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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, December 19, 2005

2006 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants


Name           P   AVG   OBP   SPC   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Bonds*        lf .308 .493 .669 116 308 75 95 16 1 31 77 108 40 3 1
Alou           lf .293 .361 .471 133 478 63 140 24 2 19 73 50 62 3 0
Sweeney*        lf .271 .375 .439 127 214 29 58 13 1 7 34 36 58 3 1
Winn#          cf .298 .353 .465 159 620 82 185 42 5 17 78 49 93 18 9
Durham#        2b .282 .353 .424 136 490 68 138 30 2 12 62 50 63 6 4
Linden#        rf .256 .342 .437 151 504 84 129 27 2 20 69 57 143 8 3
Feliz         3b .274 .303 .476 129 424 58 116 26 3 18 69 19 72 4 2
Cervenak       3b .276 .329 .420 127 474 62 131 27 1 13 68 31 64 3 1
Alfonzo         3b .280 .340 .373 124 440 46 123 21 1 6 50 39 37 2 0
Snow*          1b .261 .339 .364 115 360 42 94 20 1 5 40 37 62 1 0
Ortmeier#      rf .242 .318 .404 128 450 69 109 22 3 15 58 37 110 17 10
Niekro         1b .263 .301 .423 101 293 34 77 16 2 9 41 15 44 0 2
DeVore*        rf .253 .304 .414 112 360 49 91 20 1 12 49 26 88 4 3
Sanchez*        cf .306 .338 .373 94 346 43 106 14 3 1 31 16 50 21 13
Alfonzo         c   .245 .297 .411 109 372 51 91 17 0 15 53 16 95 3 3
Valderrama       cf .260 .315 .376 123 450 53 117 27 2 7 46 33 83 16 8
Santos*        1b .245 .305 .382 125 445 52 109 20 1 13 54 35 122 2 1
Vizquel#        ss .269 .332 .343 145 543 60 146 25 3 3 49 49 61 17 6
Lewis*        cf .242 .324 .346 132 471 70 114 23 4 6 42 56 119 18 12
Grissom         cf .255 .286 .384 110 404 42 103 17 1 11 51 18 71 3 1
Shabala*        cf .246 .303 .366 111 399 51 98 20 2 8 41 30 82 8 5
Knoedler       c   .244 .297 .364 114 390 52 95 22 2 7 38 27 93 7 3
Ellison         lf .261 .312 .349 137 436 61 114 22 2 4 38 30 55 16 9
Ishikawa*      1b .216 .294 .378 122 394 61 85 21 2 13 47 36 118 3 4
Nunez#        lf .229 .306 .365 121 414 62 95 19 2 11 54 46 95 7 7
Hansen         2b .217 .301 .352 100 341 48 74 17 1 9 38 35 95 6 3
Matheny         c   .236 .291 .366 129 423 36 100 28 0 9 50 29 85 0 1
Schierholtz*    3b .246 .282 .391 125 455 62 112 30 3 10 53 18 105 4 6
Haad           c   .228 .267 .374 80 254 25 58 14 1 7 30 12 42 1 1
Torcato*        3b .252 .285 .337 119 401 37 101 15 2 5 41 15 44 2 3
Rodriguez       c   .209 .268 .336 72 211 23 44 10 1 5 23 10 44 1 0
Chavez         ss .236 .270 .331 123 432 51 102 16 2 7 45 18 69 9 3
Athas*        ss .235 .294 .302 108 341 41 80 10 2 3 27 27 77 9 5
Lunsford       c   .225 .287 .296 81 267 22 60 11 1 2 22 21 52 2 2
Bowker*        lf .206 .241 .315 121 428 49 88 20 0 9 41 18 97 7 3
Jennings       c   .219 .248 .292 112 407 43 89 15 0 5 34 11 62 4 4
Requena#        cf .209 .268 .262 107 401 56 84 12 3 1 22 29 87 29 15

Name           W   L   ERA   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Schmidt         13   9   3.58 30 30   196.0 163   78 16   75 199
Taschner*        3   2   3.60 68   0   70.0   53   28   4   37   74
Accardo         4   4   3.68 61   0   71.0   68   29   4   20   50
Benitez         3   2   4.03 55   0   58.0   48   26   6   26   52
Worrell         3   4   4.10 67   0   68.0   68   31   7   20   52
Lowry*          10 11   4.16 33 31   186.0 175   86 19   69 155
Morris         11 12   4.31 31 31   190.0 199   91 24   43 122
Fassero*        4   6   4.41 48   8   96.0 102   47   8   38   53
Cain           7 10   4.65 31 31   178.0 159   92 25   84 168
Coutlangus*      2   2   4.67 50   0   79.0   80   41 10   27   53
Tomko           8 13   4.71 33 31   195.0 211 102 23   60 109
Kline*          2   4   4.81 69   0   58.0   56   31   7   28   34
Walker           4   5   4.82 64   0   71.0   72   38   9   27   57
Munter           3   4   4.85 56   0   65.0   72   35   5   25   21
Villafuerte       3   5   4.86 57   0   74.0   76   40   7   34   51
Puffer           4   6   4.95 58   0   80.0   87   44   9   31   43
Hennessey         6 12   5.11 30 30   169.0 184   96 20   69   91
Valdez           3   7   5.13 23 18   107.0 113   61 14   45   72
Kinney           6 12   5.22 32 23   157.0 168   91 23   65 121
Correia         4   9   5.26 38 16   113.0 115   66 17   55   83
Misch*          6 11   5.28 27 27   167.0 192   98 29   46   97
Cooper           5 12   5.32 32 22   149.0 167   88 24   51   77
Levine           2   4   5.34 50   0   59.0   66   35   8   25   26
Burres*          4 10   5.67 30 21   135.0 155   85 24   50   84
Miller           3   8   5.68 56   0   76.0   81   48 16   31   59
Simon           4 11   5.70 35 18   139.0 166   88 25   43   70
Fikac           3   9   5.79 50   4   87.0   96   56 18   35   64
Threets*        1   2   6.32 30   0   47.0   51   33   5   36   27

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2005 at 04:19 AM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. cram chowder Posted: December 19, 2005 at 04:44 AM (#1783756)
I'm surprised to see Lowry with such a high ERA
   2. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 19, 2005 at 05:00 AM (#1783774)
I'm surprised to see Alex Requena at all.
   3. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 19, 2005 at 05:24 AM (#1783807)
I'm not surprised by Lowry--that's pretty good. I'm a little surprised by Cain, and also by Niekro being less terrible than I'd have thought, now that I think about it.
Now I can do NL West ZIPS-PT, which I'll post later this overnight.
   4. Runscreated Posted: December 19, 2005 at 05:49 AM (#1783831)
So the Giants have 4 or 5 guys who can hit, but may not be able to play everyday. Then ZIPS only has Schmidt with an ERA under 4. This is a year you hope the team starts off fast, because it will be hard for this aging ship to catch up if a few calamities strike hard.
   5. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: December 19, 2005 at 06:56 AM (#1783872)
Matheny c .236 .291 .366 129 423 36 100 28 0 9 50 29 85 0 1




yuck.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: December 19, 2005 at 07:13 AM (#1783888)
So who here knew that Randy Winn slugged 680 with the Giants last year?

Anyway, that Winn projection looks a little high to me.
   7. DCW3 Posted: December 19, 2005 at 07:21 AM (#1783895)
Anyway, that Winn projection looks a little high to me.

You know how I love to trot these things out--Mojo has him at .298/.354/.457. Pretty darn close to ZiPS.

Winn had one heck of a run with the Giants last year. He was 10th in the NL in RCAP, despite playing only 58 games.
   8. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 19, 2005 at 08:22 AM (#1783925)
Random thoughts...

If the Giants are going to win the NL West, they'll need more than 420 PA from Bonds.

His marvelous second half notwithstanding, no way Winn does .350/.460 over the course of a full season in PacBell.

I'll be surprised if Morris does that well given the mediocrity of the Giants' defense.

The Giants need Hennessy to do better than a 5.11 ERA (that translates to like an 82 ERA+ in PacBell), even as the #5. It doesn't have to necessarily be Hennessy (Correia, Valdez, etc), but someone outside of their presumptive top four (Schmidt, Morris, Cain, Lowry) needs to step up with a near league-average 150-180 innings given the weaknesses in their offense.

Sweeney's rate stats won't look nearly as good if he gets the 300+ PA that I'd expect him to get.
   9. Thrakkus Rex Posted: December 19, 2005 at 10:45 AM (#1783967)
No Jeremy Accardo projection?
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2005 at 12:43 PM (#1783991)
No Jeremy Accardo projection?

Oops, I'll fix that.
   11. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 19, 2005 at 02:59 PM (#1784034)
I guess that the Hansen at 2b = Jed Hansen. If so, who'd thunk he was still around? Still, he represents the future to the Giants.
   12. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 19, 2005 at 03:49 PM (#1784093)
Wow, I'm not lovin' that roster.
   13. Eddie Gaedel Posted: December 19, 2005 at 11:43 PM (#1785321)
Only one guy with 20 HR, and he's only projected for 400 plate appearances.

I wonder if Sabean realizes that he'd be unemployed had Bonds not re-signed with his godfather's team?
   14. danielj Posted: December 20, 2005 at 12:59 AM (#1785439)
I'm not sure the Giants have the offensive depth to recover from such a massive dropoff in Bonds' rate stats. If the guy can't even crack a .500 OBP or a .700 SLG., this team is sunk!
   15. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: December 20, 2005 at 01:25 AM (#1785482)
At least Taschner's projection makes me feel better about Kline's... yech.

No projection for Kevin Frandsen? The Giants seem pretty high on him for some reason. He is 10 years younger than Jed Hansen, which with the Giants is probably an argument against him.
   16. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 20, 2005 at 06:35 AM (#1785868)
I have Frandsen projected at a pretty nice 283/336/392. Jed Hansen keeps getting projected because my policy is once I start projecting a player, to generally keep projecting him in the future until he's out of baseball.

Jed Hansen is one of those players you point out when people wonder how the Royals got this way - he was a high draft pick and hits 309/394/426 in his cup of coffee at age 24. He doesn't get 100 more plate appearances the rest of his career as the Royals decide they rather play Luis Rivera and Shane Halter.

By the time he could choose his organization, he was having hand and wrist problems and that was the end of his chances. Having his best season in a long time in 2004, putting up a near-.900 OPS (though PCL), the Royals didn't even give him a token at-bat in September and even call up Damian Jackson for playing time instead of him.

I'd be truly upset if MLB ever instituted a revenue system that would allow the Royals, as presently run, to compete.
   17. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 20, 2005 at 07:48 PM (#1786628)
Dan, memory is a faulty thing. In 1998, after Hansen's tasty cup of coffee in 1997, the Royals played the incumbent Jose Offerman at 2B to the tune of 116 OPS+ (96 OPS+ in '97). In 1999, they played the lesser of "Dos Carlos" duo, Senor Febles and his 89 OPS+ at 2B. Febles was prize #2 of the system behind Beltran. He deserved the shot, showed promise throughout the year and was a defensible choice. He was fast, gap-powered, good OBP potential and was supposed to be a great defender. They forgot to mention more fragile than J D Drew, but no one knew that yet.

Hansen was caught in a numbers game and was released from KC after the '99 season.
It's hard to believe that the Boone-Muser era Royals couldn't use a player, but Hansen was in the wrong place at the wrong time. From a personal standpoint for Hansen, he never got a break but he never really kicked butt so badly that he couldn't be ignored, either.
   18. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: December 20, 2005 at 08:46 PM (#1786721)
Thanks for the Frandsen projection, Dan. He is only a couple inevitable injuries from the bigs now!

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