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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, November 05, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Colorado Rockies


Name           W   L   ERA   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Fuentes*        4   3   3.68 71   0   71.0   59   29   5   31   80
Speier           3   3   4.14 64   0   74.0   71   34   5   29   58
Miller           3   2   4.17 56   0   54.0   46   25   7   23   65
Seay*          1   2   4.50 43   0   48.0   47   24   5   18   41
Kim             8   9   4.56 42 19   140.0 137   71 14   58 109
Miceli           4   4   4.57 58   0   65.0   62   33   9   26   59
Day             7   9   4.61 25 20   119.0 124   61 11   51   66
Francis*        11 14   4.64 31 31   190.0 197   98 24   59 154
Cook           6   7   4.66 26 21   137.0 157   71 10   41   51
Neal           3   4   4.71 53   0   65.0   70   34   6   23   44
Tsao           5   6   4.77 23 18   117.0 116   62 19   40   99
Carvajal         1   2   4.91 38   0   66.0   65   36   6   34   54
DeJean           4   5   4.94 65   0   71.0   72   39   6   36   57
Randall         5   8   5.10 35 12   113.0 122   64 12   48   70
Dohmann         3   4   5.13 60   1   79.0   76   45 14   35   83
Esposito         7 11   5.14 28 28   170.0 198   97 26   46   91
Parker*          7 12   5.23 26 24   148.0 177   86 20   39   63
Acevedo         5   8   5.24 39 17   122.0 138   71 21   34   79
Cortes           1   2   5.25 55   0   60.0   63   35 14   15   43
Chavez           5   9   5.39 28 21   142.0 156   85 22   55   93
Jennings         7 13   5.39 28 28   177.0 195 106 19   83 110
McClellan         4   6   5.42 33 16   118.0 132   71 19   43   79
Williams*        3   7   5.55 61   0   73.0   73   45   9   45   57
Kim             4   9   5.61 35 20   138.0 157   86 22   53   82
Drew           3   6   5.69 24 13   87.0   99   55 14   35   50
Hampson*        6 13   5.74 27 27   163.0 183 104 26   73 103
Wright           7 14   5.81 33 29   178.0 196 115 26   91 110
Bevis           2   5   5.95 52   0   65.0   69   43 11   37   50
Anderson         2   4   6.00 50   0   54.0   59   36 10   28   40
Jimenez         4   9   6.13 23 22   119.0 126   81 21   71 102
Phelps           3   7   6.13 42   7   91.0 101   62 20   41   70

Name           P   AVG   OBP   SPC   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Helton*        1b .334 .457 .571 151 539 104 180 47 3 25 91 121 72 2 1
Piedra*        cf .298 .358 .533 118 383 69 114 36 3 16 63 34 89 5 4
Shealy         1b .293 .364 .494 132 447 81 131 31 1 19 70 41 103 2 0
Hawpe*        rf .282 .357 .506 116 387 59 109 20 2 21 64 46 89 3 3
Atkins         3b .307 .370 .464 143 524 81 161 35 1 15 75 50 64 0 2
Holliday       lf .298 .356 .486 135 514 77 153 30 5 19 74 42 82 10 5
Gonzalez       2b .303 .354 .441 121 399 56 121 23 1 10 48 27 55 2 4
Davis         lf .272 .335 .494 106 334 56 91 21 1 17 52 29 128 8 6
Mohr           rf .258 .340 .465 112 299 47 77 19 2 13 41 36 86 3 2
Wilson         c   .255 .344 .443 74 212 36 54 16 0 8 31 29 54 0 0
Bigbie*        lf .284 .353 .421 117 401 56 114 21 2 10 47 43 89 6 3
Ardoin         c   .263 .355 .414 103 304 37 80 17 1 9 38 34 86 2 2
Sullivan*      lf .303 .356 .400 141 482 80 146 24 4 5 45 35 84 11 7
Spilborghs       lf .279 .348 .420 131 462 82 129 32 3 9 52 45 103 8 7
Barmes         ss .289 .333 .433 125 501 84 145 34 1 12 57 23 57 11 9
Miller         cf .262 .361 .394 118 424 83 111 14 3 12 44 62 103 15 13
Miles#        2b .300 .339 .402 133 507 74 152 22 3 8 50 29 47 8 6
Baker         3b .263 .326 .414 84 297 48 78 19 1 8 37 24 77 2 1
Stewart*        3b .263 .320 .426 122 448 85 118 20 4 15 56 34 112 7 4
Greene         c   .258 .294 .468 63 186 19 48 9 0 10 29   9 34 0 0
Closser#        c   .256 .329 .399 113 371 56 95 22 2 9 43 39 66 1 1
Garabito#      ss .273 .326 .389 118 414 58 113 24 3 6 40 30 48 9 6
Olson         3b .257 .320 .403 104 350 55 90 24 0 9 40 29 74 6 5
de la Rosa       ss .265 .322 .389 90 275 37 73 14 1 6 31 22 38 5 3
Iannetta       c   .244 .324 .387 88 287 50 70 13 2 8 34 32 77 1 1
Quintanilla*    ss .280 .325 .374 134 500 84 140 22 2 7 48 31 63 3 3
Salazar*        lf .252 .329 .381 134 512 96 129 23 5 11 51 57 88 11 10
Freeman         cf .261 .314 .376 128 402 60 105 14 4 8 41 27 81 4 4
Machado#        ss .202 .327 .297 111 391 67 79 16 3 5 28 73 106 12 8
Nix           2b .217 .272 .332 131 488 68 106 20 0 12 47 26 99 10 6

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 05, 2005 at 05:26 AM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 05, 2005 at 03:02 PM (#1719885)
.303 AVG for Cory Sullivan, gotta love the Coors field effect.
   2. JB H Posted: November 05, 2005 at 05:55 PM (#1719990)
Could you post a non-Coors projection for Shealy? Thanks
   3. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: November 05, 2005 at 07:21 PM (#1720040)
only 25 HR for Helton? not very likely.
   4. It's a shame about Athletic Supporter Posted: November 05, 2005 at 07:30 PM (#1720044)
Wow, Steroid Boy is the Rox' #2 hitter?
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 05, 2005 at 09:28 PM (#1720134)
Ryan Shealy

Texas: 275/351/472
Boston: 273/350/456
Oakland: 262/339/445
Washington: 248/327/414
Baltimore: 262/340/441
Philadelphia: 268/345/456

Anywhere more specific in mine?
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 05, 2005 at 09:28 PM (#1720135)
Mind
   7. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 05, 2005 at 09:49 PM (#1720152)
That's a very good projection for Jeff Francis. What kind of park factor are you using?
   8. Crafty Lefty Posted: November 06, 2005 at 07:18 PM (#1720813)
Few comments:

-You've got two Kim's listed - any way to differentiate between Sun-Woo and Byung-Hyun?

-I think the offensive predictions for the big guns (Helton, Atkins, Holliday, Hawpe) are pretty close to what most Rockies fans are expecting out of them next season, though I'd bet the farm on Holliday hitting more than 19 homers.

-J.J. Davis' hitting projection is moot - the Rox are converting him to a pitcher (seriously)

-If Aaron Miles hits .300/.339/.402 in 502 at-bats next year, it will mean that he was a Pacific Coast League All-Star.

-Those projections for Bigbie, Piedra, and even Spilborghs are real nice... tell me again why the Rox A)wasted playing time on Dustan Mohr last year and B)are even CONSIDERING bringing in a fourth outfielder like Marquis Grissom or Jeff Conine?
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 06, 2005 at 07:45 PM (#1720839)
-You've got two Kim's listed - any way to differentiate between Sun-Woo and Byung-Hyun?

The better one is Byung-Hyun.
   10. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 08, 2005 at 10:17 PM (#1724326)
That's a pretty tasty projection for Piedra. I like his ML production so far, but I'm scared of that huge-ass park split.

Anybody here seen him play? What do you think?
   11. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: November 09, 2005 at 03:27 AM (#1724626)
The better one is Byung-Hyun.

I object to your liberal usage of the term "better." Henceforth, please refer to him as "the slightly less sucky Kim."

A few years ago when we had the dueling young shortstops named Alex Gonzalez it became fashionable to refer to one as the "better" one (I forget which), but then that guy went into the toilet and they're pretty much indistinguishable by now (seriously, check out their career lines: .244/.303/.393 79 OPS+ versus .245/.291/.391 78 OPS+).
   12. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 09, 2005 at 03:37 AM (#1724629)
J.J. Davis' hitting projection is moot - the Rox are converting him to a pitcher (seriously)

Do you have a link to something that shows this? He asked the Pirates to do this two years ago (threatening to retire), and they refused.

-- MWE
   13. Ienpw Posted: November 09, 2005 at 04:20 AM (#1724644)
It would be nice to see Jeff Francis approach those numbers. If he can have that ERA and get over 200 innings he'd be first Rockie with 200 IP and a sub 5.00 ERA if I am not mistaken.
   14. Crafty Lefty Posted: November 10, 2005 at 05:44 AM (#1726070)

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