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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, December 17, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres


Name           P   AVG   OBP   SPC   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Giles*        lf .273 .394 .455 152 538 76 147 32 6 18 84 106 70 9 5
Bozied         1b .265 .329 .447 70 264 36 70 13 1 11 41 23 46 1 0
Klesko*        lf .249 .354 .414 134 437 58 109 22 1 16 63 72 83 2 3
Greene         ss .263 .323 .437 130 476 56 125 31 2 16 71 37 99 4 2
Randa         3b .264 .323 .414 144 534 64 141 37 2 13 65 44 80 0 1
Cameron         cf .231 .320 .422 122 445 54 103 27 2 18 57 54 127 15 5
Cust*          lf .220 .356 .365 128 441 62 97 20 1 14 53 91 146 2 3
Johnson         rf .239 .316 .428 134 451 67 108 27 2 18 67 46 116 5 3
Barfield       2b .271 .326 .397 138 499 73 135 23 2 12 62 40 107 10 4
Roberts*        cf .263 .344 .390 115 395 57 104 16 8 6 43 48 56 22 11
Fick*          1b .256 .329 .378 114 336 34 86 18 1 7 44 36 51 1 1
Knott         rf .227 .311 .411 132 467 65 106 28 2 18 66 50 115 2 1
Mirabelli       c   .228 .315 .386 54 145 15 33 8 0 5 18 15 41 1 0
Kottaras*      c   .247 .321 .357 107 361 44 89 25 0 5 37 41 79 1 1
Scales#        2b .237 .323 .356 112 337 39 80 18 2 6 38 39 86 5 3
McAnulty*      1b .242 .313 .367 138 455 59 110 25 1 10 51 46 106 3 2
Hill#          2b .245 .337 .334 121 359 42 88 16 2 4 34 44 65 6 4
LaForest*      c   .220 .287 .413 95 327 36 72 19 1 14 42 31 116 1 2
Ross           c   .222 .291 .378 67 185 20 41 9 1 6 24 16 58 0 0
Young         2b .259 .329 .341 104 340 47 88 17 1 3 32 33 29 14 11
Guzman#        cf .248 .331 .307 123 472 75 117 16 3 2 38 56 89 49 18
Castilla       3b .230 .282 .382 141 505 50 116 31 2 14 72 33 100 2 2
Olivo         c   .231 .280 .381 97 299 37 69 14 2 9 37 17 80 8 4
Sain           1b .221 .282 .362 125 417 48 92 20 0 13 52 35 106 1 2
Smith         3b .220 .284 .353 134 481 51 106 23 1 13 54 40 134 4 2
Blum#          3b .224 .277 .357 114 353 38 79 18 1 9 35 25 50 2 2
Robinson*      lf .274 .304 .320 114 387 51 106 11 2 1 28 16 45 21 12
Duncan*        cf .220 .307 .293 117 369 38 81 12 3 3 27 44 92 13 10
Garcia         2b .214 .241 .296 92 294 25 63 10 1 4 26   9 51 6 4
Valdez         ss .214 .258 .273 103 355 33 76 12 3 1 26 20 52 14 8

Name           W   L   ERA   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Hoffman         4   2   2.95 56   0   55.0   47   18   4   11   49
Linebrink         6   3   3.16 73   0   77.0   61   27   6   24   75
Peavy           13   8   3.39 30 30   191.0 160   72 19   56 199
Otsuka           6   4   3.65 69   0   69.0   57   28   4   32   69
Hammond*        3   3   3.88 53   0   58.0   57   25   6   14   37
Seanez           4   4   3.94 57   0   64.0   52   28   6   30   79
Andrade         3   3   4.14 39   0   50.0   42   23   5   23   45
Meaux*          5   6   4.17 41   9   108.0 109   50   7   39   72
Breslow*        2   2   4.22 61   0   79.0   75   37   7   31   63
Etherton         8   8   4.24 25 25   138.0 134   65 17   41 113
Hensley         6   6   4.25 34 20   142.0 138   67 15   48   99
Eaton           9 11   4.37 29 28   169.0 169   82 20   53 131
Brocail         4   3   4.44 55   0   73.0   77   36   7   31   58
Williams         10 12   4.45 30 30   184.0 191   91 21   56 127
Stauffer         6 10   4.74 26 25   152.0 164   80 19   47   97
Cassidy         3   6   4.76 47   5   85.0   82   45 10   42   76
Wells           8 13   4.86 26 26   174.0 194   94 17   57   93
Baker           3   4   4.90 60   0   68.0   65   37   9   34   64
Baugh           7 11   4.90 26 26   147.0 156   80 17   58   94
Brazelton         6 11   4.99 27 22   128.0 127   71 12   68   90
Falkenborg       3   6   5.05 34   9   82.0   84   46 13   32   68
Park           6 11   5.08 25 24   133.0 138   75 12   67   94
McLeary         4   7   5.08 41 10   101.0 103   57 11   51   75
Thompson*        4 10   5.35 26 26   158.0 168   94 23   72 113
Deago*          2   5   5.80 23 13   90.0   92   58 10   61   65
Tucker*          1   4   5.95 52   0   65.0   62   43   7   52   58

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 17, 2005 at 02:40 AM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. 1k5v3L Posted: December 17, 2005 at 03:12 AM (#1781148)
Brad Baker is now with the Braves.

That Loretta-Mirabelli trade was awful.
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 17, 2005 at 03:16 AM (#1781159)
The Baker projection is for Atlanta, however - I just forgot to move Baker over.
   3. JPWF13 Posted: December 17, 2005 at 03:19 AM (#1781168)
That Loretta-Mirabelli trade was awful.

no it wasn't- I have Barfield as a farm hand in my NL only Roto-league- cheap labor to me
   4. FBI Posted: December 17, 2005 at 03:21 AM (#1781174)
So who is the favourite in the NL West division?
I don't see a 0.500 team in the division
   5. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 17, 2005 at 03:54 AM (#1781229)
So who is the favourite in the NL West division?

I'd say the Giants could win 85 games and the division if Bonds plays 135-140 games. If not, my money's on Dodgers, if they don't keep trading away their good outfielders.
   6. The Hop-Clop Goes On (psa1) Posted: December 17, 2005 at 06:29 AM (#1781380)
Wow, Olivo is WAY down there...a .280 OBP? He's the presumptive starter no?

If he hits like that, he might as well be consumptive.

*rimshot*
   7. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: December 17, 2005 at 06:37 AM (#1781395)
I'd expect a bit better from Andrade in the pitcher's park, in the NL. I'm imagining that's in part because he was stuck in Double-A, where he had no business being. Dominating Triple-A probably would have lead to a better ZiPs. Of course, I don't pretend to be unbiased on this matter.

BTW, Dan, can you do a Cesar Carrillo projection? He should get significant time with the club next year.
   8. MM1f Posted: December 17, 2005 at 08:04 AM (#1781503)
I tihnk Carillo would be pointless to project w a system. He only got a handful of innings, and he was coddled in those innings too
   9. Steve Threadair Posted: December 17, 2005 at 11:11 AM (#1781610)
Once in a while comes a team that I can see winning 90, and losing 90. Does it make sense?
   10. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 17, 2005 at 03:06 PM (#1781645)
I think Carrillo is unlikely to surface in the majors before August, unless he comes out and absolutely blows them away at AAA. The Padres are showing signs of taking it slowly with him - they shut him down early and didn't send him to fall or winter ball - and there have already been some concerned raised about his durability.

-- MWE
   11. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: December 17, 2005 at 04:58 PM (#1781679)
Remember that Petco is a huge pitcher's park, so the values of those players will be a littl emore than those lines.

However, Mirabelli and Camerson look low to me. I dont' see either hittin .230.

The Padres look to be as good as the Dodgers and Giants, it coudl be a real race in the NL West. It wouold be interesting too if the three teams didn't have 87 wins as their ceiling.
   12. Spivey Posted: December 17, 2005 at 06:16 PM (#1781762)
Cameron is getting older, hit .230 in 2004, and is moving to a park that suppresses BA by about 10 more points than Shea. His relative success in 2005 in a half season is the only thing keeping that projection from being any lower.
   13. Rafael Bellylard: A failure of the waist. Posted: December 18, 2005 at 04:51 PM (#1782914)
Once in a while comes a team that I can see winning 90, and losing 90. Does it make sense?

Sure. I think the Giants are like that for 2006. If Bonds is the Bonds of 3-4 years ago, the Giants could be a 90-win team. If he's a 40-something with bad wheels and diminished power, they could lose 90.
   14. BoSox Rule Posted: January 08, 2006 at 10:17 PM (#1811582)
If Bonds qualifies for the batting title, the Giants will definitely win the West, in my opinion. That is 125 runs the Giants weren't getting last year.
   15. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: January 08, 2006 at 10:27 PM (#1811596)
Etherton 8 8 4.24 25 25 138.0 134 65 17 41 113



Sure am glad we gave Esteban Loaiza 7 million a year. Yeeeeep, just tickled with satisfaction.
   16. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: January 08, 2006 at 10:31 PM (#1811601)
Also that offense up there sure is lacking in the power department. Not even one 20 homer projection.
   17. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 08, 2006 at 11:47 PM (#1811702)
Not even one 20 homer projection.

That ballpark's like a frigging airport.
   18. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: January 09, 2006 at 05:01 AM (#1812066)
I know, but I mean, you'd think at least maybe Giles or Cameron would crack 20.


Then again, even Adam Eaton looked like a quality starter there, so it's probably quite the task.
   19. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 09, 2006 at 05:07 AM (#1812073)
I know, but I mean, you'd think at least maybe Giles or Cameron would crack 20

My first thought was, ####, Giles will hit twenty no prob. But then I went and checked -- and he hit only 15 last year. Not that he wasn't a swell player last year, but crap, 15 homers? If Brian Giles can't get particularly close to 20, I doubt that anybody else on that roster can.
   20. peter21 Posted: January 09, 2006 at 07:15 AM (#1812129)
Why does ZIPS dislike Jake Peavy? In 2005, his walks went down and strikeouts went up...and his ERA went up. I know Jake got fairly lucky in 2004, but still, his 05 ERA was 2.88. He also got unlucky with regards to homers/fly ball in 2005---and his home/road splits are barely noticable, even though he pitches in San Diego.

This seems to suggest that Peavy will at least match his 2.88 ERA of 2005, and is a good bet to improve upon it.
   21. Russ Posted: January 09, 2006 at 01:40 PM (#1812219)
Why does ZIPS dislike Jake Peavy?

Depending on how Dan does it, it might be Peavy's age. Young pitchers are very mercurial.

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