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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, January 12, 2007

2007 ZiPS Projections and Disk for Diamond Mind 9, Build 1

The spreadsheet for the entirety of projections made to date can be found right here.

The DMB projection disk made using the 2007 ZiPS Projections can be found right right here.

Since this question comes up every year, to use the ZiPS projection disk with DMB 9, create a new empty database, select “Restore” and then select the zip file.

What’s been done so far?

- Projection for every player I’ve done to date.

- Every player is listed on their current team, to the best of my knowledge.  As I’ve said before, minor-league transactions are reported very inconsistently and even people in the team’s PR department generally won’t be made aware of a lot of them, especially the very minor ones.  Any mistakes made or any signings that I’m unaware of should definitely be brought up so that I can make the changes.

- On the DMB disk, I’ve made players on the 40-man roster active and players not on the 40-man roster inactive.  While theoretically, this would enable one to actually do a quick 2007 sim, the results will be really goofy because I simply let DMB pick lineups and rotations and have not entered real ones yet.  DMB sometimes does some really wacky things and some things that won’t happen, like Ryan Theriot starting at 2B over DeRosa, moving Dunn back and forth between a 1B/LF platoon of Votto/Denorfia, benching Griffey Jr., and refusing to play Horacio Ramirez.

Also, this is the best place to request new projections so that I don’t have to comb over each individual team projection post.  All reasonable requests will be honored - for example, I’m not willing to attempt to project Max Scherzer and I have no idea how to even start projecting a Cuban defector.  I will however, project Japanese players to a neutral park, so long as the request isn’t “Dan, you could project all of NPB?”  I will also consider disputes on DMB ratings and will make adjustments if I find the argument compelling.  “Jeter, FR rating?  You suck!” is not an example of one such.

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:34 PM | 58 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 06:30 PM (#2279442)
wow good work.
   2. Garth found his way to daylight Posted: January 12, 2007 at 06:41 PM (#2279452)
Thanks very much for your hard work, Dan.
   3. Jim Wisinski Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:21 PM (#2279533)
refusing to play Horacio Ramirez


I would consider that a sign of DMB's advanced intelligence as a baseball sim.
   4. Mooser Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:25 PM (#2279538)
I think this question gets asked every year. Are the pitching stats projected (defence neutral), so that there is no 'double counting' in the pitching stats - since the fielders will be rated accordingly.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:46 PM (#2279558)
I'm generally very conservative about both assigning fielding ratings and projecting team defense in my projections. Without knowing exactly how event tables are calculated, I can't do any better than that.
   6. sardonic Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:57 PM (#2279575)
C'mon AROM... I haven't got all day to wait for your damn DMB sim.
   7. zack Posted: January 12, 2007 at 10:14 PM (#2279645)
Thanks for the work, Dan!

I just spent the last hour playing with this.
   8. 100 Years is Nothing Posted: January 12, 2007 at 11:56 PM (#2279714)
Great work! Any way you could project 3B Casey McGehee of the Cubs? Thanks!
   9. HowardMegdal Posted: January 13, 2007 at 12:48 AM (#2279759)
Dan, thank you so much for this. Do you know where/how I can get the 2007 schedule file as well?
   10. Brother of Adrian, and A's fan Posted: January 13, 2007 at 01:59 AM (#2279814)
Dan, or anyone for that matter.

Could you post the average RC27 for each position in each league? That would be great.

Thanks in advance.
   11. kwarren Posted: January 13, 2007 at 02:51 AM (#2279826)
Thanks Dan.......this is great, and IT'S FREE.
   12. CoastalFan Posted: January 13, 2007 at 03:12 AM (#2279832)
Thanks Dan! You ARE, as always, the man! Hay Ken! Nice to see you on here too!

Anthony in Oregon
   13. HowardMegdal Posted: January 13, 2007 at 04:21 AM (#2279855)
Wow- this generated schedule has the Mets open against the Yankees. Hope this isn't true to life.
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 13, 2007 at 04:46 AM (#2279861)
I've re-posted the database with the 2006 schedule. I thought I had already done that, but I didn't. There are also a few other changes (Ronnie Merrill added to Arizona, Claussen and Williams signings).
   15. bibigon Posted: January 13, 2007 at 08:00 AM (#2279940)
Where is J.D. Drew? I know he's not technically with the Red Sox yet, but he's also not listed as being with the Dodgers. Is he in no man's land?
   16. Good cripple hitter Posted: January 13, 2007 at 09:11 AM (#2279963)
Drew's in the spreadsheet. He's projected at .266/.383/.452 in 115 games. He's one of the players who is listed as having no team.

If you're taking requests, can I get a Michael Nakamura projection? He was my favourite AAAA reliever when he was with the Jays, and I was stunned when I learned that he was the closer for the Nippon Ham Fighters and was good enough to finish pretty high up in the MVP voting.
   17. EvilBoWeevil Posted: January 13, 2007 at 09:19 AM (#2279964)
Hey Randy Johnson, Jaret Wright, and Garry Sheffield are still Yankees?
   18. HowardMegdal Posted: January 13, 2007 at 06:44 PM (#2280106)
"I've re-posted the database with the 2006 schedule."

I wish I could get the 2007- anyone know if that's in the cyber-ether?
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 13, 2007 at 08:55 PM (#2280151)
The schedule is usually one of the last things I do. However, SG had already gone and created a schedule for the CHONE disk, which he adjusted for my database structure and sent to me. The uploaded 2007ZIPS now has the 2007 sched.
   20. HowardMegdal Posted: January 13, 2007 at 08:59 PM (#2280154)
Wow Dan, just wow. Do you have a bead on the fountain of youth? Also, a pony for my wife? She's always wanted a pony.
   21. greenback likes millwall Posted: January 13, 2007 at 09:23 PM (#2280164)
Dan, I didn't see Chris Gissell so at the risk of beating Howard's wife's dead pony, I'll ask again. A Sammy Sosa projection might be amusing too.

Do the blank team fellows have neutral-park projections or last-team projections?
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 13, 2007 at 09:45 PM (#2280168)
Weird, I had done a projection for Gissell, too. Not sure where that went.

Blank guys are last-team projections.
   23. HowardMegdal Posted: January 13, 2007 at 10:07 PM (#2280175)
"Dan, I didn't see Chris Gissell so at the risk of beating Howard's wife's dead pony, I'll ask again."

Shhh. I told her he was just resting.
   24. FBI Posted: January 14, 2007 at 12:30 AM (#2280203)
Using the spreadsheet here are Team ERAs based on top 6 starters, top 6 relievers
Liriano from MIN was the only player adjusted and he was removed
SD 3.76
LAA 3.77
NYN 4.00
STL 4.03
DET 4.04
TOR 4.05
CHN 4.07
OAK 4.09
HOU 4.11
LAD 4.12
CLE 4.13
MIL 4.13
NYA 4.16
BOS 4.17
PIT 4.19
MIN 4.23
FLA 4.24
...
TEX 4.55
COL 4.64
CHA 4.67
KC 4.81
   25. flournoy Posted: January 14, 2007 at 12:49 AM (#2280209)
Dan, more an amusement than anything else, could you do a Jonathan Schuerholz projection?
   26. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 14, 2007 at 12:58 AM (#2280210)
Jonny Nepotism!
   27. Dr. Vaux Posted: January 14, 2007 at 01:00 AM (#2280211)
Um... those look like team ERAs from 1986. Somethin' wrong there.
   28. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 14, 2007 at 02:20 AM (#2280227)
Yup, magic arms that don't get injured and 100% perfect team evaluation!
   29. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 14, 2007 at 03:25 AM (#2280246)
a few roster changes: tydus meadows - mil; ben davis - nyy; mark kiger - nym
   30. FBI Posted: January 14, 2007 at 04:29 AM (#2280263)
RPG Based on ZIPS. Identify 8 starters and take average (9 in AL)
--------------------------------------------
COL 6.41
NYA 6.34
BOS 6.22
ATL 5.96
CLE 5.92
PHI 5.85
CHN 5.72
STL 5.68
NYN 5.63
ARI 5.61
CHA 5.55
TEX 5.53
DET 5.50
TOR 5.48
LAD 5.45
...
WAS 5.20
TB 5.15
KC 5.02
LAA 5.02
SEA 5.00
PIT 4.93

Extremely flawed method
ie Napoli counts as much as Guerrerro
   31. FBI Posted: January 14, 2007 at 04:58 AM (#2280269)
Some batters I'd like to see ZIPs for
------------------------------------
Jose Tabata NYA
Travis Snider Tor
Bill Rowell Bal
Trevor Crowe Cle
Dexter Fowler Col
Joe Koshansky Col
Brandon Jones Atl
Eric Campbell Atl
Van Pope Atl
Drew Stubbs Cin
Bryan Anderson SLN
Anderson Gomes ChA
Chris Carter ChA
Cedric Hunter SDN
Matt Tuiasosopo Sea
Tyler Colvin CHN
Hank Conger LAA
Chris Nelson Col
Chris Parmelee Min
John Mayberry Tex
Justin Towles Hou
Jeff Bianchi KCA
Will Venable SD
Chris Marrero Was
C.J. Henry NYA
   32. greenback likes millwall Posted: January 14, 2007 at 05:21 AM (#2280271)
Bryan Anderson SLN

I really don't want to see that a 20-yo A-ball catcher -- a nice prospect, but still a 20-yo A-ball catcher -- is projected to out-hit the starting major league catcher.
   33. AROM Posted: January 14, 2007 at 05:36 AM (#2280280)
C'mon AROM... I haven't got all day to wait for your damn DMB sim.

Its been done. SG took the CHONE file, loaded it to Diamond Mind, and ran a bunch of sims. Its on the Replacement Level Yankee blog.
   34. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 14, 2007 at 05:40 AM (#2280282)
Jeff Bianchi KCA...

I really don't want to see that a 20-yo A-ball catcher -- a nice prospect, but still a 20-yo A-ball catcher -- is projected to out-hit the starting major league catcher.

Nor do I want to see the 20 year old shortstop with all of 150 pro at bats would out hit the starting major league shortstop.

Nice work Dan.
   35. bianchiveloce Posted: January 14, 2007 at 10:25 AM (#2280334)
Thank you, Dan!
   36. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 14, 2007 at 03:29 PM (#2280353)
I've made the team changes of the players so far and added projections for Nakamura and McGehee. I'm gonna start tackling the rest of the new players today, though I'm not going to do all the players on FBI's list.

I normally note this (but didn't above), but I try to avoid projecting players with less than 1 full professional season, unless there's a chance they'll get all the way to the majors in the upcoming season, like Weeks and Andrew Miller right after their drafts. So, I can do guys like Tabata and Tuiasosopo, but I really can't do a projection with any accuracy for someone like Billy Rowell, who has less than 200 pro at-bats and only 11 games above rookie ball.
   37. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 14, 2007 at 03:45 PM (#2280357)
I uploaded the files before doing the Schuerholz projection, but just for entertainment value, Jonny Nepotism's projection:

180/237/230
3B - FR, 2B - PR, SS - PR

Even dumbass Cam Bonifay didn't overpromote his kid to the extent that Schuerholz does.
   38. LASpirit Posted: January 14, 2007 at 03:58 PM (#2280360)
Dan,
Any chance you have the ZiPS projections with the MLB player id's for each player? Great work. Thanks!
   39. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 14, 2007 at 04:33 PM (#2280373)
Do you mean the b-r IDs or the DMB Ids? FOr the former, no, for the latter, I have as many players as I could find with their UID.
   40. LASpirit Posted: January 14, 2007 at 04:45 PM (#2280378)
Unfortunately, i mean the b-r IDs... Thanks, though. Looks like i'll be breaking out Perl. Thanks again for the projections. These are great.
   41. LASpirit Posted: January 14, 2007 at 04:47 PM (#2280379)
Actually, upon checking, i meant the MLB ids mlb.com uses on their site. Its a numerical id, unlike the alphanumeric id b-r uses and OOTP uses.
   42. Runscreated Posted: January 14, 2007 at 04:49 PM (#2280382)
Dan,
Thanks so much for ZIPS. Every year I have a few "Steals of the Draft" due to your projections. The only real work I have to do is separate the NL players from AL players as my league is an NL only.

Is anyone doing an analysis as to how your projections compare to Shandler's and PECOTA over at Baseball Prospectus? I have seen one in the past that was general. It would be useful to see a comparison that actually shows how many players you were relatively close to projecting correctly. Would OPS as a measure be the best for hitters and ERA for pitchers?
   43. AROM Posted: January 14, 2007 at 05:11 PM (#2280392)
I did a general comparison of the projection systems on my site

I used ERA and OPS simply because those are the two measures I could in everyone's projections.
   44. STEAGLES is all out of bubblegum Posted: January 14, 2007 at 07:40 PM (#2280425)
i'd like to see the projections for tim olson, matt tupman, and vasili spanos.
   45. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: January 15, 2007 at 01:57 AM (#2280501)
2 projections requested:

Justin Jones WAS
Yohan Pino MIN
   46. CoastalFan Posted: January 15, 2007 at 06:29 AM (#2280567)
Some interesting lineups shake out when you start running games. Kouzmanoff is the 3B starter in San Diego, in theory, right? I like McAnaulty (sp?) better too, but...
Also, 5th starter in Philly - Eaton or Moyer? I just moved it to Eaton just to see...
Thanks again Dan - you rock...!!
   47. Sawney Snows Posted: January 15, 2007 at 07:14 AM (#2280576)
When you're done with all the other requests, can you highlight all the players projected to go 1-for-2 with a triple, or 1-for-1 with a walk? Thanks!
   48. Don Guillote (The Cheat) Posted: January 15, 2007 at 08:40 AM (#2280582)
I'd like to see the projection for Heath Phillips.

He may be 8th or 9th in line for the 5th starter job for the White Sox, but his strong season in Charlotte combined with the poor showing of other 5th starter candidates makes me think that ZiPS might project him to be the Sox 5th best starter next year.
   49. kupper Posted: January 15, 2007 at 04:58 PM (#2280651)
is there a page that explains how your projections work. for example what rc and rc27 mean?
   50. Snuffy Posted: January 15, 2007 at 06:41 PM (#2280704)
Dan,

Great stuff! Thanks a ton.
You have Miguel Cabrera (FLA) listed as a LF. Do you expect him to move from 3b?
   51. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 15, 2007 at 08:02 PM (#2280727)
for example what rc and rc27 mean?

rc = runs created
rc27 = runs created per 27 outs
   52. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 15, 2007 at 08:17 PM (#2280735)
A basic outline of what ZiPS is and what is not can be found here.

Cabrera's listed as a LF because it's a mistake. When I go year-to-year on the DMB disks, I import the previous season so that I don't have to re-do the biographical data and with 2000 players, there are always some that I miss the position change.

In this case, I imported the 2006 Cabrera who I had listed as a LF because when I made his projection in October 2005, he had played more leftfield than 3B and the Marlins still hadn't committed to moving him back to 3rd.

I would be very surprised if Cabrera is the only mistake left on this front.
   53. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 15, 2007 at 08:18 PM (#2280736)
Just a few requests:

P Tyler Lumsden KC
P Brad Knox OAK
1B Nate Gold TEX
C Matt Tupman KC

Thanks!
   54. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 15, 2007 at 09:29 PM (#2280759)
One request, though it's likely to be brutal: Kuwata for the Pirates.

Cam's kid was actually a pretty good hitter, even made an AS team on his way up. Too bad his knees were shot before he even started...
   55. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 15, 2007 at 09:29 PM (#2280760)
Actually, an additional NPB request: Alex Ochoa just picked up a NRI with the Red Sox.
   56. Masticore317 Posted: January 17, 2007 at 04:54 PM (#2281773)
How about a Hideki Okajima projection?
   57. Cheer and boo and raise a hullabaloo Posted: January 17, 2007 at 06:55 PM (#2281852)
Just another thanks for the great work.
   58. Masticore317 Posted: January 18, 2007 at 06:41 PM (#2282600)
Also, how about a projection for Pete LaForest? The Padres resigned him to a minor league deal and apparently he is healthy again.

Thanks!!!

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