Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, January 08, 2006

2006 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers


Name           P   AVG   OBP   SPC   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Teixeira#      1b .295 .377 .584 155 606 104 179 37 3 44 130 71 117 4 1
Wilkerson*      lf .280 .387 .504 151 554 99 155 44 4 24 102 94 148 9 8
Young         ss .322 .374 .487 160 673 110 217 38 5 21 98 53 93 6 3
Dellucci*      rf .247 .357 .476 121 393 79 97 15 3 23 65 64 108 5 3
McDougall       3b .276 .352 .454 101 359 56 99 20 1 14 57 42 67 4 2
Hyzdu         rf .242 .355 .457 121 363 76 88 28 1 16 71 61 78 4 3
Blalock*        3b .272 .335 .475 160 640 92 174 35 1 31 103 60 127 1 1
Colbrunn       1b .277 .322 .494 34 83   8 23 7 1 3 12   6 12 0 0
Nevin         1b .270 .332 .455 111 415 64 112 21 1 18 80 38 101 2 0
Mench         lf .264 .327 .474 139 508 67 134 31 2 24 79 45 65 3 2
Botts#        1b .257 .334 .455 140 499 66 128 27 3 22 79 53 141 4 3
Laird         c   .265 .333 .448 93 328 57 87 14 2 14 48 30 68 6 3
Hidalgo         rf .252 .321 .457 114 409 57 103 22 1 20 66 38 95 3 3
Sarge Lite#      rf .260 .327 .432 126 442 67 115 26 4 14 58 46 86 8 3
Jimenez#        2b .262 .358 .378 135 481 76 126 25 2 9 57 73 72 10 5
Eldridge#      lf .262 .355 .390 104 328 62 86 26 2 4 34 45 82 9 5
Nix*          cf .254 .303 .454 105 370 56 94 20 3 16 55 25 86 3 1
Allen         lf .292 .328 .421 96 349 50 102 22 1 7 44 18 63 6 6
Smith*        lf .255 .304 .440 86 302 45 77 19 2 11 43 20 56 3 1
Kinsler         ss .248 .310 .431 127 476 91 118 28 1 19 69 37 77 7 3
Burke         c   .256 .330 .390 99 313 46 80 16 1 8 44 28 54 1 2
Barajas         c   .249 .297 .444 113 378 48 94 23 0 17 57 22 65 0 0
DeRosa         2b .262 .324 .389 90 229 33 60 11 0 6 28 19 41 1 1
Metcalf         3b .234 .286 .406 116 414 55 97 24 4 13 53 26 110 4 2
Conti*        cf .245 .296 .385 123 449 68 110 23 2 12 56 29 113 3 3
Meyer*        ss .260 .307 .336 110 420 58 109 20 3 2 39 27 80 10 4
Brown#        cf .245 .308 .331 132 498 76 122 20 4 5 43 45 75 20 12
Arias         ss .270 .293 .350 123 474 61 128 18 4 4 44 15 46 16 9
Yan#          2b .263 .312 .311 126 483 70 127 13 2 2 38 34 53 37 15
Brewer         ss .238 .282 .336 105 366 52 87 16 1 6 36 21 59 4 4
McDonald       c   .211 .277 .322 75 242 26 51 13 1 4 26 21 53 0 0

Name           W   L   ERA   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Cordero         5   2   3.28 69   0   74.0   61   27   4   33   82
Francisco         3   2   3.56 39   0   43.0   33   17   3   24   52
Feldman         2   2   3.87 60   0   79.0   79   34   6   28   46
Ramirez*        4   2   3.97 44   0   59.0   63   26   7   10   31
Otsuka           6   4   4.04 69   0   69.0   63   31   5   30   62
Shouse*          2   1   4.08 61   0   53.0   53   24   5   18   34
Millwood         12   8   4.12 30 30   188.0 197   86 21   54 137
Almanzar         5   3   4.12 56   0   59.0   58   27   7   23   41
Loe           11   8   4.34 42 20   141.0 145   68 17   47   94
Carlson*        3   3   4.42 54   0   59.0   61   29   8   17   50
Riley*          6   5   4.66 24 22   110.0 109   57 11   46   80
Diamond         7   7   4.67 25 25   135.0 131   70 17   63 125
Gryboski         3   2   4.71 57   0   42.0   47   22   2   21   20
Benoit           6   5   4.83 32 15   108.0 106   58 18   46   95
Eaton           10 10   4.87 29 28   170.0 184   92 26   50 119
Dominguez         6   7   4.88 33 18   120.0 130   65 20   40   81
Littleton         5   6   4.92 39 11   119.0 136   65 14   40   62
Padilla         10 11   4.99 27 27   157.0 169   87 21   57   98
Bauer           4   6   5.00 36 11   99.0 105   55 12   41   59
Baker           7   8   5.03 30 23   143.0 165   80 23   39   87
Wasdin           2   3   5.14 25   7   70.0   80   40 12   21   39
Dickey           8 10   5.20 31 19   142.0 165   82 21   44   84
Danks*          8   9   5.36 28 25   151.0 172   90 27   52 105
Pote           1   2   5.40 18   3   40.0   44   24   4   24   27
Castro*          3   6   5.50 50   0   72.0   77   44   9   38   53
Masset           7 10   5.60 26 23   156.0 188   97 26   53   78
Bazzell         5   7   5.66 35 10   105.0 127   66 19   36   57
Regilio         4   7   5.69 22 16   87.0   92   55 11   60   61
Rupe           8 11   5.72 29 26   159.0 188 101 29   62   94
Anderson*        7 11   5.76 30 25   161.0 196 103 33   43   70
Volquez         7 10   5.83 28 24   139.0 165   90 30   44 102
Tejera*          3   5   5.84 40 11   91.0 103   59 19   37   64
Bukvich         2   4   5.87 42   0   46.0   41   30   7   39   50
Sele           6 10   5.93 24 23   123.0 154   81 20   49   50
Walker*          1   3   6.10 55   1   59.0   63   40 13   31   50
Montero         3   4   6.29 51   0   73.0   81   51 13   46   55
Leicester         4   9   6.34 38 14   105.0 115   74 19   59   78

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 08, 2006 at 07:00 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. 8ball Posted: January 08, 2006 at 08:03 PM (#1811479)
A couple of notable omissions are Edison Volquez and Rashad Eldridge...
   2. Dusty's Least Favorite Base-Clogger (Roy Hobbs) Posted: January 08, 2006 at 08:08 PM (#1811485)
Looks like Eaton's not gonna like the move to Ameriquest in his walk year.
   3. Excel Hearts Choi Posted: January 08, 2006 at 09:04 PM (#1811560)
Looks like Eaton's not gonna like the move to Ameriquest in his walk year.

But Wilkerson is going to love it there.
   4. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: January 08, 2006 at 09:06 PM (#1811562)
Looks like Eaton's not gonna like the move to Ameriquest in his walk year.

GM's really should use the threat to trade a pitcher to Texas or Colorado as leverage in signing extensions.
   5. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 08, 2006 at 10:05 PM (#1811646)
GM's really should use the threat to trade a pitcher to Texas or Colorado as leverage in signing extensions

That's a good idea. You know what we haven't seen, though? Real good hitters seeking out Colorado as a way to make themselves look like superstars. That's probably at least partially a function of Colorado's budget, but I remember there being a time when every free-agent hitter was rumored to be headed for Denver and a shot at 80 homers. But it hasn't really happened. Instead, you get Vinny Castilla and other mediocrities prologing careers on the verge of rigor mortis by showing up and slugging .500 for a season or two. And now you don't hear about the possibility of good hitters going to Colorado to pad their stats anymore.
   6. The Original SJ Posted: January 09, 2006 at 12:13 AM (#1811782)
Being a great slugger in Colorado is a catch 22. If you are great, it is because of Colorado, even if you would have been great otherwise.
   7. prhood Posted: January 09, 2006 at 01:05 AM (#1811830)
Besides, apart from Helton, the only players Colorado will sign are cheap ones. So aging sluggers who look better in Colorado are attractive and attracted. They operated with a $45 million budget in 2005 and are pleased that they were allowed to spend a few more $ in 2006.
   8. lincarnate Posted: January 09, 2006 at 01:28 AM (#1811843)
I'm going to start praying that Gerald Laird will win the catching job, although Buck will probably opt for The Slowest Not-Molina.

The only projections that look really out of whack to me are McDougall and Benoit. If I were a computer, I'd like .341/.416/.578 in the best pitcher's park in the PCL too, but in reality .250/.320/.410 is probably about where he'll end up if he gets to play south of Oklahoma. Benoit has been sick out of the bullpen the past two years, so if Buck will (for the love of God) leave him in the pen, he'll easily beat that.

The rest of the projections look pretty close to what I expected, although I think that all the new starters to beat their projections.
   9. Spivey Posted: January 09, 2006 at 01:45 AM (#1811859)
Yeah. I think MLEs tend to only work for prospects (and in particular prospects who haven't repeated a league). I don't know if that can be confirmed though. McDougall was a 26 year old who was repeating AAA. I think he's got a 750 OPS in him, which is nice for a backup. I think they should let him be the utility infielder. We'll see if they do.

Diamond has a pretty good projection. That basically shows they think he'd be a league average starter there now. I think that is optimistic but I think that he could be a September callup that could help them down the stretch if they need it.

Benoit should probably beat that projection, but his IP was so low last year it's not going to way heavily in ZIPS.

I wonder if they'll let Jimenez compete for the 2B job.

If Nix can post a 750 OPS (even if it is SLG heavy), it will be a great asset to their offense.

Finally, as everyone knows, it'd be nice if Laird started. But naturally, he's not going to.
   10. I Am Not a Number Posted: January 09, 2006 at 02:38 AM (#1811930)
So I guess this won't be the year that Hank Blalock turns into George Brett.
   11. lincarnate Posted: January 09, 2006 at 04:36 AM (#1812092)
I think Blalock will beat that projection, but he might not if Rudy doesn't take him out back and tell him to stop trying to hit home runs and just hit. And shave. And stop getting tattoos. It'd also help if Buck gave him a day off or 15 during the year so he doesn't have his spectacular summer slump. The days off don't have to be against LHPs, but preferably they would be since Hank seems to really struggle versus them and DeRosa has a nice platoon split versus them and McDougall won't be any worse against southpaws.
   12. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'. Posted: January 09, 2006 at 04:46 AM (#1812099)
Hyzdu looks good.

If only the Red Sox had a 4th OF like him...
   13. Dr. Vaux Posted: January 09, 2006 at 06:06 AM (#1812125)
Well, the Rangers project to 92-70. ####.
   14. Spivey Posted: January 09, 2006 at 06:14 AM (#1812128)
Well, the Rangers project to 92-70. ####.

I presume you're starting the guys with the best ZIPS, which aren't necessarily going to be the guys starting.

How does ZIPS account for defense? Using past DERs or ZRs, or what?
   15. Dr. Vaux Posted: January 09, 2006 at 06:28 AM (#1812133)
I'm not sure how ZIPS account for defense, but I've been assuming it's in there. I started what seems to be the most likely line-up: Barajas, Blalock, Young, Kinsler, Texeira, Mench, Wilkerson, Matthews, and Delluci. Nix is the main backup OF, Nevin gets 150 ab as a fill-in DH, and Jimmenez, MacDougal, and DeRosa see 150 ab each as backup infielders. I've got the team as a whole for 5510 AB, the AL average last year. Using OBP*SLG*AB, they project to score 908 runs.

The pitching staff projects to allow 768 runs, using RA=ER*1.07, with the ERAs seen here except for Millwood adjusted up to 4.60, Padilla down to 4.70, and the innings totals changed to reflect a five-man rotation of Millwood, Padilla, Eaton, Loe, and Dominguez, all pitching 180 innings. Bullpen innings were assigned on the basis of a 7-man bullpen, 50-70 IP per man, and a total team innings figure of 1440, last year's AL team average.

All this comes out to an 88-74 straight pythagorean, 95-67 with W=81 + [XR-XRA/10], and a leveraged projection therefore of 92-70. That's the same leveraged projection as Boston and LA of A, for a wild card race that will be decided by injuries.
   16. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 09, 2006 at 06:36 AM (#1812137)
I regress DER to the mean, wrote an algorithm to estimate infield and outfield defense and make an estimate based the GB/FB tendencies of the pitcher (thank you BA!). Essentially, I'm attempting to make a reasonable projection for $H, which ain't easy.
   17. Spivey Posted: January 09, 2006 at 07:10 AM (#1812147)
Dan - Thanks. BTW, you need to give Teixeira an Excellent in fielding. Trust me, he's better than Pujols.

BTW, I've seen work down based off thousands of simulations for DMB for their fielding ratings (which I don't agree with, BTW):

1B PR -16
1B FR -10
1B AV 0
1B VG 7
1B EX 20

2B PR -21
2B FR -8
2B AV 0
2B VG 4
2B EX 20

3B PR -25
3B FR -10
3B AV 0
3B VG 10
3B EX 20

SS PR -14
SS FR -12
SS AV 0
SS VG 8
SS EX 15

LF PR -17
LF FR -11
LF AV 0
LF VG 11
LF EX 12

CF PR -13
CF FR -8
CF AV 0
CF VG 12
CF EX 13

RF PR -24
RF FR -10
RF AV 0
RF VG 4
RF EX 16

These Range ratings should be unbiased by errors. Rauseo did some work in our DMB league, based off this original work. Each position is based off of 100 season sims (they used 1980) for each level of quality fielder. Some positions might have some interrelatedness (2b and SS, mainly). You can read the original thread to see if you find any. I haven't completely read it, but have read some of it.

Naturally, there is going to be some error even with that many sims, but it shows how they consider a top 1B to take away as many balls as a 2B (and more than a SS, but that is possibly error). This isn't to the putouts aren't generally pretty accurate to real life - just that those 'tweener balls that some players get to and some don't - they seem to be just about the same at every position for every position in the IF, and for every position in the OF.

Furthermore, catcher range makes basically no difference, however catcher arm and hold rating can lower your runs scored significantly (this can be viewed in the linked thread).
   18. Spivey Posted: January 09, 2006 at 07:17 AM (#1812148)
You're free to copy that anywhere you want Dan, if you want to post it somewhere for people to see (I know a ton of people around here use DMB). Keep these range ratings in mind if you're one of the ones that runs ZIPS to see how MLB teams are going to do.
   19. Spivey Posted: January 09, 2006 at 07:53 AM (#1812157)
One problem could be Nix could be the starting CF. I haven't seen any reports yet and I think their OF alignment is still up in the air.

MLB.com has the starting OF with Dellucci listed as both the LF and the DH. Clearly, that's wrong. He'll be the DH against LHP and Nevin will DH against RHP. The question is if they go with Matthews, Wilkerson, and Mench or if they go with Nix, Wilkerson, and Mench. Either way, all 4 will get quite a bit of PT (the backup will get more than 150 PA).

If ZIPS is using a lot of Nix in CF and he ends up not getting too much PT, that could throw off the defensive calculations by a win or perhaps even two(he's good at defense, Wilkerson isn't good in CF, Matthews isn't good period).

And lastly, Dan, Gary Matthews Jr. isn't listed on this ZIPS.
   20. Dr. Vaux Posted: January 09, 2006 at 08:04 AM (#1812159)
Nix and Matthews project to the same RC per AB, so that switch doesn't matter. The difference between Nevin and Dellucci is also fa less than a whole win.

"Sarge Lite" is Matthews, I presume.
   21. Spivey Posted: January 09, 2006 at 08:08 AM (#1812161)
Ah, OK.
   22. Spivey Posted: January 09, 2006 at 08:11 AM (#1812162)
I think the Nevin projection is too high, FWIW. But I can't really imagine a situation where he'll play that much.
   23. Dan Lee is some pumkins Posted: January 09, 2006 at 08:12 AM (#1812163)
Gary Matthews Jr. isn't listed on this ZIPS.

He's hidden:
Sarge Lite# rf .260 .327 .432
   24. Dr. Vaux Posted: January 09, 2006 at 09:27 AM (#1812192)
I gave Nevin only 150 AB in my projection. Honestly, this team looks more solid than the Angels. It's going to be ugly, but it's going to slug its way to lots of victories.
   25. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: January 09, 2006 at 09:48 AM (#1812201)
They should move the fences in
   26. Dr. Vaux Posted: January 09, 2006 at 12:14 PM (#1812214)
Stupid, stupid me... I was doing pythag wrong! It's ^1.83, not *1.83! D'oh. Anyway, no need for that leverage ####, the Rangers projection is 93-69.
   27. BDC Posted: January 09, 2006 at 12:57 PM (#1812226)
Blalock may never turn into George Brett, but .272 31 103 is roughly Eric Chavez, and that's all they need from him. The problem is that it's hard to tell whether he'll get back to that level, or turn into Fernando Tatis instead. And that's probably the key non-battery problem that the team faces.
   28. hpt150 Posted: January 09, 2006 at 03:18 PM (#1812379)
SP Chris Young is a man without a team. No ZIPS for him either with the Rangers or the Padres. Or did I just miss it?
   29. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: January 09, 2006 at 03:58 PM (#1812452)
These Range ratings should be unbiased by errors.

Yep. I set all the error rates to 100 for all players on the teams for all the sims. Once I got into it, I thought maybe it would be better to set them all to zeroes so we only saw the effects of range, not errors, but by that point I wasn't turning back!


Naturally, there is going to be some error even with that many sims, ...

I think the next step would be to run some sort of linear weights analysis on the hit rates to try to remove, for example, the effects of variations in home run and walk rates on overall scoring. But I think the run numbers as they are make a good starting point for discussion and evaluation. I never thought about linking to the DMB forum from here even though I know there are a bunch of DMB players here too. Thanks!
   30. Spivey Posted: January 09, 2006 at 07:27 PM (#1812798)
I presume you're Gary? If so, great job. This work is invaluable IMO.
   31. fra paolo Posted: March 06, 2006 at 09:55 PM (#1886005)
I've just noticed C. J. Wilson hasn't got a ZiPS projection, unless he's in the 2d build.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
BarrysLazyBoy
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.3569 seconds
42 querie(s) executed