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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, December 07, 2005
2006 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A’s
Name P AVG OBP SPC G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Chavez* 3b .278 .361 .493 155 612 92 170 37 1 31 106 81 110 6 1
Durazo* 1b .282 .381 .453 120 426 60 120 26 1 15 65 65 79 2 2
Johnson* 1b .276 .366 .460 154 561 86 155 29 1 24 90 78 83 1 2
Crosby ss .270 .353 .448 128 489 77 132 29 2 18 70 59 98 5 3
Kotsay* cf .295 .354 .432 144 590 73 174 35 2 14 78 55 61 6 6
Swisher# lf .238 .344 .438 130 470 76 112 29 1 21 73 73 109 1 2
Ellis 2b .283 .358 .413 137 501 74 142 27 4 10 60 55 68 3 3
Watson* lf .267 .344 .434 126 454 68 121 29 1 15 66 52 60 6 3
Kielty# lf .255 .362 .389 116 365 51 93 19 0 10 49 59 65 3 2
Cust* lf .227 .362 .390 128 441 72 100 22 1 16 58 92 142 2 3
Barton* c .268 .358 .375 122 411 79 110 16 2 8 51 55 73 2 2
Kendall c .286 .364 .349 148 591 71 169 29 1 2 56 55 37 8 4
Ginter 2b .246 .335 .403 109 362 41 89 22 1 11 51 43 78 2 1
Payton cf .270 .321 .418 133 466 62 126 20 2 15 65 34 52 2 1
Perry* lf .248 .315 .422 118 412 65 102 20 2 16 59 33 114 2 4
Scutaro 2b .266 .321 .397 125 406 47 108 25 2 8 46 33 51 4 3
Thomas* lf .254 .329 .373 121 386 51 98 19 3 7 42 41 70 7 3
Ethier* lf .265 .324 .390 118 441 74 117 21 2 10 51 31 81 1 4
Brown c .230 .326 .363 114 391 52 90 20 1 10 45 49 80 0 1
Garrett# rf .261 .312 .396 134 505 68 132 25 2 13 63 34 112 12 8
Hatteberg* 1b .244 .332 .352 139 491 54 120 23 0 10 58 61 49 0 1
Rouse* ss .252 .338 .348 128 440 61 111 22 1 6 47 53 97 2 2
Smith 3b .245 .300 .400 116 433 57 106 26 1 13 57 32 88 6 4
Morrissey 2b .247 .319 .343 111 396 55 98 15 1 7 42 40 102 2 2
Colamarino* 1b .236 .293 .380 129 474 62 112 22 2 14 62 33 107 0 0
Baker* c .238 .302 .357 125 437 55 104 21 2 9 49 37 110 1 1
Snyder 3b .235 .312 .336 99 324 34 76 10 1 7 31 37 84 5 2
Melhuse# c .229 .298 .366 77 227 24 52 13 0 6 28 22 51 1 2
Bocachica cf .235 .305 .393 87 247 30 58 13 1 8 31 24 53 8 9
Clark* 2b .230 .324 .326 106 356 42 82 12 2 6 39 48 49 15 12
Bynum* 2b .250 .316 .320 129 488 67 122 17 4 3 42 42 111 20 14
Suzuki c .224 .304 .318 116 415 69 93 17 2 6 41 37 61 3 2
Kiger 2b .227 .307 .307 135 485 65 110 25 1 4 39 54 103 7 5
Gregorio c .206 .249 .312 53 170 16 35 9 0 3 18 9 45 1 1
Name W L ERA G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Street 5 1 2.49 64 0 76.0 56 21 2 23 73
Harden 12 4 3.30 26 25 158.0 127 58 11 59 149
Duchscherer 8 4 3.44 60 0 89.0 76 34 9 24 75
Calero 3 1 3.49 48 0 49.0 40 19 6 16 48
Dotel 7 3 3.53 68 0 79.0 60 31 10 30 92
Witasick 3 2 3.71 59 0 68.0 56 28 6 29 65
Mabeus 7 4 3.71 46 0 63.0 56 26 7 18 62
Blanton 14 8 3.88 32 30 188.0 178 81 21 50 127
Kohn 4 2 3.93 48 0 71.0 68 31 9 17 59
Loaiza 13 9 3.95 33 32 214.0 209 94 21 59 151
Haren 14 10 4.02 34 31 197.0 188 88 26 48 153
Zito* 14 11 4.14 35 35 222.0 198 102 24 87 163
Cruz 5 4 4.15 41 9 91.0 79 42 10 40 94
Flores* 5 3 4.15 58 0 65.0 58 30 8 25 61
Garcia 4 4 4.28 50 0 61.0 47 29 8 32 78
Gaudin 9 7 4.32 32 22 148.0 152 71 20 38 106
Saarloos 8 7 4.34 28 23 137.0 143 66 9 46 48
Kennedy* 9 9 4.59 32 25 155.0 157 79 17 56 95
Ziegler 7 9 4.82 27 25 155.0 172 83 23 38 80
Glynn 5 6 4.90 26 19 112.0 110 61 15 49 81
Rincon* 2 2 4.91 66 0 44.0 41 24 5 25 34
Meyer* 5 7 4.96 23 20 107.0 108 59 15 44 87
Rheinecker* 6 9 5.01 24 24 151.0 161 84 24 49 90
Fahrner 3 5 5.04 50 0 75.0 75 42 9 36 55
Ramos* 5 7 5.15 37 16 117.0 120 67 20 47 85
Yabu 3 5 5.16 40 0 61.0 64 35 9 24 40
Roney 6 8 5.37 38 14 119.0 132 71 22 40 78
Nannini 6 9 5.44 31 20 134.0 144 81 27 47 88
Bondurant* 7 12 5.59 25 25 148.0 168 92 26 54 85
Sullivan 3 9 6.35 27 19 136.0 169 96 26 54 52
Smyth* 2 6 6.87 23 16 93.0 102 71 17 70 59
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 07, 2005 at 10:03 PM | 37 comment(s)
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1. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 07, 2005 at 10:27 PM (#1766193)Not a criticism of ZiPS, but I think Roney could be a nice addition to the A's pen - he's long had a reliever's repetoire, last season showed what he can do in that role.
My projection system has a bigger spread than that, but even if I'm right and ZIPS is wrong (which I'm not claiming) its no more than 10 runs.
Zito projected as the 5th best starter, huh?
The bullpen looks very deep. Mabeus deserves a chance with someone, but he probably won't get it with the A's. Kohn's got great stats in the minors, but he's been killed against good competition (AAA and AFL).
I might take that action. There's a reasonable chance that if Zito's dealt, it'll be to a bad park.
It's still punishing him for 2004. Barring injury, he'll beat that projection.
That projection for Durazo seems awfully rosy even if you don't know that he was terribly injured last season (as ZiPS presumably doesn't.)
Mr. Beane, take note.
And here's hoping for more than 158 innings out of Harden.
Dotel filed for free agency, said he'd be fully recovered by the start of the season.
Projecting the Hawaiian Punchout is like writing a Mad Lib: he'll look great until his <u> (noun)</u> falls off.
The current staff right now would likely be:
Zito, Harden, Loaiza, Haren, Blanton
Street, Duchscherer, Calero, Witasick, Kennedy, Saarloos, Cruz
That leaves Flores, Mabeus, Roney, and Kohn in Sacto.
Like how it projected Z for 3.67 with 188 hits and 182 K's in 218 IP in 2004...actual performance: 4.48, 216 H, 163 K's, 213 IP. Even if you argue that 2004 was affected by injuries he pitched through, I'd think that if such systems underrate him, he would've overperformed that in the following age 27 "healthy" season. He did outperform ZiPS last year, but that's probably more due to 2004 being an outlier for Z than any problems projected pitchers like him.
This team really needs another big RH bat. Their reported pursuit of Piazza/Big Hurt makes a lot of sense.
Like how it projected Z for 3.67 with 188 hits and 182 K's in 218 IP in 2004...actual performance: 4.48, 216 H, 163 K's, 213 IP. Even if you argue that 2004 was affected by injuries he pitched through, I'd think that if such systems underrate him, he would've overperformed that in the following age 27 "healthy" season. He did outperform ZiPS last year, but that's probably more due to 2004 being an outlier for Z than any problems projected pitchers like him.
His DIPS ERA was 4.53 in 2004. Here are some others:
Year ERA DIPS
2000 2.72 4.00
2001 3.49 3.63
2002 2.75 4.01
Thanks for playing, though.
DIPS = 4.28
ERA = 3.30
And so Ron Flores cries himself to sleep tonight.
Flores* 5 3 4.15 58 0 65.0 58 30 8 25 61
Rincon* 2 2 4.91 66 0 44.0 41 24 5 25 34
Billy I know you're allowed to spend a little more money now but that doesn't mean you suddenly have to make us the Orioles.
*pitiful whine*
Ah, but which season?
I understand the concept at base but have no dea how the number is generated.
This team is one healthy Frank Thomas away from looking like a winner. [knocks on wood]
Not giving up home runs gives you a lot of leeway to be mediocre in other areas. In some way, it establishes a higher lower bound to your value (in the same way that not striking out a lot of guys establishes a lower higher bound). Saarloos is basically looking like Bob Walk, which gives him a chance at a pretty decent career.
That's...intriguing. It seems the A's would be increasing their 2006 payroll by about $3.5M and their 2007 payroll by about $9M. They'd have to move Payton if they're going to sign Thomas. The dropoff from Zito to Saarloos would be much smaller than the improvement from Payton to Abreu. I would guess Lieberthal and Kendall project similarly enough. I'm not a big fan of Floyd, who doesn't seem better than Gaudin aside from the pedigree. I dunno.
Good news. For now.
Pretty impressive, without looking at the context.
Year ERA DIPS
2000 2.72 4.00
2001 3.49 3.63
2002 2.75 4.01
Thanks for playing, though.
The problem here is that you're reading too much into what DIPS does. The I stands for independent - we have pretty good indicators that the A's defense has been excellent, and you'd expect DIPS, even if it was a perfect measure of defense-independent performance (which it isn't) to miss high for pitchers on good defensive teams.
Because Zito is a high-BIP pitcher, he also relies more on his defense than a high-K pitcher. This means that a good defensive team will help him more than it'd help a Pedro Martinez, for example. Zito (or Lowe, or Hudson) are very good pitchers for teams that have invested heavily in defense and likely disasters for those who have foresaken defense for hitting.
This is much more true of Saarloos than Zito. Zito actually has an above average K-rate given his park/league. Saarloos, on the other hand, has low HR and BB rates and a very low K-rate--which means a ton of BIP. The situation in Oakland--a park that suppresses rBIP and in front of a good defense--is near ideal for him.
Because he was really good before he got hurt
FREE MATT WATSON!!
I know he's 27 and doesn't have much room to grow, but he's probably one of those classic "replacement level" guys that should prevent teams from running people like... Scott Hatteberg out on a day to day basis.
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