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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, December 12, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia Phillies


Name           P   AVG   OBP   SPC   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Abreu*        rf .290 .415 .483 161 586 99 170 42 1 23 93 124 134 27 10
Howard*        1b .281 .357 .531 152 533 81 150 29 1 34 98 60 190 1 1
Utley*        2b .281 .365 .510 146 533 84 150 36 4 26 91 65 103 12 4
Burrell         lf .268 .379 .480 150 552 72 148 28 1 29 95 99 160 0 0
Michaels       cf .295 .393 .418 107 275 43 81 14 1 6 33 43 59 2 3
Rowand         cf .288 .346 .442 151 525 80 151 33 3 14 72 33 100 14 5
Rollins#        ss .281 .342 .427 162 701 110 197 42 9 14 79 65 87 33 10
Lieberthal       c   .262 .332 .410 124 439 46 115 26 0 13 56 37 55 0 1
Victorino       lf .273 .332 .400 130 495 83 135 17 5 12 58 41 85 13 11
Lofton*        cf .278 .333 .368 112 378 54 105 15 5 3 36 30 48 15 5
Coste         c   .263 .315 .400 114 415 50 109 22 1 11 52 26 73 2 2
Castellano       lf .265 .317 .393 117 407 48 108 23 1 9 48 29 62 3 2
Kata#          2b .274 .316 .392 113 413 53 113 23 4 6 42 25 66 3 3
Chavez*        cf .282 .332 .373 143 490 62 138 20 5 5 46 37 48 20 10
Nunez#        3b .279 .337 .357 131 359 50 100 12 2 4 36 32 57 1 2
Bell           3b .248 .319 .375 143 525 52 130 29 1 12 61 52 74 0 1
Rushford*      lf .263 .320 .372 125 449 52 118 26 1 7 50 36 52 2 2
Sandoval       ss .279 .335 .376 125 481 61 134 27 1 6 48 39 65 13 14
Bourn*        cf .254 .324 .339 129 492 79 125 15 6 5 44 50 124 32 9
Tucker*        rf .231 .318 .360 127 372 47 86 18 3 8 43 47 83 5 5
Roberson       cf .260 .315 .369 130 485 70 126 18 4 9 49 32 114 22 14
Ruiz           c   .249 .297 .386 99 337 39 84 17 4 7 36 21 44 4 4
Martinez       2b .251 .314 .338 87 219 19 55 11 1 2 21 19 34 1 0
Budzinski*      rf .249 .314 .349 127 461 64 115 24 5 4 41 41 116 7 7
Fasano         c   .217 .265 .411 75 207 23 45 7 0 11 34 10 49 0 0
Padilla         rf .246 .318 .327 98 349 45 86 13 0 5 32 34 75 9 8
Perez#        3b .236 .291 .351 100 208 23 49 13 1 3 22 16 43 0 1
Hinch         c   .233 .298 .326 83 258 23 60 13 1 3 26 19 53 0 1
Hannahan       2b .229 .312 .291 95 292 35 67 11 2 1 21 30 77 6 4
Richardson       3b .216 .270 .358 106 352 38 76 12 1 12 39 23 106 0 3

Name           W   L   ERA   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Flash           8   3   3.26 77   0   80.0   60   29   6   32   83
Madson           7   4   3.64 69   0   84.0   75   34   9   22   74
Geary           4   3   3.81 51   1   78.0   73   33   7   24   61
Fultz*          3   2   3.88 61   0   65.0   57   28   7   24   49
Santana         5   4   4.04 44   0   49.0   40   22   5   23   53
Cormier*        5   3   4.04 69   0   69.0   64   31   7   23   47
Lieber         14 13   4.17 32 32   205.0 213   95 29   35 133
Lopez           4   4   4.20 58   0   75.0   68   35 12   23   74
Myers           12 10   4.21 33 33   201.0 188   94 27   65 178
Firebug         5   5   4.25 73   0   72.0   55   34 10   38   85
Telemaco         5   4   4.30 31 18   134.0 133   64 22   29   94
Lidle           13 12   4.36 32 32   198.0 205   96 22   54 120
Wolf*          8   8   4.53 23 23   143.0 139   72 20   49 114
Hernandez         5   6   4.83 47   1   69.0   68   37   8   32   58
Franco           4   5   4.83 42   8   95.0 101   51 11   35   57
Moreno           4   5   4.84 20 12   80.0   82   43 11   28   49
Tejeda           6   8   4.85 29 21   128.0 118   69 15   69 111
Hamels*          1   2   5.00   6   6   27.0   25   15   3   17   24
Floyd           7 11   5.22 31 28   169.0 175   98 20   83 113
Condrey         5 10   5.27 25 24   135.0 157   79 24   33   65
Sanches         3   4   5.29 47   2   80.0   84   47 16   28   63
Hodge           3   6   5.40 45   0   70.0   75   42 15   22   53
Haigwood*        6 10   5.41 24 24   133.0 134   80 18   73 107
Burke*          3   5   5.43 56   0   68.0   65   41   8   43   58
Ellis           5   9   5.52 25 21   137.0 157   84 26   42   69
Cameron         4   7   5.63 45   7   96.0   95   60 17   52   80
Brito*          4   8   5.73 37 16   110.0 117   70 20   53   79
Lee             3   6   5.80 27 15   104.0 114   67 22   42   74
Bacsik*          4 11   5.83 31 23   142.0 167   92 31   42   80
Mathieson         3 10   6.11 24 24   131.0 156   89 28   49   76
Butto           3 10   6.42 45   6   101.0 119   72 24   41   67
Bucktrot         2   8   6.94 16 16   83.0 102   64 21   39   41
Segovia         3 15   6.98 27 27   147.0 196 114 37   52   50

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 12, 2005 at 09:36 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Math Attack Posted: December 12, 2005 at 10:06 PM (#1774079)
190 Strikeouts! That's more than any of the pitchers!
   2. Rob Base Posted: December 12, 2005 at 10:08 PM (#1774084)
Good lineup. If they had anybody to throw the ball, they'd be set.
   3. Repoz Posted: December 12, 2005 at 10:17 PM (#1774102)
Four guys just fall short of 100 ribbys...team stink!
   4. Boomer Posted: December 12, 2005 at 10:27 PM (#1774126)
190 Strikeouts! That's more than any of the pitchers!

Yes, but the pitchers won't have nearly as many at bats as Mr. Howard will.
   5. Steve G. Posted: December 12, 2005 at 10:30 PM (#1774138)
Interesting that ZiPS is so low on Brett Myers. I know he tailed off a bit in the second half, but he also struck out almost a guy an inning and had around a 3:1 K/BB ratio. I guess it's banking on regression to the mean?
   6. alkeiper Posted: December 12, 2005 at 10:54 PM (#1774194)
Since you ran a projection on Haigwood, is it possible to get one for Gio Gonzalez?
   7. alkeiper Posted: December 12, 2005 at 10:55 PM (#1774196)
Firebug 5 5 4.25 73 0 72.0 55 34 10 38 85

Cute.
   8. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 12, 2005 at 11:12 PM (#1774224)
Dan, was Padilla projected better or worse in Philly than in Texas? Just curious.
   9. Elton Posted: December 12, 2005 at 11:20 PM (#1774240)
I was hoping for a little better projection for Myers too, but 4.21 isn't awful.
Last year he had 31 HR, 69 BB and 208 Ks in 215.3 innings.
Zips predicts about the same peripherals, but with a bit lower K rate.
To me, Myers' worst case seems that he'll be about average, and he could be considerably better if he improves his control while maintaining last year's K rate.

I was hoping (as a Myers fantasy owner) that Rowand's arrival would mean improved results for Philly pitching, but (at least according to BPro's defensive numbers), both Lofton and Michaels played well there in '05.
   10. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: December 12, 2005 at 11:25 PM (#1774252)
I know he tailed off a bit in the second half, but he also struck out almost a guy an inning and had around a 3:1 K/BB ratio.

Zips has him putting up essentially the same peripherals. Most of that "getting worse" appears to be his ERA lining up with his other numbers.
   11. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: December 12, 2005 at 11:36 PM (#1774272)
Firebug? I'm unfamiliar with the Phillies' roster. Who is it?
   12. alkeiper Posted: December 13, 2005 at 01:15 AM (#1774482)
Ugueth Urbina
   13. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: December 13, 2005 at 01:36 AM (#1774516)
Ah. for some reason I thought he was a FA again.

So, if he goes to prison for that Venezuelan mess does that let the Phillies out?
   14. DCW3 Posted: December 13, 2005 at 01:41 AM (#1774522)
Ah. for some reason I thought he was a FA again.

I think he is a free agent, but Dan just puts free agents' projections under the team they were last with.

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