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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, January 06, 2006

2006 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay Devil Rays


Name           P   AVG   OBP   SPC   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Gomes         rf .267 .365 .517 140 480 86 128 25 4 29 88 61 159 11 5
Crawford*      lf .304 .338 .460 156 644 107 196 30 14 14 88 32 83 61 10
Huff*          rf .281 .345 .466 156 597 80 168 31 2 25 100 56 85 6 5
Cantu         2b .286 .316 .504 145 560 75 160 42 1 26 102 21 83 2 1
Lee*          1b .274 .344 .432 136 463 55 127 27 2 14 62 50 83 5 3
Baldelli       cf .293 .337 .437 150 622 96 182 26 5 18 87 36 114 21 8
Upton         ss .275 .354 .422 140 516 88 142 26 4 14 65 61 126 30 13
Lugo           ss .285 .353 .396 153 586 82 167 34 5 7 66 59 85 28 8
Phelps         dh .249 .317 .467 112 398 54 99 23 2 20 66 32 111 0 1
Burroughs*      3b .290 .352 .377 119 424 61 123 16 3 5 51 34 53 5 2
Bankston       1b .244 .319 .425 111 381 55 93 19 1 16 57 38 89 4 2
Young         rf .271 .314 .434 135 509 77 138 20 3 19 75 26 106 20 9
Hollins         lf .256 .313 .414 130 406 50 104 23 1 13 58 32 79 7 3
Deardorff       3b .244 .316 .410 109 385 53 94 15 2 15 52 40 107 5 4
Green         2b .253 .326 .378 114 344 51 87 18 2 7 39 31 84 3 2
Riggans         c   .260 .317 .381 81 265 37 69 17 0 5 33 19 58 1 1
Dukes#        cf .247 .313 .394 114 396 61 98 18 2 12 51 34 85 16 9
Gathright*      cf .283 .342 .343 125 417 70 118 14 4 1 34 34 89 39 17
Hall           c   .273 .310 .363 130 433 33 118 21 0 6 49 20 41 0 1
Gonzalez       3b .241 .301 .379 116 390 45 94 22 1 10 48 32 93 2 2
Cash           c   .220 .291 .385 85 291 34 64 19 1 9 36 27 82 1 1
Cortez*        2b .249 .297 .316 113 437 57 109 17 3 2 38 26 80 19 5
Mottola         rf .219 .266 .355 120 448 51 98 20 1 13 53 26 102 2 1
Hoover         c   .219 .283 .312 79 247 27 54 15 1 2 22 19 66 3 2
Ordaz         2b .237 .273 .321 76 262 26 62 15 2 1 23 12 37 2 2
Paul           c   .216 .267 .301 64 153 15 33 4 0 3 15 11 35 1 2
Johnson#        2b .212 .264 .294 122 462 62 98 15 4 5 36 28 108 30 12

Name           W   L   ERA   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Kazmir*        10   7   3.87 30 30   172.0 151   74 12   73 184
Orvella         3   2   3.89 50   0   74.0   67   32   9   23   74
Baez           5   4   3.93 67   0   71.0   66   31   7   28   55
Nunez           5   4   4.18 44   0   56.0   43   26   3   39   69
Miller*          1   2   4.50 65   0   48.0   46   24   4   25   39
Carter           3   3   4.57 50   0   69.0   74   35 11   19   34
Colome           3   4   4.71 47   0   63.0   61   33   7   32   50
Corcoran         3   3   4.83 37   1   69.0   67   37   7   35   53
Harper           5   5   4.84 54   0   80.0   83   43 11   26   52
Hines           3   3   4.94 48   0   71.0   75   39   6   34   45
Carnes           3   4   5.02 33 11   95.0 105   53 14   31   59
Fossum*          8 11   5.09 34 27   152.0 158   86 22   60 123
Hammel           7 10   5.12 25 25   153.0 166   87 24   53 111
Sweeney         7   9   5.14 31 25   161.0 183   92 26   39   99
Harville         2   3   5.19 57   0   59.0   58   34   8   32   49
Hendrickson*      9 12   5.21 31 31   178.0 211 103 23   47   85
Stokes           5   7   5.22 18 18   100.0 110   58 16   34   66
Burnside*        4   5   5.26 34   7   65.0   69   38 10   30   47
Switzer*        4   6   5.37 26 18   109.0 122   65 16   42   69
Bell           6 10   5.43 31 21   136.0 154   82 23   47   75
Gardner         3   5   5.43 55   0   63.0   72   38 12   19   40
Waechter         7 11   5.55 29 27   154.0 173   95 30   47   96
McClung         6 11   5.58 35 17   108.0 104   67 17   55   97
Magrane         5   9   5.63 31 19   139.0 164   87 22   52   66
Garcia           1   3   5.79   7   6   28.0   34   18   4   10   14
Seddon*          7 13   5.94 27 27   144.0 161   95 25   69 100
Beimel*          1   3   6.35 57   0   68.0   80   48 15   31   44
Haynes           3   7   6.39 14 13   69.0   84   49 10   39   34
Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:12 AM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. JPWF13 Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:25 AM (#1808449)
So Zips has TB having a decent offense (execrable pitching)...
sounds reasonable
   2. MM1f Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:41 AM (#1808463)
The meltdowns and injuries of Weachter and Switzer have really hurt
   3. MM1f Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:45 AM (#1808469)
And yes its bad if Shawn Riggans is your best catcher. No, i dont really think hed be better than Hall or maybe even Cash on O if he was thrown in the bigs as starter next year but still...its not a good sign seeing him so high up there.
That being said I love the rest of their offensive prospects
   4. Bromadrosis Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:50 AM (#1808472)
I think Crawford out does that projection, at least in the slugging sense. I was looking forward to finally seeing the TB projections, but now that they're there... not much to say.

Gathright caught-stealing 17 times?
   5. MM1f Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:53 AM (#1808474)
Oh and i wished they hadn't rushed McClung like they have. I doubt he'll ever get it together as a starter now

And a note about the Bell projection, he had (and is probably still having) panic attacks last year when he took the mound, hence an ERA of 8 in AAA. Its sad really.
   6. MM1f Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:56 AM (#1808477)
"Gathright caught-stealing 17 times? "

Hes not a super-smart baserunner. Not a bad one either but he can go crazy and think hes unstoppable. The stolen base rate up there sounds about right, esp when you consider how focused pitchers and catchers will be about slowing him down when hes on base
   7. 1k5v3L Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:56 AM (#1808478)
What's Aaron Heilman's projection in Tampa?
   8. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: January 06, 2006 at 01:00 AM (#1808481)
The whole Gathright line seems out of sorts. I will be surprised if he posts that OBP or SLG with a .280 BA. His minor league numbers do not support that projection, in my opinion.
   9. Jim Wisinski Posted: January 06, 2006 at 01:00 AM (#1808482)
ZiPS appears to be pretty close to my general expectations. A few things I think will be different than projected:

Gomes will crack 30 HRs with that much playing time
Crawford will hit at least four more home runs than that
Baldelli's IsoP will be over .160
Cantu's OBP will be around .325
Upton's OBP and SLG will be a little higher
Fossum will do better than that
Orvella and Kazmir will have ERAs under 3.50
Nunez won't even sniff that projection if he ends up in the majors, he's far too erratic

The projections for Bankston and Hammel seem right on to me if they were to play the entire season in the majors instead of starting at Durham then being promoted later in the season.
   10. John Reynard Posted: January 06, 2006 at 01:07 AM (#1808487)
McClung will be a little better than his projection as he's still coming back from TJ surgery. Waechter on the other hand is likely to do worse because he doesn't have Pinella's blind faith in him keeping him in the rotation anymore.
   11. The Original SJ Posted: January 06, 2006 at 01:20 AM (#1808500)
Are they committed to Upton at SS?
   12. buddy34 Posted: January 06, 2006 at 02:23 AM (#1808565)
i don't think upton opens the season in st. pete. his bat is definitely ready, though.
   13. A Day In the Park Posted: January 06, 2006 at 02:24 AM (#1808568)
I actually had to look at those pitchers twice. I can't believe how bad they are projected to pitch.

OUCH!
   14. The Original SJ Posted: January 06, 2006 at 02:26 AM (#1808571)
i don't think upton opens the season in st. pete. his bat is definitely ready, though.

I really think he was wasted in AAA last year. Take the lumps with him at SS defensively, how much is that really going to hurt the DRays?
   15. Passed Ball Posted: January 06, 2006 at 03:29 AM (#1808641)
Upton at SS may actually lower the pitcher ERA's.
   16. Dan Lee prefers good shortstops to great paintings Posted: January 06, 2006 at 04:11 AM (#1808692)
Please tell me that's not Jimmy Haynes.

I'm not sure Gibby Haynes would do a whole lot worse than that ZiPS line.
   17. Bromadrosis Posted: January 06, 2006 at 04:35 AM (#1808708)
Orvella and Kazmir will have ERAs under 3.50

I don't know. I'd buy Orvella because, well, he's a reliever (and going to be a good/great one), but I think Kazmir's projection is fairly generous. I know how well he pitched down the stretch, but I guess it's the pessimist in me.

Fossum will do better than that

Aye.

Hes not a super-smart baserunner. Not a bad one either but he can go crazy and think hes unstoppable. The stolen base rate up there sounds about right, esp when you consider how focused pitchers and catchers will be about slowing him down when hes on base

He's really only had one season of sub-par baserunning. Everything else has been good-great. I know its a small thing to nit-pick, but 17 is quite a bit for only 39 steals. Someone mentioned it above, but the Gathright projection as a whole seems a bit out-of-sorts.
   18. Bromadrosis Posted: January 06, 2006 at 04:37 AM (#1808711)
I really think he was wasted in AAA last year. Take the lumps with him at SS defensively, how much is that really going to hurt the DRays?

Until Lugo is gone it's difficult to find a place for him. And yes, his defense is that bad.
   19. Azteca Posted: January 06, 2006 at 04:56 AM (#1808723)
Was no one else shocked by the Delmon Young line? .271/.314/.434: bleech. And 26/106 k/bb ratio. Wow!
   20. MM1f Posted: January 06, 2006 at 05:32 AM (#1808756)
"Was no one else shocked by the Delmon Young line? .271/.314/.434: bleech"

For a 20 (21?) year old rookie? I say...Sweet! though i could see the slg up a little.
   21. Shock Posted: January 06, 2006 at 05:39 AM (#1808766)
Man...that is a lot of pitchers with an ERA over 5.

I think Crawford is going to slug over .500 this year.
   22. Rafael Bellylard: A failure of the waist. Posted: January 06, 2006 at 05:59 AM (#1808778)
You've got to wonder if replacement-level pitching for the whole staff wouldn't be an improvement.

I wonder if the Rays could work a Gathwright for Arroyo trade? A rotation of Kazmir, Arroyo, Fossum, Hendrickson and Waecther would be bad, but certainly a possiblity of finally moving ahead of the O's for 4th place.
   23. Tschingsch Posted: January 06, 2006 at 08:11 AM (#1808869)
OK, so the pitchers are sorted by ERA.

What are the batters sorted by?
   24. JPWF13 Posted: January 06, 2006 at 01:27 PM (#1808952)
but the Gathright projection as a whole seems a bit out-of-sorts.

Everyone keeps saying that....
So I decided to do a completely unscientific study with a way too small sample size-
Similar type player- similar laying environment- how does Gathright stack up against the immortal Jason Tyner?

Tyner: 605 games AA/AAA: .305/.368/.358
result in mlb: .261/.299/.305

Gathright AA/AAA: .328/.391/.391
Gathright "projection": .281/.318/.333
[Gathright actual so far]:.271/.316/.322
   25. Bromadrosis Posted: January 06, 2006 at 01:38 PM (#1808956)
I mean, if he can go .281/.342 + his (seemingly?) good defense, I think the Rays would be foolish to trade him for a B-level pitching prospect.

(That Olsen thing was so not real.)
   26. Russ Posted: January 06, 2006 at 01:42 PM (#1808958)
OK, so the pitchers are sorted by ERA.

Either OPS or RC, can't remember.
   27. The Wilpons Must Go (Tom D) Posted: January 06, 2006 at 02:04 PM (#1808969)
I have Upton in my roto league. Will he play this year or will they wait until he is "ready" (as in Randy Ready)?
   28. Craig in MN Posted: January 06, 2006 at 02:28 PM (#1808983)
It's not sorted by OPS. It looks to me like it is Total Bases + BB, which would be a pretty decent way to sort overall offensive input. Of course, I'm always puzzled when when one stat is valuable enough to sort by, but not important enough to include in the table.

How are the DRays in regards to their salary limits? It looks to me like they might have the second cheapest team in baseball (though the most expensive one in Florida). It seems like if they were willing to spend a couple bucks to pick up even a decent pitcher or two, that would go a long way to improving that team. Even if they traded Lugo for league average-ish starter or a couple relievers, they'd be in better shape. With new ownership, I guess I would have expected them to bring in a player or two, for appearances if nothing else. Of course a "win now" philosophy is probably wasted in the current circumstances, but throwing that pitching staff out there is a waste too.
   29. Azteca Posted: January 06, 2006 at 05:18 PM (#1809144)
For a 20 (21?) year old rookie? I say...Sweet! though i could see the slg up a little.


Well, Nate Silver's Pecota had Delmon's weighted mean at .257/.318/.411 coming into 2005. I guess .271/.314/.434 is a bit of a bump from that. Maybe that mediocre stint in the IL hurt his value...
   30. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 06, 2006 at 05:28 PM (#1809160)
A few thoughts:
* Gathright's projection looks pretty good to me - he's looked more patient over time.
* So does Young's, though I'd certainly not be surprised if he had massive gains this year. Tremedous raw gifts, but he needs more discipline at the plate (granted - I've mainly watched his AAA stint, not his AA work).
* I thought the list was sorted by RC/27, though that's just a guess.
* I don't think anyone knows what Upton will do this year.
* Orvella gets a little too much love for my taste. Yeah, he's been great and has solid stuff, but I think predicting sub-3.50 eras is premature.
   31. 101Wins Posted: January 07, 2006 at 12:28 AM (#1809831)
I realize that Gathright for Olson is too much coming back to the Rays, but what exactly is the market for Gathright? Every team knows that TB doesnt have room for him, correct? Arroyo seems pretty fair...who else?

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