BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2006 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, October 19, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves

Some highlights:

Smoltz - 12-8, 3.55

Hudson - 12-9, 3.68

Thomson - 10-9, 4.09

Hampton - 8-10, 4.50

Farnsworth - 67 IP, 80 K, 3.63 ERA

Giles - 311/387/480

Chipper - 273/383/497

Andruw - 275/356/549, 42 HR, 118 RBI

Marte - 252/346/457

Francoeur - 274/315/474, 21 HR

Salatalamacchia - 260/324/391

Pena Jr. - 234/266/317, 15 SB, 16 CS


Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 

Giles        2b  .311  .387  .480 134 517  89 161 42  3 13  66  58  86 15  4 

Jones#       3b  .273  .383  .497 126 433  68 118 26  1 23  79  78  70  1  0 

Jones        cf  .275  .356  .549 158 592  93 163 30  3 42 118  69 119  4  4 

Furcal#      ss  .282  .352  .431 148 613 106 173 30  8 15  67  67  70 32  7 

Marte        3b  .252  .346  .457 122 416  54 105 21  2 20  65  60  94  0  1 

Johnson*     lf  .262  .347  .442 133 462  76 121 24  4 17  60  61  97  4  1 

Langerhans*  rf  .266  .352  .435 136 425  70 113 27  3 13  53  54 102  5  5 

LaRoche*     1b  .267  .337  .452 127 427  55 114 28  0 17  65  43  87  1  2 

Francoeur    rf  .274  .315  .474 132 496  73 136 32  2 21  78  23 106 10  5 

Estrada#     c   .285  .342  .407 114 383  42 109 32  0  5  55  28  44  0  0 

McCarthy     lf  .268  .342  .409  95 325  39  87 17  1  9  40  31  78  2  2 

Betemit#     ss  .270  .336  .403 124 392  49 106 17  4  9  45  36  97  4  3 

Barnes       of  .287  .327  .405  96 328  38  94 21  0  6  38  19  29  3  3 

Franco       1b  .267  .332  .386 105 236  25  63 11  1  5  32  23  54  1  1 

Saltalamacch c   .260  .324  .391 135 442  63 115 21  2 11  53  41 106  2  1 

Thorman*     1b  .261  .313  .417 145 537  62 140 24  3 18  71  36  98  3  3 

Barkett*     of  .246  .314  .405  98 346  38  85 22  0 11  46  32  70  3  1 

Hollandswort lf  .264  .319  .413  94 235  27  62 16  2  5  29  19  46  3  4 

McCann       c   .252  .310  .408 105 341  44  86 18  1 11  44  26  49  2  2 

Pena#        c   .278  .323  .352  82 281  28  78 14  2  1  24  20  23  3  2 

Orr*         2b  .288  .326  .358 111 344  51  99 10  4  2  26  19  48 16 11 

Prado        2b  .271  .316  .354 114 421  58 114 15  4  4  35  27  57 10  6 

Esquivel     rf  .233  .294  .381 125 433  54 101 23  1 13  52  29 146  8  4 

Mendez       dh  .253  .284  .354  63 237  21  60 13  1  3  25   9  27  1  1 

Doetsch      cf  .239  .296  .315 133 486  66 116 16  3  5  38  35 127 14  9 

Perez        c   .236  .268  .352  83 233  15  55 12  0  5  26  10  35  0  1 

Jordan       lf  .229  .286  .322  64 205  21  47  8  1  3  20  14  35  1  1 

Hernandez#   ss  .230  .283  .297 123 404  46  93 12  3  3  30  26  60  5  4 

Snead#       cf  .222  .307  .276 106 370  47  82 11  3  1  21  40  67 30 17 

Bourgeois#   2b  .224  .281  .281 132 459  49 103 16  2  2  31  32  69 12  3 

Joseph       cf  .229  .286  .286 121 423  47  97 14  2  2  33  28 111 14  8 

Pena         ss  .234  .266  .317 136 482  52 113 18  2  6  37  18 107 15 16 

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 

Smoltz       3.55  12   8  31  31   213.0  202   84  16   54  150 

Farnsworth   3.63   3   2  69   0    67.0   52   27   6   30   80 

Hudson       3.68  12   9  29  29   198.0  192   81  13   57  128 

Reitsma      3.86   5   5  72   1    77.0   79   33   7   17   48 

Boyer        4.04   7   7  40  18   118.0  114   53   8   45   75 

Thomson      4.09  10   9  28  28   176.0  181   80  17   46  111 

Vasquez      4.21   3   4  50   0    62.0   53   29   6   32   66 

Hernandez    4.42   3   4  43   0    59.0   52   29   5   32   59 

Hampton*     4.50   8  10  25  25   152.0  158   76  12   59   78 

Kolb         4.58   3   4  58   0    53.0   54   27   4   23   31 

Bernero      4.65   4   6  37  10    93.0   95   48  11   36   64 

James*       4.68   8  10  28  27   148.0  147   77  21   56  117 

Foster*      4.69   2   4  56   0    48.0   46   25   6   22   41 

Davies       4.78   7  10  29  26   147.0  139   78  16   78  125 

Childers     4.80   2   3  48   1    75.0   77   40   8   32   46 

Brower       4.83   4   7  71   1    82.0   83   44   9   38   58 

Greisinger   4.85   5   8  21  19   117.0  129   63  17   32   63 

Lerew        4.93   6   9  29  27   148.0  153   81  21   59  105 

Sosa         5.04   6   8  39  15   116.0  117   65  14   58   80 

Ramirez*     5.10   7  11  29  28   173.0  189   98  25   63   79 

Ward         5.12   3   5  44   0    58.0   63   33   9   20   35 

Brooks*      5.13   3   5  50   3    72.0   75   41  12   28   55 

McConnell*   5.18   5   8  24  16    99.0  114   57  17   27   47 

McBride*     5.26   4   6  43   7    89.0   86   52  12   52   77 

Stevens*     5.27   6  11  25  25   164.0  182   96  21   69   88 

Powell       5.28   1   1  35   0    46.0   46   27   4   29   30 

Barry        5.32   3   5  41   0    71.0   64   42   8   51   67 

Devine       6.21   1   1  25   0    29.0   26   20   5   23   31 

Kent*        6.38   2   5  38   1    48.0   54   34   5   32   23

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 19, 2005 at 04:20 PM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 04:32 PM (#1692648)

ye gods. salt-dog for president.

2. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 04:34 PM (#1692652)

of course, no way hampton comes close to that projection...

3. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 04:35 PM (#1692657)

Yeah, I guarantee that Hampton's line comes out as 0-0, 0.00!

It's interesting for a "what-if" however.

4. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 19, 2005 at 04:43 PM (#1692673)

Does Sosa fall off that cliff with or without Leo?

5. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 04:44 PM (#1692676)

Sosa will fall off the cliff... the moment ATL trades him, to AZ :-(

6. Adam S

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 07:22 PM (#1692954)

Can someone explain the stars and pounds to me? (I feel pretty stupid for not being able to work it out).

7. Kyle S Posted: October 19, 2005 at 07:27 PM (#1692964)

Lefty/switch.

8. Dr Love Posted: October 19, 2005 at 07:27 PM (#1692966)

I believe:

* = lefty

# = switch hitter

9. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 07:28 PM (#1692967)

Can someone explain the stars and pounds to me?

I think Dan pounds you until you see stars in daylight...

10. CrosbyBird Posted: October 19, 2005 at 07:38 PM (#1692988)

Is Furcal a free agent? I read somewhere that he might be willing to play 2B to extend his marketability, but that might have been on a fanboy site.

11. CrosbyBird Posted: October 19, 2005 at 07:40 PM (#1692993)

Is Furcal a free agent? I read somewhere that he might be willing to play 2B to extend his marketability, but that might have been on a fanboy site.

12. CrosbyBird Posted: October 19, 2005 at 07:40 PM (#1692994)

Sorry about the double post, but I really wanted to know.

13. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 07:52 PM (#1693008)

yes, furcal is a free agent.

14. Gaylord Perry the Platypus (oi!) Posted: October 19, 2005 at 07:59 PM (#1693022)

yes, furcal is a free agent.

And his agent has made statements indicating he'd be willing to play 2B. Why take teams like the Yankees out of the bidding?

15. The Hop-Clop Goes On (psa1) Posted: October 19, 2005 at 08:23 PM (#1693074)

Wow...bbref has stats up a in October, Dan starts revealing ZiPS in October...what will we have to look forward to until April? I'm NOT resorting to basketball.

16. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 19, 2005 at 08:38 PM (#1693097)

I would guess that Furcal is willing to state he'd pitch if it'd widen his possible suitors.

17. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 08:40 PM (#1693100)

Furcal's arm would make him a hellacious 2bman. If he were to join the Yankees at 2B, Jeter actually would be the worst SS on the team... (and I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt over Tony Womack :)

18. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: October 19, 2005 at 09:37 PM (#1693233)

I wonder why ZIPS hates Brian McCann so much. He's going to kill that projection.

19. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 09:42 PM (#1693250)

Because McCann made the jump from really really low down there?

20. Adam S

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 09:49 PM (#1693265)

Is McCann a good defensive catcher as well?

21. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: October 19, 2005 at 10:04 PM (#1693289)

Yes.

22. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: October 19, 2005 at 10:05 PM (#1693294)

I suppose I should have prefaced that by saying I had been watching Javy for years, so I may not actually know what a good defensive catcher looks like.

23. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: October 19, 2005 at 11:08 PM (#1693400)

He's gotten Smoltz's stamp of approval, but he's probably only a good defensive catcher by Braves standards. Still, dude can rake. He's the best of this year's Baby Braves (excluding Marte).

24. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: October 19, 2005 at 11:11 PM (#1693403)

Are we going to have to adjust all these pitcher stats now that Mazzone is gone?

25. Spivey Posted: October 19, 2005 at 11:13 PM (#1693407)

You beat me to it, JRE.

26. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 19, 2005 at 11:36 PM (#1693457)

I actually have a Mazzone/ATL factor programmed now that it has been verified to be a significant, verifiable effect, but given that there was some question as to where he would end up, I chose not to use it. We'll see if it holds up in Baltimore this year.

27. Dr. Vaux Posted: October 21, 2005 at 06:38 AM (#1695836)

I've already decided not to take any Baltimore pitchers if I play fantasy this year. If I do, it's certain not to hold up, and I want to give it a fair chance.

28. Dingbat_Charlie

Posted: October 21, 2005 at 10:01 PM (#1697302)

thanks Vaux, we appreciate that.

I was planning to pounce on James in my DMB leagues - time to move him down the list a little.

29. bunyon Posted: October 21, 2005 at 10:37 PM (#1697353)

15 SB, 16 CS

Cox wouldn't let him run that much with this line.

30. Colin Posted: October 22, 2005 at 04:13 PM (#1697857)

How much playing time are you projecting for Chipper?

I like the francoeur projection. I know it's pretty mediocre for an outfielder, but if he could put up that over a full season at his age that'd be very useful. And that OPS would top the full-season OPS the Braves got out of both corner OF slots this year.

31. Honkie Kong Posted: October 22, 2005 at 06:18 PM (#1697952)

The Chipper projection is very low, and if he moves across the diamoond, that projection is going to be killed. Guess his 2004 numbers pull his projection down.
I cringe when I see Snead's name in the projection list :(

32. Coach Mr. Potato Head Posted: October 23, 2005 at 05:43 PM (#1699388)

Why is Josh Ward in the prediction? Does DMB randomly throw in players?

33. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 23, 2005 at 05:55 PM (#1699427)

Why is Josh Ward in the prediction? Does DMB randomly throw in players?

That would be journeyman reliever Jeremy Ward.

34. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 25, 2005 at 12:31 AM (#1702217)

Langerhans, the precious! We wants it, yes we does!

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Wednesday, October 19, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves

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