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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, October 23, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox

Some of the highlights:

Schilling - 14-6, 3.47 ERA

Hansen - 82 IP, 76 K, 3.51 ERA

Foulke - 3.73 ERA

Sanchez - 7-6, 4.24 ERA

Ortiz - 298/392/595, 40 HR, 123 RBI

Pedroia - 275/343/403

Freedom - 270/374/492

Youkilis - .400 OBP


Name       ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Schilling   3.47 14   6 30 24   174.0 166   67 17   30 156
Hansen     3.51   3   2 42   0   82.0   74   32   4   29   76
Timlin     3.67   6   4 77   0   81.0   82   33   6   18   55
Foulke     3.73   6   3 62   0   70.0   64   29   8   18   65
Meredith   4.03   5   3 65   0   76.0   77   34   8   19   52
Arroyo     4.07 12   8 33 30   188.0 194   85 18   47 118
Wells*    4.08 12   9 30 30   194.0 219   88 22   20   94
Papelbon   4.14   9   6 32 22   137.0 129   63 17   45 130
Sanchez     4.24   7   6 23 23   119.0 109   56 15   44 118
Malaska*    4.26   4   3 45   3   76.0   72   36   6   34   62
Delcarmen   4.28   7   5 46   0   61.0   52   29   5   35   66
Lester*    4.30   9   7 25 24   132.0 121   63 13   58 125
Dinardo*    4.30   6   3 29 20   115.0 112   55 10   34   90
Miller     4.33 12   9 27 27   156.0 154   75 14   65 122
Clement     4.33 12   9 31 31   187.0 181   90 19   72 150
Bradford   4.42   5   4 59   0   55.0   55   27   5   22   38
Mantei     4.50   2   2 38   0   36.0   32   18   4   19   38
Alvarez*    4.56 10   8 28 26   146.0 157   74 22   34   99
Wakefield   4.74 12 12 33 32   205.0 213 108 28   70 140
Pauley     4.78   9   8 27 27   158.0 173   84 21   45   97
Gonzalez   4.80   6   6 34 19   137.0 146   73 18   47   89
Bottalico   4.81   2   3 54   0   58.0   57   31   5   30   40
Tomoro     4.84   4   5 34   6   80.0   90   43 12   19   45
Cressend   5.20   5   5 40   3   71.0   77   41 13   22   52
Myers*    5.21   2   2 67   0   38.0   40   22   4   19   21
Harville   5.25   2   3 57   0   60.0   60   35   8   32   47
Perisho*    5.69   3   5 56   2   49.0   52   31   7   27   35
Narveson*  5.81   5   8 25 24   127.0 138   82 20   68   85
Bausher     5.87   4   7 34 11   95.0 102   62 20   44   79
Zink       6.07   6 10 29 19   129.0 142   87 16   82   70
Rozier*    6.58   4   7 21 20   93.0 108   68 13   62   42

Name       P   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Ortiz*    1b .298 .392 .595 148 560 99 167 42 2 40 123 88 110 0 0
Ramirez     lf .292 .389 .563 148 542 99 158 34 1 37 114 82 108 1 2
Nixon*    rf .294 .381 .499 113 371 60 109 24 2 16 61 51 61 2 1
Petagine*  1b .270 .374 .492 97 319 53 86 18 1 17 57 53 62 1 2
Youkilis   3b .268 .400 .417 109 343 59 92 25 1 8 42 67 59 2 2
Varitek#    c   .274 .361 .473 135 457 61 125 29 1 20 71 59 113 4 2
Mueller#    3b .289 .369 .441 137 481 67 139 34 3 11 62 57 67 1 2
Damon*    cf .297 .363 .437 145 606 106 180 34 6 13 74 64 66 18 5
Hyzdu     rf .242 .355 .457 121 363 76 88 28 1 16 71 61 78 4 3
Renteria   ss .299 .357 .419 151 602 93 180 41 2 9 73 55 78 16 8
Millar     1b .271 .357 .421 142 487 63 132 29 1 14 65 57 84 1 2
Olerud*    1b .260 .367 .379 124 388 41 101 25 0 7 50 62 47 0 0
Graffanino   2b .287 .349 .394 92 310 60 89 14 2 5 37 28 43 6 2
Pedroia     ss .275 .343 .403 106 400 71 110 20 2 9 47 41 37 5 3
Mirabelli   c   .241 .319 .428 54 145 19 35 9 0 6 21 15 40 1 0
Moss*      rf .273 .333 .401 137 494 82 135 24 3 11 58 42 112 10 4
Shoppach   c   .233 .312 .436 110 390 56 91 22 0 19 59 40 123 0 0
Cora*      2b .269 .334 .368 127 383 43 103 17 3 5 41 28 41 4 3
Kapler     rf .273 .322 .391 106 238 40 65 14 1 4 25 17 39 4 3
Berg       ss .267 .337 .353 95 329 45 88 20 1 2 33 35 55 1 0
McCarty     1b .238 .315 .394 105 302 44 72 18 1 9 42 34 67 2 1
Machado     2b .273 .339 .334 133 458 75 125 15 2 3 38 42 61 19 11
Figueroa#  2b .273 .317 .365 116 406 51 111 23 1 4 40 25 28 3 4
West       1b .247 .298 .386 130 466 49 115 28 2 11 49 32 80 1 1
Stern*    lf .260 .320 .392 83 288 45 75 19 2 5 31 24 44 17 13
Bailie     1b .239 .284 .406 75 276 34 66 20 1 8 34 17 69 2 1
Pinckney#  3b .253 .292 .386 117 427 63 108 21 3 10 48 20 79 3 2
Sandberg   3b .217 .287 .387 131 442 57 96 31 1 14 55 41 140 2 1
Wooten     dh .241 .300 .363 107 353 33 85 19 0 8 40 26 59 0 1
Ramirez#    ss .261 .310 .345 115 426 62 111 16 4 4 37 28 62 21 10
Murphy*    cf .246 .298 .361 123 427 59 105 20 1 9 48 33 74 6 5
Otness     c   .256 .295 .337 124 433 44 111 20 0 5 40 20 40 3 3
Ust       3b .234 .271 .359 120 435 47 102 25 1 9 46 19 98 2 2

Name           c     1b     2b     3b     ss     lf     cf     rf    
Ortiz*              Pr/130                                
Ramirez                                   Pr/125            
Nixon*                                              Vg/105
Petagine*            Pr/100                                
Youkilis             Av/100 Pr/100 Av/72                      
Varitek#        Vg/128                                      
Mueller#                  Pr/180 Av/88                      
Damon*                                    Vg/70   Av/127 Vg/70  
Hyzdu                                     Fr/100       Fr/100
Renteria                             Av/142                
Millar               Fr/130                 Pr/85       Fr/85  
Olerud*              Vg/55                                  
Graffanino           Vg/100 Av/90   Fr/124 Pr/130                
Pedroia                   Av/100       Av/100                
Mirabelli       Av/170                                      
Moss*                                    Av/100       Av/100
Shoppach       Av/100                                      
Cora*                    Av/90       Av/109                
Kapler                                   Vg/100 Fr/100 Vg/100
Berg               Av/100 Av/104 Fr/124 Fr/116 Fr/100       Fr/100
McCarty             Av/100                 Av/100            
Machado                   Vg/100       Av/100                
Figueroa#                  Vg/100 Vg/100 Av/100                
West           Pr/100 Fr/100                                
Stern*                                    Vg/100 Fr/100 Vg/100
Bailie               Fr/100                                
Pinckney#                      Av/100                      
Sandberg             Av/100       Fr/104                      
Wooten         Fr/76   Av/106       Fr/64                      
Ramirez#                            Vg/100       Av/100      
Murphy*                                  Av/100 Fr/100 Av/100
Otness         Fr/100             Av/100                      
Ust                 Vg/100 Av/100 Fr/100 Av/100 Av/100 Fr/100 Av/100

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 23, 2005 at 03:23 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: October 23, 2005 at 03:44 PM (#1699168)
ZiPS likes the Sox aparently. 15 pitchers with the ability to post an ERA under 4.50? That's pretty darn good. And it likes Nixon to bounce back, Youkilis to play well, and Dustin to match Graffanino. Liking Schilling and to a lesser extent Foulke is nice, but I'd guess any prediction system is going to have a hard time with them since their performances were so injury-related.

Dan, can you explain the defense numbers?
   2. Spivey Posted: October 23, 2005 at 04:33 PM (#1699232)
What are Hansen's numbers based on? Just his short stint in professional baseball?
   3. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: October 23, 2005 at 04:45 PM (#1699250)
The projections seem a bit optimistic to me, too, but from ZiPS lips to God's ear. I'd expect a few more age 30+ hitters predicted to do worse. Taking a quick look at the '04 numbers, I didn't see anyone who should expect significant playing time forecast to decline much, except perhaps Olerud and Graffanino, and I don't know whether they'll be in Boston and playing much. The banged-up, like Trot, are predicted to bounce back. Petagine will have trouble achieving these rate stats, or won't do it in Boston unless Papi or Manny is hurt (or traded).
   4. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: October 23, 2005 at 04:53 PM (#1699267)
PLEASE REMOVE KEVIN MILLAR FROM THE ROSTER
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 23, 2005 at 05:51 PM (#1699413)
Dan, can you explain the defense numbers?

Range grade and error rate as a percentage of league average. I really should leave the latter off - projecting error rates for minor leaguers is a nearly futile task.

What are Hansen's numbers based on? Just his short stint in professional baseball?

Yeah. These super-quick college-to-majors guys are annoying. But I couldn't not do a projection for Weeks or Street the last couple of years and I couldn't not do Hansen for next year.
   6. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 23, 2005 at 07:13 PM (#1699588)
ZiPS is really optimistic on the big minor league pitching prospects. I don't think many Red Sox fans really expect that Sanchez/Lester could be major league ready pitchers next year (I sure don't), but ZiPS has Sanchez as 4.24 and Lester at 4.30.
   7. bibigon Posted: October 23, 2005 at 07:34 PM (#1699633)
Dan, I'm curious...

I know ZiPS isn't a playing time projection, but I was wondering, where do the playing time numbers come from then?
   8. bibigon Posted: October 23, 2005 at 07:36 PM (#1699641)

ZiPS is really optimistic on the big minor league pitching prospects. I don't think many Red Sox fans really expect that Sanchez/Lester could be major league ready pitchers next year (I sure don't), but ZiPS has Sanchez as 4.24 and Lester at 4.30.


I think it's pretty likely that they would be productive major league pitchers next year. AA isn't the majors, but then again, both these guys owned AA to such an extent that ERAs of 4.24 and 4.30 aren't unreasonable translations of what that performance indicates.
   9. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: October 23, 2005 at 07:45 PM (#1699667)
funny, zips thinks that pedroia will be almost as good as rentaritis. and about 9.7m cheaper.
   10. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: October 23, 2005 at 07:56 PM (#1699697)
Dan,

Thanks. Can you give any insights on how you came to the range grades? Are you using a published system, or something you created, etc?
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 23, 2005 at 08:42 PM (#1699769)
Old UZR, recent ZR, scouting reports and such. I probably shouldn't post the defensive ratings.
   12. karlmagnus Posted: October 24, 2005 at 12:03 AM (#1700058)
Looks pessimistic on Wakefield to me -- probably makes the usual silly DIPS assumption about knuckleballers. Wakefield COULD drop off a cliff, but my guess would be, not for another 4-5 years.
   13. Darren Posted: October 24, 2005 at 02:14 AM (#1700474)
Not only would DIPS be a problem in judging Wakefield, age would be as well. As knuckleballers go, he's about in his prime right now.

Other than that, YAY ZIPS! You have given us a great bullpen!
   14. fret Posted: October 24, 2005 at 03:04 AM (#1700647)
Myers: 5.21 ERA, 21/19 K/BB

However, check out his splits vs. LHH for the past few years:

2002: .241/.347/.316
2003: .237/.314/.421
2004: .233/.322/.340
2005: .158/.196/.211

And, how about his wins above replacement (BP's WXRL):

2002: +0.9
2003: -0.2
2004: +0.4
2005: +1.2

We can't expect a repeat of 2005. Still, the 2002-04 Myers is still a solid contributor. During that time his K/BB was 84/61, and if it falls to even we may see something like 2003. So I guess if ZiPS is accurate, Myers will be around replacement level, but it certainly seems pessimistic to me.
   15. Catfish326 Posted: October 24, 2005 at 12:21 PM (#1701101)
Enough with the freakin' Red Sox. Hey, there is a pretty good World Series playing right now . . . and the Red Sox are not in it! Let it go, puuullleeease! I have Fever Pitch coming out of my a$$ already!
   16. villageidiom Posted: October 24, 2005 at 12:52 PM (#1701120)
Catfish, you might want to get that checked.
   17. AROM Posted: October 24, 2005 at 03:55 PM (#1701384)
Well, maybe you can be second.

Posted 10-18 in Sox Therapy:
I like Pedroia, my guess is he hits .280 with 40 doubles, 10-15 homers, and more BB than K.

He's too short to play major league baseball though. Any chance Dan Duquette can come back, release him and let the Angels pick him up?
   18. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 24, 2005 at 10:34 PM (#1702094)
kevin would rather feed steroids to children than give away Pedroia.

Am I right, kevin?

Catfish, relax.
   19. Catfish326 Posted: October 25, 2005 at 06:06 PM (#1703328)
Two Morons:

http://www.topplebush.com/photos334.shtml
   20. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: October 25, 2005 at 06:14 PM (#1703339)
The Mike Myers projection looks a little too bad...

Btw, if I had to chooose between children getting roids or Kevin Millar coming back... let's load up the syringes
   21. RobertMachemer Posted: October 25, 2005 at 06:20 PM (#1703348)
Neither one is a moron. They may have different politics than you do, but that does not make them moronic. Your statement does nothing to encourage people who have different political (and other) views to listen and possibly even learn from what you (I assume) would feel are more intelligent stances on political (or other) issues. Which may or may not bother you, of course -- that's certainly your own business. I just wanted to point it out, just in case.
   22. Catfish326 Posted: October 25, 2005 at 08:33 PM (#1703667)
Even a high level official in Canada openly called G. W. Bush a moron. It's the painful truth. Sorry. And, Schilling is a Nazi . . . he's actually been collecting Nazi memorabilia for years. Great guy.
   23. RobertMachemer Posted: October 26, 2005 at 01:22 AM (#1704053)
Even a high level official in Canada openly called G. W. Bush a moron. It's the painful truth. Sorry.

Well, if "even a high level official in Canada" openly calls him that, it must be true. I retract my earlier statement.


And, Schilling is a Nazi . . . he's actually been collecting Nazi memorabilia for years. Great guy.

A quick search online suggests (unless I missed something, and I may have since it was a very quick search) that the only source for this is Stan Hochman who apparently ignored the fact that Schilling has all sorts of WWII memorabilia in order to focus on the nazi memorabilia from which he drew the same silly conclusion you pretend to be making.

(1) Collecting WWII memorabilia does not make one a nazi. (2) Neither does collecting nazi memorabilia. One can be fascinated without being supportive. (3) Apparently no one has taken Hochman seriously on this until you. (Unless you're Hochman, in which case no one has taken Hochman seriously at all, though again, it's possible I missed something somewhere in my quick search of the internet).

So... are you just trolling then?
   24. E., Hinske Posted: October 26, 2005 at 02:16 AM (#1704192)
Even a high level official in Canada openly called G. W. Bush a moron. It's the painful truth.

Hmm. I'm a Canadian and I can assure you that while we've had a number of politicians and flunkies criticize Bush, none of them are taken that seriously here and many of them are pretty heavily criticized themselves. These same people are pretty bigoted against Americans generally and I wouldn't be too quick to jump into bed with them myself.
   25. Dr. Vaux Posted: October 28, 2005 at 01:08 AM (#1708827)
Even if you agreed with him, you couldn't deny he's a moron. Which, of course, would make you a...
   26. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 28, 2005 at 04:28 AM (#1708986)
This is going to sound odd here, but my SOSH registration was deleted at some point since I haven't used it.

I use 0.80 as an MLE base - there's no way Clay's using 0.70; we talked about this awhile back and unless he's drastically changed the way he calculates DTs lately, we're not very different here.

As for my MLEs overrating hitters - of all the minor leaguers , only 12 in professional baseball with 300 PA rate an MLE OBP of .360. Only 9 rate a .500 SLG. And you see a lot of good prospects on that list - Jeremy Hermida, Russell Martin, Justin Huber and a few guys who either have or probably could play at that level like Petagine. The only two real oddball names are Kevin Orie and Rick Short and both were over their heads this year (though I still think Orie's '97 is his real level of ability when he can stay healthy for more than 10 minutes)
   27. RobertMachemer Posted: October 28, 2005 at 05:47 AM (#1709032)
Even if you agreed with him, you couldn't deny he's a moron. Which, of course, would make you a...

Assuming the "he" with the missing antecedent is Bush, I can deny he's a moron. And do. And that has nothing to do with whether or not I agree with his politics. I'm familiar with really smart people. And with really dumb people. Bush (like most people) lies somewhere in between. (No pun intended).
   28. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: October 28, 2005 at 06:05 AM (#1709042)
In my awesome opinion, Bush is not a moron, he's just a person who puts no premium on human life and would gladly torture a child or special needs person just to watch them die.
   29. Answer Guy Posted: November 02, 2005 at 10:58 PM (#1716691)
In my awesome opinion, Bush is not a moron, he's just a person who puts no premium on human life and would gladly torture a child or special needs person just to watch them die.

I loathe the guy but wouldn't say that about him. He would, however, be the sort of person who wouldn't let it bother him too much if his friends were torturing people to death, especially if he somehow profitted from it. Not to mention that he's probably nowhere near naturally curious enough to kill someone to feel what it's like to watch him/her die.

But back to the topic at hand...if Schilling does what's projected for him above, the Red Sox will win the division like, to coin a phrase, Secretariat at the Belmont. While he showed some signs of improvement at the tail end of the season, I just don't see it happening.

They just better not trade Manny and get back Erstad, one of the few ways one could do worse than Kevin Millar at 1B.

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