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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds

Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Adam Dunn*          lf 27 .259 .382 .536 160 556 103 144 32 1 40 98 107 170 4 1
Ken Griffey Jr. *      cf 37 .270 .342 .506 111 423 60 114 22 0 26 77 47 86 0 0
Edwin Encarnacion     3b 24 .275 .351 .489 132 454 66 125 37 0 20 72 46 95 6 3
Chris Denorfia       cf 26 .287 .353 .440 129 418 64 120 22 3 12 51 41 82 8 3
Rich Aurilia         ss 35 .280 .336 .465 110 389 50 109 22 1 16 62 33 56 1 0
Dave Ross           c   30 .234 .326 .482 77 197 24 46 11 1 12 37 25 64 0 0
Scott Hatteberg*      1b 37 .270 .360 .398 140 460 55 124 26 0 11 62 63 50 1 1
Joey Votto*          1b 23 .259 .334 .451 132 474 76 123 32 1 19 56 53 110 10 5
Javier Valentin#      c   31 .256 .326 .446 83 195 26 50 8 1 9 33 19 34 0 0
Ryan Freel           cf 31 .265 .361 .376 129 441 69 117 25 3 6 26 58 89 30 9
Brendan Harris       3b 26 .258 .318 .431 127 418 64 108 25 1 15 61 32 79 3 2
Jason LaRue         c   33 .234 .331 .411 101 316 33 74 18 1 12 48 32 93 0 1
Jesse Gutierrez       1b 29 .256 .324 .402 114 383 44 98 24 1 10 51 35 73 0 0
Brandon Phillips       2b 26 .266 .320 .405 138 511 71 136 27 1 14 56 36 81 17 4
Earl Snyder         3b 31 .238 .291 .441 131 474 64 113 28 1 22 73 33 118 1 0
Noochie Varner       lf 26 .256 .314 .368 131 429 58 110 26 2 6 42 33 92 5 3
Todd Hollandsworth*    lf 34 .247 .296 .407 99 231 25 57 14 1 7 34 16 80 1 3
Norris Hopper         lf 28 .286 .330 .329 119 416 51 119 11 2 1 31 24 40 15 7
Jay Bruce*          rf 20 .236 .289 .403 117 419 59 99 33 2 11 45 29 113 11 7
Royce Clayton         ss 37 .261 .314 .347 140 499 54 130 28 3 3 41 38 108 9 4
Javon Moran         cf 24 .284 .316 .356 74 278 36 79 10 2 2 14 11 40 13 9
Brandon Watson*      cf 25 .282 .324 .337 124 439 68 124 14 2 2 28 24 52 19 13
Ray Olmedo#          ss 26 .256 .311 .343 111 344 40 88 17 2 3 23 27 67 9 4
Eric Crozier*        rf 28 .208 .281 .383 49 154 17 32 13 1 4 17 15 64 2 1
Matt Kata#          rf 29 .243 .287 .368 102 296 34 72 15 2 6 24 14 51 3 3
DeWayne Wise*        cf 29 .233 .280 .380 99 292 36 68 13 3 8 31 16 58 8 4
Jerry Gil           ss 24 .226 .256 .415 113 424 62 96 20 3 18 61 14 105 5 5
William Bergolla       2b 24 .258 .292 .330 114 415 48 107 20 2 2 28 18 50 10 5
Juan Castro         ss 35 .240 .277 .351 104 262 23 63 15 1 4 28 11 58 1 1
Ryan Jorgensen       c   28 .194 .276 .327 67 196 20 38 8 0 6 21 20 61 0 0
Andy Machado#        ss 26 .201 .288 .303 109 333 39 67 15 2 5 24 39 96 5 5
Marland Williams       cf 26 .203 .262 .314 106 354 49 72 13 4 6 26 25 113 27 14
Miguel Perez         c   23 .217 .256 .275 108 374 36 81 13 0 3 25 15 84 3 1

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Adam Dunn
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .279 .406 .600 162 563 118 157 38 1 47 114 115 162 6 0
Mean         .259 .382 .536 160 556 103 144 32 1 40 98 107 170 4 1
Pessimistic (15%) .234 .353 .464 125 435 70 102 22 0 26 66 78 148 2 1

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Bronson Arroyo         30   3.86 13 10 34 32   212.0 209   91 28   59 155
Aaron Harang         29   4.03 14 10 33 33   210.0 214   94 27   53 179
Todd Coffey           26   4.04   5   4 70   0   69.0   74   31   7   17   49
Gary Majewski         27   4.21   4   4 69   1   77.0   80   36   4   27   46
Jon Coutlangus*        26   4.31   2   2 51   0   71.0   69   34   5   31   52
Scott Schoeneweis*      33   4.41   3   3 73   0   51.0   50   25   3   27   35
Homer Bailey         21   4.50   7   8 27 24   126.0 120   63 15   66 110
Bill Bray*          24   4.79   3   3 42   0   47.0   50   25   6   16   38
Brian Shackelford*      30   4.81   2   3 62   0   58.0   59   31   6   30   42
Jason Standridge       28   4.84   4   5 45 10   106.0 114   57 11   47   67
Rheal Cormier*        40   4.89   3   3 68   0   57.0   61   31   7   20   31
Matt Belisle         27   4.95   5   6 42 13   109.0 120   60 15   34   73
Eric Milton*          31   4.96   9 11 31 31   178.0 192   98 30   54 121
Kyle Lohse           28   4.96   9 11 35 27   167.0 197   92 23   55   98
Elizardo Ramirez       24   4.97   6   8 26 23   134.0 156   74 23   29   83
Eddie Guardado*        36   5.00   2   2 48   0   45.0   46   25   9   15   44
Kent Mercker*        39   5.06   1   2 63   0   48.0   49   27   8   20   37
Jason Johnson         33   5.31   8 13 31 30   178.0 210 105 25   55   96
Brandon Claussen*      28   5.31   7 12 26 26   144.0 154   85 24   57 113
David Weathers         37   5.35   4   6 66   0   69.0   70   41 11   32   51
Steve Kelly           27   5.35   7 12 25 24   143.0 161   85 21   58   86
Paul Wilson           34   5.43   4   8 20 20   126.0 143   76 21   45   79
Scott Chiasson         29   5.63   1   3 47   0   48.0   50   30   8   27   38
Mike Gosling*        26   5.68   5   9 28 23   133.0 149   84 24   56   94
Ryan Franklin         34   5.70   6 12 41 22   161.0 188 102 29   57   84
Phil Dumatrait*        25   5.72   6 12 26 25   140.0 156   89 20   69   91
Joe Mays             31   5.73   5 10 27 23   135.0 169   86 22   44   64
Jake Robbins         31   5.82   2   5 49   1   65.0   72   42   9   38   43
Josh Hall           26   5.82   5 12 26 26   153.0 184   99 28   56   81
Tyler Pelland*        23   6.33   4 10 29 24   135.0 154   95 19   91   78
Tim Bausher           28   6.39   2   5 37   2   69.0   78   49 12   42   43
Travis Wood*          20   6.70   3 12 27 27   137.0 157 102 30   76   88
Chad Bentz*          27   9.42   1   5 41   2   43.0   54   45 15   34   31
Total                 5.21 162 241 469 469 3644.0 4009 2109 545 1437 2420

Player Spotlight (Beta) -  Homer Bailey
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.87   9   7 29 27 142 126   61 14   69 130
Mean           4.50   7   8 27 24 126 120   63 15   66 110
Pessimistic (15%)  5.47   4   8 22 20 102 106   62 16   58   89

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 25, 2006 at 03:43 PM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. G A Delgado Posted: October 25, 2006 at 05:24 PM (#2224131)
ZiPS really likes Denorfia.

I remember when Junior was the greatest player playing the game...
   2. flournoy Posted: October 25, 2006 at 05:38 PM (#2224143)
Is Homer Bailey expected to be a rotation regular in 2007?
   3. TDF, situational idiot Posted: October 25, 2006 at 06:37 PM (#2224178)
At least it looks like they're finally going to get rid of that big drag on the team, Dunn.
   4. Cabbage Posted: October 25, 2006 at 06:59 PM (#2224197)
What ever happened to ryan wagner?
   5. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 25, 2006 at 07:06 PM (#2224201)
He got traded to Washington in the Kearns-Lopez giveaway.

If the Reds try to deal a catcher, which one should they shop?
   6. 44magnum Posted: October 25, 2006 at 07:11 PM (#2224208)
Larue, but I dont know how much of a market there is for .180 hitters who make $5M.
   7. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 25, 2006 at 07:24 PM (#2224220)
"I dont know how much of a market there is for .180 hitters who make $5M."

Which is why I wondered whether it'd make more sense to keep LaRue as the backup and try to flip Ross or Valentin for something of actual value.
   8. TDF, situational idiot Posted: October 25, 2006 at 07:39 PM (#2224236)
If the Reds try to deal a catcher, which one should they shop?

Do you mean which one can they shop?

Ross. As noted, LaRue is untradeable; Valentin, with that fat new contract ($1.25M for a crappy lefty PH) is nearly so. At least with Ross, they could make some team believe he'll repeat this year's numbers, and get something of value.
   9. Vida Blew Over the Legal Limit Posted: October 25, 2006 at 10:19 PM (#2224411)
good to see Noochie's going to get a shot
   10. Walt Davis Posted: October 26, 2006 at 05:58 AM (#2224715)
They should be able to shop any of those Cs -- they're all perfectly decent and unspectacular. They also won't get much in return -- they're perfectly decent and unspectacular. I'd be happy to have Valentin on my team anyday. Others are completely correct that LaRue's contract makes him the hardest to move.

That Aurilia projection looks pretty nice too for a bench player.

But Milton giving up just 30 HR in about 180 IP??? ZIPS is on crack!!
   11. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 26, 2006 at 12:17 PM (#2224780)
Joey Votto is ready right now and if the Reds front office had a clue they would clear a path for the lad to play. It's unfortunate that the two of best offensive players will be oafish lugs who are incapable of playing even adequate defense.

I should amend that last sentence. Adam Dunn is CAPABLE of playing defense. The guy just won't bother. This is an instance where a good, swift kick in the *ss is required from a manager. Dunn needs to lose 25 pounds and practice taking fly balls. Three years ago Dunn was an ok outfielder. Now he's just a lazy goof-off who talks about fantasy football whenever anyone asks him a question.

If ANYONE in this community professes an admiration for Dunn they need to be sat down and shown video of Reds games from 2005 and 2006. If you are a baseball FAN you cannot watch this player and come away with a positive feeling. He's a disgrace.

It's not that he clearly doesn't like baseball. (Dunn regularly states he would have preferred to be in the NFL but knew MLB was the better chance to succeed and make more money) It's not that he strikes out a lot. It's not that he loafs to first base on anything not a hit. It's not that he lumbers around in left field like a steer with a bee sting.

It's that he simply doesn't BOTHER. With ANYTHING.

He takes the field, fiddles around for 3 hours or so, and then heads off to watch bass fishing on ESPN2.

I know some here have remarked how much they enjoy Dunn's comments as they seem to reflect some carefree approach to the game which is refreshing. I appreciate the need to be an individual as much as anyone, but there is a big difference to having a different perspective toward one's profession and being completely disinterested in anything.

Adam Dunn is rapidly becoming my least favorite ballplayer. Like Dave Kingman he is taking a world of talent and p*ssing it away. Kingman at least had the excuse of becoming embittered by how he was treated by his first employer (the Giants) and deciding to take out his anger in a personal mission to simply focus on hitting a ball as far as possible at the expense of everything else. Kingman was a loser but he at least kept himself in shape and while on the field tried to excel at the one thing he had decided was important.

Dunn cares about NOTHING. Absolutely NOTHING.

Again, he either needs a two by four across the forehead as a wake up call or the Reds need to dump his fat *ss. 'Cause no team with this 270 lbs of deadweight is ever going to do anything worth a d*mn.
   12. Frisco Cali Posted: October 26, 2006 at 09:37 PM (#2225282)
Dunn cares about NOTHING. Absolutely NOTHING

Sounds to me that he cares about fantasy football and bass fishing. Those are legitimate interests, I suppose.

I haven't seen him play recently. If he hangs out in the OF like you are saying, it sounds like a Jim Leyland style asskicking is in order.
   13. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: October 26, 2006 at 10:13 PM (#2225294)
So Dunn should play 1B? Or DH in the AL?
   14. The Robby Hammock District (Dan Lee) Posted: October 27, 2006 at 12:17 AM (#2225370)
So Dunn should play 1B? Or DH in the AL?

Either or. He really is a liability in the outfield...and Harvey's right, when Dunn's in shape he's a pretty athletic guy who appears to have the physical tools to play a decent left field.

Of course, Dunn at first base made more sense before the Reds traded Pena for Arroyo, Kearns et al for a bag of magic beans, and inexplicably fell in love with Scott Hatteberg.
   15. JPWF13 Posted: October 27, 2006 at 12:31 AM (#2225380)
Adam Dunn is rapidly becoming my least favorite ballplayer. Like Dave Kingman he is taking a world of talent and p*ssing it away.


Actually your description of Dunn's atttude towards the game seems more like another former Met- Kevin McReynolds
   16. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 27, 2006 at 03:03 AM (#2225695)
Actually, having watched Adam play first base does no good because he takes no additional interest in the game. So you end up weakening the overall defense even further. The Reds have recognized this much which is why Dunn stays in left. It's where his harm to the defense can be contained, at least to some degree.

After reading his comments, listening to his interviews, and watching his career I now completely believe Dunn when he states he simply doesn't find baseball interesting. He does it because he can and make lots of money doing it. About the only time Dunn gets excited is when he is involved in a collision at home plate where he can re-live the glory days of his collegiate football career.

If you DH this young man I guarantee he will balloon past three bills before you can mutter "David Wells". And once he gets injured instead of having someone diligently working to get back on the field you will experience some indifferent fella munching on bon-bons in the trainer's room.

Dunn is a hard case. It will take a SERIOUS intervention to get anything of substance from him. On his current course he will be out of baseball by age 30 either because he finally decides he has enough money to finance a lifetime of riverboat excursions or gets hurt and never bothers to try and come back.
   17. Xander Posted: October 27, 2006 at 03:25 AM (#2225762)
Dunn gets excited is when he is involved in a collision at home plate where he can re-live the glory days of his collegiate football career.

If I knew where the strike through function went I would cross out "re-live" and type "live" and then type "Fixed" in the body. But I don't know where it went.
   18. Azteca Posted: October 27, 2006 at 02:28 PM (#2226161)
No doubt, Dunn had a tough final two months: .700 ops in August, and .598 in September. I haven't read about the situation, HWBs, but this may have something to do with the Kearns trade. Weren't those two friends?

Kriskey will probably trade Dunn away this winter, anyway; it's easy to wear out one's welcome by hitting so poorly during a pennant-run. For Cincy this may make sense as, other than Dunn, Griffey & LaRue on the offensive side of things, the Reds don't have too much money tied up; sending Dunn and his +$10m for each of the next two years may give the team some flexibility.
   19. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 27, 2006 at 03:17 PM (#2226203)
Azteca:

Adam started letting himself go in late 2004. Yes, he was friends with Kearns. And it was common knowledge in the NL Central that the Reds were concerned that the two together was not a good mix. Dunn's waistline had expanded and Austin soon followed with his own "Belly Up To The Buffet" conditioning program.

Narron has his positives but one drawback is that the knows a number of these guys from their time in the minors. And part of me suspects that they are more friends then manager/employee. As in, "Man, can you believe we all made it here?".

Sweet Lou is likely a bad fit with the Cubs but would have made a decent fit with the Reds. This squad needs about five guys hauled into the manager's office by their ear and told the facts of life.

"Ken, you are going to play right field"

"Adam, lose 25 pounds"

"Ryan, dry yourself out and be in bed two hours after the game is over"

"Harang, get into a conditioning program"

"Brandon, quit being such a crybaby"

These guys need to go away:

Juan, Jason, and Kyle.
   20. robinred Posted: October 28, 2006 at 09:30 PM (#2227403)
While I would not be as harsh about it as HW, I agree that Dunn is lazy. He looks soft and overweight to me--like Junior--whom I still love, of course--has since he hit age 30. I still do not favor trading Dunn just to get rid of him, however. To channel Billy Martin for a moment, I prefer a lazy race horse to a hustling mule.

And I agree that a kickass mgr. might do this team some good.

when Dunn's in shape he's a pretty athletic guy who appears to have the physical tools to play a decent left field.

Given his athletic past, I think it is clear this is the case.
   21. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 28, 2006 at 09:36 PM (#2227406)
Joey Votto is ready right now and if the Reds front office had a clue they would clear a path for the lad to play.


Votto improved over the course of the season, but I think he probably needs AAA time. He still has trouble on the inner half of the plate. For those who are interested, he's playing in the Dominican this winter, at Escogido.

-- MWE
   22. Darren Posted: October 28, 2006 at 10:10 PM (#2227418)
"Harang, get into a conditioning program"

Hard to argue with the results from Harang, though, isn't it? Nice trade for Bowden, BTW.
   23. Darren Posted: October 28, 2006 at 10:14 PM (#2227419)
And to add a few:

"Jr., ensconce yourself in bubblewrap. It's socially acceptable."

"Coutlangus, change that name, it's distracting."

"Denorfria, I want you to cut down from 1/2 time on Law and Order to no time. You need to work on baseball, and your character's just getting too weird."
   24. The Adam Dunn Effort #44 Posted: October 30, 2006 at 05:22 PM (#2228051)
Harveys, I couldn't have said it better - I lived in Cinci in 04 and 05 - saw what you describe on a daily basis. Over on the dodger thoughts blog, for a couple of years, the locals cheer on rumors of LA trading for Dunn. The Dunn hysteria will pick up soon, it's about that time in LA. If the Reds were Machiavellian enough, they would pick the Dodgers pocket and dump him over there.
   25. robinred Posted: October 31, 2006 at 10:18 PM (#2229174)
Harveys, I couldn't have said it better - I lived in Cinci in 04 and 05 - saw what you describe on a daily basis. Over on the dodger thoughts blog, for a couple of years, the locals cheer on rumors of LA trading for Dunn. The Dunn hysteria will pick up soon, it's about that time in LA. If the Reds were Machiavellian enough, they would pick the Dodgers pocket and dump him over there.

Between living in SD and working nights, I only see the Reds play maybe 15 times a year. That said, I think it is important to separate "how much the guy irritates me" from "how much he hurts/helps the team."

Dunn may be as big of a problem as you guys say, but I heard a lot of attitude stuff about Kearns, and, to a lesser extent, Lopez as well, and the team didn't do better after they left. And, they were basically replaced by Ryan SuperAttitudeBoy Freel and Royce VeteranLeader Clayton.

I think, though, Krivsky will pretty much dump Dunn for a pitcher and mediocre OF, so I guess I hope on some level Borchard and HW are right.

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