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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, October 21, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Baltimore Orioles

Hope Mazzone can up some of these!  Some highlights:

Ryan - 73 IP, 50 H, 100 K, 2.59 ERA
Bedard - 8-7, 4.04
Tejada - 303/357/511
Roberts - 295/372/432, 46 2B
Markakis - 266/333/398
Steroid Man - 227/317/359, 15 HR

 

Name       ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Ryan*      2.59   4   2 71   0   73.0   50   21   3   28 100
Ray       3.91   4   3 66   0   69.0   61   30   9   23   75
Bedard*    4.04   8   7 26 25   147.0 136   66 10   62 128
Williams   4.25   5   4 66   0   72.0   75   34   5   23   32
Maine     4.41   9 10 29 28   153.0 145   75 20   59 132
Rakers     4.56   5   5 61   0   81.0   76   41 14   29   81
Borkowski   4.61   8 11 30 26   162.0 179   83 21   39   86
Lopez     4.62 10 14 34 30   187.0 199   96 24   55 115
Rleal     4.66   3   4 50   0   58.0   57   30   9   21   54
Cabrera     4.67   9 11 30 30   160.0 145   83 14   92 140
DuBose*    4.71   9 11 32 24   151.0 153   79 21   54 108
Chen*      4.77   8 10 33 30   166.0 168   88 28   54 125
Baldwin     4.81   5   7 28 15   116.0 131   62 18   25   56
Johnson     4.84   9 10 26 24   145.0 151   78 17   59 116
Fiore     4.86   5   7 35 20   139.0 151   75 17   47   73
Stephens   4.86   5   6 24 20   126.0 136   68 22   32   85
Parrish*    4.93   3   3 50   1   73.0   66   40   6   48   67
Rodriguez   4.97   2   2 53   0   67.0   62   37   6   42   56
Bauer     5.00   4   6 36 11   99.0 105   55 12   41   59
Julio     5.05   3   4 64   0   66.0   65   37 11   30   59
Byrdak*    5.05   2   4 65   1   66.0   62   37   9   37   63
Kline*    5.07   2   4 68   0   55.0   57   31   7   27   32
Penn       5.10   7 11 29 26   143.0 146   81 22   63 112
Grimsley   5.16   4   5 63   0   61.0   62   35   6   33   40
Ainsworth   5.24   2   3 12 10   55.0   58   32   8   25   39
Finch     5.25   8 11 26 26   144.0 162   84 19   57   85
Bruback     5.43   6 10 29 22   141.0 152   85 23   61   94
Loewen*    5.75   6 10 26 25   130.0 133   83 12   93 102
Forystek*  6.13   4   9 23 21   113.0 122   77 22   64   80

Name       P   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Tejada     ss .303 .357 .511 162 654 92 198 46 3 28 113 50 74 5 1
Mora       3b .292 .366 .471 136 531 79 155 30 1 21 83 54 95 7 5
Lopez     c   .292 .343 .498 124 466 61 136 26 2 22 76 32 79 0 1
Roberts#    2b .295 .372 .432 154 627 99 185 46 5 10 70 78 83 28 13
Marrero     rf .273 .335 .449 64 176 23 48 11 1 6 26 16 34 2 1
Gibbons*    rf .273 .321 .463 138 510 65 139 30 2 21 78 36 66 0 1
Freire     1b .271 .337 .429 134 462 55 125 26 1 15 63 41 79 1 0
Majewski*  rf .279 .332 .432 114 412 67 115 17 5 12 56 30 58 14 5
Byrnes     cf .262 .331 .428 130 474 64 124 29 4 14 58 43 82 10 2
Pond*      lf .262 .329 .422 111 408 49 107 27 1 12 56 38 108 4 3
Matos     cf .281 .339 .408 126 466 64 131 26 3 9 50 35 79 15 8
Markakis*  rf .266 .333 .398 117 417 62 111 24 2 9 54 41 85 4 2
Newhan*    2b .270 .325 .414 125 444 78 120 24 5 10 55 36 86 12 6
Sosa       rf .227 .313 .409 119 440 35 100 17 0 21 67 54 106 0 1
Young*    1b .251 .309 .418 129 467 59 117 22 1 18 67 31 112 2 2
Bergeron*  cf .278 .332 .360 102 378 51 105 14 4 3 31 31 71 9 7
Castro#    2b .286 .331 .341 127 475 65 136 17 3 1 35 34 49 28 11
Reed       rf .253 .305 .391 111 399 49 101 20 1 11 46 24 88 5 4
Palmeiro*  1b .227 .317 .359 134 454 51 103 15 0 15 65 58 57 1 0
Fiorentino*  lf .243 .291 .402 106 383 58 93 15 2 14 48 23 94 9 4
Surhoff*    lf .260 .302 .344 88 288 30 75 10 1 4 32 17 34 1 1
Gomez     3b .257 .318 .325 88 249 26 64 9 1 2 23 22 25 2 2
Fasano     c   .217 .265 .396 75 207 22 45 7 0 10 31 10 50 0 0
Spears*    2b .245 .297 .330 109 400 50 98 14 4 4 30 27 77 5 3
Raines#    cf .246 .297 .342 130 456 63 112 21 4 5 37 28 102 23 16
Johnson     3b .219 .278 .335 132 474 50 104 21 2 10 48 34 104 5 4
Whiteside   c   .220 .266 .350 96 309 28 68 17 1 7 32 17 64 1 1
Nivar     cf .250 .283 .337 113 436 54 109 16 2 6 40 18 43 16 11
Huggins     1b .220 .294 .297 115 387 37 85 15 0 5 34 38 99 1 2
Gil       c   .225 .279 .306 97 346 35 78 16 0 4 30 23 57 1 1
Rogers     ss .233 .275 .322 122 429 51 100 21 1 5 37 21 70 13 9
Marsters   c   .203 .249 .303 101 330 34 67 18 0 5 28 17 78 1 1
Rine*      cf .187 .252 .246 117 402 52 75 9 3 3 24 32 91 16 7

Name           c     1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Tejada                               Fr/112                
Mora                     Av/127 Av/102 Av/139 Vg/109 Vg/100 Av/139
Lopez         Av/114                                      
Roberts#                  Vg/90       Fr/91                  
Marrero         Fr/100 Av/100                 Av/115 Fr/115 Av/115
Gibbons*            Pr/100                 Av/82       Av/70  
Freire               Av/100                                
Majewski*                                  Av/100 Fr/100 Vg/100
Byrnes                                   Av/110 Fr/110 Vg/110
Pond*              Av/100       Pr/100       Av/100       Av/100
Matos                                     Vg/100 Vg/127 Vg/100
Markakis*                                  Vg/100 Fr/100 Vg/100
Newhan*              Av/100 Av/100 Pr/100       Vg/100       Vg/100
Sosa                                               Av/125
Young*              Fr/100                                
Bergeron*                                  Vg/70   Fr/115      
Castro#                  Fr/100                 Vg/100      
Reed                                     Av/100       Av/100
Palmeiro*            Pr/100                                
Fiorentino*          Av/100                 Av/100 Fr/100 Av/100
Surhoff*            Vg/76                   Av/76       Fr/76  
Gomez                     Fr/108 Av/100 Fr/100                
Fasano         Fr/100                                      
Spears*                  Vg/100       Fr/100                
Raines#                                  Vg/100 Vg/100 Vg/100
Johnson                         Fr/100                      
Whiteside       Vg/100                                      
Nivar                                     Vg/100 Vg/100 Vg/100
Huggins             Av/100                                
Gil           Fr/103                                      
Rogers                               Vg/100                
Marsters       Av/100                                      
Rine*                                    Vg/100 Vg/100 Vg/100

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 21, 2005 at 09:37 PM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: October 21, 2005 at 09:47 PM (#1697259)
we'll miss you BJ.
   2. Starlin of the Slipstream (TRHN) Posted: October 21, 2005 at 11:03 PM (#1697392)
Probably should adjust those ERAs down with Leo Mazzone in the fold.
   3. dcsmyth1 Posted: October 22, 2005 at 12:00 AM (#1697442)
Sosa .227/.313/.409

My. how the mighty have fallen. Couldn't happen to a nicer, more humble, guy.
   4. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: October 22, 2005 at 01:47 AM (#1697516)
Dan,

Where are you getting those defensive numbers? What do they mean?

Also, from what I recall from last year, ZiPS is pessimistic when it comes to most pitchers. I really like Rakers chances to beat that projection, if given a shot. And Ray, if he could control the home run a little, would be a dynamite reliever. I'll say both beat the ERA projections by at least a half a run, and thats before the Mazzone factor.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 22, 2005 at 01:57 AM (#1697525)
Also, from what I recall from last year, ZiPS is pessimistic when it comes to most pitchers. I really like Rakers chances to beat that projection, if given a shot. And Ray, if he could control the home run a little, would be a dynamite reliever. I'll say both beat the ERA projections by at least a half a run, and thats before the Mazzone factor.

Overall, pro-rating the pitcher projections with reality, ZiPS wasn't pessimistic - it just saw offense at '02-'04 levels instead of '05 levels. Compared to league, outperformers were nearly identical to underperformers.

Also, you're looking at mean projections essentially, so the range is going to be smaller. But we see the overachievers at the top while the underachievers at the bottom end of the range are down in the minors playing poorly.
   6. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 22, 2005 at 02:01 AM (#1697529)
Sosa .227/.313/.409

My. how the mighty have fallen. Couldn't happen to a nicer, more humble, guy.


Palmeiro .227/.317/.359
   7. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: October 22, 2005 at 02:08 AM (#1697532)
BJ Surhoff .260/.302/.344

The Orioles need to lure Alomar out of retirement.
   8. Rob Base Posted: October 22, 2005 at 09:35 PM (#1698099)
Steroid Man - 227/317/359, 15 HR

PWN3D
   9. Bunny Vincennes Posted: October 24, 2005 at 05:35 AM (#1701027)
So BJ finally retired? Somehow I missed that. What an interesting baseball career he has had.
   10. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: October 24, 2005 at 02:05 PM (#1701188)
Jack, I was referring to the other BJ, the one we will be losing to free agency.
   11. Bunny Vincennes Posted: October 24, 2005 at 04:52 PM (#1701486)
Oh, of course, Charlie. I just assumed that Surhoff was going to finally pack it in.
   12. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 25, 2005 at 12:34 AM (#1702220)
Anybody know whether Aaron Rakers is related to the Jason Rakers who used to pitch for the Royals?
   13. SABRJoe Posted: October 28, 2005 at 09:10 AM (#1709073)
Jack, I was referring to the other BJ, the one we will be losing to free agency.

I thought he was talking about Denny Neagle.
   14. jingoist Posted: November 05, 2005 at 09:14 AM (#1719827)
You can bet your sweet bippy that neither "steroid-man" will be returning to the Orioles.
Sammy is toast; Raffy burned any possible bridges he ever had with his team mates with his fingering of Tejada as his source of the possible steroid.
The O's free up $10M+ by jetisoning those two plus a 41 yr old BJ Surhoff who finally hit bottom last year.
That said they desperatly need a power hitting 1B-man and an every-day LFer. A young catcher with promise should be high on the list as well 'cause the days of Javy catching 120 games are over; he needs to DH 2 out of 5 games.
   15. Bmore Boy (Thailand edition) Posted: November 16, 2005 at 02:18 PM (#1733727)
My hope is exhausted. If we're lucky, it'll be a coupla years - but I fully expect the O's to make at least one albatross signing this offseason with the dearth of talent available and Angelos' "best product" philosophy... which is essentially a Yanks/BoSox strategy minus the endless bucks (and intelligent front offices).

Can't we just officially rebuild one year so we can compete sometime in the next ten? We've got some good players coming up a couple years from now, when Cabrera might be a star and Markakis a solid or maybe plus player... but you know we'll be paying someone old $15 mil to rehab by then...

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