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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, December 05, 2005
2006 ZiPS Projections - New York Yankees
Name P AVG OBP SPC G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Rodriguez 3b .301 .400 .559 162 621 115 187 27 2 43 130 92 131 19 6
Giambi* 1b .250 .401 .488 133 424 67 106 17 0 28 82 94 106 0 1
Matsui* lf .294 .372 .477 161 608 98 179 41 2 22 103 75 87 2 2
Sheffield rf .271 .371 .468 148 547 91 148 27 0 27 101 81 67 7 4
Jeter ss .299 .368 .442 153 633 110 189 31 3 18 84 60 108 15 5
Posada# c .254 .358 .424 140 465 64 118 25 0 18 73 73 100 1 2
Phillips 1b .260 .326 .471 115 412 70 107 20 2 21 69 38 75 2 2
Bellhorn# 2b .234 .351 .386 127 435 61 102 25 1 13 53 76 145 4 2
Cano* 2b .286 .317 .438 150 587 89 168 29 6 16 80 25 77 3 2
Lawton* lf .254 .350 .390 135 497 81 126 23 0 15 72 65 69 14 10
Johnson 3b .254 .339 .390 105 331 47 84 24 0 7 42 41 56 4 4
Reese* cf .263 .330 .406 132 525 80 138 34 4 11 62 47 87 12 9
Vento rf .265 .326 .401 129 479 58 127 30 1 11 63 36 91 2 3
Jones lf .231 .306 .433 134 490 73 113 25 1 24 75 48 164 2 4
Williams# cf .241 .332 .362 138 494 62 119 22 1 12 63 68 75 2 3
Stinnett c .240 .313 .380 51 129 12 31 6 0 4 18 12 33 0 0
Cabrera# cf .269 .310 .367 137 521 74 140 18 3 9 60 28 91 8 2
Escalona 2b .247 .311 .357 112 361 51 89 20 1 6 40 24 56 3 1
Crosby* lf .253 .307 .367 108 297 37 75 12 2 6 35 20 47 6 3
Nieves c .270 .297 .368 107 389 44 105 19 2 5 40 13 52 2 1
Thurston* 2b .271 .309 .374 132 454 65 123 17 3 8 53 22 58 5 8
Sardinha* rf .237 .305 .355 120 439 53 104 20 1 10 49 39 112 7 3
Duncan* 3b .221 .299 .365 130 447 63 99 15 2 15 55 47 140 7 2
Martinez* 1b .219 .296 .359 131 379 46 83 14 0 13 54 38 65 2 1
Porter* rf .236 .297 .356 113 365 38 86 22 2 6 32 30 102 7 6
Womack* 2b .245 .288 .300 127 436 55 107 14 2 2 34 24 55 19 6
Parrish c .217 .281 .309 77 272 28 59 10 0 5 26 22 66 1 1
Guillen rf .230 .269 .300 117 434 53 100 11 2 5 37 18 84 5 3
Sierra# rf .205 .245 .305 88 249 21 51 10 0 5 31 14 50 1 0
Sanchez ss .213 .243 .266 85 263 21 56 9 1 1 21 9 29 1 1
Flaherty c .192 .222 .288 50 146 11 28 8 0 2 14 5 30 0 1
Name W L ERA G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Rivera 8 1 2.49 71 0 76.0 60 21 3 17 70
Johnson* 18 7 3.52 33 33 215.0 193 84 26 44 211
Farnsworth 3 2 3.73 73 0 70.0 56 29 7 29 82
Brown 11 6 3.92 23 23 147.0 149 64 11 40 107 (.38 $H in ‘05!)
Mussina 14 8 3.97 29 29 186.0 188 82 23 35 149
Pavano 12 8 4.18 27 27 181.0 193 84 19 37 103
Bean 6 5 4.38 59 0 74.0 66 36 8 35 76
Chacon 9 7 4.40 32 20 131.0 125 64 13 54 78
Wang 8 7 4.40 23 23 141.0 148 69 15 39 79
Bergman* 5 4 4.44 35 20 142.0 152 70 18 33 91
Anderson 3 3 4.64 52 1 64.0 63 33 8 24 46
Embree* 3 3 4.67 68 0 52.0 54 27 8 13 40
Rodriguez 4 4 4.83 60 0 54.0 53 29 6 25 41
Sturtze 4 4 4.86 51 2 76.0 78 41 10 30 47
Mendoza 2 3 4.91 32 0 55.0 63 30 9 12 29
Small 8 9 4.97 29 22 145.0 165 80 23 33 74
DeSalvo 6 6 5.01 22 21 124.0 123 69 15 61 94
Proctor 4 5 5.05 61 1 82.0 83 46 15 29 73
Redding 8 9 5.08 28 24 133.0 147 75 16 48 81
Karstens 9 11 5.09 27 26 168.0 196 95 27 38 97
Manning* 4 6 5.13 43 6 86.0 88 49 10 43 60
Wright 9 12 5.13 29 29 156.0 163 89 18 72 109
Smith* 4 5 5.30 37 6 73.0 74 43 8 38 59
Leiter* 8 12 5.33 31 28 162.0 165 96 17 91 103
Henn* 6 8 5.34 24 24 128.0 138 76 15 60 77
Munro 7 10 5.37 39 18 124.0 146 74 19 36 69
May* 8 11 5.45 33 25 170.0 195 103 34 45 101
Nomo 7 11 5.63 24 24 144.0 154 90 22 71 95
Marsonek 3 5 5.67 48 2 73.0 83 46 12 30 44
Beam 4 6 5.72 35 10 96.0 109 61 20 32 72
Franklin* 4 7 5.88 46 17 127.0 140 83 24 57 79
Borrell* 2 4 6.57 15 12 63.0 78 46 14 24 31
De Paula 2 6 6.97 26 22 115.0 141 89 36 43 75
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 05, 2005 at 03:58 PM | 94 comment(s)
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1. Sean McNally Posted: December 05, 2005 at 04:28 PM (#1761502)That Kevin Reese projection is kind of intriguing, though. What's Juan Pierre's ZiPS? Jason Michaels'?
I'd take the lines from Phillips, Farnsworth, Mussina, and Pavano in a heartbeat. The others, eh.
Santana and Bean seem to be some of the best relievers on the team, one I've never heard of and the other is definately not going to get to pitch.
The Matsui projection would be pretty good, but Sheffield loses alot of power in his.
He can no longer be tricked by Barry Bonds into taking steroids.
You can do this if you ignore the fact that Chacon's G/F ratio was 0.90 last year and Pavano's was 1.60 and fly ball pitchers historically demonstrate lower BABIP.
His contract is finally over, right?
Anyone know if he's retired or trying to find a job?
Jaret Wright... maybe not a good signing
Kevin Brown???? They wish.
If you give me Pavano's 2004 BABIP, I'd be a major league starter! Sweet!
Kevin Brown no longer resembles a major league pitcher. To what population are you regressing his BABIP, dan?
It seems to me that he could take ABs in which he used to get a BB and get good wood on the ball - expanding his strike zone or whatever. If this were true, BA and OBP are more independant of each other, right?
I want to see a Cano-for-Pierre swap, just to see Yankee fan primates' heads explode.
And I think the Yanks should hold on to the guy who is making 300,000 dollars next year and see if he can build on his success last year. Bellhorn's career EQA is .269, Cano's is .275. One's got no range, the other has good range. One is 31 next year, the other is 23. Cano has significant upside, whether or not people on this board want to admit it or not. Cano isn't going to be enough to get anyone we want, and is too promising to piss away on anyone the Yanks can get. There's one guy left in the Yankee infield on the right side of thirty (A-rod's 30 next year IIRC), one guy who will be able to play his position in the next four years on the team and you think they should get rid of him? No F'in way man.
Rodriguez turned thirty this past July.
So, considering there isn't a CF worth taking a flier on in a trade, the Yanks are really better off keeping Cano and just dishing the cash to get Jesus...
Who's in the Jesus sweepstakes, anyway? That's been pretty quiet this winter.
Red Sox
Cubs
Yankees
Anyone else? The Dodgers (assuming they dump Bradley)? The Giants?
Somebody didn't read the DISCLAIMER!
I'd say Bellhorn would come pretty cheap. I won't be shocked to see the Cardinals give him a shot as a platoon player at 2B if the Yankees don't offer him arbitration...
Tigers came out of nowhere to "get" Magglio. I really don't think the Yanks are going to sign Damon. I sure as hell can't think of any other options really. I wonder how far his price is going to fall before someone signs him.
I think he's a good one for about 3/$30 million.
If they get rid of Finley, they've got internal options in center in Erstad, Figgins, and Rivera. I don't know why they'd bring in another CF.
Of course, I don't know why they brought in Finley to begin with.
VORP differential of about 16 runs between Stinnett(5.3) and Flaherty(-9.6).
I think he's a good one for about 3/$30 million.
In this market, he'd be underpaid at 3/$30. Seven years is too long, but $4/50 is more realistic.
Cano's got no range? I hadn't been aware of that.
I see ZiPS projects the Aaron Small pixie dust to wear off.
That's a start; they'll probably end up getting him at 5 years and 65m.
How about Darren's hat?
If the Yankees can sign Damon; hell, if they can sign ANYBODY for 50 years for under five bucks, I think they should.
I'd take it. With Damon, years are much more important to me than cash.
Boo.
I knew someone would call me on my misplaced dollar sign.
No way that Damon signs for less than four years, and I would be somewhat surprised if he signed for less than five.
Plus Chacon has a pretty solid history of allowing a low BABIP as a starter. His three years in Colorado they were .294, .261, and .276. In Colorado, that's pretty good.
I don't know why some people are so down on Cano. He doesn't walk a lot, but he also doesn't strike out all that much. Players always seem to improve their K/BB a lot their second year, and Cano's discipline was never this bad in the minors. He'll probably never be a star, but if he can consistently hit .285/.330/.460 then he'll be a pretty solid second basemen.
He hasn't struck out more than he walked in any season since 1993...but last year he came close, 78BB/76K
If anything, the Bb-K ratio in the projection is probably off. If he is going to drop down that much in B.A., he will probably see a corresponding decline in his BB-KK ratio whereby he actually K's more than he walks for the first time in 13 years.
If he maintains something like the 81-67 projected above, that would probably indicate his bat speed, eye, etc, all have not slipped, and therefore there would be no reason to think his averages would drop significantly.
Either he is declining or he's not. The projection above seems to contradict itself.
He is most likely going to retire with over 500 homers and over 1700 RBI, and have an OPS+ in the top 60 all time. (He currently ranks 48th)
He may not actually get in on the first ballot, because he is not warm and fuzzy like the voters prefer...but he is that caliber player, IMHO
Trend: Jason Giambi wreaked havoc in the second half. The only reason why his numbers weren't on M.V.P caliber was because of a pathetic first two months. What is a greater indication of Giambi's future, short term [this year] performance? Obviously, the last few months, but with ZIPS, he gets hurt with what ultimately amounts to dead, meaningless stats.
Trend: Shawn Chacon escapes Coors Field and pitches lights out down the stretch and very well in a play off start. Why is he getting penalized for pitching in the ultimate hitter's park? Realize Chacon is a guy who relies on "bad contact" and with so much "good contact" being made at his home games, it scared him from pitching to the bat in the strike zone. His whole style was wrecked, even on the road, where bad habits and a possible loss of confidence seeped into his overall game. Hence the weak peripherals, especially walks to strike outs.
MGL's going to kill you, by the way... (figuratively speaking, of course :) )
Trends: There are those who argue that they are meaningless. Less than meaningless, actually, because they mislead. A player's total record, weighted properly and adjusted for age and other various things, will give you a much better prediction of his future than a trend.
So, you're putting more weight on the fifteen appearances he made in a Yankee uniform than on the 150 appearances he made in a Rockie uniform?
I like Chacon, and I tend to take DIPS with a big grain of salt, but I think a 4.40 ERA is about right, especially for a pitcher with his low "K" rate playing in front of Yankee defense.
Weasels. Appropriate, ain't it?
Jesus doesn't chase big money. If you give him two dollars, he'll just keep multiplying them until he has what he needs, like the loaves and the fishes.
I think the absolute best-case scenario for Cano is Jose Vidro, and while that's good, it shouldn't necessarily be "untouchable". Especially since I expect the Yanks to dump him for pennies on the dollar after a consolidation year in '06.
Just for grins, ERA+ of all Yankee starters who pitched >100 innings in the past five years:
2005 -- 117, 111, 101, 93
2004 -- 110, 104, 98, 92
2003 -- 128, 112, 109, 106
2002 -- 134, 120, 117, 108, 101
2001 -- 142, 128, 112, 83
Throwing out things like Brown's projection and adjusting Johnson down a touch for age, I'm guessing that this would give the Yanks a rotation of something like 120, 110, 105, 101, 99. If they get 900 innings of that, it's a HUGE upgrade over what they've had the last two years. Even if they just get a 120 out of Randy and 100's out of everybody else, it's still an improvement.
I can't see how anyone but a fool would expect Chacon to be closer to his 2005 Yankee form than his career. If you want to give him credit for some kind of Coors' effect, perhaps bump him up to a 110-115 ERA+, but any more than that is craziness
I also can't get over Kevin " Burn in Hell" Brown sporting the fourth lowest ERA on the team. Shouldn't there be a completely, utterly washed out variable here? This guy didn't have a fork in his back, he had a steak knife.
Arrghhh... and I don't see what is so hard to understand what I mean by following trends in a player's performance over the final two or three months of a season. Jason Giambi gets killed in ZIPS because he had a parasitic year [literally and figuratively] in 2004. What that has to do about his perfomance in 2006 is beyond me.
But what sort of ERA did Roger Clemens put up with the Yankees defense in the early Aughts? As I recall, mostly in the high 3s. I don't think its unreasonable to expect Shawn "Not As Good As Roger Clemens" Chacon to put up a higher ERA than that in front of what probably isn't a significantly better defense. And, like lots of people have said, a 4.40 ERA would be pretty good and certainly would win a lot of games, considering they should have a good offense.
Excellent - the controversial picks always seem to make my projections look better than they are. Anecdotally, it's the easy ones that ZiPS screws up. Most notably, 3 of the projections I've gotten the most e-mails about was Weaver having a better ERA than Brown after the trade, Troy Percival's big projected ERA drop in 2005, and projecting Oakland's rotation to be fine.
Seriously, though, I have the RMSE down to 0.86 for 2005 projections; I replicated BP's examinatino from 2 years ago for pitchers with 130 IP and the 0.86 would tie PECOTA for the best that year. Gonna look at the hitters next. I've managed to reduce the errors every year so far.
Lol, well still though, I take people knocking the Straight Gangsta way 2 personally.
I see it as Chacon saved the season last year, being the most consistant pitcher on the team [second half, Small had some rough patches] and allowing me 2 forget Jaret Wright made more money in a year than I will set eyes on my entire life.
Plus, I was at his first start where he tripped over the mound and everyone wondered what the hell just happened.
Giambi is funny example to try and prove your point, since I'm pretty sure when the Yankees '05 projections were released there were a lot of people saying "no way Giambi does that well, he's finished."
I also can't get over Kevin " Burn in Hell" Brown sporting the fourth lowest ERA on the team. Shouldn't there be a completely, utterly washed out variable here? This guy didn't have a fork in his back, he had a steak knife.
Utterly washed out guys don't allow only 5 HRs with a 19:50 BB:K in 73.1 innings. A .381 $H is completely unsustainable - Voros looked at all stints of hitters pitching and the result was something like .315.
Uing the DIPS excel sheet I got, and using a .315 BABIP ( still a little high) I came up with a 4.20 ERA
Of course - but the question is why Brown had a .381 $H. It could mean that Brown was unlucky in the extreme, and that his true talent level now is closer to what Dan's projecting. But it could also mean that Brown is no longer capable of holding major league hitters below a BABIP level which would allow him to be successful - in which case he won't get to pitch very much, if at all.
-- MWE
I agree. Curt Schilling went through the same thing last year. While most pitchers can't control BABIP, I think there are a few where its not just luck - the pitcher still has decent control but can't get any movement or speed on his pitches, and balls are rocketed all over the park.
I know that Curt Schilling and Kevin Brown can't keep hitters at really low levels of BABIP anymore, but they can probably do better than the ridiculous BABIPs they had last year.
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