Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, December 07, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A’s


Name           P   AVG   OBP   SPC   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Chavez*        3b .278 .361 .493 155 612 92 170 37 1 31 106 81 110 6 1
Durazo*        1b .282 .381 .453 120 426 60 120 26 1 15 65 65 79 2 2
Johnson*        1b .276 .366 .460 154 561 86 155 29 1 24 90 78 83 1 2
Crosby         ss .270 .353 .448 128 489 77 132 29 2 18 70 59 98 5 3
Kotsay*        cf .295 .354 .432 144 590 73 174 35 2 14 78 55 61 6 6
Swisher#        lf .238 .344 .438 130 470 76 112 29 1 21 73 73 109 1 2
Ellis         2b .283 .358 .413 137 501 74 142 27 4 10 60 55 68 3 3
Watson*        lf .267 .344 .434 126 454 68 121 29 1 15 66 52 60 6 3
Kielty#        lf .255 .362 .389 116 365 51 93 19 0 10 49 59 65 3 2
Cust*          lf .227 .362 .390 128 441 72 100 22 1 16 58 92 142 2 3
Barton*        c   .268 .358 .375 122 411 79 110 16 2 8 51 55 73 2 2
Kendall         c   .286 .364 .349 148 591 71 169 29 1 2 56 55 37 8 4
Ginter         2b .246 .335 .403 109 362 41 89 22 1 11 51 43 78 2 1
Payton         cf .270 .321 .418 133 466 62 126 20 2 15 65 34 52 2 1
Perry*        lf .248 .315 .422 118 412 65 102 20 2 16 59 33 114 2 4
Scutaro         2b .266 .321 .397 125 406 47 108 25 2 8 46 33 51 4 3
Thomas*        lf .254 .329 .373 121 386 51 98 19 3 7 42 41 70 7 3
Ethier*        lf .265 .324 .390 118 441 74 117 21 2 10 51 31 81 1 4
Brown         c   .230 .326 .363 114 391 52 90 20 1 10 45 49 80 0 1
Garrett#        rf .261 .312 .396 134 505 68 132 25 2 13 63 34 112 12 8
Hatteberg*      1b .244 .332 .352 139 491 54 120 23 0 10 58 61 49 0 1
Rouse*        ss .252 .338 .348 128 440 61 111 22 1 6 47 53 97 2 2
Smith         3b .245 .300 .400 116 433 57 106 26 1 13 57 32 88 6 4
Morrissey       2b .247 .319 .343 111 396 55 98 15 1 7 42 40 102 2 2
Colamarino*      1b .236 .293 .380 129 474 62 112 22 2 14 62 33 107 0 0
Baker*        c   .238 .302 .357 125 437 55 104 21 2 9 49 37 110 1 1
Snyder         3b .235 .312 .336 99 324 34 76 10 1 7 31 37 84 5 2
Melhuse#        c   .229 .298 .366 77 227 24 52 13 0 6 28 22 51 1 2
Bocachica       cf .235 .305 .393 87 247 30 58 13 1 8 31 24 53 8 9
Clark*        2b .230 .324 .326 106 356 42 82 12 2 6 39 48 49 15 12
Bynum*        2b .250 .316 .320 129 488 67 122 17 4 3 42 42 111 20 14
Suzuki         c   .224 .304 .318 116 415 69 93 17 2 6 41 37 61 3 2
Kiger         2b .227 .307 .307 135 485 65 110 25 1 4 39 54 103 7 5
Gregorio       c   .206 .249 .312 53 170 16 35 9 0 3 18   9 45 1 1

Name           W   L   ERA   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Street           5   1   2.49 64   0   76.0   56   21   2   23   73
Harden         12   4   3.30 26 25   158.0 127   58 11   59 149
Duchscherer       8   4   3.44 60   0   89.0   76   34   9   24   75
Calero           3   1   3.49 48   0   49.0   40   19   6   16   48
Dotel           7   3   3.53 68   0   79.0   60   31 10   30   92
Witasick         3   2   3.71 59   0   68.0   56   28   6   29   65
Mabeus           7   4   3.71 46   0   63.0   56   26   7   18   62
Blanton         14   8   3.88 32 30   188.0 178   81 21   50 127
Kohn           4   2   3.93 48   0   71.0   68   31   9   17   59
Loaiza         13   9   3.95 33 32   214.0 209   94 21   59 151
Haren           14 10   4.02 34 31   197.0 188   88 26   48 153
Zito*          14 11   4.14 35 35   222.0 198 102 24   87 163
Cruz           5   4   4.15 41   9   91.0   79   42 10   40   94
Flores*          5   3   4.15 58   0   65.0   58   30   8   25   61
Garcia           4   4   4.28 50   0   61.0   47   29   8   32   78
Gaudin           9   7   4.32 32 22   148.0 152   71 20   38 106
Saarloos         8   7   4.34 28 23   137.0 143   66   9   46   48
Kennedy*        9   9   4.59 32 25   155.0 157   79 17   56   95
Ziegler         7   9   4.82 27 25   155.0 172   83 23   38   80
Glynn           5   6   4.90 26 19   112.0 110   61 15   49   81
Rincon*          2   2   4.91 66   0   44.0   41   24   5   25   34
Meyer*          5   7   4.96 23 20   107.0 108   59 15   44   87
Rheinecker*      6   9   5.01 24 24   151.0 161   84 24   49   90
Fahrner         3   5   5.04 50   0   75.0   75   42   9   36   55
Ramos*          5   7   5.15 37 16   117.0 120   67 20   47   85
Yabu           3   5   5.16 40   0   61.0   64   35   9   24   40
Roney           6   8   5.37 38 14   119.0 132   71 22   40   78
Nannini         6   9   5.44 31 20   134.0 144   81 27   47   88
Bondurant*        7 12   5.59 25 25   148.0 168   92 26   54   85
Sullivan         3   9   6.35 27 19   136.0 169   96 26   54   52
Smyth*          2   6   6.87 23 16   93.0 102   71 17   70   59

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 07, 2005 at 10:03 PM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 07, 2005 at 10:27 PM (#1766193)
Nice, balanced club - just needs a stud or two.

Not a criticism of ZiPS, but I think Roney could be a nice addition to the A's pen - he's long had a reliever's repetoire, last season showed what he can do in that role.
   2. Dewey, Crackpot and Soupuss Posted: December 07, 2005 at 10:33 PM (#1766198)
ZIPS really likes the A's offense.
   3. AROM Posted: December 07, 2005 at 10:36 PM (#1766204)
It just goes to show how overrated starting pitching can be. Zito's rumored to be traded for a big bat. Chad Gaudin comes over for a PTBNL. What's the difference between a 4.14 ERA and 4.32 in 200 innings? About 4 runs.

My projection system has a bigger spread than that, but even if I'm right and ZIPS is wrong (which I'm not claiming) its no more than 10 runs.
   4. J. Cross Posted: December 07, 2005 at 10:41 PM (#1766214)
ZiPS projects Loaiza to have a lower ERA than Zito. But would any place even money on Loaiza?
   5. Danny Posted: December 07, 2005 at 10:44 PM (#1766219)
I'm hoping for more out of Swisher, but that's a nice comeback projection for Kotsay.

Zito projected as the 5th best starter, huh?

The bullpen looks very deep. Mabeus deserves a chance with someone, but he probably won't get it with the A's. Kohn's got great stats in the minors, but he's been killed against good competition (AAA and AFL).
   6. Dewey, Crackpot and Soupuss Posted: December 07, 2005 at 10:44 PM (#1766221)
Octavio Dotel's done, right?
   7. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 07, 2005 at 10:46 PM (#1766226)
"But would any place even money on Loaiza?"

I might take that action. There's a reasonable chance that if Zito's dealt, it'll be to a bad park.
   8. Dewey, Crackpot and Soupuss Posted: December 07, 2005 at 10:46 PM (#1766227)
Zito projected as the 5th best starter, huh?

It's still punishing him for 2004. Barring injury, he'll beat that projection.
   9. sardonic Posted: December 07, 2005 at 10:46 PM (#1766228)
Watson/Kielty platoon at DH would probably provide decent production (and would make me feel better about gambling on Thomas) and would also free up Beane to potentially deal Zito for the best package of talent without needing to get an MLB-ready bat in return.
   10. Danny Posted: December 07, 2005 at 10:47 PM (#1766229)
Which Ziegler is that, Brad or Mike?
   11. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 07, 2005 at 10:48 PM (#1766231)
Any projection for Shane Komine? Does ZiPS consider AFL stats?

That projection for Durazo seems awfully rosy even if you don't know that he was terribly injured last season (as ZiPS presumably doesn't.)

Flores*              5   3   4.15  58   0    65.0   58   30   8   25   61
Rincon*              2   2   4.91  66   0    44.0   41   24   5   25   34 


Mr. Beane, take note.
   12. A triple short of the cycle Posted: December 07, 2005 at 10:58 PM (#1766248)
Crosby and Swisher will exceed these ZIPs predictions.... I think and hope.

And here's hoping for more than 158 innings out of Harden.

Dotel filed for free agency, said he'd be fully recovered by the start of the season.
   13. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 07, 2005 at 11:05 PM (#1766256)
Any projection for Shane Komine?
Projecting the Hawaiian Punchout is like writing a Mad Lib: he'll look great until his <u> (noun)</u> falls off.
   14. Danny Posted: December 07, 2005 at 11:06 PM (#1766257)
I'm pretty sure Mr. Beane has noted that, AS. He's not offering Rincon arbitration, which means he's gone.

The current staff right now would likely be:

Zito, Harden, Loaiza, Haren, Blanton
Street, Duchscherer, Calero, Witasick, Kennedy, Saarloos, Cruz

That leaves Flores, Mabeus, Roney, and Kohn in Sacto.
   15. Rob Base Posted: December 07, 2005 at 11:37 PM (#1766277)
Zito gets a lot of popups and the like. DIPS-type systems will always underrate him.
   16. The Hop-Clop Goes On (psa1) Posted: December 08, 2005 at 12:01 AM (#1766314)
DIPS-type systems will always underrate him.

Like how it projected Z for 3.67 with 188 hits and 182 K's in 218 IP in 2004...actual performance: 4.48, 216 H, 163 K's, 213 IP. Even if you argue that 2004 was affected by injuries he pitched through, I'd think that if such systems underrate him, he would've overperformed that in the following age 27 "healthy" season. He did outperform ZiPS last year, but that's probably more due to 2004 being an outlier for Z than any problems projected pitchers like him.
   17. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: December 08, 2005 at 12:35 AM (#1766361)
Harden's gonna beat a 3.00 ERA next year, mark my words. That said, the offensive predictions please me. Personally I'd also say Blanton and Haren switch those ERA's up there. Haren, to me at least, seems much more capable of keeping a mid 3's ERA than Blanton.
   18. Passed Ball Posted: December 08, 2005 at 12:54 AM (#1766395)
Daric Barton is back at catcher. Sweet!

This team really needs another big RH bat. Their reported pursuit of Piazza/Big Hurt makes a lot of sense.
   19. Rob Base Posted: December 08, 2005 at 01:01 AM (#1766406)

Like how it projected Z for 3.67 with 188 hits and 182 K's in 218 IP in 2004...actual performance: 4.48, 216 H, 163 K's, 213 IP. Even if you argue that 2004 was affected by injuries he pitched through, I'd think that if such systems underrate him, he would've overperformed that in the following age 27 "healthy" season. He did outperform ZiPS last year, but that's probably more due to 2004 being an outlier for Z than any problems projected pitchers like him.


His DIPS ERA was 4.53 in 2004. Here are some others:

Year ERA DIPS
2000 2.72 4.00
2001 3.49 3.63
2002 2.75 4.01

Thanks for playing, though.
   20. Rob Base Posted: December 08, 2005 at 01:06 AM (#1766414)
And, for the sake of completeness, 2003:

DIPS = 4.28

ERA = 3.30
   21. Danny Posted: December 08, 2005 at 01:28 AM (#1766444)
My apologies, AS, the A's offered Rincon arbitration (and didn't offer Dotel or Durazo). Since Rincon isn't even a type C free agent, there was no point in offering unless they want to bring him back.
   22. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: December 08, 2005 at 01:34 AM (#1766454)
My apologies, AS, the A's offered Rincon arbitration (and didn't offer Dotel or Durazo). Since Rincon isn't even a type C free agent, there was no point in offering unless they want to bring him back.


And so Ron Flores cries himself to sleep tonight.


Flores* 5 3 4.15 58 0 65.0 58 30 8 25 61
Rincon* 2 2 4.91 66 0 44.0 41 24 5 25 34


Billy I know you're allowed to spend a little more money now but that doesn't mean you suddenly have to make us the Orioles.
   23. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 08, 2005 at 02:06 AM (#1766484)
My apologies, AS, the A's offered Rincon arbitration (and didn't offer Dotel or Durazo). Since Rincon isn't even a type C free agent, there was no point in offering unless they want to bring him back.

*pitiful whine*
   24. Darren Posted: December 08, 2005 at 02:11 AM (#1766495)
Dotel filed for free agency, said he'd be fully recovered by the start of the season.

Ah, but which season?
   25. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 08, 2005 at 02:40 AM (#1766563)
No Rincon please. This Blanton guy looks pretty good.
   26. Traderdave Posted: December 08, 2005 at 02:53 AM (#1766589)
Can someone post the formula or a precise definition of DIPS?

I understand the concept at base but have no dea how the number is generated.
   27. A triple short of the cycle Posted: December 08, 2005 at 03:08 AM (#1766626)
Sigh... another season of watching Rincon warm up (my season tickets are by the bullpen mound), enter, and pitch to one batter in every game I attend.
   28. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 08, 2005 at 03:12 AM (#1766635)
Wow, I'm surprised Saarloos projects so well. It seems like a disaster waiting to happen, not that the A's are dumb enough to count on anything from him.
   29. A triple short of the cycle Posted: December 08, 2005 at 03:23 AM (#1766651)
This team really needs another big RH bat. Their reported pursuit of Piazza/Big Hurt makes a lot of sense.


This team is one healthy Frank Thomas away from looking like a winner. [knocks on wood]
   30. Russ Posted: December 08, 2005 at 04:28 AM (#1766733)
Wow, I'm surprised Saarloos projects so well.

Not giving up home runs gives you a lot of leeway to be mediocre in other areas. In some way, it establishes a higher lower bound to your value (in the same way that not striking out a lot of guys establishes a lower higher bound). Saarloos is basically looking like Bob Walk, which gives him a chance at a pretty decent career.
   31. Danny Posted: December 08, 2005 at 05:02 AM (#1766771)
Interesting stuff in this <a href="http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051207&c>MLB.com</a> article:

Late Wednesday, another rumor popped up, with the Phillies said to have offered outfielder Bobby Abreu, catcher Mike Lieberthal and pitching prospect Gavin Floyd for lefty Barry Zito and catcher Jason Kendall.

Given that Abreu is owed roughly $30 million over the next two seasons and Lieberthal is scheduled to make $7.5 million next year, such a deal would increase Oakland's payroll over the next two years by more than $10 million. Kendall is owed $24 million over the next two seasons, but the Pirates are paying $5 million of that in 2007, and Zito is scheduled to make $7.9 million next season -- not $8.5 million, as Forst reminded reporters -- in the last year of his contract.


That's...intriguing. It seems the A's would be increasing their 2006 payroll by about $3.5M and their 2007 payroll by about $9M. They'd have to move Payton if they're going to sign Thomas. The dropoff from Zito to Saarloos would be much smaller than the improvement from Payton to Abreu. I would guess Lieberthal and Kendall project similarly enough. I'm not a big fan of Floyd, who doesn't seem better than Gaudin aside from the pedigree. I dunno.

MLB.com has learned that Rincon has already agreed to reject the offer, and the club will wait to see how their expected addition of a right-handed power hitter affects the payroll before making Rincon a free-agent offer.


Good news. For now.

Rincon, who over his career has allowed the lowest percentage of inherited runners to score -- 19.2 -- among all big league relievers since 1974, has until Dec. 19 to accept the arbitration offer. Should he reject it, the A's have until Jan. 8 to negotiate and sign him.


Pretty impressive, without looking at the context.
   32. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 08, 2005 at 05:05 AM (#1766776)
His DIPS ERA was 4.53 in 2004. Here are some others:

Year ERA DIPS
2000 2.72 4.00
2001 3.49 3.63
2002 2.75 4.01

Thanks for playing, though.


The problem here is that you're reading too much into what DIPS does. The I stands for independent - we have pretty good indicators that the A's defense has been excellent, and you'd expect DIPS, even if it was a perfect measure of defense-independent performance (which it isn't) to miss high for pitchers on good defensive teams.
   33. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: December 08, 2005 at 12:19 PM (#1767269)
The problem here is that you're reading too much into what DIPS does. The I stands for independent - we have pretty good indicators that the A's defense has been excellent, and you'd expect DIPS, even if it was a perfect measure of defense-independent performance (which it isn't) to miss high for pitchers on good defensive teams.

Because Zito is a high-BIP pitcher, he also relies more on his defense than a high-K pitcher. This means that a good defensive team will help him more than it'd help a Pedro Martinez, for example. Zito (or Lowe, or Hudson) are very good pitchers for teams that have invested heavily in defense and likely disasters for those who have foresaken defense for hitting.
   34. Danny Posted: December 08, 2005 at 03:02 PM (#1767349)
Because Zito is a high-BIP pitcher, he also relies more on his defense than a high-K pitcher. This means that a good defensive team will help him more than it'd help a Pedro Martinez, for example. Zito (or Lowe, or Hudson) are very good pitchers for teams that have invested heavily in defense and likely disasters for those who have foresaken defense for hitting.


This is much more true of Saarloos than Zito. Zito actually has an above average K-rate given his park/league. Saarloos, on the other hand, has low HR and BB rates and a very low K-rate--which means a ton of BIP. The situation in Oakland--a park that suppresses rBIP and in front of a good defense--is near ideal for him.
   35. The Polish Sausage Racer Posted: December 08, 2005 at 07:07 PM (#1767888)
Whoa, ZiPS really likes Durazo's chances for a major comeback....any particular reason why?
   36. DCA Posted: December 08, 2005 at 07:18 PM (#1767936)
Whoa, ZiPS really likes Durazo's chances for a major comeback....any particular reason why?

Because he was really good before he got hurt
   37. sardonic Posted: December 08, 2005 at 08:20 PM (#1768126)
I just noticed that Matt Watson has a higher projected OBP and SLG than Jay Payton. I know Payton is supposedly a wizard with the glove, but...

FREE MATT WATSON!!

I know he's 27 and doesn't have much room to grow, but he's probably one of those classic "replacement level" guys that should prevent teams from running people like... Scott Hatteberg out on a day to day basis.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Phil Birnbaum
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

 

Page rendered in 0.2435 seconds
47 querie(s) executed