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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, October 30, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds

Legal Disclaimer:  Any individual who adds up columns and assumes those are team projections hereby waives the right to not have Dan Szymborski hunt them down and corpse them up.  Any individual who assumes that the author is projecting Monty

Rob Stratton to take Adam Dunn’s job will immediately owe the Baseball Think Factory either $200 or 25% of their net assets, whichever sum is greater.


Name           P   AVG   OBP   SPC   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Dunn*          lf .254 .388 .560 157 548 105 139 31 1 45 110 114 174 5 2
Griffey*        cf .280 .359 .548 108 403 65 113 24 0 28 78 48 80 0 1
Casey*        1b .307 .367 .446 144 563 79 173 34 1 14 76 50 47 2 0
Kearns         rf .258 .349 .480 122 431 70 111 29 2 21 72 55 118 2 1
Pena           cf .260 .310 .534 107 335 47 87 14 0 26 66 23 114 3 2
Valentin#      c   .260 .332 .456 74 204 27 53 10 0 10 34 23 36 0 0
Lopez#        ss .273 .338 .444 146 556 87 152 30 4 19 75 55 109 10 7
Encarnacion     3b .262 .327 .449 140 485 67 127 31 0 20 73 44 108 11 5
LaRue         c   .246 .336 .430 113 374 42 92 25 1 14 54 34 105 1 1
Freel         2b .270 .364 .366 116 415 65 112 20 4 4 33 55 65 32 11
Zapp*          1b .253 .323 .434 134 470 56 119 29 1 18 66 42 164 1 2
Cruz*          lf .245 .330 .406 96 155 21 38 10 0 5 23 18 44 0 0
Aurilia         ss .262 .317 .396 120 432 54 113 23 1 11 55 35 72 1 1
Denorfia       cf .256 .327 .389 148 512 76 131 21 4 13 57 53 110 7 6
Smitherman       lf .239 .313 .390 134 456 52 109 31 1 12 55 45 117 5 2
Swann*        lf .243 .303 .400 126 428 52 104 24 2 13 53 28 96 3 2
Gutierrez       1b .242 .297 .393 117 433 50 105 25 2 12 54 24 63 0 0
Votto*        1b .235 .308 .366 131 451 59 106 18 1 13 56 46 128 6 3
Olmedo#        2b .265 .314 .344 106 317 38 84 12 2 3 26 23 58 4 3
Moran         cf .268 .311 .324 104 395 60 106 11 4 1 28 17 81 27 12
Stratton       lf .203 .256 .424 87 290 38 59 11 1 17 46 18 139 3 2
Bergolla       2b .256 .293 .330 118 442 64 113 20 2 3 35 21 59 21 10
Holbert         2b .244 .299 .341 106 328 43 80 16 2 4 29 20 62 16 14
Sardinha       c   .215 .262 .329 87 298 29 64 13 0 7 30 16 80 1 0
Lopez         ss .216 .254 .324 88 241 23 52 11 0 5 27   9 43 1 2
Lomasney       c   .202 .269 .262 64 183 17 37 6 1 1 13 16 76 1 1
Perez         c   .215 .256 .276 101 340 33 73 9 0 4 27 14 82 4 1

Name           W   L   ERA   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Coffey           3   3   4.13 59   0   72.0   80   33   6   13   47
Harang         12   9   4.21 29 29   184.0 190   86 21   48 140
Weathers         5   6   4.56 72   1   81.0   80   41   9   34   63
Belisle         7   8   4.73 40 19   135.0 145   71 16   47   92
Mercker*        2   2   4.74 74   0   57.0   55   30   7   26   44
Kelly           7   8   4.77 23 23   134.0 145   71 14   49   84
Wagner           2   3   4.81 52   0   58.0   62   31   5   25   48
Claussen*        9 12   4.85 28 28   156.0 161   84 21   61 123
Booker           4   5   4.88 52   0   59.0   51   32   7   37   75
Kozlowski*        5   7   4.91 24 24   132.0 147   72 16   44   83
Shackelford*      4   4   4.94 60   0   62.0   62   34   6   32   44
Rose           6   8   4.99 21 18   101.0 114   56 16   27   63
Ramirez         7   9   5.01 28 24   151.0 181   84 24   29   83
Hancock         6   8   5.01 30 23   140.0 152   78 22   46   91
Simpson         3   4   5.01 57   0   70.0   63   39   8   43   72
Germano         8 11   5.02 29 28   165.0 185   92 29   40 124
Hall           6   8   5.16 27 27   157.0 174   90 19   63 106
Weber           2   2   5.17 41   0   54.0   63   31   6   19   32
van Hekken*      8   9   5.20 29 28   168.0 198   97 27   53   92
Nelson           4   6   5.20 32 10   90.0   96   52 15   33   70
Hudson           7 12   5.22 24 22   119.0 116   69 19   61   96
Wilson           6   9   5.22 25 25   150.0 171   87 22   51   89
Bong*          6   9   5.34 28 16   91.0   97   54 16   37   67
Keisler*        4   8   5.48 29 16   115.0 126   70 19   48   82
Ortiz           7 13   5.54 31 27   164.0 191 101 29   54   93
Milton*          7 14   5.55 33 33   188.0 213 116 38   59 132
Robertson*        6 12   5.71 30 22   134.0 158   85 26   44   79
Valentine         4   6   5.76 59   4   75.0   75   48 10   51   65
Fernandez         5 12   5.87 31 25   164.0 202 107 30   55   73
Caraccioli*      3   6   6.00 28   9   81.0   86   54 13   50   64

Also, I’ve removed the defensive ratings.  They’re not really ZiPS projections and were just causing confusion.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 30, 2005 at 03:20 AM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Jefferson Posted: October 30, 2005 at 03:40 AM (#1711205)
Oh my God. I think you killed the front page of Primer!
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 30, 2005 at 03:43 AM (#1711206)
Crisis averted!
   3. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: October 30, 2005 at 03:46 AM (#1711207)
Milton's peripherals aren't so bad aside from that atrocious HR rate. I wonder how he would fare in a big park.
   4. RMc's desperate, often sordid world Posted: October 30, 2005 at 03:06 PM (#1711396)
Stratton would have a very hard time matching Dunn's numbers, having one leg and all. And he was a pitcher, with only a .224 lifetime average.

Plus he's dead: never a good sign.
   5. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: October 30, 2005 at 03:14 PM (#1711401)
So's the guy who played him in the movie.
   6. RMc's desperate, often sordid world Posted: October 30, 2005 at 03:32 PM (#1711411)
Fun fact: Ronald Reagan, who played Grover Cleveland Alexander in the movies, was also originally slated to play the title role in "The Stratton Story." Reagan, of course, was a President who played a man named after another President. But if Reagan has gotten the role in "The Stratton Story," he would've played a man whose full name was Monty Franklin Pierce Stratton.

(insert Twilight Zone music here)
   7. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: October 30, 2005 at 04:17 PM (#1711441)
Milton's peripherals aren't so bad aside from that atrocious HR rate. I wonder how he would fare in a big park

The outfielders would be very tired?
   8. Spivey Posted: October 30, 2005 at 09:38 PM (#1711753)
That's a pretty nice projection for Edwin Encarnacion, given it'll be his first year with serious time in the bigs. The Reds don't seem to have much offensive depth. They'll need everyone to stay healthy if they want to make the magical run for 75 wins.
   9. Morph Posted: October 30, 2005 at 10:53 PM (#1711829)
Kozlowski* 5 7 4.91 24 24 132.0 147 72 16 44 83
Shackelford* 4 4 4.94 60 0 62.0 62 34 6 32 44

Sounds like a an old Russian WWF tag team. You've got to love the Reds' pitching, year in and year out.
   10. Russ Posted: October 30, 2005 at 10:58 PM (#1711836)
The Pirates and Reds should merge... they probably have a decent team between them. The Reds have the guys who can hit, the Pirates have the rest.
   11. TDF, situational idiot Posted: October 31, 2005 at 03:08 PM (#1712425)
Legal Disclaimer: Any individual who adds up columns and assumes those are team projections hereby waives the right to not have Dan Szymborski hunt them down and corpse them up. Any individual who assumes that the author is projecting Monty Rob Stratton to take Adam Dunn's job will immediately owe the Baseball Think Factory either $200 or 25% of their net assets, whichever sum is greater.


So you don't have to hunt me down, is there a "ZIPS Primer" posted somewhere?
   12. Vida Blew Over the Legal Limit Posted: October 31, 2005 at 03:23 PM (#1712431)
Alas, the number look about right. Thanks Obie, for the wonderful diet of turd sandwiches.
   13. Vida Blew Over the Legal Limit Posted: October 31, 2005 at 03:27 PM (#1712435)
But, Casey's SLG, steals, and HRs look a bit high. But, he's great in the community. Hopefully he'll swing with his designer purse this year. ####### slap hittin 6'4" smiling ape #######.
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 31, 2005 at 06:02 PM (#1712756)
So you don't have to hunt me down, is there a "ZIPS Primer" posted somewhere?

It kinda got lost transitioning over to the new site.
   15. John Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: October 31, 2005 at 06:15 PM (#1712778)
what i dont understand is all those pitchers getting starts.i mean if you have 20 picthers getting starts then why is carracoli getting 9 starts too.that makes no sense.you should think about that before you make predictions.also bergolla is not playing that many games.kthxbye.
   16. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 31, 2005 at 06:57 PM (#1712846)
what i dont understand is all those pitchers getting starts.i mean if you have 20 picthers getting starts then why is carracoli getting 9 starts too.that makes no sense.you should think about that before you make predictions.also bergolla is not playing that many games.kthxbye.

I really should e-mail Nate Silver and if he got e-mails of this type, asking why he projected Stefan Bailie to be guaranteed 300 at-bats in the majors in 2005.

ZiPS projections do not project playing time and never will project playing time. Anyone who wants or needs computer projections to tell him what 5 starters Jerry Narron will pick to start or who Dusty Baker will refuse to play is using computer projections in a manner they are singularly unsuited for.

A computer projection of 0-0, 0.00 for Lance Caraccioli is absolutely useless. I'm endeavoring to make the best tool for what the numbers say about a player, not the best tool for rotisserie drafts. Computer projections are not human predictions.
   17. TDF, situational idiot Posted: October 31, 2005 at 06:58 PM (#1712848)
So you don't have to hunt me down, is there a "ZIPS Primer" posted somewhere?

It kinda got lost transitioning over to the new site.


Then physical violence is out of the question.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 31, 2005 at 07:12 PM (#1712882)
Maybe I can explain this a little better.

Lance Caraccioli being projected at a 6.00 ERA in 81 innings doesn't mean the computer expects him to end up with a 6.00 ERA in 81 innings for the Reds. Rather, a 6.00 MLB-equivalent performance, which might end up being 81 innings of 6.00 baseball for the Reds or (say) a 5.00 ERA in 81 innings at AAA or any mix in-between. Does this make any more sense?
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 31, 2005 at 07:13 PM (#1712886)
Then physical violence is out of the question.

I'm not forcing anyone</I> to waive their right to freedom from harm!
   20. Passed Ball Posted: October 31, 2005 at 07:17 PM (#1712900)
Free Rob Stratton.
Or not.

Is Ryan Wagner no longer a future stud reliever?
   21. John Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: October 31, 2005 at 07:18 PM (#1712903)
Gotcha Dan. :)

-Burley
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 31, 2005 at 07:37 PM (#1712943)
Doh!
   23. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 31, 2005 at 07:44 PM (#1712952)
Is Ryan Wagner no longer a future stud reliever?

Not until he learns something with which he can get people out consistently. Right now his hard stuff is hittable and he has nothing else with which he can counter, so people can sit on the fast ball.

-- MWE
   24. Dewey, Crackpot and Soupuss Posted: October 31, 2005 at 10:00 PM (#1713220)
You skipped the White Sox, Dan.

That makes me a sad panda.
   25. Damon Rutherford Posted: October 31, 2005 at 10:30 PM (#1713281)
They'll need everyone to stay healthy if they want to make the magical run for 75 wins.

No, no! A great Christmas present would be to learn of an injury to a body part on Eric Milton that will keep him out of the rotation for the next two years.

Unless of course you were just referring to the offense. As pointed out in a couple of articles lately, the Reds' lousy fieldling is a significant cost that comes from this particular group of players generating this NL-leading offense. Unfortunately, dropping Casey and moving Dunn to 1B, as well as trading Griffey to the AL so he can DH, is probably not in their plans.

This team should be below average for quite some time, especially since their farm system isn't good and the Reds rarely sign a free agent who has a significant positive impact.

I hope I'm wrong.
   26. TDF, situational idiot Posted: October 31, 2005 at 10:46 PM (#1713319)
Lance Caraccioli being projected at a 6.00 ERA in 81 innings doesn't mean the computer expects him to end up with a 6.00 ERA in 81 innings for the Reds. Rather, a 6.00 MLB-equivalent performance, which might end up being 81 innings of 6.00 baseball for the Reds or (say) a 5.00 ERA in 81 innings at AAA or any mix in-between. Does this make any more sense?


Why didn't you just say that to begin with?

And I agree - Free Rob Stratton!
   27. TDF, situational idiot Posted: October 31, 2005 at 10:55 PM (#1713340)
the Reds rarely sign a free agent who has a significant positive impact.


This is just not true.

I count 5 FA signings last offseason: one (Milton) was terrible and expensive; one (Weber) was bad and cheap; one (Randa) was good and turned into prospects; and 2 (Aurillia and Merker) were good and cheap.

I'd say 3 for 5 is much better than "rarely".
   28. TDF, situational idiot Posted: October 31, 2005 at 10:58 PM (#1713348)
And in my haste, I forgot Weathers (cheap and decent).
   29. Dr. Vaux Posted: October 31, 2005 at 11:01 PM (#1713356)
God, Dan, 25% of my net assets might be more than $200...

Well, let's see... pretty new computer, probably about $600. A whole lot of old books, with the rare ones not particulary in-demand, probably $200-300 for all several hundred. Clothes, maybe $25. Some old instruments, some of very high quality, probably I could sell for $2,000 total. Pretty decent bed, maybe $200. A lot of stuff only definable to the public as "junk," maybe $75 total. So, Vaux's total assets are... about $3,100. 25%: $775. It's a good thing I don't think ZIPS project playing timee.

My playing-time projections, however, used in conjunction with ZIPS, correctly predicted the division winner in every division this year except the AL East and NL East (and whose system predicts that one?).
It had the White Sox tied with the Twins for the AL Central title, the Yankees one game behind the Red Sox, and the Braves with three fewer wins than the Phillies. The only team that made the playoffs that it didn't pick to make 'em was Houston, and of course the poor Phils got shafted again. The long and short of it: ZIPS are really accurate statistical projections. This is the second year in a row that they've been almost 100% accurate adjusted for playing time.
   30. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 31, 2005 at 11:24 PM (#1713417)
And I agree - Free Rob Stratton!

To what purpose? There is no evidence that Rob Stratton can make contact often enough to help a major league team.

-- MWE
   31. Damon Rutherford Posted: November 01, 2005 at 06:50 AM (#1714132)
one (Randa) was good and turned into prospects; and 2 (Aurillia and Merker) were good and cheap.

OK, let me reword it then, because I wasn't very clear. (And I don't know the answer to this question yet.) When was the last time the Reds signed a free agent who was very, very good -- better than Randa or Aurilia and their 20 to 30 VORP or 10 to 20 Win Shares performances. I'll have to look for one when I'm at work today.

I'm not saying they need to sign a great player via free agency to compete, but if they're don't, they're going to have to develop great players from their farm system and then sign the Randas and Aurilias and Weathers to fill in the gaps. It's not happening, especially with regards to the pitching.
   32. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 01, 2005 at 05:44 PM (#1714517)
I'm not saying they need to sign a great player via free agency to compete, but if they're don't, they're going to have to develop great players from their farm system

When it comes to the pitching, it would be a huge step up if the Reds developed even a good starter for their rotation at some point. The most recent starter the Reds developed to ever have a league-average full season with the Reds was Jack Armstrong, drafted in 1987.
   33. Vida Blew Over the Legal Limit Posted: November 01, 2005 at 08:14 PM (#1714785)
Just curious here but how does everyone feel about the limited innings at Dayton? Harmful?
   34. TDF, situational idiot Posted: November 01, 2005 at 08:44 PM (#1714837)
OK, let me reword it then, because I wasn't very clear. (And I don't know the answer to this question yet.) When was the last time the Reds signed a free agent who was very, very good -- better than Randa or Aurilia and their 20 to 30 VORP or 10 to 20 Win Shares performances. I'll have to look for one when I'm at work today.

I'm not saying they need to sign a great player via free agency to compete, but if they're don't, they're going to have to develop great players from their farm system and then sign the Randas and Aurilias and Weathers to fill in the gaps.


Ok, but this is unfair. They have traded for some guys (Griffey, Vaughn, Cameron, Jiminez, Casey, Pena) who had one or more great years; developed others (Dunn, Kearns, the Boones). It's been a while where one or 2 FA signings would make them winners (hell, I was the voice of reason around here when they traded for Jr., saying that he wouldn't instantly turn them into Series champs).

And for whatever reason, no one who has worked in the front office the past 20 years can evaluate pitching talent.
   35. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 01, 2005 at 09:42 PM (#1714934)
Their offense is pretty damn good. Millwood and Burnett would probably make them division or wildcard winners.
   36. Vida Blew Over the Legal Limit Posted: November 01, 2005 at 11:34 PM (#1715089)
Millwood and Burnett would probably make them division or wildcard winners.

Why would anyone assume that:
a) Uncle Carl would spend the money necessary to bring in a real free agent pitcher?
b) Obie and/or Shitheel Allen would have enough sense to evaluate each free agent's talents correctly?
c) said free-agents would want to come play in a band box and have their numbers explode?
   37. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 01, 2005 at 11:36 PM (#1715095)
Just curious here but how does everyone feel about the limited innings at Dayton? Harmful?

I don't think so. The Reds have had a fair number of guys blow out arms in the past couple of years, and I think they're understandably being cautious with guys like Bailey as a result.

Bailey, by the way, had some pretty good outings late in the season after struggling early, including a 5-inning, 2-hit, 11-K effort.

-- MWE
   38. Damon Rutherford Posted: November 02, 2005 at 06:53 AM (#1715502)
They have traded for some guys (Griffey, Vaughn, Cameron, Jiminez, Casey, Pena) who had one or more great years; developed others (Dunn, Kearns, the Boones)

The Griffey trade has been disappointing, they gave up Cameron to acquire Griffey, Vaughn only played one season, Jimenez exploded, Casey has had two great seasons but within 7.5 seasons, Kearns can't stay healthy, only Aaron Boone of the Boone Bros. was drafted by the Reds and wasn't anything special, and Bret was drafted by the Mariners and really only had one great year with the Reds.

They have had some success with relievers (Graves initially, Williamson, etc.), and Dunn has been very good.

But despite all of this, the hitting in 2005 was a nice surprise. I don't have much faith that they can maintain it, though. And what's the point if their pitching and fielding are going to be lousy again?

And I give the Reds zero chance of signing Millwood and/or Burnett.
   39. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 02, 2005 at 08:14 PM (#1716339)
Speaking of Jimenez - Dan, what's his projection?
   40. Voros M. Posted: November 11, 2005 at 11:32 PM (#1728488)
Yeah, where exactly is D'Angelo?

I realize he had a bad 105 at bats and it's certainly fair to question his level of effort, but you'd think he'd get another crack at a bench spot (at least) soemwhere.
   41. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 12, 2005 at 03:10 AM (#1728733)
Why would anyone assume that:
a) Uncle Carl would spend the money necessary to bring in a real free agent pitcher?
b) Obie and/or Shitheel Allen would have enough sense to evaluate each free agent's talents correctly?
c) said free-agents would want to come play in a band box and have their numbers explode?


Precisely. My point was that there are two free-agent pitchers who would make the Reds a serious contender. These are the reasons why they've got no chance to become one.

Isn't "Great American" a pretty much neutral park, regarless of what the commentators say? I know it has a higher-then-average HR rate, but I thought its run-scoring in total was average. (except when the Cardinals' staff pitches there, of course...)
   42. 1k5v3L Posted: November 18, 2005 at 09:22 PM (#1737567)
Reds purchased the contracts of RHP Travis Chick and first baseman Joey Votto.

The Reds are leaving injured former top picks Chris Gruler and Thomas Pauly unprotected. More interesting as potential Rule 5 picks are right-handed relievers Carlos Guevara and David Shafer. Also, outfielders Chris Dickerson and Javon Moran are available. Nov. 18 - 2:49 pm et



Reds activated RHP Paul Wilson and LHP Jung Keun Bong from the 60-day disabled list.
Wilson, who underwent surgery in June to repair a torn labrum, hopes to be ready to compete for a rotation spot in spring training. Bong will likely return to Triple-A. Nov. 18 - 2:41 pm et



Reds designated LHP Ben Kozlowski for assignment.
Kozlowski, claimed off waivers from the Rangers a year ago, went 6-7 with a 4.21 ERA, 181 H and 112/49 K/BB in 156 IP while making 20 starts for Double-A Chattanooga and eight for Triple-A Louisville last season. He hasn't displayed the same kind of talent since undergoing Tommy John surgery in June 2003. Nov. 18 - 2:38 pm et
   43. The Ghost of Archi Cianfrocco Posted: November 23, 2005 at 06:24 PM (#1743995)
Kearns rf .258 .349 .480 122 431 70 111 29 2 21 72 55 118 2 1


431 AB's? I want to belive it, but I just don't see it. This is a guy who may go down in history as making Larry Walker look durable.
   44. Ziggy Posted: November 26, 2005 at 10:46 PM (#1747300)
Dear god this team needs pitching. Deal Casey for someone with an arm and move Grif. to 1B. I doubt his contract is tradable unless the Reds eat a bunch of it. Encarnacion is, what, 21? He'll learn next year and be good the year after. Dunn needs a long term contract immediately. I hear that he, for whatever reason, likes Cincinnati, so the Reds should convince him to stay. Lopez has promise, and Pena is useful even if he can't get on base. They just need pitching. Lots and lots of pitching.

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