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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, November 28, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins


Name           P   AVG   OBP   SPC   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Mauer*        c   .303 .377 .427 122 452 59 137 22 2 10 56 55 63 12 2
Morneau*        1b .266 .336 .491 145 530 76 141 25 2 30 93 53 103 0 1
Ford           cf .285 .363 .411 143 513 73 146 30 4 9 61 51 78 13 5
LeCroy         1b .271 .342 .445 100 310 32 84 12 0 14 49 31 82 0 0
Kubel*        rf .296 .355 .432 135 477 77 141 25 2 12 70 44 67 8 8
Hunter         cf .264 .328 .447 129 492 72 130 31 1 19 76 43 93 16 8
Cuddyer         3b .263 .340 .427 120 391 52 103 24 2 12 49 44 87 4 5
Stewart         lf .283 .342 .399 124 519 66 147 26 2 10 60 42 68 6 5
Bartlett       ss .281 .354 .387 128 462 77 130 22 3 7 47 46 71 12 10
West           lf .258 .317 .444 136 480 62 124 33 1 18 70 34 120 2 3
Romero#        lf .278 .336 .393 131 460 63 128 21 1 10 56 34 66 8 5
Jones*        rf .261 .319 .433 145 541 71 141 26 2 21 76 42 121 11 7
Boone         2b .251 .324 .415 129 494 64 124 26 2 17 73 51 106 7 4
Rodriguez#      2b .281 .343 .374 129 452 60 127 29 2 3 44 43 49 3 4
Buchanan       rf .251 .324 .405 79 215 35 54 13 1 6 27 19 54 3 1
Tiffee#        3b .266 .308 .421 119 425 52 113 26 2 12 60 24 42 3 0
Williams#      3b .256 .305 .416 88 317 42 81 17 2 10 43 19 69 3 2
Jones*        1b .244 .286 .439 134 476 67 116 22 1 23 70 27 117 5 3
Redmond         c   .269 .320 .346 62 182 17 49 11 0 1 20   9 21 0 0
Ryan*          rf .241 .301 .388 115 345 42 83 17 2 10 44 30 80 4 3
Tyner*        lf .278 .333 .329 128 486 69 135 18 2 1 37 37 56 13 8
Bowen#        c   .230 .314 .352 90 270 33 62 12 0 7 27 30 78 1 1
Rabe           cf .247 .311 .375 116 405 58 100 22 0 10 49 35 79 12 9
Heintz         c   .260 .298 .368 91 315 31 82 17 1 5 37 17 56 0 0
Rivas         2b .256 .287 .389 119 386 53 99 19 4 8 43 15 54 12 4
Miller         c   .211 .312 .343 91 280 37 59 16 0 7 31 30 56 0 0
Moses*        3b .235 .291 .353 108 388 53 91 15 2 9 46 27 99 8 4
Punto#        2b .242 .303 .330 101 339 39 82 15 3 3 28 31 77 11 7
Castro         ss .244 .272 .362 104 287 27 70 17 1 5 31 12 49 1 2
Ojeda#        ss .219 .309 .293 114 334 45 73 16 0 3 26 34 37 5 5
Dunwoody*      cf .233 .269 .370 102 330 36 77 22 1 7 38 14 80 5 6
Tomlin         cf .221 .257 .290 131 411 53 91 17 1 3 31 19 71 12 5

Name           W   L   ERA   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Nathan           7   1   2.41 71   0   71.0   48   19   4   22   92
Santana*        18   6   2.91 33 33   232.0 181   75 22   48 250
Rincon         10   3   3.00 72   0   81.0   63   27   4   32   86
Crain           8   6   3.82 71   0   80.0   74   34   7   29   45
Baker           11   8   3.99 30 30   185.0 183   82 24   36 129
Silva           10   9   4.02 29 29   195.0 221   87 24   19   74
Liriano*        11   9   4.08 27 26   159.0 138   72 19   61 165
Radke           11 10   4.09 32 32   211.0 224   96 30   26 122
Bowyer           4   4   4.33 59   0   79.0   67   38 10   48   89
Balfour         2   2   4.37 31   0   35.0   30   17   4   19   38
Kemp           5   6   4.44 59   0   79.0   77   39   8   35   59
Guerrier         4   5   4.46 34 15   119.0 124   59 19   26   79
Romero*          3   4   4.50 71   0   64.0   58   32   6   40   55
Perkins*        5   6   4.57 24 23   128.0 131   65 18   45   94
Korecky         3   4   4.57 52   0   63.0   65   32   8   18   44
Lohse           10 13   4.64 33 32   190.0 207   98 25   53 105
Neshek           4   5   4.69 52   0   71.0   71   37 12   23   64
Gassner*        8 11   4.87 28 24   146.0 163   79 22   33   75
Durbin           4   6   4.89 23 20   103.0 101   56 13   50   85
Eyre           5   8   4.91 44 11   110.0 111   60 13   51   78
Mulholland*      3   4   5.20 44   7   97.0 113   56 15   31   39
Bonser           7 14   5.33 28 28   157.0 159   93 31   63 146
Mays           5 10   5.50 29 23   139.0 164   85 21   38   53
Schoening         3   8   5.56 35 12   102.0 110   63 19   43   71
Miller           2   7   6.08 13 13   71.0   84   48 13   29   32
Olson           3 13   6.75 35 12   96.0 107   72 23   53   71

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 28, 2005 at 04:23 PM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Boof Bonser Tree Posted: November 28, 2005 at 04:55 PM (#1749699)
If Morneau puts up those numbers I will be very happy.
I guess ZIPS thinks he will learn how to hit a breaking ball this year.
   2. 1k5v3L Posted: November 28, 2005 at 05:02 PM (#1749713)
Another Cy Young for Johan next year then?
   3. The District Attorney Posted: November 28, 2005 at 05:04 PM (#1749716)
Wow, nice rookie years for Baker and Liriano. Romero, not so much.

Boone's not making it through the season.

If Cuddyer has that same season again, they're really gonna have to do something.

This team could use some hitters, huh?
   4. Rob Base Posted: November 28, 2005 at 05:05 PM (#1749717)
Mauer is teh awesome.
   5. Craig in MN Posted: November 28, 2005 at 05:31 PM (#1749778)
Well, that's not as bad as I expected. If you put those top 9 names (except LeCroy) in a lineup, you'd have pretty decent group, with no glaring holes...a lot of guys with a .780 OPS which isn't bad. It's still a below average offense, and there's no depth there, but it isn't too far from being acceptable. They need to add one or two really good bats to improve the offense and help the depth. That's possible.

I think a healthy Stewart (and possibly Morneau) would likely top those numbers.
   6. RobLS Posted: November 28, 2005 at 05:41 PM (#1749798)
Baker is no longer a rookie. Could be the most underrated young pitcher in baseball though.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 28, 2005 at 05:49 PM (#1749810)
LeCroy has been cut loose, correct?
   8. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 28, 2005 at 05:53 PM (#1749814)
Man those guys cannot hit their way out of a paper bag.

Johan Santana is a Lord among men.

Lew Ford seriously needs to be freed.
   9. Craig in MN Posted: November 28, 2005 at 06:06 PM (#1749842)
Yep, LeCroy is a Free Agent. They were afraid of paying a one dimensional player ~$1.5 million in arbitration. Of course he's really only a half-dimensional as he can only hit lefties. But he's still a great pinch hitter/DH.

Somehow they can see fit to go to arbitration with a one-dimensional Punto, though, when they've got plenty of other options for his role.
   10. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 28, 2005 at 06:35 PM (#1749878)
Baker is no longer a rookie. Could be the most underrated young pitcher in baseball though.

You're right, he is. Evidence: I have never heard of him.
   11. BirdWatcher Posted: November 28, 2005 at 07:00 PM (#1749920)
What's happening with Caught Stealing. Looks like Zips barely gives the Twins a 60% success rate when it comes to stealing, with a whole bunch of lesser players near 50% or less.
   12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 28, 2005 at 07:06 PM (#1749934)
They were afraid of paying a one dimensional player ~$1.5 million in arbitration.

Sounds familiar. Not that LeCroy will go on to become a post-season hero and MVP candidate.
   13. Craig in MN Posted: November 28, 2005 at 07:39 PM (#1749985)
And it's probably the right decision at the time (again)....no one else will pay him that much either.

There's no way LeCroy goes on to have an Ortiz-like career. He's 3 years older than Ortiz was then, is in worsh shape physically, and is a lefty-masher. If you can't hit righties that well, you don't have enough opportunities to make an impact. By all accounts, he's a great person though.
   14. Halofan Posted: November 28, 2005 at 08:00 PM (#1750003)
If Zips is right I'm taking Mauer in my fantasy draft.

If Zips is wrong, whose @$$ do I get to kick?
   15. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 28, 2005 at 08:22 PM (#1750015)
Not much to get excited about with the hitting here. The team leader in walks projects to have only 55 and he's the youngest player on the team. While 5 guys project to top 100 K's.
   16. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 28, 2005 at 08:26 PM (#1750019)
With the cost of Ryan, Eyre, and Howry, I wish the Twins would look at dealing Nathan, Rincon or Crain. They have some guys like Bowyer, Neshek, Bonser, Balfour that could potential fill the role of 6th/7th inning man while the 2 of the 3 mentioned before left coudl handle the 8th/9th inning.
   17. Craig in MN Posted: November 28, 2005 at 09:36 PM (#1750127)
Nathan is a pretty well established "elite" closer. He's signed for 3 years, $15 million (or 2/$10 million if for some reason they don't pick up his option). I don't want them to trade him, but the bullpen shouldn't fall apart without him.

If BJ Ryan is getting a 5 year $47 million deal, and other closers on the market are getting anywhere near 4/40 deals, Nathan should have huge value on the trade market. I don't know which teams they might match up with, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if there is a team around willing to trade a great hitter for Nathan. I wouldn't even complain if they kept Romero and Lohse in that scenario.
   18. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 28, 2005 at 10:28 PM (#1750249)
That's what I'm thinking. Lets say Philly loses Wagner maybe a Joe Nathan for Chase Utley deal? Or the Orioles throw Brian Roberts and some prospects to the Twins for Nathan now that they are out one BJ Ryan. The Braves for Marcus Giles?
   19. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 28, 2005 at 10:53 PM (#1750334)
That's what I'm thinking. Lets say Philly loses Wagner maybe a Joe Nathan for Chase Utley deal?

If by "Chase Utley" you mean "Jason Michaels".

Or the Orioles throw Brian Roberts and some prospects to the Twins for Nathan now that they are out one BJ Ryan. The Braves for Marcus Giles?

Let's not go bananas here, GMoney. Joe Nathan may be a proven closer and slightly underpaid, but trading away a home-grown, good-hitting, popular, low-paid second baseman with 10-15 years left in his career (e.g. Utley, Roberts, Giles) is something that any team would really hate to do. Especially second basemen, they're tough to find (as you know from the Rivas experience).
   20. chris p Posted: November 28, 2005 at 10:55 PM (#1750341)
You're right, he is. Evidence: I have never heard of him.

he's the guy we're going to get back for mike lowell!
   21. Cris E Posted: November 28, 2005 at 11:22 PM (#1750361)
[Baker] is the guy we're going to get back for mike lowell!

Don't do that, it makes my head throb.

Here, you share the pain: "This is where we trade Hunter and Nathan for Utley and Michels." See how it makes your left eye water? Be kind to others, man.
   22. Randomly Fluctuating Defensive Metric Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:01 AM (#1750521)
One of these years, Jason Tyner is going to steal seventy bases and I'm going to look good for having him as a "sleeper..."
   23. sunnyday2 Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:47 AM (#1750564)
Notonly do these guys not hit a lot, but Gardenhire will put the higher OBA (among the non-power hitters) guys at 7 and 8 and the lower ones at 1 and 2.
   24. PFJ Posted: November 29, 2005 at 03:57 AM (#1750582)
Does anyone have confidence in that Kubel projection?
   25. Optimus_Primate Posted: November 29, 2005 at 04:06 AM (#1750598)
Sounds familiar. Not that LeCroy will go on to become a post-season hero and MVP candidate.

The money saved will be better spent on inferior players like Kevin Millar or Carl Everett, just like it went toward players like Rick Reed and Cristian Guzman in 2003.
   26. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 29, 2005 at 04:08 AM (#1750600)
That Morneau projection doesn't look great, but my Scoresheet team might have made the damned playoffs if he'd slugged anything close to .500
   27. Walt Davis Posted: November 29, 2005 at 09:20 AM (#1750897)
OK, LeCroy's not, but how about Morneau as the next Ortiz? They've bounced him up and down a couple times, he's been "disappointing" so far, that projection is nearly exactly what Ortiz's age 25-26 seasons looked like.

And we all know that a couple coincedental similarities virtually guarantees they'll turn out the same.
   28. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: November 29, 2005 at 09:48 AM (#1750915)
I'm taking bets on Bret Boone posting an 739 OPS next year. No forgetting way.
   29. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: November 29, 2005 at 09:51 AM (#1750918)
And we all know that a couple coincedental similarities virtually guarantees they'll turn out the same.

Yeah, especially with Justin Morneau's Dominican Republic Roots, we all know Morneau will take off just like Ortiz did.
   30. Russ Posted: January 11, 2006 at 10:41 PM (#1816828)
Yeah, especially with Justin Morneau's Dominican Republic Roots, we all know Morneau will take off just like Ortiz did.

Everyone knows you can't walk off the (Vancouver) island.
   31. WillYoung Posted: January 11, 2006 at 11:03 PM (#1816887)
OK, LeCroy's not, but how about Morneau as the next Ortiz?

Up until last season, Morneau actually had very similar production at similar levels and ages as Jim Thome. However, until Morneau learns to start walking, that comp will quickly pass.
   32. conan for president Posted: January 12, 2006 at 01:54 AM (#1817276)
Not much to get excited about with the hitting here. The team leader in walks projects to have only 55 and he's the youngest player on the team. While 5 guys project to top 100 K's.

Let's not forget about Luis Castillo. ZiPS has him at 74 walks and 54 Ks. I'm sure that ratio is one of the top projections for 2006. Last year I think his was better than 2:1. Replacing last year's disaster at 2nd base with Castillo is probably worth 4 wins.
   33. Boof Bonser Tree Posted: January 12, 2006 at 05:04 AM (#1817512)
Primey for #30

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