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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, October 02, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks


Name       P   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Quentin     rf .262 .361 .472 136 447 79 117 31 3 19 64 51 72 5 1
Hairston   lf .276 .334 .522 106 370 64 102 19 3 22 57 32 77 3 1
Young     cf .255 .336 .525 125 459 94 117 33 2 29 69 53 87 15 5
Jackson     1b .285 .372 .429 124 410 65 117 27 1 10 56 53 57 2 1
Tracy*    3b .286 .349 .465 149 548 77 157 37 2 19 75 50 95 4 2
DaVanon#    cf .273 .377 .408 100 238 39 65 11 3 5 29 39 46 10 4
Gonzalez*  lf .259 .353 .435 143 517 72 134 44 1 15 68 70 69 1 1
Drew*      ss .278 .335 .467 122 467 63 130 25 6 17 61 37 91 4 2
Hudson#    2b .280 .348 .440 143 514 73 144 31 6 13 64 53 77 7 4
Estrada#    c   .294 .339 .434 116 401 44 118 29 0 9 54 22 45 0 0
Green     2b .277 .346 .438 129 404 71 112 29 3 10 46 40 77 5 4
Byrnes     cf .265 .323 .462 136 506 76 134 34 3 20 69 37 85 15 2
Clark#    1b .234 .313 .496 110 256 32 60 14 1 17 50 28 75 0 0
Carter*    1b .260 .331 .437 137 497 73 129 26 1 20 68 53 64 4 3
Easley     2b .244 .329 .443 95 221 28 54 15 1 9 33 24 38 2 1
Montero*    c   .264 .328 .430 119 428 57 113 21 1 16 57 37 66 1 2
D’Antona   3b .264 .331 .397 126 428 62 113 27 0 10 48 43 81 2 2
Hammock     c   .251 .296 .466 94 311 17 78 17 1 16 48 17 48 2 2
Callaspo#  2b .285 .339 .385 135 522 76 149 25 3 7 52 40 27 9 8
Barden     3b .265 .310 .430 132 486 67 129 32 3 14 62 28 109 4 3
Snyder     c   .241 .325 .392 103 316 37 76 18 0 10 37 38 69 1 1
Counsell*  ss .251 .338 .340 130 459 62 115 23 3 4 39 56 65 18 5
Brito     c   .252 .303 .386 78 246 30 62 12 0 7 28 17 54 1 1
Ball#      cf .234 .342 .325 103 320 52 75 15 1 4 25 51 97 19 12
Gil       ss .233 .263 .434 113 424 62 99 22 3 19 61 14 105 5 5
Erickson*  2b .245 .311 .318 107 302 41 74 16 0 2 24 25 50 6 3

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Stephen Drew
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .302 .362 .538 132 504 80 152 29 9 24 72 43 66 4 2
Mean         .278 .335 .467 122 467 63 130 25 6 17 61 37 91 4 2
Pessimistic (15%) .258 .315 .407 112 430 50 111 22 3 12 53 31 89 3 3

Name       ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Webb       3.85 14 10 32 32   220.0 211   94 17   66 170
Medders     3.91   5   4 61   0   69.0   64   30   5   26   62
Valverde   4.21   3   3 56   0   62.0   54   29   7   27   74
Slaten*    4.22   3   3 60   0   64.0   58   30   4   30   58
Choate*    4.26   2   3 70   1   57.0   57   27   3   25   42
Cruz       4.50   5   5 37 12   94.0   86   47   9   46   92
Vizcaino   4.64   4   6 68   0   66.0   62   34   9   28   60
Lyon       4.68   2   3 39   0   50.0   54   26   6   16   38
Gonzalez   4.96   7 11 29 28   167.0 186   92 20   55 105
Julio     4.97   3   4 63   0   67.0   61   37 12   33   77
Pena       4.97   5   7 58   0   76.0   86   42 12   18   46
Gonzalez   5.08   6 11 32 27   172.0 193   97 32   38 123
Batista     5.14   6 12 39 27   182.0 199 104 18   81   97
Hernandez   5.14   9 16 34 34   231.0 258 132 31   83 142
Koplove     5.14   2   4 57   0   70.0   74   40   8   31   42
Schultz     5.20   3   5 57   0   64.0   68   37   4   36   41
Nippert     5.41   6 12 24 23   138.0 151   83 21   59   98
Aquino     5.50   1   3 49   0   54.0   57   33   7   28   49
Ohlendorf   5.51   6 13 28 27   183.0 225 112 29   48   95
Vargas     5.54   6 13 32 26   151.0 169   93 28   54 112
Bajenaru   5.72   2   6 57   2   74.0   78   47 12   38   61
Bass       5.88   5 12 28 28   170.0 205 111 33   55   90
Murphy*    5.97   3   9 32 18   119.0 124   79 21   68   97
Daigle     6.00   3   9 45 10   102.0 124   68 17   27   56
Bacsik*    6.27   3 11 31 18   122.0 155   85 30   32   67

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Brandon Webb
              ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.13 17   7 32 32   227.0 202   79 13   55 187
Mean           3.85 14 10 32 32   220.0 211   94 17   66 170
Pessimistic (15%)  4.82 10 14 32 32   211.0 226 113 22   79 144

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 02, 2006 at 07:17 PM | 84 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. flournoy Posted: October 02, 2006 at 07:52 PM (#2194752)
Which Gonzalez is Edgar, and which is Enrique?

Of course, given their nearly identical projections, it doesn't really matter.
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 02, 2006 at 07:55 PM (#2194755)
Enrique is the lower one.
   3. Kyle S Posted: October 02, 2006 at 07:55 PM (#2194756)
Dan, the season hasn't been over 24 hours and already you've got one team's projections done. Impressive!
   4. Rich Corinthian Leather Posted: October 02, 2006 at 07:59 PM (#2194762)
How many HBP for Quentin??
   5. Robert S. Posted: October 02, 2006 at 08:08 PM (#2194777)
Two thoughts:

1. ZiPS is always 'low' on Webb.
2. Jackson is easily going to beat those power numbers.
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 02, 2006 at 08:09 PM (#2194778)
21
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 02, 2006 at 08:16 PM (#2194791)

1. ZiPS is always 'low' on Webb.


Yes, Brandon Webb has succeeded Kevin Gryboski as Player ZiPS Never Ever Gets Right.
   8. Rob Base Posted: October 02, 2006 at 08:22 PM (#2194799)
pwn3d!
   9. The Buddy Biancalana Hit Counter Posted: October 02, 2006 at 08:34 PM (#2194820)
Shouldn't the mean prediction be even worse than the pessismistic one?
   10. shoewizard Posted: October 02, 2006 at 08:49 PM (#2194844)
What are the factors in the calculations that would have Jackson's slug% and homers so low?
That HR/AB ratio is much worse than he put up in his rookie year, and worse than he put up in his last year in Tucson. I know it's not 'bias"....the computer does what it does,....I'd just like to understand why.

Conversely, what is the formula seeing in Chris Young to have him hitting with SO MUCH power his rookie year? We all know he has excellent homer potential, but it seems ZIPS is saying he is there RIGHT NOW.

Thanks for any illuminating you can do. :-)
   11. J. Cross Posted: October 02, 2006 at 08:57 PM (#2194855)
I hope Chris Young can make that happen but it does seem like a hell of a HR-rate for a rookie. I agree that Jackson outhits that projection.
   12. Sparkles Peterson Posted: October 02, 2006 at 09:06 PM (#2194864)
That is going to be one hell of an offense in 2008.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 02, 2006 at 09:10 PM (#2194873)
What are the factors in the calculations that would have Jackson's slug% and homers so low?
That HR/AB ratio is much worse than he put up in his rookie year, and worse than he put up in his last year in Tucson. I know it's not 'bias"....the computer does what it does,....I'd just like to understand why.


Some of Jackson is that his MLEs for homers aren't very impressive.

ZiPS just loves Chris Young. He's exactly the type of player that historically, can be on the brink of a homer explosion. He's been young, he's already displayed quite a bit of power, he hits a ton of doubles already. His 2005 was just unreal - before his 22nd birthday, hitting 26 home runs in a park that had a park factor the 3rd-lowest in professional baseball.

I've put in a bunch of the more likely names and, more than any of the other, ZiPS sees Chris Young as the hitter most likely to take a massive leap forward in 2007.
   14. shoewizard Posted: October 02, 2006 at 09:14 PM (#2194878)
Just looking at 2006 ZIPS for Jackson,

.279/.359/.423

He ended up hitting

.291/.368/.441

Pretty good projection, I would say. Definitely within a fairly close range across the board.
Still, considering his minor league track record, and this past rookie season, it seems like his July callup numbers from last year must be what is "mucking up" his projections for 2007.


.285/.372/.429 is not an unreasonable projection, but I would be willing to bet a fairly sizeable amount on the "over"
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 02, 2006 at 09:15 PM (#2194885)
That is going to be one hell of an offense in 2008.

It's important to note that some of Chase's PFs creeped up quite a bit in 2006 (1 yr HR factor of 130, run factor of 120).
   16. shoewizard Posted: October 02, 2006 at 09:21 PM (#2194896)
Better outfield defense and perhaps another groundball pitcher will knock the park factor back down a bit. Up until August 20th, the AZ starting outfield configuration was especially ill suited to their home ballpark.
   17. J. Cross Posted: October 02, 2006 at 09:25 PM (#2194899)
Is Byrnes going to get the chance to form an everyday outfield with Young and Quentin? Or, will his low OBP get him pushed out of regular duty?
   18. J. Cross Posted: October 02, 2006 at 09:33 PM (#2194906)
FWIW, Jackson's prOPS: .289/.368/.453 (.165 ISO)

So, he was projected at 144 ISO, hit for a 150 ISO with a props 165 ISO. Another 144 ISO does seem low. I know the MLE's are the reason for it but offhand I'd project 160.
   19. bibigon Posted: October 02, 2006 at 10:58 PM (#2194964)
FWIW, Jackson's prOPS: .289/.368/.453 (.165 ISO)


Is there any reason to believe that PrOPS doesn't just systematically overrate slow guys and underrate fast guys? Take a look at the list of "unluckiest" performances over the last 3 years: Bonds, Dunn, Thomas, Palmeiro, Giambi, Aaron Boone, David Bell, Giambi again, etc... Now take a look at the luckiest performances: Ichiro, Cano, Reed Johnson, Freddy Sanchez, Carlos Guillen, Carlos Guillen again, Mora, Jack Wilson, Sizemore, etc...

It's not a slam dunk or anything, and it could just be a fluke, but especially with slow guys, the effect seems pretty strong.

--------------------------------------

As for Webb, I know it's the system, but I've gotta say, I'm a bit confused with his projection. He's beat that ERA 3 years in a row now. He's beat it on peripherals too in the last two years. Basically, is it just that generic age related decline and regression to mean are sufficiently strong forces to push that through? I believe it, but I'd like to know if something else is going on statistically instead that I'm just not noticing.
   20. 1k5v3L Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:13 AM (#2195039)
Good stuff, Dan. Thanks.

A couple of comments and a question.

On offense: I agree that Conor Jackson will exceed his projected HR total next year. My fanboyish bet is that he doubles his 10 HR projection. Also, it'll be a shame that Hairston most likely won't get a chance to play in LF in AZ next year. Real shame. A. Green won't play with the Dbacks; he's most likely headed to Japan. Finally, Estrada who?

On pitching: Livan will do a lot better than that projection. However, the projection for everyone not named Webb is probably right. Batista isn't coming back, and rightfully so. The Dbacks will need a solid #2 or #3 if they'll strut the Gonzalez brothers in the rotation. I also will be shocked if Vargas is brought back. Time to cut bait on him.

Questions:

Do you have, or can you post, projections for the following guys:

Micah Owings, p
Steven Jackson, p
Bill White, p
Danny Richar, 2b

Thanks
   21. J. Cross Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:18 AM (#2195043)
bibigon, I agree that it must overrate slow guys and underrate fast guys to some extent. I've also speculated that with the prevalance of "the shift" that it overrates power lefties who have to hit into the shift.

Still, even with those concerns it does supposedly have predictive power (over and above plain old OBP/SLG).
   22. Juan V Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:19 AM (#2195046)
Regarding prOPS, and this is something I´ve wondered... what is the exact specification of the model? I just can´t explain why, but I feel it would work better if it just projected the "on contact" stuff. Maybe it already works this way...
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:46 AM (#2195062)
Basically, is it just that generic age related decline and regression to mean are sufficiently strong forces to push that through?

Regression definitely pays a part of it.

In Webb's case, his last three DIPS ERAs are 4.63, 3.82, and 3.33. If we move Webb to some other parks and teams:

STL - 17-7, 3.41
SD - 15-9, 3.45
OAK - 17-7, 3.42
DET - 16-8, 3.53

In essence, ZiPS doesn't dislike Webb - it dislikes the Diamondback defense and park. While Webb's not allowing many fly balls, the park still makes those very dangerous.

% of Flyballs that were Homeruns

Brandon Webb, 2004-2006: 16.0%
Eric Milton, 2004-2006: 12.7%

A few extra sinkers that don't sink a year are far riskier at Chase than in other parks and that downside risk is going to push Webb's mean projection lower.

There's also the issue of systems trying to project extreme players - Webb's extremely high grounder ratio makes him a more unique player and no matter how many workarounds you try, projection systems do a bad job with the oddballs.
   24. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 03, 2006 at 02:05 AM (#2195078)

Name          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Jackson      5.79   5  12  26  26   168.0  202  108  26   63   77
Owings       4.88   7  11  27  27   164.0  180   89  18   59   98
White        6.11   0   2  52   0    56.0   58   38   8   39   46

Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Richar      2B   .254  .309  .372 122 422  61 107 23  3  7  41  32  77  6  3
   25. Robert S. Posted: October 03, 2006 at 02:45 AM (#2195107)
Livan will do a lot better than that projection.

I'll take that bet.

In essence, ZiPS doesn't dislike Webb - it dislikes the Diamondback defense and park. While Webb's not allowing many fly balls, the park still makes those very dangerous.

Of the two, I'm far more worried about the infield defense than the park hurting Webb. I wouldn't put money on any given everyday Diamondback infielder being much beyond average next year, if that.
   26. 1k5v3L Posted: October 03, 2006 at 02:54 AM (#2195114)
Robert, I'm shocked you dislike Livan...
   27. 1k5v3L Posted: October 03, 2006 at 04:06 AM (#2195207)
Since this is the forward looking Dbacks thread de jour (the only one, in fact?)...

Josh Byrnes set to examine roster
   28. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 03, 2006 at 07:36 AM (#2195289)
Is "Gonzalez" Luis or Carlos?
   29. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: October 03, 2006 at 07:53 AM (#2195294)
Thanks for the explanation re:Webb, Dan.
   30. Azteca Posted: October 03, 2006 at 10:35 AM (#2195314)
Since there are a number of lower-level prospects on the list, how about Justin Upton? What would his zip look like? Pretty ugly, I imagine.
   31. JPWF13 Posted: October 03, 2006 at 11:27 AM (#2195322)
Since there are a number of lower-level prospects on the list, how about Justin Upton? What would his zip look like? Pretty ugly, I imagine.


Actually given his age and level and offensive environment Justin played very well
The Midwest League was an offense free zone this year: .253/.325/.365 and South Bend is a pitcher's park. At 18/19 (average age in league: 22) Justin comfortably outplayed his league average .263/.343/.413

By way of comparison- Carlos Gonzalez hitting .300/.356/.563 in Lancaster was not any better relative to league than Upton (Both had an OPS+ of 124- after taking park effects into account) and Carlos is 2 years older...
   32. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 03, 2006 at 11:38 AM (#2195324)
Name         P    AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 
Upton       CF   .229  .295  .356 113 424  70  97 21  0 11  45  37  95  9  5
   33. Azteca Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:34 PM (#2195394)
Thanks. By the way, Upton's IsoD & IsoP look tolerable. A far cry from Gonzalez's .250/.350/.450ish projection, but tolerable. It just seems that Upton, if in the majors, wouldn't get many of his smacks to fall for singles.
   34. AROM Posted: October 03, 2006 at 01:59 PM (#2195420)
A far cry from Gonzalez's .250/.350/.450ish projection, but tolerable.

I'm pretty sure that Gonzalez projection is Luis, not Carlos. Upton's is probably pretty good given his age.
   35. Kyle S Posted: October 03, 2006 at 02:25 PM (#2195448)
I remember watching Justin during spring training this year and he just looks like a big leaguer. He was very composed in the box but of course incredibly fast - just an all around great athlete. He seems to have some growing up to do but that's hardly unusual.

---

I don't think Props is biased due to speed - JC looked at that, and found that adding speed information doesn't help the regression at all. That said, something is going on - it always says guys who take pitches and hit lots of homers are unlucky - Giambi, Dunn, Andruw Jones, etc. Without checking, I'd imagine those guys have lower BABIP than you'd expect based on their GB/FB/LD/PO numbers (and conversely, the "lucky" guys have higher).

It's hard to quibble with the "lucky" guys though - Ichiro! regressed significantly after the season PRops called "very lucky", Jack Wilson became Jack Wilson again, etc. Anyone expect Freddy Sanchez to lead the league in hitting next year?
   36. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 03, 2006 at 03:03 PM (#2195512)
I don't expect Sanchez to lead the league in hitting, but there's reason to expect him to be a terrific hitter for average. After all, Sanchez was hitting 341/430/493 for Pawtucket in 2003 before an ankle injury ended his season early and ruined most of 2004. Sanchez didn't hit .344 by having a dead-fluke month or two and then just being OK the rest of the time; his lowest average month was .301.

Now, I wouldn't expect Sanchez to hit .344 and have an .850 OPS again, but I don't expect him to drop off to the degree Jack Wilson did.
   37. Azteca Posted: October 03, 2006 at 03:06 PM (#2195518)
I'm pretty sure that Gonzalez projection is Luis, not Carlos. Upton's is probably pretty good given his age.


Hmm, I suppose that's true. Didn't even think of Luis being part of the franchise any longer...haha. If so, Dan, could you throw out Carlos Gonzalez's zip for comparison's sake. Thanks...
   38. Astro-Bonilla Posted: October 05, 2006 at 09:11 PM (#2199674)
In other words, Luis Gonzalez and Shawn Green will not be missed at all.
   39. Astro-Bonilla Posted: October 05, 2006 at 09:16 PM (#2199686)
Now take a look at the luckiest performances: Ichiro, Cano, Reed Johnson, Freddy Sanchez, Carlos Guillen, Carlos Guillen again, Mora, Jack Wilson, Sizemore, etc... It's not a slam dunk or anything, and it could just be a fluke, but especially with slow guys, the effect seems pretty strong.

Actually, players with highly batting averaged based offenses (these players, as a group, fit that description better than they fit the description of "fast guys") have their value flucuate more from year to year than players who rely more on walks and home runs. Their variance is simply higher. Hence, we would expect a group like this to have the "luckiest performances" if we were using a good projection system.
   40. 1k5v3L Posted: October 14, 2006 at 12:06 AM (#2210499)
From AP:

D'backs, Reds swap minor leaguers
October 13, 2006

CINCINNATI (AP) -- The Reds got utility player Jerry Gil from Arizona on Friday as part of a swap of minor leaguers, sending right-hander Abe Woody to the Diamondbacks.

Gil, who turns 24 on Saturday, was added to the 40-man roster. He hit .256 in 128 games at Double-A and Triple-A last season with 27 homers. Gil has played 29 games in the majors, all for Arizona in 2004.

Gil made his major league debut against the Reds and singled off left-hander Brandon Claussen in his first plate appearance in 2004. His uncle, right-hander Josias Manzanillo, pitched for Cincinnati in 2003.

Woody, 23, was chosen by the Reds in the 31st round of the June amateur draft last year. He pitched 49 games in relief for Single-A Sarasota this season.


Abe Woody is a ground ball pitcher, 1.98 GO/AO this year in the FSL; he allowed only one hom run in 80+ innings. Someone probably would've taken Gil in the rule 5 for his glove; he can't walk the line but he can sure pick it with the glove. His hacktastic bat will be perfect in Cinci.

It's a miracle Josh Byrnes could get anyone for him, not to mention a pitching prospect.
   41. MM1f Posted: October 14, 2006 at 12:25 AM (#2210539)
How about projections for Greg Smith and Mark Reynolds?

Baseball cube messed up and put Greg Smiths 06 numbers on this guys page.
   42. 1k5v3L Posted: October 14, 2006 at 03:12 AM (#2210930)
Greg Smith had a ridiculously good half a season in Lancaster, any way you slice it. That being said, the home park in Lancaster is much easier on left handed pitchers as it favors left handed hitters and hurts right handed hitters. Thus, a lefty pitcher there, especially a polished one like Smith, has a great chance of preventing the opposing hitters from hitting home runs. Smith didn't pitch nearly as well in AA, but he's very polished and I think he's got a pretty good future.

Reynolds is playing in the AFL right now, and he's going to put some pretty good numbers there; hopefully the Dbacks will protect him this time (and avoid another Uggla incident). The only knock on Reyonlds is that he isn't outstanding defensively anywhere, but I wouldn't mind seeing the Dbacks stick him at 3B full time for a year or two just to put some pressure on Chad Tracy. Plus, Reynolds really need to improve his plate discipline next year. Otherwise he won't pan out.
   43. 1k5v3L Posted: October 14, 2006 at 03:13 AM (#2210934)
   44. PanRains Posted: October 14, 2006 at 11:43 AM (#2211195)
The Reds got utility player Jerry Gil from Arizona on Friday as part of a swap of minor leaguers, sending right-hander Abe Woody to the Diamondbacks.


So Levski. Would you say this trade gave you a woody?

/12 year old.
   45. 1k5v3L Posted: October 14, 2006 at 01:09 PM (#2211206)
To quote the football coach on those beer commercial, "Yes, you could say that".

But, '12 and 4 is pretty good'.
   46. 1k5v3L Posted: October 14, 2006 at 01:16 PM (#2211208)
Koplove becomes free agent

Relief pitcher Mike Koplove cleared waivers and has elected to become a free agent, ending his nine-year association with the Diamondbacks....

Reliever Jeff Bajenaru, 28, also cleared waivers and will become a minor league free agent on Sunday. The Diamondbacks would like to sign him to a minor league deal and keep him in the system.
   47. 1k5v3L Posted: November 01, 2006 at 06:12 AM (#2229405)
Hi Dan,

I'd like to second MM1F's question in post 41. Any way you could post the projections for Greg Smith and especially Mike Reynolds?

Reynolds had the (arguably) biggest breakout season of any of AZ's prospects; he hit well in high A, in AA, with the US team, and continues to rake in the AFL. The guy's a hitting machine.

Any chance you can share his 2007 projection with us?
   48. 1k5v3L Posted: November 01, 2006 at 06:13 AM (#2229407)
And, of course, I meant Mark Reynolds.
   49. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 01, 2006 at 01:51 PM (#2229478)
OK, adding Reynolds to my to do list.
   50. shoewizard Posted: November 05, 2006 at 07:25 AM (#2231821)
So, Dan...how's that to do list coming? ;)
   51. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2006 at 03:11 PM (#2232185)
4.21 ERA for Valverde?
could well be about double his actual number.

74 K, 62 IP - tough for any reliever to do that and have a crappy ERA (again).
   52. shoewizard Posted: November 20, 2006 at 07:07 AM (#2242032)
Dan, I don't mean to be a pest, but do you think you could give us that Mark Reynolds projection?

Thanks alot.
   53. 1k5v3L Posted: November 25, 2006 at 12:47 AM (#2245226)
.253/.312/.448 for Reynolds? Put him in LF, coach, he'll outhit Eric Byrnes. Reynolds is headed to AAA, where I'm hoping the Dbacks try him out at 3B first.

Of the other guys just added to the 40 man roster, only MacLane has a shot at the major league team next year, potentially as a lefty reliever.

Does anyone know much about Peguero? He's got a pretty low HR rate, yet isn't a groundball pitcher. Any word on his "stuff"?
   54. The Hop-Clop Goes On (psa1) Posted: November 25, 2006 at 01:17 AM (#2245232)
Delayed reaction here, but Jerry Gil has a good reputation for his glove?

Using Range, I've got Gil at -3 plays in 118 innings at short and -23 plays in 718 innings in center, which I believe makes him the worst centerfielder (plays above average per inning) in the minor leagues.

<a href=http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/430/430667dfs06.html>Here's the link</a> 


I mean, regress all you want, recognize the flaws in the system, park-adjust, whatever...that was a seriously bad defensive season.
   55. The Hop-Clop Goes On (psa1) Posted: November 25, 2006 at 01:19 AM (#2245233)
Wow. I am completely baffled by the tags BTF allows you to use. Don't bother trying to teach me how...I've been shown before and clearly it's not working.

Anyway, the link:

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/430/430667dfs06.html

And the numbers I mentioned in #56 are just for AA. He was bad in AAA, too.
   56. The Hop-Clop Goes On (psa1) Posted: November 25, 2006 at 01:36 AM (#2245243)
Duly noted. FWIW, every non-EE site I've ever worked with allows quote-less links.
   57. 1k5v3L Posted: November 25, 2006 at 01:42 AM (#2245246)
Well, the scouting report on Jerry Gil is strong arm and good range at SS. He's not a centerfielder. I personally have opined that Jerry Gil needed to be tried as a reliever long time ago, similarly to what AZ did with Aquino. But for one reason or another, Gil remained a ss. At this point of time, he's Cinci's problem. I don't see him having a major league career.
   58. The Hop-Clop Goes On (psa1) Posted: November 25, 2006 at 01:59 AM (#2245252)
It should be linked from most player's pages. It's not linked from Gil's page for reasons that are sort of complex...an unintended consequence of overoptimization. I'm also going to put links to defense pages from the games played by position pages as well, but that might not happen for a bit. For instance, it's the 9th link down for Jacoby Ellsbury.
   59. 1k5v3L Posted: November 25, 2006 at 02:53 AM (#2245285)
Psa1, aka Jeff (I assume),

The minorleaguesplits.com site totally rules. You are one of my internet gods. Thank you!

Btw, how does a Brewers fan end up in Astoria? That's about as improbable as a Dbacks fan ending up in New York, really. At least you've found a solid young team with upside to root for.
   60. The Hop-Clop Goes On (psa1) Posted: November 25, 2006 at 02:56 AM (#2245288)
You're welcome. I went to Wisconsin for grad school, and it was Bob Uecker on the radio or no baseball at all. Brewers it was. It helped that I wasn't far from Beloit, so I got to see Prince Fielder and the gang play there.
   61. 1k5v3L Posted: November 25, 2006 at 03:01 AM (#2245291)
Wisconsin-Madison for grad school, I assume? I really like Madison. A great city. Loved visiting there.

Questions: where do you get your defensive stats for minor league players from? And how comfortable are you with them?
   62. The Hop-Clop Goes On (psa1) Posted: November 25, 2006 at 03:10 AM (#2245297)
Yep, Madison. It is a great place to visit, no question :).

I have complete play-by-play logs for all 2006 minor leagues. However comfortable you are with Range for major leaguers...these are as legit as those. Line drives and fly balls aren't differentiated, so there's no problem with prospect bias for batted balls. Defensive stats are volatile, of course, so I'm not willing to declare beyond all doubt that Gil could never be an average defender, or that Ellsbury is a future gold-glover, but they generally agree with scouting assessments. I'm introducing all this stuff to the world in a couple of columns at Lederer's site next week with best-of and worst-of lists at each position.
   63. 1k5v3L Posted: November 25, 2006 at 04:52 AM (#2245351)
That's great stuff, Jeff. Thanks. Looking forward to your articles at Lederer's site. Please make sure to link them here.
   64. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 25, 2006 at 09:30 PM (#2245687)
Per Rotoworld:

The Diamondbacks have reportedly acquired Doug Davis, Dana Eveland and David Krynzel from the Brewers for Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas and Greg Aquino.
   65. Rob Base Posted: November 25, 2006 at 09:48 PM (#2245693)
Sweet. Does Doug Davis bump Livan out of the #2 starter job?
   66. 1k5v3L Posted: November 25, 2006 at 10:06 PM (#2245703)
Link to MLB.com announcing the trade

Nice deal for both teams, IMHO. From AZ's perspective, I really like it. What's NOT to like in there?
   67. The Hop-Clop Goes On (psa1) Posted: November 25, 2006 at 10:11 PM (#2245707)
I like it from the Brewers perspective...the wildcard is Eveland. He could be a lefty middle reliever for the rest of his days, or he could be the next Chris Capuano. If he ends up being more than a swingman/#5, this is a win for AZ in the long run, while the Brewers get some more potentially useful players without spending any money.
   68. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 25, 2006 at 10:17 PM (#2245711)
Seems like a good deal for the Diamondbacks. Davis isn't exactly going to be cheap but he's about a 100 ERA+ guy. Eveland has some nice minor league numbers but mediocre stuff a la Evan Maclane. He probably won't stick as a starter but he's a finesse lefty and sometimes those guys can surprise you. Krynzel isn't going to get playing time with all the young outfielders Arizona has.

I think Vargas will do better in Milwaukee than in Arizona. Estrada is a solid option as a number one catcher. Aquino is just a fungible reliever.
   69. qudjy1 Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:02 PM (#2261667)
Curious why Snyders projection for 2007 is a 717 OPS (mostly due to a 241BA)- when he posted a AVG .277 | HR 6 | RBI 32 | OBP .349 | SLG .424 in 184 ABs in 2006.
   70. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:06 PM (#2261671)
Curious why Snyders projection for 2007 is a 717 OPS (mostly due to a 241BA)- when he posted a AVG .277 | HR 6 | RBI 32 | OBP .349 | SLG .424 in 184 ABs in 2006.

Don't forget, in just under twice as many at-bats in 2005, he hit 202/297/301.
   71. qudjy1 Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:16 PM (#2261690)
So this projection places equal weight on a 24 year old catchers first full year in the majors as his second year? Isnt there a normal "learning curve" for players - esp catchers - that they get get better after a couple years of exp?

Im not being argumentative, im just trying to figure it all out..

Thanks!
   72. sardonic Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:19 PM (#2261694)
So this projection places equal weight on a 24 year old catchers first full year in the majors as his second year? Isnt there a normal "learning curve" for players - esp catchers - that they get get better after a couple years of exp?

Im not being argumentative, im just trying to figure it all out..

Thanks!


All other things being equal, it does weight more recent years much more than previous years, but it will also weight a year with more at bats much more heavily, because in most cases having more data gives you a better picture.

So in this case, it looks like the difference in abs is generally more predictive than a difference in years.
   73. qudjy1 Posted: December 14, 2006 at 11:38 PM (#2261718)
Interesting. I understand that 2005 was a 2X bigger sample, but i also think that more weight should be placed on more recent years, esp for a 25 Year Old (2nd full year).

I just think its a pretty low estimate - in my humble opinion. Time will tell...
   74. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 15, 2006 at 01:19 AM (#2261829)
I do give more weight to recent years, but it's not just that 2005 was worse, it was a lot worse. There's also good reason to be skeptical about the bounceback of Snyder's part-time 2006. Just look at Snyder's career (MLEs before his debut in 2004).

Year BABIP
2003 .242
2004 .284
2005 .258
2006 .341

ZiPS is giving him a .274 BABIP in 2007 which is probably more realistic - I like Snyder, but he's just not going to put the ball in play enough to sustain a .280 BA.
   75. qudjy1 Posted: December 15, 2006 at 06:49 PM (#2262348)
Fair enough Dan... I see your points, and i agree that .280 isnt realistic.

Gentlemans bet on a 730 OPS? I take the over?

Thanks for all of the good info!
   76. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 15, 2006 at 10:03 PM (#2262607)
<I>Gentlemans bet on a 730 OPS? I take the over?<?I>

Personally, I actually like Snyder more than ZiPS does - I'm just explaining why ZiPS is coming up with what its coming up with!
   77. shoewizard Posted: December 24, 2006 at 08:25 PM (#2268128)
Fanboyism aside, the D backs are really such a fascinating group of young players. I can't wait to see how it all plays out, who prgresses, who disapoints. I think this is the fork in the road for Snyder, and also Chad Tracy.
   78. 1k5v3L Posted: December 31, 2006 at 06:25 PM (#2271752)
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/index.php?sty=81508

The D-Backs have signed outfielder Dee Brown, righthander D.J. Carrasco and shortstop Ronnie Merrill Jr. as minor league free agents. Brown, a former No. 1 draft pick by Kansas City in 1996, hit .288 with 16 home runs and 80 RBIs in the Royals’ organization in 2006, with 95 of his 111 games at Double-A Wichita. Carrasco, a native of Safford, played with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of the Japanese Pacific League last season.


I'd love to see projections for Dee Brown and potentially for Carrasco. Is Brown good defensively?

Amd who's Ronnie Merrill Jr.?

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