BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2006 ZiPS Projections

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Friday, January 06, 2006

2006 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay Devil Rays


Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 

Gomes              rf  .267  .365  .517 140 480  86 128 25  4 29  88  61 159 11  5 

Crawford*          lf  .304  .338  .460 156 644 107 196 30 14 14  88  32  83 61 10 

Huff*              rf  .281  .345  .466 156 597  80 168 31  2 25 100  56  85  6  5 

Cantu              2b  .286  .316  .504 145 560  75 160 42  1 26 102  21  83  2  1 

Lee*               1b  .274  .344  .432 136 463  55 127 27  2 14  62  50  83  5  3 

Baldelli           cf  .293  .337  .437 150 622  96 182 26  5 18  87  36 114 21  8 

Upton              ss  .275  .354  .422 140 516  88 142 26  4 14  65  61 126 30 13 

Lugo               ss  .285  .353  .396 153 586  82 167 34  5  7  66  59  85 28  8 

Phelps             dh  .249  .317  .467 112 398  54  99 23  2 20  66  32 111  0  1 

Burroughs*         3b  .290  .352  .377 119 424  61 123 16  3  5  51  34  53  5  2 

Bankston           1b  .244  .319  .425 111 381  55  93 19  1 16  57  38  89  4  2 

Young              rf  .271  .314  .434 135 509  77 138 20  3 19  75  26 106 20  9 

Hollins            lf  .256  .313  .414 130 406  50 104 23  1 13  58  32  79  7  3 

Deardorff          3b  .244  .316  .410 109 385  53  94 15  2 15  52  40 107  5  4 

Green              2b  .253  .326  .378 114 344  51  87 18  2  7  39  31  84  3  2 

Riggans            c   .260  .317  .381  81 265  37  69 17  0  5  33  19  58  1  1 

Dukes#             cf  .247  .313  .394 114 396  61  98 18  2 12  51  34  85 16  9 

Gathright*         cf  .283  .342  .343 125 417  70 118 14  4  1  34  34  89 39 17 

Hall               c   .273  .310  .363 130 433  33 118 21  0  6  49  20  41  0  1 

Gonzalez           3b  .241  .301  .379 116 390  45  94 22  1 10  48  32  93  2  2 

Cash               c   .220  .291  .385  85 291  34  64 19  1  9  36  27  82  1  1 

Cortez*            2b  .249  .297  .316 113 437  57 109 17  3  2  38  26  80 19  5 

Mottola            rf  .219  .266  .355 120 448  51  98 20  1 13  53  26 102  2  1 

Hoover             c   .219  .283  .312  79 247  27  54 15  1  2  22  19  66  3  2 

Ordaz              2b  .237  .273  .321  76 262  26  62 15  2  1  23  12  37  2  2 

Paul               c   .216  .267  .301  64 153  15  33  4  0  3  15  11  35  1  2 

Johnson#           2b  .212  .264  .294 122 462  62  98 15  4  5  36  28 108 30 12

Name                 W   L    ERA   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 

Kazmir*             10   7   3.87  30  30   172.0  151   74  12   73  184 

Orvella              3   2   3.89  50   0    74.0   67   32   9   23   74 

Baez                 5   4   3.93  67   0    71.0   66   31   7   28   55 

Nunez                5   4   4.18  44   0    56.0   43   26   3   39   69 

Miller*              1   2   4.50  65   0    48.0   46   24   4   25   39 

Carter               3   3   4.57  50   0    69.0   74   35  11   19   34 

Colome               3   4   4.71  47   0    63.0   61   33   7   32   50 

Corcoran             3   3   4.83  37   1    69.0   67   37   7   35   53 

Harper               5   5   4.84  54   0    80.0   83   43  11   26   52 

Hines                3   3   4.94  48   0    71.0   75   39   6   34   45 

Carnes               3   4   5.02  33  11    95.0  105   53  14   31   59 

Fossum*              8  11   5.09  34  27   152.0  158   86  22   60  123 

Hammel               7  10   5.12  25  25   153.0  166   87  24   53  111 

Sweeney              7   9   5.14  31  25   161.0  183   92  26   39   99 

Harville             2   3   5.19  57   0    59.0   58   34   8   32   49 

Hendrickson*         9  12   5.21  31  31   178.0  211  103  23   47   85 

Stokes               5   7   5.22  18  18   100.0  110   58  16   34   66 

Burnside*            4   5   5.26  34   7    65.0   69   38  10   30   47 

Switzer*             4   6   5.37  26  18   109.0  122   65  16   42   69 

Bell                 6  10   5.43  31  21   136.0  154   82  23   47   75 

Gardner              3   5   5.43  55   0    63.0   72   38  12   19   40 

Waechter             7  11   5.55  29  27   154.0  173   95  30   47   96 

McClung              6  11   5.58  35  17   108.0  104   67  17   55   97 

Magrane              5   9   5.63  31  19   139.0  164   87  22   52   66 

Garcia               1   3   5.79   7   6    28.0   34   18   4   10   14 

Seddon*              7  13   5.94  27  27   144.0  161   95  25   69  100 

Beimel*              1   3   6.35  57   0    68.0   80   48  15   31   44 

Haynes               3   7   6.39  14  13    69.0   84   49  10   39   34

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:12 AM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. JPWF13

Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:25 AM (#1808449)

So Zips has TB having a decent offense (execrable pitching)...
sounds reasonable

2. MM1f Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:41 AM (#1808463)

The meltdowns and injuries of Weachter and Switzer have really hurt

3. MM1f Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:45 AM (#1808469)

And yes its bad if Shawn Riggans is your best catcher. No, i dont really think hed be better than Hall or maybe even Cash on O if he was thrown in the bigs as starter next year but still...its not a good sign seeing him so high up there.
That being said I love the rest of their offensive prospects

4. Bromadrosis Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:50 AM (#1808472)

I think Crawford out does that projection, at least in the slugging sense. I was looking forward to finally seeing the TB projections, but now that they're there... not much to say.

Gathright caught-stealing 17 times?

5. MM1f Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:53 AM (#1808474)

Oh and i wished they hadn't rushed McClung like they have. I doubt he'll ever get it together as a starter now

And a note about the Bell projection, he had (and is probably still having) panic attacks last year when he took the mound, hence an ERA of 8 in AAA. Its sad really.

6. MM1f Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:56 AM (#1808477)

"Gathright caught-stealing 17 times? "

Hes not a super-smart baserunner. Not a bad one either but he can go crazy and think hes unstoppable. The stolen base rate up there sounds about right, esp when you consider how focused pitchers and catchers will be about slowing him down when hes on base

7. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)

Posted: January 06, 2006 at 12:56 AM (#1808478)

What's Aaron Heilman's projection in Tampa?

8. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: January 06, 2006 at 01:00 AM (#1808481)

The whole Gathright line seems out of sorts. I will be surprised if he posts that OBP or SLG with a .280 BA. His minor league numbers do not support that projection, in my opinion.

9. Jim Wisinski

Posted: January 06, 2006 at 01:00 AM (#1808482)

ZiPS appears to be pretty close to my general expectations. A few things I think will be different than projected:

Gomes will crack 30 HRs with that much playing time
Crawford will hit at least four more home runs than that
Baldelli's IsoP will be over .160
Cantu's OBP will be around .325
Upton's OBP and SLG will be a little higher
Fossum will do better than that
Orvella and Kazmir will have ERAs under 3.50
Nunez won't even sniff that projection if he ends up in the majors, he's far too erratic

The projections for Bankston and Hammel seem right on to me if they were to play the entire season in the majors instead of starting at Durham then being promoted later in the season.

10. John Reynard Posted: January 06, 2006 at 01:07 AM (#1808487)

McClung will be a little better than his projection as he's still coming back from TJ surgery. Waechter on the other hand is likely to do worse because he doesn't have Pinella's blind faith in him keeping him in the rotation anymore.

11. Johnny Two Screens Posted: January 06, 2006 at 01:20 AM (#1808500)

Are they committed to Upton at SS?

12. buddy34 Posted: January 06, 2006 at 02:23 AM (#1808565)

i don't think upton opens the season in st. pete. his bat is definitely ready, though.

13. A Day In the Park Posted: January 06, 2006 at 02:24 AM (#1808568)

I actually had to look at those pitchers twice. I can't believe how bad they are projected to pitch.

OUCH!

14. Johnny Two Screens Posted: January 06, 2006 at 02:26 AM (#1808571)

i don't think upton opens the season in st. pete. his bat is definitely ready, though.

I really think he was wasted in AAA last year. Take the lumps with him at SS defensively, how much is that really going to hurt the DRays?

15. Passed Ball Posted: January 06, 2006 at 03:29 AM (#1808641)

Upton at SS may actually lower the pitcher ERA's.

16. Neutral Milk Dotel (Dan Lee) Posted: January 06, 2006 at 04:11 AM (#1808692)

Please tell me that's not Jimmy Haynes.

I'm not sure Gibby Haynes would do a whole lot worse than that ZiPS line.

17. Bromadrosis Posted: January 06, 2006 at 04:35 AM (#1808708)

Orvella and Kazmir will have ERAs under 3.50

I don't know. I'd buy Orvella because, well, he's a reliever (and going to be a good/great one), but I think Kazmir's projection is fairly generous. I know how well he pitched down the stretch, but I guess it's the pessimist in me.

Fossum will do better than that

Aye.

Hes not a super-smart baserunner. Not a bad one either but he can go crazy and think hes unstoppable. The stolen base rate up there sounds about right, esp when you consider how focused pitchers and catchers will be about slowing him down when hes on base

He's really only had one season of sub-par baserunning. Everything else has been good-great. I know its a small thing to nit-pick, but 17 is quite a bit for only 39 steals. Someone mentioned it above, but the Gathright projection as a whole seems a bit out-of-sorts.

18. Bromadrosis Posted: January 06, 2006 at 04:37 AM (#1808711)

I really think he was wasted in AAA last year. Take the lumps with him at SS defensively, how much is that really going to hurt the DRays?

Until Lugo is gone it's difficult to find a place for him. And yes, his defense is that bad.

19. Azteca Posted: January 06, 2006 at 04:56 AM (#1808723)

Was no one else shocked by the Delmon Young line? .271/.314/.434: bleech. And 26/106 k/bb ratio. Wow!

20. MM1f Posted: January 06, 2006 at 05:32 AM (#1808756)

"Was no one else shocked by the Delmon Young line? .271/.314/.434: bleech"

For a 20 (21?) year old rookie? I say...Sweet! though i could see the slg up a little.

21. Shock Posted: January 06, 2006 at 05:39 AM (#1808766)

Man...that is a lot of pitchers with an ERA over 5.

I think Crawford is going to slug over .500 this year.

22. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Fielder Posted: January 06, 2006 at 05:59 AM (#1808778)

You've got to wonder if replacement-level pitching for the whole staff wouldn't be an improvement.

I wonder if the Rays could work a Gathwright for Arroyo trade? A rotation of Kazmir, Arroyo, Fossum, Hendrickson and Waecther would be bad, but certainly a possiblity of finally moving ahead of the O's for 4th place.

23. Tschingsch Posted: January 06, 2006 at 08:11 AM (#1808869)

OK, so the pitchers are sorted by ERA.

What are the batters sorted by?

24. JPWF13

Posted: January 06, 2006 at 01:27 PM (#1808952)

but the Gathright projection as a whole seems a bit out-of-sorts.

Everyone keeps saying that....
So I decided to do a completely unscientific study with a way too small sample size-
Similar type player- similar laying environment- how does Gathright stack up against the immortal Jason Tyner?

Tyner: 605 games AA/AAA: .305/.368/.358
result in mlb: .261/.299/.305

Gathright AA/AAA: .328/.391/.391
Gathright "projection": .281/.318/.333
[Gathright actual so far]:.271/.316/.322

25. Bromadrosis Posted: January 06, 2006 at 01:38 PM (#1808956)

I mean, if he can go .281/.342 + his (seemingly?) good defense, I think the Rays would be foolish to trade him for a B-level pitching prospect.

(That Olsen thing was so not real.)

26. Russ Posted: January 06, 2006 at 01:42 PM (#1808958)

OK, so the pitchers are sorted by ERA.

Either OPS or RC, can't remember.

27. The Wilpons Must Go (Tom D) Posted: January 06, 2006 at 02:04 PM (#1808969)

I have Upton in my roto league. Will he play this year or will they wait until he is "ready" (as in Randy Ready)?

28. Craig in MN Posted: January 06, 2006 at 02:28 PM (#1808983)

It's not sorted by OPS. It looks to me like it is Total Bases + BB, which would be a pretty decent way to sort overall offensive input. Of course, I'm always puzzled when when one stat is valuable enough to sort by, but not important enough to include in the table.

How are the DRays in regards to their salary limits? It looks to me like they might have the second cheapest team in baseball (though the most expensive one in Florida). It seems like if they were willing to spend a couple bucks to pick up even a decent pitcher or two, that would go a long way to improving that team. Even if they traded Lugo for league average-ish starter or a couple relievers, they'd be in better shape. With new ownership, I guess I would have expected them to bring in a player or two, for appearances if nothing else. Of course a "win now" philosophy is probably wasted in the current circumstances, but throwing that pitching staff out there is a waste too.

29. Azteca Posted: January 06, 2006 at 05:18 PM (#1809144)

For a 20 (21?) year old rookie? I say...Sweet! though i could see the slg up a little.

Well, Nate Silver's Pecota had Delmon's weighted mean at .257/.318/.411 coming into 2005. I guess .271/.314/.434 is a bit of a bump from that. Maybe that mediocre stint in the IL hurt his value...

30. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 06, 2006 at 05:28 PM (#1809160)

A few thoughts:
* Gathright's projection looks pretty good to me - he's looked more patient over time.
* So does Young's, though I'd certainly not be surprised if he had massive gains this year. Tremedous raw gifts, but he needs more discipline at the plate (granted - I've mainly watched his AAA stint, not his AA work).
* I thought the list was sorted by RC/27, though that's just a guess.
* I don't think anyone knows what Upton will do this year.
* Orvella gets a little too much love for my taste. Yeah, he's been great and has solid stuff, but I think predicting sub-3.50 eras is premature.

31. 101Wins Posted: January 07, 2006 at 12:28 AM (#1809831)

I realize that Gathright for Olson is too much coming back to the Rays, but what exactly is the market for Gathright? Every team knows that TB doesnt have room for him, correct? Arroyo seems pretty fair...who else?

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2006 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

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