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Saturday, November 26, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers


Name           P   AVG   OBP   SPC   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Jenkins*        lf .281 .356 .490 147 563 83 158 39 2 25 93 55 139 1 0
Overbay*        1b .284 .375 .448 154 531 74 151 40 1 15 73 78 106 1 0
Branyan*        3b .251 .347 .499 117 355 52 89 20 1 22 64 50 128 3 2
Fielder*        1b .268 .352 .482 142 452 70 121 20 1 25 78 52 105 11 4
Lee           lf .277 .336 .481 160 622 90 172 40 0 29 106 54 88 12 6
Weeks         2b .252 .350 .434 148 535 88 135 26 7 19 75 56 142 22 4
Cruz           lf .258 .342 .457 123 403 65 104 23 0 19 60 42 124 12 6
Clark         cf .291 .364 .414 141 498 69 145 26 1 11 56 44 51 10 11
Helms         3b .269 .340 .424 111 335 34 90 17 1 11 45 31 81 0 1
Hall           ss .279 .325 .453 144 495 68 138 33 4 15 67 35 112 14 8
Hart           rf .261 .324 .450 134 467 80 122 25 6 17 67 42 102 20 9
Hardy         ss .253 .329 .403 112 340 45 86 19 1 10 47 39 44 0 0
Magruder#      lf .253 .319 .386 111 277 33 70 15 2 6 33 20 57 5 3
Miller         c   .248 .318 .384 112 375 39 93 22 1 9 45 37 89 0 1
Gemoll*        1b .263 .315 .385 123 418 48 110 23 2 8 49 30 107 3 4
Nelson*        1b .238 .308 .384 138 487 66 116 22 2 15 63 47 140 8 3
Dallimore       2b .264 .322 .358 113 405 56 107 21 1 5 41 28 53 5 5
Erickson*      2b .256 .343 .329 103 313 35 80 18 1 1 26 33 56 10 8
Johnson*        c   .226 .332 .335 76 221 27 50 13 1 3 23 34 35 1 2
Durrington       2b .252 .327 .339 121 345 55 87 14 2 4 32 35 71 22 12
Abernathy       2b .253 .313 .365 101 348 54 88 19 1 6 39 28 36 11 9
Cirillo         3b .233 .318 .342 74 193 23 45 12 0 3 20 21 24 2 2
Rivera         c   .235 .279 .397 67 234 27 55 9 1 9 32 11 53 1 1
Rottino         1b .256 .298 .358 137 497 60 127 19 4 8 55 29 78 2 2
Cruz           3b .244 .292 .377 139 472 60 115 23 2 12 51 30 118 5 5
Scarborough     ss .226 .290 .353 127 394 42 89 25 2 7 42 32 100 3 4
Krynzel*        cf .225 .286 .346 113 408 59 92 17 4 8 42 30 130 14 7
Sorensen#      2b .248 .311 .314 106 347 56 86 13 2 2 31 33 69 9 8
Moeller         c   .217 .274 .345 83 258 24 56 13 1 6 27 19 56 0 1
Gwynn*        cf .234 .309 .291 138 512 76 120 17 3 2 38 51 91 31 15
Knox           cf .233 .289 .318 114 374 47 87 18 1 4 30 26 83 21 11
Crabbe#        2b .220 .289 .284 127 437 52 96 14 4 2 32 39 70 18 7
Borders         c   .212 .247 .297 72 222 20 47 10 0 3 22   8 56 1 1

Name           W   L   ERA   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Sheets         15   8   3.27 29 29   198.0 180   72 23   32 191
Wise           4   3   3.46 44   2   65.0   53   25   6   23   61
Turnbow         5   3   3.65 59   0   74.0   60   30   7   31   79
Davis           4   3   4.14 50   0   63.0   54   29   7   31   66
Phelps*          2   1   4.22 30   5   49.0   49   23   4   18   36
Davis*          11 12   4.26 34 34   203.0 189   96 21   85 175
Capellan         5   6   4.32 58   8   102.0   99   49   7   46   84
Ohka           9 10   4.45 30 28   168.0 181   83 20   45   95
Gamble           3   4   4.50 22   8   66.0   70   33   7   22   41
Eveland*        7   9   4.53 37 19   141.0 152   71 14   46   94
Capuano*        12 13   4.55 32 31   182.0 176   92 24   73 153
Adams           3   4   4.57 47   1   67.0   65   34   9   28   65
Hendrickson       8 11   4.71 28 27   149.0 159   78 19   49 106
Lehr           5   7   4.76 52   7   102.0 106   54 12   41   72
Saenz           5   6   4.87 15 15   85.0   84   46 17   28   80
Helling         6   9   4.91 32 25   152.0 158   83 22   58 111
Bennett         2   3   4.94 54   0   62.0   64   34 10   24   48
Obermueller       6   9   5.07 31 23   158.0 174   89 19   64   89
de la Rosa*      3   6   5.26 41   2   53.0   54   31   4   35   46
Wolfe           3   5   5.34 36   3   64.0   71   38   8   27   34
Woolard         6 10   5.35 30 23   143.0 159   85 19   63   92
Fernandez         5 12   5.51 31 25   165.0 190 101 28   55   73
Diggins         1   2   5.63 10   5   32.0   32   20   2   23   20
Zumwalt         2   5   5.68 41   0   65.0   68   41   9   39   47
Costello*        6 12   5.86 32 23   132.0 150   86 23   63   85
Jones           1   4   6.14   6   6   22.0   22   15   1   20   14
Pratt*          3   7   6.20 34 16   103.0 101   71 17   79 100
Weibl           2   5   6.35 30   8   78.0   91   55 16   39   50
Habel*          5 12   6.39 31 20   124.0 146   88 31   53   85
Sarfate         5 14   6.42 27 25   129.0 143   92 23   83   93
Housman*        4 12   6.47 28 24   128.0 143   92 29   69 104

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 26, 2005 at 07:27 PM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Russ Posted: November 26, 2005 at 07:42 PM (#1747096)
Definitely the most interesting team in baseball right now. If you are at or above league average at every position, you will be successful.

This team is one more stud starting pitcher and one stud hitter away from being a very scary contender. Does anyone know if they're going to go after Giles? If they rotated Giles, Jenkins, Lee and Hart among the four outfield positions (with Giles spelling Clark in center every once in a while) they could do a serious amount of damage and would have a lot of depth with a killer bat off the bench.
   2. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: November 26, 2005 at 08:13 PM (#1747125)
You're advocating that they rotate those four players in and out of RF and LF, with Clark playing CF? Even throwing Hart out of the mix, which is unreasonable, there's no way that one of Giles, Jenkins, and Lee is sitting every day. I would prefer they package Lee and Overbay together to get something fantabulous. I suppose Giles could play center, but Brady Clark is cheap and effective. Basically, there's no point in signing Giles if they're not going to get rid of Lee or Jenkins, and given that they have several adequate-to-good in-house corner outfielders, like Hart and Nelson Cruz, I would say that the chances of signing Giles are nil.
   3. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 26, 2005 at 08:33 PM (#1747149)
Brian Giles would be an incredibly dumb investment. Though a fine player, he is clearly on the downside. Milwaukee needs to play their young talent at every opportunity as opposed to inserting some veteran who would consume valuable financial resources without providing anything close the return.

I am going to write this now so I can beat the Xmas rush. Ben Sheets will have his "breakout" season in terms of wins in 2006. Why? Why NOT?!!!

Sheets will stay healthy, pitch like, well, Ben Sheets, and the Brewers will actually score some runs for him.

Book it.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: November 26, 2005 at 10:15 PM (#1747264)
I seriously doubt the Brewers are going to do anything big in the FA market, but they should be big players in the trade market. They need to move Overbay now or at midseason. If ZIPS is right, Lee doesn't give them much over Cruz/Hart (especially if either of those guys is better defensively). He's a nice player to have around and they probably wouldn't get very much in return, but Hall is also expendable. (Or Branyan but he'll bring even less in return than Hall)

What they need most is starting pitching. This rotation isn't bad and is reasonably deep, but add a second top starter and this might well be a wild-card team this year. Or an ML-ready prospect with that kind of potential and in two years this could be a really good team. An upgrade at C wouldn't be bad but I don't know if anybody substantially better than Miller is available.
   5. Ziggy Posted: November 26, 2005 at 10:37 PM (#1747286)
I could see them signing Morris. Rumor has it they're increasing payroll this year, and he'd be a good fit.
   6. -3E8 Posted: November 26, 2005 at 10:41 PM (#1747292)
This team is one more stud starting pitcher and one stud hitter away from being a very scary contender.

You could probably say this about half the teams in the league.
   7. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 26, 2005 at 10:46 PM (#1747297)
This team is one more stud starting pitcher and one stud hitter away from being a very scary contender.

So would a lot of teams. Nothing against the Brewers, but its true.
   8. CraigK Posted: November 26, 2005 at 11:00 PM (#1747314)
As a Cardinals fan, that team scares the #### out of me.

If someone besides Sheets comes up with a breakout season, they're in the playoffs, at least as a wild card.

And 25 HRs from Fielder? Whoa.
   9. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 26, 2005 at 11:58 PM (#1747375)
Those Ks and BBs from Capuano look like a better ERA to me than that, even with the HR; it's not so many.
   10. Russ Posted: November 27, 2005 at 02:09 AM (#1747525)
You could probably say this about half the teams in the league.

1. But for the longest time, the Brewers were in the other half.
2. The Brewers are one of the few teams that if you could do that, their sucess would be sustainable over a long period of time.
   11. Hang down your head, Tom Foley Posted: November 27, 2005 at 03:51 AM (#1747686)
Borders c

How cute.
   12. CraigK Posted: November 27, 2005 at 04:46 AM (#1747777)
Looking at it again, it's a bit scary that the top 7 hitters up there are projected for 832 K's.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: November 27, 2005 at 06:23 AM (#1747934)
Looking at it again, it's a bit scary that the top 7 hitters up there are projected for 832 K's.

You can't spell Milwaukee without a K.

Of course, of those top 7, you won't have Overbay and Fielder both in the lineup nor both Lee (who doesn't K much) and Cruz. And Branyan hasn't had anywhere near that many PA since 2002 (Zips is not a playing time projector. :-) But yeah, their top 4 sluggers may get 550 Ks.
   14. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 27, 2005 at 06:49 AM (#1747952)
Rotoworld reports the Blue Jays turned down an offer of Lyle Overbay for P Dustin McGowan.
   15. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: November 27, 2005 at 07:11 AM (#1747976)
Is Dustin McGowan much better than his numbers would imply? His 2003 was good, but since his apparent injury in 2004 he hasn't been the same guy, at least by the numbers.
   16. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 27, 2005 at 07:56 AM (#1748010)
You're sure it was the Blue Jays who turned that down?
   17. The Hop-Clop Goes On (psa1) Posted: November 27, 2005 at 08:58 AM (#1748045)
You're sure it was the Blue Jays who turned that down?

That's the report I've seen, multiple places (though I would imagine it all originates from the same source). I was surprised too -- though with rumors at this stage you never know if the Crew was also asking for JP's first-born.
   18. Eraser-X is emphatically dominating teh site!!! Posted: November 27, 2005 at 10:22 AM (#1748096)
J.P. realized that he could get a comparable 1B/DH type for only 5/$75mil and figured it was better to not give up the "prospect".
   19. Dolf Lucky Posted: November 28, 2005 at 02:29 PM (#1749530)
No Victor Santos?
   20. Rob Base Posted: November 28, 2005 at 02:32 PM (#1749532)
Still looks like a pretty $hitty team to me.
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 28, 2005 at 03:02 PM (#1749567)
Victor Santos signed with the Royals. His projection with the Royals is a 5.21 ERA in 145 IP, 16 HR, 59 BB, 85 K.
   22. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 28, 2005 at 04:22 PM (#1749635)
I think the Brewers are going to need a consolidation year, as players like Fielder, Weeks, Hart, Cruz, et. al. begin (or continue) making their adjustments to the majors. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Brewers backslid to 75 wins or so, then took another leap forward in 2007.

-- MWE
   23. Dolf Lucky Posted: November 28, 2005 at 06:18 PM (#1749855)
Thanks Dan.
   24. _ Posted: November 29, 2005 at 01:23 AM (#1750443)
I agree with MWE. This team has several players - Hall, Clark, Turnbow, Ohka, Capuano - who can't be expected to do again next year what they did this year. I think people expecting Chris Capuano to win 18 games again are going to be very disappointed. Sure, he'll be a solid innings eater if he stays healthy, but if you believe in DIPS, or FIP, or anything like that, you can see he's headed for a correction.

Hardy and Weeks are the only two on the entire team from whom I'd expect better seasons. Maybe Sheets. A lot depends on what they get for Overbay, and whether they're able to move Lee or Jenkins, but it's unlikely even that those deals will pay off this season.

What Russ points out in post 1 is exactly why they aren't as good as people think, and exactly why they're in a difficult position right now in terms of making deals. They're fairly solid at every position, with no glaring weaknesses, but also with no franchise players. When you have a bunch of average-above average players, that's exactly what kind of team you'll have. You need superstars to win. This team really has only one, and he's coming off a serious injury. Then again, if the White Sox could do it. . .
   25. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:05 AM (#1750472)
he's coming off a serious injury

I think that's a mischaracterization of a muscle tear.
   26. _ Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:14 AM (#1750478)
Well, it's not a minor injury. It's not a given that he's going to come back the same pitcher, or that the peculiarities of his motion won't re-injure it.
   27. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:28 AM (#1750487)
No franchise players? Maybe at THIS PARTICULAR POINT OF TIME.

I see Ben Sheets, Rickie Weeks, and Prince Fielder as guys who could make the leap.

Mike and I have disagreed on Bill Hall for several years now. If he continues to edge forward on his plate discipline I believe he will solidify the gains from 2005.

Brady Clark is only considered a fluke because nobody was intelligent enough to play him five years ago when he deserved a job. Go look at his minor league numbers where he twice led leagues in OBP and explain to me again why he can't post a .370 OBP in the majors.

Why was Capuano a prospect in Arizona but in Milwaukee he's a fluke? Yes the wins total is a reflection of support, yada, yada, yada. But the PERFORMANCE is there to be a solid rotation starter. And if you keep your team in the game SOMEBODY will get the wins.

Derrick Turnbow has a 98 mph fastball. That cannot be either manufactured or created. It just IS. Maybe he loses the control in 2006. Maybe Mike Maddux continues to help the lad master his stuff.

But hey, you go ahead and insist they stink, they were a fluke, and why bother taking a bunch of hayseeds seriously.
   28. NTNgod Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:45 AM (#1750502)
Bill Hall made strides in pitch recognition last year, which, of course, isn't easy to do at the major league level.
Hall was actually pretty amusing to watch last season, in that you could occasionally see him straining himself not to swing at certain pitches he use to chase with regularity. He did succeed in cutting his strikeouts down by quite a bit (from 119 in 390 ABs in 2004, to 103 in 501), while increasing the number of pitches he saw per AB (3.80 to 4.16).

He's got good power for a middle infielder (especially to RF) - in a non-Hardy world where Hall played everyday at SS, his .837 OPS would have ranked second to Felipe Lopez' .838 amongst NL SS.
Hall was probably among the least-known players who had a VORP above 40 last year (42.7)...
   29. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:56 AM (#1750513)
NTNgod:

And don't forget the defense. And the baserunning.

I love all these folks wanting to find reasons for the Brewers to stink in 2006.

If they regress it's a consolidation year. If they move forward I get to gloat about being right.

I'm diggin' 2006. :)
   30. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 29, 2005 at 02:58 AM (#1750518)
By the way, I cannot access the Newsblog link. Just repeatedly craps out.

Other parts of the site are accessible. Just an FYI......
   31. caprules Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:16 AM (#1750532)
The newsblog interface seems to be having issues, but there's a workaround. If you go the home page and click on one of the new articles linked at the top, that will allow you to then see the current newsblog hot topics. You can also bookmark a newsblog thread once you get there, and that lets you in. At least that's how I figured it out.

Regarding the Brew Crew, they will be an exciting team to watch. I'm hoping for a second place finish, hopefully an 85ish win team.
   32. _ Posted: November 29, 2005 at 07:06 AM (#1750808)
Jesus, don't be so defensive. I'm one of the hayseeds, OK? I believe "solid" is exactly the word I used to describe Capuano. Forget the wins; he's not going to have an ERA under 4.40. I never said anyone stinks; I said they won't be as good as they were in 2005. If you think they're going to do in 2006 what the Cleveland Indians did in 2005, look at the rosters and tell me this team has as much talent as Cleveland. They're not there yet. When they are, I'll be the first in line.
   33. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:33 PM (#1751109)
The Brewers are set for a long, long time, as long as they can hang onto Melvin. Most under-rated GM in the game.
   34. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 05, 2005 at 10:40 PM (#1762373)
Dan, what's the ZiPS for Victor Santos? He fell in between the KC and Milwaukee releases and didn't get a write-up for changing teams...

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