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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, October 07, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves


Name       P   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Jones#    3b .286 .393 .536 116 399 68 114 26 1 24 77 70 74 4 1
McCann*    c   .315 .382 .542 120 406 63 128 26 0 22 72 44 47 2 1
LaRoche*    1b .279 .346 .535 139 445 71 124 34 1 26 78 46 97 0 1
Jones     cf .257 .352 .526 154 553 88 142 28 2 39 110 73 123 4 2
Diaz       lf .311 .348 .483 123 373 49 116 26 4 10 56 16 71 7 6
Renteria   ss .293 .357 .423 148 607 111 178 36 2 13 70 60 78 13 6
Langerhans*  lf .260 .355 .427 129 354 63 92 22 2 11 45 50 88 3 2
Giles     2b .275 .354 .414 135 510 80 140 34 2 11 60 59 96 11 4
Johnson*    lf .255 .340 .433 121 411 67 105 25 3 14 51 51 89 8 3
Ward*      1b .257 .315 .442 116 335 40 86 18 1 14 58 28 53 0 1
Francoeur   rf .268 .303 .469 155 623 91 167 30 4 29 97 26 115 4 5
Aybar#    3b .269 .339 .396 129 450 53 121 28 1 9 54 46 63 5 5
Thorman*    1b .262 .312 .426 128 446 51 117 24 2 15 59 31 83 3 2
Saltalamacch c   .242 .322 .410 109 368 49 89 21 1 13 45 41 72 1 1
Pena#      c   .284 .327 .352 99 324 32 92 17 1 1 29 20 29 3 3
Orr*      2b .287 .322 .356 109 289 43 83 9 4 1 24 12 42 12 8
Prado     2b .265 .313 .344 121 442 56 117 16 2 5 40 29 61 4 4
Strong     cf .254 .326 .322 96 323 44 82 12 2 2 28 33 58 11 5
Pratt     c   .227 .304 .348 57 141 13 32 5 0 4 17 15 45 0 0
McCarthy   rf .243 .298 .360 100 333 35 81 16 1 7 34 22 76 2 1
Escobar     ss .249 .328 .324 105 370 46 92 18 2 2 32 40 62 4 6
Jordan     lf .238 .291 .351 71 202 21 48 9 1 4 23 14 43 1 1
Mendez     c   .249 .282 .347 71 245 21 61 13 1 3 26   9 31 1 1
Crespo#    2b .227 .302 .317 113 379 49 86 15 2 5 32 40 80 11 6
Perez     c   .220 .277 .339 48 109   8 24 7 0 2 10   7 21 0 0
Esquivel   rf .225 .276 .356 99 351 37 79 19 0 9 40 22 93 4 4
Burrus     lf .217 .287 .334 102 383 63 83 16 1 9 50 34 129 12 6
Ryan*      rf .227 .281 .334 104 308 29 70 13 1 6 31 23 68 2 3
Joseph     cf .239 .275 .308 122 422 45 101 14 3 3 36 19 108 8 7
Hernandez#  ss .236 .277 .294 123 436 48 103 13 3 2 31 23 50 3 3
Pena       ss .228 .258 .315 128 448 49 102 19 1 6 34 15 104 16 12
Andrus     ss .218 .261 .288 111 417 63 91 19 2 2 31 23 93 14 11
Pitchers       .155 .186 .181   0 581 29 90 9 3 0 32 21 214 0 1

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Jeff Francoeur
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .289 .325 .533 162 672 117 194 36 7 38 130 29 104 6 5
Mean         .268 .303 .469 155 623 91 167 30 4 29 97 26 115 4 5
Pessimistic (15%) .248 .283 .410 144 580 66 144 25 3 21 76 21 138 4 7

Name       ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Smoltz     3.72 14   8 32 32   218.0 209   90 22   49 176
Wickman     3.81   3   2 55   0   52.0   51   22   5   17   37
Baez       4.09   6   4 61   0   66.0   62   30   5   26   44
Almanzar   4.20   4   4 55   0   60.0   59   28   7   18   38
James*    4.20   9   8 32 26   152.0 144   71 22   44 122
Startup*    4.29   5   5 42   0   63.0   65   30   7   17   45
Reitsma     4.29   4   4 65   0   65.0   72   31   6   15   39
Hudson     4.46 12 11 31 31   202.0 208 100 20   68 125
Thomson     4.47   7   7 24 23   137.0 146   68 14   41   81
Boyer     4.55   5   6 56   8   91.0   94   46   9   34   62
Villarreal   4.56   4   4 49   5   75.0   77   38 11   21   45
Paronto     4.68   4   3 64   0   73.0   74   38   8   29   49
Hampton*    4.79   7   9 23 23   139.0 151   74 13   52   61
Cormier     4.85   6   9 43 15   130.0 139   70 14   49   82
Franklin*  4.89   2   3 48   2   57.0   55   31   8   25   48
McBride*    4.93   3   4 65   3   73.0   72   40   8   37   61
Foster*    5.04   2   4 58   0   50.0   50   28   8   22   42
Barry     5.12   4   6 38 12   102.0 102   58 12   55   72
Ramirez*    5.16   6   9 25 24   143.0 158   82 21   50   60
Yates     5.22   3   6 57   3   69.0   66   40   8   43   59
Davies     5.40   5 10 25 22   120.0 129   72 17   55   87
Devine     5.56   2   3 29   1   34.0   31   21   5   24   38
Ascanio     5.64   2   5 28   6   67.0   73   42   7   38   36
Ray       5.68   1   2 59   0   57.0   59   36   8   34   40
O’Connor*  5.70   6 12 29 23   150.0 168   95 16   82   68
Shiell     5.82   2   6 13 12   68.0   79   44 11   29   41
Stockman   5.91   1   4 38   8   64.0   62   42   7   49   48
Lerew     5.91   4 11 29 25   140.0 157   92 25   64   91
Moylan     6.00   2   6 48   0   72.0   75   48   8   51   57
Total     4.86 134 176 304 304 2789.0 2887 1507 332 1138 1854

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Tim Hudson
              ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.62 16   7 31 31   209.0 199   84 15   55 138
Mean           4.46 12 11 31 31   202.0 208 100 20   68 125
Pessimistic (15%)  5.35   9 14 31 31   195.0 221 116 26   76 109

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 07, 2006 at 12:05 AM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Jim Wisinski Posted: October 07, 2006 at 01:57 AM (#2201572)
Dan, will you be making a post with the park factors for the major league stadiums?
   2. Sparkles Peterson Posted: October 07, 2006 at 01:59 AM (#2201577)
So when does McCann get moved off catcher, and is he going to get even better when freed from the tools of ignorance?
   3. 1k5v3L Posted: October 07, 2006 at 02:06 AM (#2201601)
Frenchy will come very close to his "optimistic" projection next year.

***

The Braves need to move SaltyDog to 1B, not McCann...
   4. ¬†Hey Gurl Posted: October 07, 2006 at 02:55 AM (#2201744)
Much as I appreciate these projections, I sure wish Dan didn't do them in the same order every year. Would be nice to have the Jays up first for a change. :)
   5. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: October 07, 2006 at 03:06 AM (#2201771)
Mccann is all that kept me alive this summer.
   6. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: October 07, 2006 at 05:17 AM (#2201888)
I haven't heard anything much about McCann this year, despite Mauer making it the Year of the Catcher. Those are legitimate MVP-candidate numbers.
   7. DCW3 Posted: October 07, 2006 at 08:38 AM (#2201921)
I haven't heard anything much about McCann this year, despite Mauer making it the Year of the Catcher. Those are legitimate MVP-candidate numbers.

McCann had a higher OPS+ than Mauer this year, 146 to 144. Now, Mauer was the more valuable offensive player, since he had 116 more PAs, but a lot of that was due to Mauer being able to spell at DH: McCann actually caught four *more* games than Mauer did. I had McCann fifth on my NL MVP ballot at the IBAs.
   8. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: October 07, 2006 at 11:24 AM (#2201936)
####### eric byrnes.
   9. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: October 07, 2006 at 05:41 PM (#2202091)
I'll believe those 399 ABs when I see them.
   10. Sam M. Posted: October 07, 2006 at 06:03 PM (#2202111)
I had McCann fifth on my NL MVP ballot at the IBAs.

That is a very, very hard call to justify, given that he got under 500 PAs. I might buy McCann as one of the five best players in the league on a per/PA basis, but was he one of the five most valuable, given that "value" has to take into account how much he played?

Pujols, Howard, Beltran, Berkman, Cabrera, Reyes . . . . They all played extremely well, and a lot more than McCann did.

Don't get me wrong; I love McCann as much as I can love any Brave. But 5th in the MVP voting in the NL? Hard to justify . . . .
   11. DCW3 Posted: October 07, 2006 at 10:31 PM (#2202696)
That is a very, very hard call to justify, given that he got under 500 PAs. I might buy McCann as one of the five best players in the league on a per/PA basis, but was he one of the five most valuable, given that "value" has to take into account how much he played?

For awards like this, I probably put less emphasis on playing time than most people do--I'd rather reward real greatness over a shorter period of time than very-goodness over a somewhat longer stretch. McCann was only eleventh in the league in VORP, for example--only four runs out of eighth, though--but that's a stat, like all those that count from replacement level, that puts a lot of emphasis on playing time, more than I would. He was also in the league's top five in RCAP.
   12. bunyon Posted: October 07, 2006 at 10:42 PM (#2202735)
Geez, Sam. Are the youngsters (McCann, Wright, Reyes) leading a reconciliation? Is hatred between Met and Brave to die out as we celebrate our respective youngsters?

Is it just that we aren't both in the playoffs?
   13. DCW3 Posted: October 07, 2006 at 10:45 PM (#2202744)
Let me put it this way: maybe it is a stretch to put McCann in the NL's top five. But I think it's at least as justified as picking Mauer as the #1 player in the AL, and he's going to get a lot of votes in the IBA.
   14. Azteca Posted: October 09, 2006 at 04:34 PM (#2204735)
That's a fine offensive team. I'm surprised at reports that the Braves are shopping Giles. Yes, he's getting expensive, but who would replace him?
   15. Honkie Kong Posted: October 09, 2006 at 04:53 PM (#2204761)
They want to replace him with a combination of Aybar/prado..
While Giles is one of my favorite players, it makes sense at some level..
He can't bat in his fav 2-hole in the atlanta lineup anymore. And he is going to get expensive
   16. Gaylord Perry the Platypus (oi!) Posted: October 09, 2006 at 05:04 PM (#2204781)
It's highly unlikely that Giles will be around after 2007, when he becomes a free agent. So the Braves are exploring trade possibilities. Besides the significant dropoff in Giles's numbers (especially power) this season, there's the usual early fades for second basemen in general.

They're likely doing the same thing with Andruw, although I think the odds are much higher that they resign Andruw (than that they resign Giles - I think odds are better than 50-50 that Andruw's somewhere else in 2008).
   17. Mike Webber Posted: October 09, 2006 at 06:12 PM (#2204872)
From Roto world:
# Adam LaRoche missed the season finale for the Braves, but whatever you do, don't miss his second half when creating your cheat sheets next season: 19 homers, .655 slugging. He's arrived.


I think you may be a little too low also Dan. What would the Zips spit out without his 200/294/453 in 75 ABs April?
   18. Honkie Kong Posted: October 09, 2006 at 07:27 PM (#2204949)
I think you may be a little too low also Dan. What would the Zips spit out without his 200/294/453 in 75 ABs April?

I am a bit skeptical still. He had a big second half 2 years ago, before nosediving the next season. Maybe he is a Derrek Lee type of player, who needs 2 months before he gets going. I will believe he can perform at that level over a full year, when he finally does it. 75 ABs in April are still 75 meaningful ABs. He wasn't carrying any injury that was announced..
OTOH He does credit his second half resurgence to the medication for ADD he shifted to midway through the season, so he might have turned the corner!
   19. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: October 09, 2006 at 07:31 PM (#2204953)
Dan, when the time comes, would you mind adding CF Gregor Blanco. He's got little power (which may kill him going forward), but gets on base, defends nicely, and is still pretty young.
   20. Honkie Kong Posted: October 09, 2006 at 07:46 PM (#2204966)
Dan, when the time comes, would you mind adding CF Gregor Blanco. He's got little power (which may kill him going forward), but gets on base, defends nicely, and is still pretty young.

He seems to have "old player" skills. and his stolen base totals are a bit puzzling and underwhelming. and little power is an exaggeration IMO.
Any similar players anyone know of who has had success at the major leagues? singles hitter, lots of walks in minors and no speed on the bases. But very good strike zone control.
stats look like Langerhans with no power.
   21. flournoy Posted: October 09, 2006 at 08:48 PM (#2205054)
OTOH He does credit his second half resurgence to the medication for ADD he shifted to midway through the season, so he might have turned the corner!


Actually, he credits playing everyday much more than he credits medication.
   22. ronyconrad Posted: March 13, 2010 at 09:40 AM (#3478438)
   23. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: March 20, 2010 at 05:12 PM (#3482784)
WTF?
   24. ntr Jeff Francoeur Posted: March 20, 2010 at 06:25 PM (#3482818)
You mean Andruw? Nah, dude, it's not that, trust me...

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