27  75  0  0 

Green*       rf  .285  .364  .476 158 590  89 168 40  2 23  87  70 100  5  3 

Tracy*       3b  .294  .349  .460 148 530  69 156 31  3 17  70  43  64  2  2 

Quentin      rf  .269  .350  .428 134 432  86 116 22  1 15  58  38  69  7  1 

Jackson      lf  .279  .359  .423 131 426  73 119 29  1 10  55  52  56  4  4 

Green        2b  .284  .348  .434 137 489  86 139 38  4  9  53  43  72  8  7 

Gonzalez*    lf  .252  .342  .422 141 512  69 129 32  2 17  69  66  78  3  2 

Cintron#     ss  .285  .327  .426 143 498  60 142 30  5 10  54  31  42  2  3 

Hill#        c   .254  .328  .427 101 342  44  87 30  1  9  46  33  90  5  3 

Hairston     2b  .259  .313  .449 104 363  56  94 17  5 14  44  26  84  4  2 

Hammock      c   .260  .326  .416  83 262  32  68 16  2  7  31  22  52  4  3 

Varner       lf  .281  .333  .378 132 452  66 127 22  2  6  47  34  82  8  5 

Stinnett     c   .248  .319  .388  51 129  12  32  6  0  4  15  12  33  0  0 

Carter*      1b  .249  .304  .423 126 449  68 112 19  1 19  64  36  71  0  2 

Barden       3b  .268  .311  .394 135 493  69 132 29  3  9  55  25 114  7  4 

Counsell*    ss  .248  .338  .345 137 505  65 125 25  3  6  41  65  64 17  6 

Snyder       c   .235  .318  .372 121 392  52  92 21  0 11  46  43  80  2  1 

Kroeger*     rf  .253  .295  .413 138 475  70 120 30  2 14  57  25 117  9  3 

Terrero      cf  .266  .327  .381 115 399  58 106 17  4  7  38  29 100 14 12 

Drew*        ss  .231  .303  .410  66 234  36  54 16  1  8  31  22  51  2  3 

Zinter#      1b  .225  .290  .362  84 218  27  49 12  0  6  29  18  58  0  0 

Ball#        cf  .234  .310  .342 129 415  67  97 17  2  8  37  44 125 22 11 

Gil          ss  .249  .266  .410 111 393  48  98 20  5 11  45   8  47 11  6 

Clayton      ss  .245  .302  .335 143 523  60 128 26  3  5  44  43 100  7  4 

D’Antona     3b  .227  .279  .352 116 384  50  87 19  1  9  40  28  64  1  2 

McCracken#   rf  .237  .300  .307 113 215  23  51  8  2  1  15  20  30  4  3 

Brito        c   .232  .276  .321  60 237  30  55  6  0  5  23  13  58  1  1 

Santos       ss  .217  .256  .318 121 434  50  94 14  3  8  41  22 101  2  2 

Williams     cf  .224  .273  .311 120 428  64  96 13  3  6  33  28 112 29 19 

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 

Valverde     3.48   3   3  58   0    62.0   48   24   5   27   77 

Medders      3.84   4   3  55   0    61.0   51   26   6   27   69 

Webb         4.12  11  12  33  33   212.0  205   97  17   79  166 

Bulger       4.18   3   4  54   0    56.0   49   26   4   28   57 

Vazquez      4.25  12  13  33  33   214.0  212  101  30   54  190 

Halsey*      4.30   9  12  31  30   178.0  191   85  17   47  110 

Ligtenberg   4.35   3   4  53   0    60.0   62   29   8   16   51 

Nippert      4.42   4   6  18  18   108.0  104   53   8   51   82 

Worrell      4.43   3   4  66   0    67.0   69   33   8   21   52 

Bass         4.53   7   9  27  27   159.0  169   80  20   45  109 

Cormier      4.66   6   9  44  16   137.0  144   71  14   51   92 

Lopez*       4.68   2   2  67   0    50.0   52   26   4   21   32 

Lyon         4.68   2   3  39   0    50.0   54   26   6   16   38 

Herges       4.76   2   4  63   0    68.0   73   36   8   25   46 

Koplove      4.84   2   4  60   0    67.0   69   36   7   29   42 

Gonzalez     4.96   7  11  28  24   158.0  175   87  28   39  112 

Choate*      5.02   1   3  67   1    61.0   63   34   5   32   41 

Groom*       5.06   1   2  53   0    48.0   55   27   6   16   27 

Bruney       5.19   2   5  55   0    59.0   53   34   5   44   63 

Gosling*     5.22   5   9  30  24   138.0  149   80  19   57   89 

Villarreal   5.33   1   3  21   7    27.0   31   16   5    8   19 

Ortiz        5.34   7  15  29  29   172.0  179  102  19   95  112 

Vargas       5.36   6  11  32  22   136.0  144   81  24   56  104 

Chico*       5.38   7  12  28  27   159.0  168   95  29   64  130 

Daigle       5.45   5   9  37  19   137.0  157   83  22   48   75 

Estes*       5.58   6  14  28  28   163.0  182  101  21   80   91 

Stockman     5.66   3   7  39  16   105.0  104   66  12   71   84 

Michalak*    5.92   5  13  33  20   143.0  175   94  30   43   71 

Murphy*      6.02   4  10  24  23   127.0  131   85  22   80  103 

Aquino       6.13   1   3  47   1    47.0   50   32   8   28   41

As this is the first ZiPS projection appearance in awhile, let me remind people that ZiPS makes no attempt to project who will be given playing time by Diamondbacks but what players can do based on their statistics and professional playing time.

Also, now that the TO has been updated to the new site, we’ll be back on a regular posting schedule.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 18, 2005 at 08:05 PM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

1. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: October 18, 2005 at 09:16 PM (#1691451)

bump!

2. ShoeGrit Posted: October 18, 2005 at 09:21 PM (#1691465)

You won't hear much from me this year Dan. I've learned my lesson :)

Just a question about Drew: Do his numbers come out low mostly on the basis of his AA numbers, or just because of lack of minor league experience in general? I realize this is based on MLE's, but am curious how you feel about Drew and if he is a good candidate to outperform ZIPS.

3. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: October 18, 2005 at 09:25 PM (#1691474)

How good is Jackson supposed to be? That line isn't that special.

4. ShoeGrit Posted: October 18, 2005 at 09:38 PM (#1691515)

Jackson will probably take a year or two to develop his power.
I would take those numbers for his first semi-full season.

5. Dylan Formerly in Phx Posted: October 18, 2005 at 09:56 PM (#1691563)

Since you're just starting this, Dan, I want to make the suggestion that you add a link to the 2005 ZIPS for the teams to offer a comparison or to see how the projection changes year to year.

6. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 18, 2005 at 10:17 PM (#1691610)

Jackson is supposed to add more loft to his swing with time, and turn a lot of his doubles into homers. In his prime, he's got a chance to be a 25 homer, 100 walks guy with .300+ batting average... and I'll gladly take that projections. I've read scouts describe Jackson's swing as being similar to Sheffield's, ie, he hits the ball really really hard and can spray line drives all over the field. All he needs is to start sending more of those over the fense--which should happen at chase field...

7. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 18, 2005 at 10:33 PM (#1691639)

I don't really have a quick link to Arizona projections from last year, but they can be found as part of the zips in-season spreadsheet in my secret stash.

8. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 18, 2005 at 10:35 PM (#1691645)

I don't really have a quick link to Arizona projections from last year, but they can be found as part of the zips in-season spreadsheet in my secret stash.

9. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 18, 2005 at 10:40 PM (#1691652)

and I'll gladly take that projections.

mind you, those are my own fanboyish projections... :)

10. ShoeGrit Posted: October 18, 2005 at 11:00 PM (#1691683)

Dylan, have you done your projections yet? I know you gave us some partials at AZ Central.

11. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 18, 2005 at 11:19 PM (#1691702)

interesting rumor from scout.com's james renwick...

article

The Diamondbacks don't think Tracy has reached his full potential yet, and are now thinking they might be able to get at least as much, if not more, if they put young first base prospect Conor Jackson on the trade block. Because Jackson has just debuted in the bigs, small market teams like the Royals and Devil Rays might be more interested in him, because they'll be able to hold onto him longer without having to give him a long term, high dollar contract. Sources have confirmed to FutureBacks that the Diamondbacks have talked with the Minnesota Twins about a deal that could feature Gold Glove center fielder Tori Hunter coming to the desert in a deal that would include Jackson.

12. Robert S. Posted: October 18, 2005 at 11:36 PM (#1691732)

Those look pretty reasonable to me for the most part. A few things stuck out on first glance, though.

Struck me as overly optimistic:

Clark - SLG
Counsell - GP, AB
Glaus - OBP
Hammock - everything
Bulger
Cormier
Halsey
Ligtenberg
Medders

As always, I have a quibble with the Webb numbers. Those walks - the hits as well, to an extent - seem high to me, though I can imagine why a formula would spit them out.

Out of curiousity, who is Webb being indexed against? Just how comparable are his comparables?

13. Robert S. Posted: October 18, 2005 at 11:45 PM (#1691745)

The Diamondbacks don't think Tracy has reached his full potential yet, and are now thinking they might be able to get at least as much, if not more, if they put young first base prospect Conor Jackson on the trade block

Both of these statements are true, I think; too bad they're so wrongheaded for the team. It's going to be a long, long time before the Diamondbacks are relevant again.

14. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 18, 2005 at 11:55 PM (#1691763)

Agreed, Robert. Trading Jackson just because he's young(er) and cheap(er) than Tracy is just the type of idiotic thing the Dbacks would do, so they can watch Green eat grass in RF and Gonzo lob girly throws in LF. it's just infuriating to watch...

15. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 19, 2005 at 03:47 PM (#1692565)

Does this mean that according to ZIPS, *IF* Arizona decided to play Tony Clark full-time next year, he would stil hit .269/.333/.552, with some 45 dongs and 120 ribs?

16. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 03:50 PM (#1692568)

No, Dan, Clark's knees will explode at plate appearance number 311...

17. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 04:15 PM (#1692626)

Does this mean that according to ZIPS, *IF* Arizona decided to play Tony Clark full-time next year, he would stil hit .269/.333/.552, with some 45 dongs and 120 ribs?

Believe it or not, there actually is a chance he could break through and hit 45 home runs (albeit one of the weakest 45 homer seasons in MLB history). Clark's a massive guy with a sick amount of power, the problem's always been harnessing it with his weaker other skills. The potential for that type of power has always been there - it's why the Tigers liked him so much once upon a time.

18. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 04:22 PM (#1692630)

Clark can really put some hurting on the ball, and send it to the deepest part of the park from either side of the plate. His biggest problem is his knees--they're shot. Toward the end of this season, he could barely walk around; I have a really hard time believing he can play every day.

19. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 05:26 PM (#1692776)

Well, that's all under that assumption he can limp onto the field. If he can, I don't think 45 home runs would be a major upset. I wouldn't be surprised if Clark had the highest average home run distance in baseball - his offense is not subtle.

20. Brian Norton Posted: October 19, 2005 at 06:29 PM (#1692870)

Thanks for the ZiPS, Dan.

Do you have a ZiPS tutorial and/or explination document (i.e. where these numbers come from, what they mean, etc.) somewhere?

Thanks!

-Bri

21. Robert S. Posted: October 19, 2005 at 08:29 PM (#1693081)

Clark's plate coverage isn't too good, either. I suspect that the rest of the league has identified his holes and he won't receive so many meatballs next year. He deserves credit for capitalizing on them and avoiding the piss-man, but it won't be repeated.

22. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: October 19, 2005 at 11:14 PM (#1693408)

*IF* Arizona decided to play Tony Clark full-time next year, he would stil hit .269/.333/.552, with some 45 dongs and 120 ribs?

That would be one messed-up skeleton. No wonder he's had all those nagging injuries.

23. ShoeGrit Posted: October 19, 2005 at 11:25 PM (#1693423)

Zips has Clark homering once every 15.3 Plate Appearances. That seems pretty reasonable. The question is how many PA will he get? As Levski points out, he can't play every day. If he were to get to 45 homers at the pace of one every 15.3 PA , than you are talking 689 PA, or playing all 162 games. I think we can be pretty sure nothing even remotely close to that will occur :)

24. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 11:31 PM (#1693437)

I heard Moorad has figured out how to grind up young flesh and inject it in Clark's knees. Conor Jackson, we hardly knew ya...

25. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 11:34 PM (#1693450)

I actually have a Mazzone/ATL factor programmed now that it has been verified to be a significant, verifiable effect, but given that there was some question as to where he would end up, I chose not to use it. We'll see if it holds up in Baltimore this year.

26. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 11:35 PM (#1693451)

Doh

27. Passed Ball Posted: October 31, 2005 at 04:36 AM (#1712200)

Is Valverde ready to be an elite reliever for the next few years? Or is he going to get hurt again?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

<< Back to main

Tuesday, October 18, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks

Reader Comments and Retorts

BBTF Sponsor

Support BBTF

Bookmarks

Hot Topics

Syndicate