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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, October 30, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections - Colorado Rockies


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Todd Helton*        1b 33 .315 .432 .517 146 518 87 163 42 3 19 81 105 67 2 1
Matt Holliday         lf 27 .324 .383 .570 144 544 96 176 40 5 28 96 43 88 9 4
Garrett Atkins       3b 27 .317 .389 .521 146 543 96 172 43 1 22 101 61 63 1 1
Brad Hawpe*          rf 28 .283 .368 .493 138 446 59 126 26 4 20 73 61 108 3 3
Jeff Baker           rf 26 .291 .342 .504 130 474 55 138 30 4 21 89 35 104 6 1
Chris Iannetta       c   24 .269 .358 .465 103 342 64 92 21 2 14 45 44 60 1 1
Ryan Spilborghs       lf 27 .292 .352 .441 136 456 78 133 33 4 9 57 43 85 10 4
Troy Tulowitzki       ss 22 .282 .351 .429 119 478 76 135 32 1 12 52 46 67 6 3
Carlos Rivera*        1b 29 .290 .326 .439 122 403 45 117 25 1 11 55 18 54 2 2
Seth Smith*          rf 24 .273 .322 .420 134 528 63 144 41 2 11 55 36 75 3 3
Cory Sullivan*        cf 27 .286 .338 .405 133 440 63 126 26 7 4 39 33 84 10 6
Kaz Matsui#          2b 31 .277 .330 .385 103 361 61 100 20 2 5 39 27 64 10 2
Josh Wilson         ss 26 .265 .324 .401 126 449 69 119 24 2 11 47 38 91 11 6
Jeff Salazar*        cf 26 .249 .335 .382 107 398 63 99 20 3 9 40 49 79 10 6
Luis A. Gonzalez       2b 28 .274 .316 .402 107 321 35 88 18 1 7 33 15 51 2 3
Ian Stewart*        3b 22 .248 .314 .407 121 460 70 114 34 3 11 57 39 87 2 4
Jamey Carroll         2b 33 .267 .348 .345 123 374 54 100 17 3 2 27 45 57 6 7
Vinny Castilla       3b 39 .239 .297 .398 127 440 43 105 29 1 13 70 32 87 1 1
Choo Freeman         cf 27 .257 .311 .381 119 339 48 87 13 4 7 40 25 79 5 4
Yorvit Torrealba       c   28 .240 .297 .409 73 225 26 54 16 2 6 34 16 47 2 2
Jason Smith*        ss 29 .248 .294 .412 91 250 29 62 11 3 8 30 15 64 5 3
Omar Quintanilla*      ss 25 .261 .314 .358 104 371 57 97 20 2 4 28 26 55 3 2
Clint Barmes         ss 28 .255 .296 .374 119 463 70 118 27 2 8 47 21 65 8 6
Alvin Colina         c   25 .235 .284 .374 86 294 39 69 11 0 10 35 17 57 1 2
Matt Macri           2b 25 .222 .275 .338 80 275 27 61 12 1 6 27 18 57 2 2
Tommy Whiteman       3b 27 .230 .287 .307 97 309 31 71 12 0 4 30 23 75 3 3
Jayson Nix           2b 24 .230 .277 .311 116 421 48 97 19 0 5 28 24 63 8 4

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Clint Barmes
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .273 .324 .434 132 516 91 141 35 3 14 64 28 62 12 6
Mean         .255 .296 .374 119 463 70 118 27 2 8 47 21 65 8 6
Pessimistic (15%) .236 .272 .333 76 297 39 70 15 1 4 25 11 45 4 5

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

                  ZiPS Website Pitching—2007 Colorado Rockies                  
                            Regular season                            

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Manuel Corpas         24   3.75   4   2 63   0   72.0   76   30   6   14   47
Brian Fuentes*        31   3.80   4   3 67   1   64.0   54   27   7   27   71
Aaron Cook           28   4.37 10   9 27 27   175.0 198   85 14   44   71
Byung-Hyun Kim         28   4.44   9   9 32 26   152.0 161   75 17   59 116
Jeff Francis*        26   4.48 13 12 32 32   191.0 194   95 24   65 134
Jason Jennings         28   4.60 10 10 29 29   188.0 197   96 19   78 123
Ray King*            33   4.60   3   3 73   0   47.0   51   24   4   20   26
Bret Prinz           30   4.85   1   2 34   0   39.0   39   21   6   18   35
Nate Field           31   4.94   3   3 50   0   51.0   54   28   9   18   47
Tom Martin*          37   4.96   1   1 59   0   49.0   54   27   6   22   32
Mike DeJean           36   5.03   4   5 60   0   68.0   72   38   6   33   57
David Cortes         33   5.17   2   2 52   0   54.0   60   31   9   17   35
Denny Bautista         26   5.25   6   8 26 24   132.0 139   77 16   82 102
Jose Mesa           41   5.32   3   4 69   0   66.0   74   39   9   30   35
Jeremy Affeldt*        28   5.42   4   6 50   7   83.0   89   50 10   48   53
Josh Fogg           30   5.49   7 12 32 30   169.0 204 103 26   60   81
Jose Acevedo         29   5.58   5   8 29 18   113.0 138   70 22   29   66
Franklin Morales*      21   5.70   6 11 25 23   139.0 146   88 19   97 108
Mike Venafro*        33   5.71   1   3 59   0   52.0   60   33   7   27   28
Ubaldo Jimenez         23   5.73   6 11 26 26   143.0 153   91 22   85 103
Miguel Asencio         26   5.79   5 10 37 16   112.0 135   72 21   42   61
Mike Esposito         25   5.81   6 12 27 27   155.0 190 100 31   47   84
Justin Hampson*        27   6.14   5 11 31 21   145.0 170   99 29   68   88
Zach Parker*          25   6.24   5 11 25 20   124.0 157   86 23   51   50
Juan Morillo         23   6.61   5 13 28 28   147.0 169 108 31   90   98
Ramon Ramirez         25   6.64   3   8 23 15   99.0 120   73 22   45   57
Chin-hui Tsao         26   6.92   1   2 15   4   26.0   31   20   9   8   22
Jim Miller           25   7.13   1   3 50   0   48.0   57   38 16   18   42
Steve Colyer*        28   7.85   1   4 52   0   55.0   62   48 13   53   43

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) -  Jeff Francis
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  4.48 13 12 32 32 191 194   95 24   65 134  
Mean           3.81 16 11 34 34 208 197   88 21   63 149
Pessimistic (15%)  5.25   9 12 27 27 156 169   91 24   58 107

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 30, 2006 at 08:07 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. John M. Perkins Posted: October 30, 2006 at 08:25 PM (#2228203)
Recheck Francis' mean.
   2. Cabbage Posted: October 30, 2006 at 08:26 PM (#2228205)
I think you flipped the optimistic and mean lines in the Francis spotlight
   3. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 30, 2006 at 08:32 PM (#2228211)
Both of the Nix boys have sure fallen off a cliff, haven't they?

I'd like to see Tom Whiteman make the majors, even if only for a cup of coffee.
   4. Azteca Posted: October 30, 2006 at 09:12 PM (#2228224)
what kind of park effect are we dealing with? I know Dan posted 2006 park factors for the minor leagues, along with his MLEs, but I haven't seen then for the majors. Also, are these projections employing 3-yr factors? Thanks.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 30, 2006 at 10:15 PM (#2228263)
Yeah, I flipped the optimistic and mean.

Too much has been made of the reduction in Coors Field park effects in 2006.

First, the numbers have been going down for awhile, it was just more noticeable this year because the Rockies had 3 starters who were just plain good this year. 3-year weighted average for Coors PF is 1.09 (a park factor of 118 or so) rather than the 1.07 (a park factor of 114 or so) this season. Homers have been down for awhile (2006 is actually a *higher* PF than 2005 for homers).

Secondly, Coors is still a really good hitters' park, just a really good hitters' park in the Traditional Baseball Sense rather than the Freaky Baseball Stars American Dreams On The Moon Sense.
   6. Azteca Posted: October 30, 2006 at 10:25 PM (#2228270)
If you'll indulge us, Dan: Could we have Closser's projection? He must still be with the team. Also, guys who could see action in 2007: Koshansky & Gaetti? And for interests sake: Eric Young Jr. & Corey Wimberly? Thanks.

Also, I was thinking what you stated, just wanted to see it in writing. Thanks, again.
   7. Hooked on Phoenix Posted: October 30, 2006 at 11:02 PM (#2228297)
Closser's now on the Brewers - he was claimed off waivers on October 13th.
   8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 30, 2006 at 11:24 PM (#2228314)
I would also like to echo the Koshansky request.
   9. Kyle S Posted: October 30, 2006 at 11:41 PM (#2228324)
I would also like to echo the Koshansky request.

Joe was in ECON 420 with me third year (a very tough class btw) and still had time to mash. Here's to another UVA alum making the bigs - Zimm needs company!
   10. Boots Day Posted: October 30, 2006 at 11:48 PM (#2228329)
If the Rockies really get that kind of production from Tulowitzki and Iannetta next year, they're contenders. They got basically nothing from SS and C this year.

I hate to say it, but that projection for Helton looks optimistic to me.

I take it as a good sign that the Rockies are openly shopping for a centerfielder to replace Cory Sullivan, whose numbers are superficially respectable but who isn't really all that good. I take it as a bad sign that they're throwing around names like Jay Payton.
   11. JPWF13 Posted: October 31, 2006 at 12:14 AM (#2228360)
Too much has been made of the reduction in Coors Field park effects in 2006.

First
the numbers have been going down for awhileit was just more noticeable this year because 


because for slightly more than half the year Coors in fact seemed to be neutral:

There were 869 runs scored in 81 Colorado home games (10.7/g), 756 in Colorado's away games (9.3)

but...
From 9/1 on, there were 16.8 r/g in Colorado (14games) and 11.5 r/g (15 games) in road games
In August there were 10.7 r/g in 15 colorado homes games, 7.5 r/g in 13 colorado away games

What that means is that before 8/1/06 there were 9.1 r/g in colorado's home games and 9.2 r/g in Colorado Home games

In other words, after about 100 games Colordao appeared to be acting NEUTRAL
after 8/1/06 Colorado seemed to have reverted to all it's former offense inducing glory (raw park factor of 142 last 2 months)

I used to look at Colorado home road splits a lot, at least before about 2002/03 there was NEVER a 50 game stretch (approx 25 home/25 away) where Coors appeared neutral.
Now the fact that runs were scored at an equal rate in Colorado and on the road for the Rockies first 100 games this year could simply be a random outlier, it could be weather related, it could be due to a scheduling imbalance (playing low scoring teams at home more often early in the year- high scoring teams at home later on) it could also be humidor related*...

just a wild guess, after a lot of press comment in the renewed/amped up use of the humidor this year, MLB told Colorado to knock it out- just the perception that Colorado could be fooling around with the balls to gain an unfair perception is something MLB doesn't want- if so we might see a return of Coors to all its distorted glory next year...


*It could also be that around 8/06 alot of fantasy leaguers were starting to cast their Coors aversion aside and began picking up Rockies pitchers- just in time for Coors to start acting liek Coors agin :-)
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 31, 2006 at 12:20 AM (#2228371)
because for slightly more than half the year Coors in fact seemed to be neutral:

Thanks for the insight! I didn't know there were such drastic early season/late season splits.
   13. Banta Posted: October 31, 2006 at 11:58 AM (#2228617)
just a wild guess, after a lot of press comment in the renewed/amped up use of the humidor this year, MLB told Colorado to knock it out

I don't think that is necessarily true. When the Mets played in Coors during the season, the announcers mentioned talking to the Rockies pitching coach, Bob Apodaca, and he said that the humidor simply makes the balls like they are everywhere else, meaning that they're properly weighed instead of excessively dried out. However, the air itself in Colorado is still thinner than most every place else so even though the balls are balanced now, the air itself should still make the balls travel further than in other places.

Now, I'm not a scientist, but this makes sense to me. I'd imagine that from this point on, Colorado will play as a very good hitters park, but not to the absurd levels of years past and it will also be shown that the neutral effect that was displayed for 2/3rds of the year was basically a fluke.
   14. realteamcoach Posted: October 31, 2006 at 03:42 PM (#2228722)
What are Josh Wilson's defensive ratings like?? I have always thought of him as a good defender. If that is the case, shouldn't he have some value to teams like the Royals?? Hell, to most of the MLB teams??
   15. shoewizard Posted: October 31, 2006 at 09:01 PM (#2229114)
Interesting that ZIPS likes Kim slightly better than Jennins, (except for IP of course). And they are the same age.

Jennings is a FA after 2007, (I assume Colorado exercised the option, have they?) I am guessing he will be quite the trade deadline commodity.
   16. Boots Day Posted: October 31, 2006 at 09:34 PM (#2229130)
The Rockies are trying to sign Jennings to a long-term contract this off-season. They're also leaning towards exercising Kim's option.
   17. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 01, 2006 at 02:59 PM (#2229515)
What are Josh Wilson's defensive ratings like?? I have always thought of him as a good defender.
Per BA handbooks, he's above average. And, yes, he's one of the better minor league free agents on the market (IMO), though his offensive projections are Coors fueled.
   18. kwarren Posted: December 24, 2007 at 12:00 AM (#2652816)
If the Rockies really get that kind of production from Tulowitzki and Iannetta next year, they're contenders. They got basically nothing from SS and C this year.

Does making the World Series qualify them as contenders? And that was with Iannetta no where close to his projection, but I guess Tulowitzki made up the difference.

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