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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, November 08, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Florida Marlins


Name           W   L   ERA   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Willis*        18 10   3.38 33 33   216.0 204   81 13   55 166
Burnett         12   8   3.45 28 28   175.0 151   67 10   66 170
Beckett         13   8   3.54 27 27   160.0 139   63 13   55 163
Mota           6   4   3.64 69   0   84.0   72   34   6   34   79
Resop           4   2   3.69 53   0   61.0   56   25   4   21   63
Jones           6   4   3.84 70   0   75.0   73   32   5   25   61
Mecir           3   2   3.98 54   0   43.0   39   19   3   19   39
Spooneybarger     1   0   4.18 24   0   28.0   26   13   4   10   23
Vargas*          9 10   4.26 30 27   152.0 147   72 16   57 137
Crowell*        3   4   4.28 55   0   61.0   63   29   7   17   47
Howard           5   5   4.33 54   2   79.0   73   38 11   31   86
Fuell           3   3   4.34 46   0   58.0   61   28   5   19   40
Alfonseca         3   3   4.42 61   0   59.0   60   29   4   25   41
Smith           7   8   4.50 31 19   118.0 122   59 16   35   92
Olsen*          6   6   4.54 22 21   125.0 123   63 14   52 119
Johnson         7   9   4.66 28 25   145.0 151   75 12   62 100
Villone*        5   6   4.70 67   5   88.0   79   46   7   55   83
Bump           2   3   4.72 42   1   61.0   65   32   6   24   38
Riedling         3   5   4.86 56   2   76.0   80   41   6   38   50
Moehler         7   9   4.86 31 23   139.0 162   75 15   41   77
Kensing         5   7   4.88 22 20   120.0 135   65 13   41   75
Fulchino         7   9   4.92 27 26   139.0 147   76 15   61   99
Messenger         3   4   4.96 65   0   78.0   75   43   9   43   67
Walrond*        6   9   4.97 23 18   114.0 114   63 15   54   98
Ungs           6   8   5.08 23 23   124.0 139   70 20   37   83
Corey           3   5   5.16 47   0   68.0   77   39 10   24   44
Castillo         7 11   5.21 28 24   145.0 158   84 25   51   96
Bentz*          1   2   5.73   6   0   55.0   58   35   7   35   43
Miadich         2   5   5.74 42   0   47.0   38   30   6   43   64
Valdez           6 11   5.78 26 23   123.0 152   79 23   39   53
Cave           2   5   5.94 44   0   47.0   51   31   6   30   35
Allison         2   7   6.37 17 17   89.0 104   63 18   46   67


Name           P   AVG   OBP   SPC   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Cabrera         lf .319 .388 .570 162 626 112 200 36 2 39 131 69 146 3 1
Delgado*        1b .272 .385 .512 143 508 75 138 33 1 29 106 81 129 0 0
Hermida*        rf .266 .371 .434 127 387 68 103 18 1 15 58 59 98 15 3
Willingham       c   .238 .356 .469 101 290 57 69 17 1 16 50 44 79 5 3
Dillon         3b .253 .338 .469 124 407 69 103 30 2 18 64 43 95 9 7
Lowell         3b .263 .337 .444 150 540 69 142 39 1 19 82 59 72 3 1
Castillo#      2b .303 .386 .370 141 532 83 161 14 5 4 49 74 54 15 11
Stokes         1b .247 .319 .468 95 348 54 86 17 0 20 60 35 117 3 3
Aguila         lf .272 .333 .433 110 305 48 83 18 2 9 41 28 73 6 4
Encarnacion     rf .269 .329 .427 145 536 63 144 31 3 16 80 43 98 8 6
Pierre*        cf .293 .346 .364 162 676 92 198 22 10 2 61 50 41 52 22
Colangelo       lf .248 .329 .391 98 302 42 75 17 1 8 39 28 79 2 2
Gonzalez       ss .253 .305 .406 146 510 53 129 32 2 14 69 33 107 3 3
Lo Duca         c   .266 .324 .365 138 496 50 132 26 1 7 59 37 44 2 4
Sears*        1b .249 .319 .356 121 385 43 96 15 1 8 47 37 111 1 1
Little         lf .233 .299 .395 80 266 35 62 10 3 9 34 14 76 7 5
Conine         1b .249 .307 .353 134 433 46 108 22 1 7 57 35 71 3 2
Easley         2b .214 .301 .376 85 234 23 50 15 1 7 31 22 35 2 2
Treanor         c   .216 .320 .312 84 231 25 50 10 0 4 23 25 47 2 2
Padgett*        lf .226 .281 .360 127 425 48 96 20 2 11 52 31 134 2 1
Niles#        ss .235 .319 .299 118 328 40 77 13 1 2 28 39 87 3 2
Wilson         ss .234 .295 .343 146 516 70 121 23 3 9 55 43 127 10 9
Molina         c   .225 .291 .337 135 472 51 106 19 2 10 56 40 113 3 4
Delgado#        2b .234 .289 .316 119 376 37 88 16 3 3 31 29 77 3 2
Abercrombie     cf .230 .265 .382 121 456 59 105 16 4 15 52 17 151 16 11
Wood           3b .219 .280 .329 121 398 45 87 15 1 9 43 29 85 2 2
Jorgensen       c   .200 .275 .317 62 180 18 36 9 0 4 19 18 55 1 0
Wathan#        ss .234 .278 .328 102 338 40 79 16 2 4 32 20 63 11 7
Andino         ss .234 .280 .294 140 521 53 122 19 0 4 43 31 130 16 5
Reed*          cf .246 .293 .303 120 456 55 112 11 3 3 33 26 105 24 17
Barnes*        1b .213 .254 .342 82 240 25 51 11 1 6 27 13 58 1 2
El Cero Gordo*    lf .200 .260 .263 80 95   6 19 3 0 1 10   8 14 0 0

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 08, 2005 at 01:51 AM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. 1k5v3L Posted: November 08, 2005 at 01:56 AM (#1722682)
Give me fuell give me fire...
   2. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 08, 2005 at 02:52 AM (#1722727)
I'm surprised Olson projects so poorly. His bb and K ratios in the minor leagues have been nothing but excellent, and his brief big-league showing in 2005 was good, too. I expect him to at least post an average ERA.
   3. plink Posted: November 08, 2005 at 03:08 AM (#1722746)
Sure, but how does Willis project at the plate?
   4. SABRJoe Posted: November 08, 2005 at 04:06 AM (#1722816)
Sure, but how does Willis project at the plate?

And Vargas, while you're at it...
   5. Dan Lee prefers good shortstops to great paintings Posted: November 08, 2005 at 07:49 AM (#1723095)
Nice line for El Cero Gordo. Cubs looking for a pinch hitter?
   6. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 08, 2005 at 03:10 PM (#1723312)
Olsen posted a 3.92 ERA in AA, in a league that favors pitchers. There are also concerns about his ability to hold together over an entire season. Although he did post a decent ERA and K rate in his major league trial (1) it was only 20 1/3 innings, (2) he also allowed 4 unearned runs, and (3) he allowed 5 home runs in those 20 1/3 innings. I think it's prudent to exercise caution; a mid-4s projection seems reasonable to me.

That said, he's a joy to watch on the mound, with solid mechanics, and I think he will succeed eventually.

-- MWE
   7. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 08, 2005 at 11:01 PM (#1724289)
I'm a bit surprised that Colangelo's line isn't higher.
   8. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 09, 2005 at 04:42 AM (#1724632)
Thanks for the analysis, Mike. I now agree.

Good for the rest of the division, too, because I thought the Marlins weren't going to skip a beat.
   9. stubbyc Posted: November 11, 2005 at 04:44 AM (#1727411)
Where the #### are the Astros ZIPS.

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