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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
2007 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Adam Dunn* lf 27 .259 .382 .536 160 556 103 144 32 1 40 98 107 170 4 1
Ken Griffey Jr. * cf 37 .270 .342 .506 111 423 60 114 22 0 26 77 47 86 0 0
Edwin Encarnacion 3b 24 .275 .351 .489 132 454 66 125 37 0 20 72 46 95 6 3
Chris Denorfia cf 26 .287 .353 .440 129 418 64 120 22 3 12 51 41 82 8 3
Rich Aurilia ss 35 .280 .336 .465 110 389 50 109 22 1 16 62 33 56 1 0
Dave Ross c 30 .234 .326 .482 77 197 24 46 11 1 12 37 25 64 0 0
Scott Hatteberg* 1b 37 .270 .360 .398 140 460 55 124 26 0 11 62 63 50 1 1
Joey Votto* 1b 23 .259 .334 .451 132 474 76 123 32 1 19 56 53 110 10 5
Javier Valentin# c 31 .256 .326 .446 83 195 26 50 8 1 9 33 19 34 0 0
Ryan Freel cf 31 .265 .361 .376 129 441 69 117 25 3 6 26 58 89 30 9
Brendan Harris 3b 26 .258 .318 .431 127 418 64 108 25 1 15 61 32 79 3 2
Jason LaRue c 33 .234 .331 .411 101 316 33 74 18 1 12 48 32 93 0 1
Jesse Gutierrez 1b 29 .256 .324 .402 114 383 44 98 24 1 10 51 35 73 0 0
Brandon Phillips 2b 26 .266 .320 .405 138 511 71 136 27 1 14 56 36 81 17 4
Earl Snyder 3b 31 .238 .291 .441 131 474 64 113 28 1 22 73 33 118 1 0
Noochie Varner lf 26 .256 .314 .368 131 429 58 110 26 2 6 42 33 92 5 3
Todd Hollandsworth* lf 34 .247 .296 .407 99 231 25 57 14 1 7 34 16 80 1 3
Norris Hopper lf 28 .286 .330 .329 119 416 51 119 11 2 1 31 24 40 15 7
Jay Bruce* rf 20 .236 .289 .403 117 419 59 99 33 2 11 45 29 113 11 7
Royce Clayton ss 37 .261 .314 .347 140 499 54 130 28 3 3 41 38 108 9 4
Javon Moran cf 24 .284 .316 .356 74 278 36 79 10 2 2 14 11 40 13 9
Brandon Watson* cf 25 .282 .324 .337 124 439 68 124 14 2 2 28 24 52 19 13
Ray Olmedo# ss 26 .256 .311 .343 111 344 40 88 17 2 3 23 27 67 9 4
Eric Crozier* rf 28 .208 .281 .383 49 154 17 32 13 1 4 17 15 64 2 1
Matt Kata# rf 29 .243 .287 .368 102 296 34 72 15 2 6 24 14 51 3 3
DeWayne Wise* cf 29 .233 .280 .380 99 292 36 68 13 3 8 31 16 58 8 4
Jerry Gil ss 24 .226 .256 .415 113 424 62 96 20 3 18 61 14 105 5 5
William Bergolla 2b 24 .258 .292 .330 114 415 48 107 20 2 2 28 18 50 10 5
Juan Castro ss 35 .240 .277 .351 104 262 23 63 15 1 4 28 11 58 1 1
Ryan Jorgensen c 28 .194 .276 .327 67 196 20 38 8 0 6 21 20 61 0 0
Andy Machado# ss 26 .201 .288 .303 109 333 39 67 15 2 5 24 39 96 5 5
Marland Williams cf 26 .203 .262 .314 106 354 49 72 13 4 6 26 25 113 27 14
Miguel Perez c 23 .217 .256 .275 108 374 36 81 13 0 3 25 15 84 3 1
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Adam Dunn
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .279 .406 .600 162 563 118 157 38 1 47 114 115 162 6 0
Mean .259 .382 .536 160 556 103 144 32 1 40 98 107 170 4 1
Pessimistic (15%) .234 .353 .464 125 435 70 102 22 0 26 66 78 148 2 1
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Bronson Arroyo 30 3.86 13 10 34 32 212.0 209 91 28 59 155
Aaron Harang 29 4.03 14 10 33 33 210.0 214 94 27 53 179
Todd Coffey 26 4.04 5 4 70 0 69.0 74 31 7 17 49
Gary Majewski 27 4.21 4 4 69 1 77.0 80 36 4 27 46
Jon Coutlangus* 26 4.31 2 2 51 0 71.0 69 34 5 31 52
Scott Schoeneweis* 33 4.41 3 3 73 0 51.0 50 25 3 27 35
Homer Bailey 21 4.50 7 8 27 24 126.0 120 63 15 66 110
Bill Bray* 24 4.79 3 3 42 0 47.0 50 25 6 16 38
Brian Shackelford* 30 4.81 2 3 62 0 58.0 59 31 6 30 42
Jason Standridge 28 4.84 4 5 45 10 106.0 114 57 11 47 67
Rheal Cormier* 40 4.89 3 3 68 0 57.0 61 31 7 20 31
Matt Belisle 27 4.95 5 6 42 13 109.0 120 60 15 34 73
Eric Milton* 31 4.96 9 11 31 31 178.0 192 98 30 54 121
Kyle Lohse 28 4.96 9 11 35 27 167.0 197 92 23 55 98
Elizardo Ramirez 24 4.97 6 8 26 23 134.0 156 74 23 29 83
Eddie Guardado* 36 5.00 2 2 48 0 45.0 46 25 9 15 44
Kent Mercker* 39 5.06 1 2 63 0 48.0 49 27 8 20 37
Jason Johnson 33 5.31 8 13 31 30 178.0 210 105 25 55 96
Brandon Claussen* 28 5.31 7 12 26 26 144.0 154 85 24 57 113
David Weathers 37 5.35 4 6 66 0 69.0 70 41 11 32 51
Steve Kelly 27 5.35 7 12 25 24 143.0 161 85 21 58 86
Paul Wilson 34 5.43 4 8 20 20 126.0 143 76 21 45 79
Scott Chiasson 29 5.63 1 3 47 0 48.0 50 30 8 27 38
Mike Gosling* 26 5.68 5 9 28 23 133.0 149 84 24 56 94
Ryan Franklin 34 5.70 6 12 41 22 161.0 188 102 29 57 84
Phil Dumatrait* 25 5.72 6 12 26 25 140.0 156 89 20 69 91
Joe Mays 31 5.73 5 10 27 23 135.0 169 86 22 44 64
Jake Robbins 31 5.82 2 5 49 1 65.0 72 42 9 38 43
Josh Hall 26 5.82 5 12 26 26 153.0 184 99 28 56 81
Tyler Pelland* 23 6.33 4 10 29 24 135.0 154 95 19 91 78
Tim Bausher 28 6.39 2 5 37 2 69.0 78 49 12 42 43
Travis Wood* 20 6.70 3 12 27 27 137.0 157 102 30 76 88
Chad Bentz* 27 9.42 1 5 41 2 43.0 54 45 15 34 31
Total 5.21 162 241 469 469 3644.0 4009 2109 545 1437 2420
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Homer Bailey
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.87 9 7 29 27 142 126 61 14 69 130
Mean 4.50 7 8 27 24 126 120 63 15 66 110
Pessimistic (15%) 5.47 4 8 22 20 102 106 62 16 58 89
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 25, 2006 at 02:43 PM | 25 comment(s)
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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. G A Delgado Posted: October 25, 2006 at 04:24 PM (#2224131)I remember when Junior was the greatest player playing the game...
If the Reds try to deal a catcher, which one should they shop?
Which is why I wondered whether it'd make more sense to keep LaRue as the backup and try to flip Ross or Valentin for something of actual value.
Do you mean which one can they shop?
Ross. As noted, LaRue is untradeable; Valentin, with that fat new contract ($1.25M for a crappy lefty PH) is nearly so. At least with Ross, they could make some team believe he'll repeat this year's numbers, and get something of value.
That Aurilia projection looks pretty nice too for a bench player.
But Milton giving up just 30 HR in about 180 IP??? ZIPS is on crack!!
I should amend that last sentence. Adam Dunn is CAPABLE of playing defense. The guy just won't bother. This is an instance where a good, swift kick in the *ss is required from a manager. Dunn needs to lose 25 pounds and practice taking fly balls. Three years ago Dunn was an ok outfielder. Now he's just a lazy goof-off who talks about fantasy football whenever anyone asks him a question.
If ANYONE in this community professes an admiration for Dunn they need to be sat down and shown video of Reds games from 2005 and 2006. If you are a baseball FAN you cannot watch this player and come away with a positive feeling. He's a disgrace.
It's not that he clearly doesn't like baseball. (Dunn regularly states he would have preferred to be in the NFL but knew MLB was the better chance to succeed and make more money) It's not that he strikes out a lot. It's not that he loafs to first base on anything not a hit. It's not that he lumbers around in left field like a steer with a bee sting.
It's that he simply doesn't BOTHER. With ANYTHING.
He takes the field, fiddles around for 3 hours or so, and then heads off to watch bass fishing on ESPN2.
I know some here have remarked how much they enjoy Dunn's comments as they seem to reflect some carefree approach to the game which is refreshing. I appreciate the need to be an individual as much as anyone, but there is a big difference to having a different perspective toward one's profession and being completely disinterested in anything.
Adam Dunn is rapidly becoming my least favorite ballplayer. Like Dave Kingman he is taking a world of talent and p*ssing it away. Kingman at least had the excuse of becoming embittered by how he was treated by his first employer (the Giants) and deciding to take out his anger in a personal mission to simply focus on hitting a ball as far as possible at the expense of everything else. Kingman was a loser but he at least kept himself in shape and while on the field tried to excel at the one thing he had decided was important.
Dunn cares about NOTHING. Absolutely NOTHING.
Again, he either needs a two by four across the forehead as a wake up call or the Reds need to dump his fat *ss. 'Cause no team with this 270 lbs of deadweight is ever going to do anything worth a d*mn.
Sounds to me that he cares about fantasy football and bass fishing. Those are legitimate interests, I suppose.
I haven't seen him play recently. If he hangs out in the OF like you are saying, it sounds like a Jim Leyland style asskicking is in order.
Either or. He really is a liability in the outfield...and Harvey's right, when Dunn's in shape he's a pretty athletic guy who appears to have the physical tools to play a decent left field.
Of course, Dunn at first base made more sense before the Reds traded Pena for Arroyo, Kearns et al for a bag of magic beans, and inexplicably fell in love with Scott Hatteberg.
Actually your description of Dunn's atttude towards the game seems more like another former Met- Kevin McReynolds
After reading his comments, listening to his interviews, and watching his career I now completely believe Dunn when he states he simply doesn't find baseball interesting. He does it because he can and make lots of money doing it. About the only time Dunn gets excited is when he is involved in a collision at home plate where he can re-live the glory days of his collegiate football career.
If you DH this young man I guarantee he will balloon past three bills before you can mutter "David Wells". And once he gets injured instead of having someone diligently working to get back on the field you will experience some indifferent fella munching on bon-bons in the trainer's room.
Dunn is a hard case. It will take a SERIOUS intervention to get anything of substance from him. On his current course he will be out of baseball by age 30 either because he finally decides he has enough money to finance a lifetime of riverboat excursions or gets hurt and never bothers to try and come back.
If I knew where the strike through function went I would cross out "re-live" and type "live" and then type "Fixed" in the body. But I don't know where it went.
Kriskey will probably trade Dunn away this winter, anyway; it's easy to wear out one's welcome by hitting so poorly during a pennant-run. For Cincy this may make sense as, other than Dunn, Griffey & LaRue on the offensive side of things, the Reds don't have too much money tied up; sending Dunn and his +$10m for each of the next two years may give the team some flexibility.
Adam started letting himself go in late 2004. Yes, he was friends with Kearns. And it was common knowledge in the NL Central that the Reds were concerned that the two together was not a good mix. Dunn's waistline had expanded and Austin soon followed with his own "Belly Up To The Buffet" conditioning program.
Narron has his positives but one drawback is that the knows a number of these guys from their time in the minors. And part of me suspects that they are more friends then manager/employee. As in, "Man, can you believe we all made it here?".
Sweet Lou is likely a bad fit with the Cubs but would have made a decent fit with the Reds. This squad needs about five guys hauled into the manager's office by their ear and told the facts of life.
"Ken, you are going to play right field"
"Adam, lose 25 pounds"
"Ryan, dry yourself out and be in bed two hours after the game is over"
"Harang, get into a conditioning program"
"Brandon, quit being such a crybaby"
These guys need to go away:
Juan, Jason, and Kyle.
And I agree that a kickass mgr. might do this team some good.
when Dunn's in shape he's a pretty athletic guy who appears to have the physical tools to play a decent left field.
Given his athletic past, I think it is clear this is the case.
Votto improved over the course of the season, but I think he probably needs AAA time. He still has trouble on the inner half of the plate. For those who are interested, he's playing in the Dominican this winter, at Escogido.
-- MWE
Hard to argue with the results from Harang, though, isn't it? Nice trade for Bowden, BTW.
"Jr., ensconce yourself in bubblewrap. It's socially acceptable."
"Coutlangus, change that name, it's distracting."
"Denorfria, I want you to cut down from 1/2 time on Law and Order to no time. You need to work on baseball, and your character's just getting too weird."
Between living in SD and working nights, I only see the Reds play maybe 15 times a year. That said, I think it is important to separate "how much the guy irritates me" from "how much he hurts/helps the team."
Dunn may be as big of a problem as you guys say, but I heard a lot of attitude stuff about Kearns, and, to a lesser extent, Lopez as well, and the team didn't do better after they left. And, they were basically replaced by Ryan SuperAttitudeBoy Freel and Royce VeteranLeader Clayton.
I think, though, Krivsky will pretty much dump Dunn for a pitcher and mediocre OF, so I guess I hope on some level Borchard and HW are right.
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