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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, November 23, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers


Name           P   AVG   OBP   SPC   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Drew*          rf .288 .414 .528 112 386 76 111 19 4 22 73 80 80 6 2
Bradley#        cf .291 .378 .462 110 416 62 121 24 1 15 61 56 87 12 8
Choi*          1b .251 .358 .464 125 319 44 80 18 1 16 49 49 84 1 2
Kent           2b .264 .330 .454 139 511 76 135 33 2 20 88 46 95 5 3
Myrow*        1b .248 .344 .426 130 387 63 96 24 3 13 52 48 102 4 3
Saenz         1b .258 .319 .466 102 279 33 72 19 0 13 50 23 59 0 1
Perez         3b .269 .342 .423 124 390 59 105 18 3 12 50 37 95 15 9
Werth         rf .247 .336 .421 110 361 55 89 20 2 13 54 45 109 10 3
Cruz#          rf .235 .340 .421 140 477 61 112 23 3 20 68 77 114 5 6
Meadows         lf .253 .328 .436 109 360 51 91 22 1 14 56 34 91 4 4
Ledee*        lf .250 .322 .425 108 228 28 57 14 1 8 36 25 55 0 0
Martin         c   .255 .361 .360 129 400 72 102 13 1 9 48 58 66 10 5
Guzman         3b .268 .316 .436 128 459 65 123 20 3 17 68 30 134 6 4
LaRoche         3b .248 .311 .434 130 452 76 112 19 1 21 67 36 88 8 3
Navarro#        c   .270 .342 .364 124 404 49 109 15 1 7 41 43 52 2 2
Edwards         3b .255 .335 .377 128 443 57 113 22 1 10 54 47 82 5 4
Young#        2b .255 .303 .422 134 498 64 127 27 1 18 66 31 136 3 3
Chen           lf .240 .304 .419 107 363 53 87 19 2 14 52 33 99 3 3
Phillips       c   .252 .318 .383 130 420 41 106 22 0 11 55 35 51 0 1
Rose#          c   .233 .336 .349 92 275 35 64 15 1 5 30 41 70 1 0
Stanley*        cf .249 .318 .389 115 398 55 99 21 4 9 43 41 84 6 5
Aybar#        2b .260 .321 .376 134 473 51 123 24 2 9 57 42 79 9 5
Ross           rf .241 .296 .422 120 410 62 99 19 2 17 55 30 101 4 3
Kemp           cf .254 .292 .426 117 413 62 105 14 3 17 60 17 104 13 5
Repko         cf .252 .307 .391 130 412 61 104 18 3 11 45 28 97 9 5
Flores         ss .259 .338 .332 107 316 47 82 10 2 3 30 37 40 3 4
Robles*        3b .264 .320 .364 111 368 43 97 17 1 6 41 30 34 1 6
Loney*        1b .250 .317 .343 129 460 58 115 20 1 7 48 45 86 4 3
Izturis#        ss .274 .313 .349 142 588 67 161 25 5 3 54 34 66 14 9
Grabowski*      c   .225 .298 .372 107 253 35 57 11 1 8 31 27 55 1 1
Hu           ss .259 .291 .349 114 424 64 110 16 2 6 39 14 49 17 5
Valentin#      3b .197 .278 .395 116 395 50 78 17 2 19 57 42 107 5 5
Nakamura       3b .204 .279 .359 113 373 42 76 14 1 14 47 39 87 0 0
Theodorou#      lf .220 .294 .292 125 250 30 55 8 2 2 19 23 42 6 3
Bako*          c   .203 .284 .275 51 138 11 28 8 1 0 11 15 34 0 1

Name           W   L   ERA   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Gagne           6   1   1.52 65   0   71.0   41   12   3   18 111
Alvarez* (retired)  6   4   3.68 31 12   93.0   87   38   9   25   78
Penny           10   9   3.94 28 28   169.0 170   74 17   44 122
Wunsch*          1   1   4.03 41   0   29.0   22   13   2   17   29
Osoria           6   6   4.07 61   0   84.0   91   38   6   21   58
Weaver         12 12   4.19 34 32   206.0 212   96 25   52 145
Perez*          9   7   4.26 26 26   152.0 142   72 21   39 114
Carlyle         5   5   4.32 27 15   98.0   99   47 15   24   73
Lowe           12 14   4.33 34 34   206.0 209   99 23   64 131
Broxton         6   6   4.42 37 17   118.0 118   58 12   44 105
Sanchez         4   5   4.50 70   0   76.0   75   38   8   32   58
Dessens         4   5   4.61 37 16   125.0 135   64 15   37   80
Brazoban         6   8   4.62 71   0   76.0   70   39 10   37   71
Carrara         4   5   4.63 64   0   72.0   69   37   7   35   54
Dreifort         3   3   4.67 44   3   54.0   47   28   5   33   63
Rupe           5   6   4.75 23 14   91.0   97   48 17   21   77
Ketchner*        6   9   4.88 22 22   120.0 124   65 16   49   86
Wayne           4   6   4.89 28 19   114.0 121   62 16   42   73
Orenduff         6   9   4.96 26 25   118.0 119   65 17   52 100
Thompson*        3   5   4.97 19 18   96.0   95   53   8   54   72
Houlton         6   9   5.00 31 24   144.0 149   80 24   55 120
Farmer           4   7   5.05 32 13   98.0 106   55 14   37   62
Billingsley       7 11   5.10 27 26   136.0 139   77 19   64 118
Eckert           5   8   5.29 30 17   131.0 137   77 23   55 117
Venafro*        1   3   5.40 54   0   55.0   62   33   7   25   32
Juarez           4   7   5.58 28 16   108.0 125   67 18   40   66
Neu             1   3   5.88 35   6   72.0   77   47 10   45   47
Tiffany*        4 10   5.88 22 21   101.0 107   66 25   43 103
Jackson         6 14   5.92 29 26   152.0 172 100 27   74   96
Erickson         3   8   6.30 22 15   90.0 106   63 17   46   43
Bott*          3   9   6.61 33 18   109.0 117   80 18   84   83
Hanrahan         4 13   7.26 27 25   124.0 149 100 33   70   91

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 23, 2005 at 04:58 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. 1k5v3L Posted: November 23, 2005 at 05:27 PM (#1743882)
If there is god, AZ will trade Shawn Green to LA for Milton Bradley and Broxton.
   2. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 23, 2005 at 06:04 PM (#1743951)
God, J.D Drew is a great player. If he could just stay healthy...
   3. 1k5v3L Posted: November 23, 2005 at 06:09 PM (#1743957)
Ah, remember the days when Edwin Jackson and Joel Hanrahan were supposed to lead the Dodgers to many world series apperances? Those were good times.
   4. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: November 23, 2005 at 06:26 PM (#1743998)
Easy to see LA's biggest problem, their two best players are only projected for 112 and 110 games played.
   5. CFiJ Posted: November 23, 2005 at 06:55 PM (#1744078)
I know the Dodgers don't even have a manager yet, but I'll take the under on Choi's PA#.
   6. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 23, 2005 at 07:32 PM (#1744172)
Ouch, Kent falls off a cliff in these projections.
   7. Sweet Posted: November 23, 2005 at 07:59 PM (#1744215)
I suspect that Choi gets 0 PA as a Dodger next year. He's clearly not targeted as the starter (Colletti has said that the team needs to fill "the hole at first base," or words to that effect), and he doesn't seem like the kind of guy the Dodgers would want to keep on the bench. He's not flexible, not fast, and not scrappy (i.e., not white). Plus he stank as a PH last year.

Could make a nice platoon fit for some team in need of a first baseman.
   8. Honkie Kong Posted: November 23, 2005 at 08:15 PM (#1744258)
Does the projection take into account that Drew had a broken wrist?
They usually tend to sap power and increase K rates.
If not, the projection is on the lower side me thinks.
   9. Lester Posted: November 23, 2005 at 08:53 PM (#1744326)
Yeah, ZIPS really hates Jeff Kent.
   10. JGLB has the express written consent of MLB Posted: November 23, 2005 at 09:33 PM (#1744402)
Dan,

I don't see a projection for Greg Miller, is that because he only pitched about 20 or so innings last year?
   11. Morph Posted: November 23, 2005 at 09:35 PM (#1744406)
Didn't realize you had to be white in order to achieve scrappiness. All these years I thought every Major Leaguer who ever put on a Uniform deserved to get there due to their unrivaled talent. You know, hand eye coordination and what not. But now I have to consider a new argument. Some simply make it because they're white! I find this more insulting than most people since my baseball "career" is mercifully washed out, and you know, if I deserved any more entitlements due to my skin color, it sure is news to me. Never occured to me. I didn't make it cause I didn't have the talent, happening to be a pale Irish men didn't exactly help me out. It is probably a throw away comment that you meant nothing by Sweet, but I'd like to believe the best man plays, and find it overly demeaning to the sport we all love if this weren't the case.
   12. Sweet Posted: November 23, 2005 at 10:05 PM (#1744492)
mw,

It wasn't exactly a "throw away comment," although in retrospect I should have put quotation marks around the word "scrappy." I didn't mean to imply that certain players "simply make it because they're white"; I don't think that's true. I do think, though, that white players comprise the majority -- and perhaps the totality -- of players who have a public reputation as being "scrappy," "gritty," or "blue-collar," all characteristics that the Dodgers might look for in a bench player. I try to keep an open mind, though, so I'd be interested to hear of counterexamples -- non-white players who are routinely described in this way.

As for the "best man" always playing, tell that to Choi after he got replaced by Jason Phillips. Or ask any Cubs rookie. These decisions aren't motivated by race; they're stupidity-driven.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 23, 2005 at 10:06 PM (#1744494)
I don't see a projection for Greg Miller, is that because he only pitched about 20 or so innings last year?

Miller has 22 2/3 innings above rookie ball in the last 2 years - I just don't think a statistical projection drawn off his miniscule record will be very insightful here. I try not to project players with very limited record unless one absolutely has to (Huston Street before '05, Craig Hansen now). Even those two had more to go off of.
   14. The Balls of Summer Posted: November 23, 2005 at 11:15 PM (#1744652)
Actually, scrappy comes from those players' tendencies to take the scraps from the clubhouse spread home to their dogs.

David Eckstein has the fattest dog in the world.
   15. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 24, 2005 at 12:30 AM (#1744748)
Some people don't know the difference between prescriptive and descriptive, I guess, and some of them are cruising the internet looking for racism. Amazing.
   16. Morph Posted: November 24, 2005 at 04:23 AM (#1745000)
Look my bad for putting a different opinion out there. If you read what I said, you would clearly see I wasn't singling Sweet or anything he said out like he was a bad guy or something. I just disagreed with his thoughts and put mine out there. If you want to think that's what Internet crusading is defined now in this present time, a differing view on something, it's in a real sorry state, or maybe perceptions are.


BTW Sweet, your response definitely holds water. The majority of players defined as scrappy most definitely are white. Using this dynamic in your whole Choi arguement, however, probably threw me off of your real point.

Jason Phillips is terrible.
   17. Sweet Posted: November 24, 2005 at 09:00 AM (#1745299)
I didn't take offense, mw, and I hope I didn't give any. I understand your point.
   18. Cheer and boo and raise a hullabaloo Posted: November 24, 2005 at 05:32 PM (#1745463)
I know it's all been said before, but I still need to vent. It is simply unbelievably frustrating that Choi is not seen as a decent player. He is projected to have the 3rd-highest OPS on the team, and it's not like this would be unexpected as the projection is basically his career OPS. Obviously he's not a great or maybe even good hitter for a 1B, but in what world is Choi a problem you need to fix? There are bigger fish to fry if you are looking for problems on the Dodgers.

Coletti better not start signing a bunch of 37-year old veterans with playoff-experience-magick or I am going to be very frustrated.
   19. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: November 26, 2005 at 01:46 AM (#1746600)
First off, Martin and Navarro should split time 50/50, perhaps even alternating each game. Choi is an awesome player and very underrated; I think he is not liked because he is Korean. Phillips should be traded for anything the Dodgers can get, or simply be released.
   20. DCA Posted: November 28, 2005 at 05:10 PM (#1749732)
BTW Sweet, your response definitely holds water. The majority of players defined as scrappy most definitely are white. Using this dynamic in your whole Choi arguement, however, probably threw me off of your real point.

While in general this is correct, I think being one of "Dusty's boys" or the equivalent is the same thing. Guys like Macias, Neifi, Harris, and Dunston are clearly not white, and they've all got that elusive intangible that gets them more PT and roster space than their talent alone merits.
   21. akrasian Posted: November 28, 2005 at 06:13 PM (#1749849)
First off, Martin and Navarro should split time 50/50, perhaps even alternating each game.

I disagree. I want Martin to spend at least a few more months in the minors, for three reasons. First, he's only been catching a few seasons, and a bit more full time experience under Yeager's tutelage would be beneficial. Secondly, Navarro should play regularly also, so that the Dodgers can see whether the couple of months at the end of the season was a fluke or not. Thirdly, if Martin spends the full season in the majors then he and Navarro would be eligible for free agency at the same time, which strikes me as poor roster management, when there are developmental reasons anyway for that to be avoided.

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