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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections - Detroit Tigers


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Carlos Guillen#      ss 31 .311 .383 .507 136 485 89 151 34 5 17 76 56 74 12 6
Chris Shelton         1b 27 .283 .354 .479 144 501 78 142 27 4 21 71 52 119 1 1
Sean Casey*          1b 32 .296 .360 .422 130 486 65 144 28 0 11 74 41 58 1 0
Magglio Ordonez       rf 33 .290 .341 .462 129 487 63 141 25 1 19 86 37 70 1 3
Josh Phelps         1b 29 .277 .335 .462 119 426 40 118 21 2 18 71 31 108 2 1
Curtis Granderson*    cf 26 .267 .340 .438 152 562 86 150 27 6 19 70 61 158 12 6
Placido Polanco       2b 31 .307 .349 .405 120 476 69 146 21 1 8 53 24 28 3 2
Craig Monroe         lf 30 .267 .314 .468 148 524 75 140 32 2 23 90 36 105 3 2
Marcus Thames         lf 30 .242 .317 .474 105 331 48 80 18 1 19 53 35 100 1 2
Ivan Rodriguez       c   35 .289 .319 .436 134 516 67 149 30 2 14 68 23 87 6 3
Ryan Ludwick         rf 28 .249 .317 .452 118 425 44 106 24 1 20 59 37 126 1 3
Matt Stairs*        1b 39 .247 .334 .406 122 372 40 92 21 1 12 59 46 83 0 0
Brandon Inge         3b 30 .255 .320 .441 155 533 70 136 27 6 20 78 48 118 5 4
Cameron Maybin       cf 20 .256 .322 .366 106 383 45 98 15 3 7 44 35 110 17 6
Omar Infante         2b 25 .253 .298 .411 115 384 51 97 24 5 9 43 24 71 8 3
Alexis Gomez*        rf 28 .263 .304 .395 123 377 43 99 20 3 8 41 21 80 9 5
Dustan Mohr         rf 31 .221 .312 .388 105 281 34 62 13 2 10 32 36 94 1 2
Mike Rabelo#        c   27 .247 .304 .361 95 324 34 80 20 1 5 34 21 61 1 1
Brent Clevlen         rf 23 .231 .299 .355 138 459 57 106 17 2 12 50 43 132 6 3
Vance Wilson         c   34 .248 .297 .373 64 153 17 38 7 0 4 19   7 29 0 2
Tony Giarratano#      ss 24 .239 .295 .317 86 322 34 77 18 2 1 20 24 62 10 4
Neifi Perez#        ss 34 .254 .282 .340 134 429 40 109 20 1 5 45 16 48 3 2
Mike Hessman         3b 29 .179 .263 .366 116 385 39 69 12 0 20 51 41 121 2 2
Kody Kirkland         3b 24 .203 .256 .360 128 444 46 90 22 3 14 46 22 139 7 6
Kevin Hooper         ss 30 .245 .283 .287 118 432 50 106 11 2 1 26 21 58 12 8
Maxim St. Pierre       c   27 .222 .268 .297 87 293 29 65 13 0 3 29 16 44 1 1
Ramon Santiago#      ss 27 .213 .267 .293 106 314 45 67 11 1 4 27 21 41 8 4

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Curtis Granderson
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .290 .372 .492 162 597 106 173 36 8 23 86 75 153 17 5
Mean         .267 .340 .438 152 562 86 150 27 6 19 70 61 158 12 6
Pessimistic (15%) .249 .319 .387 118 434 58 108 18 3 12 47 43 128 5 5

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Joel Zumaya           22   3.39   5   3 56   0   77.0   57   29   6   39   94
Jeremy Bonderman       24   3.60 15   8 31 31   205.0 197   82 21   56 176
Todd Jones           39   3.73   6   3 66   0   70.0   69   29   4   18   42
Jamie Walker*        35   3.81   2   2 61   0   52.0   51   22   6   11   39
Justin Verlander       24   3.89 14   9 28 28   171.0 167   74 17   47 130
Fernando Rodney       30   3.90   5   4 55   0   60.0   49   26   6   28   58
Andrew Miller*        22   4.11   9   6 27 17   127.0 122   58   8   58   93
Kenny Rogers*        42   4.14 14 10 32 32   198.0 213   91 19   61   91
Nate Robertson*        29   4.21 13 11 32 32   199.0 204   93 25   64 135
Humberto Sanchez       24   4.42   7   7 19 18   108.0 105   53 10   51   85
Jair Jurrjens         21   4.53   7   7 25 25   147.0 161   74 16   38   77
Zach Miner           25   4.73   8   8 30 24   139.0 143   73 16   63   85
Roman Colon           27   4.73   3   4 43   6   78.0   83   41 10   25   52
Wil Ledezma*          26   4.78   6   7 29 18   111.0 116   59 14   42   73
Mike Maroth*          29   4.90 10 12 29 28   180.0 199   98 25   48   93
Craig Dingman         33   4.93   4   4 62   0   73.0   70   40 10   41   67
John Ennis           27   4.98   4   5 48   5   85.0   90   47 11   36   58
Eulogio de la Cruz     23   5.01   5   5 40 12   106.0 113   59 11   51   70
Jordan Tata           25   5.34   7   9 27 23   150.0 169   89 22   55   82
Jason Karnuth         31   5.35   4   5 62   0   69.0   77   41   7   31   30
Dallas Trahern         21   5.37   7 10 25 25   156.0 185   93 19   52   52
Jason Grilli         30   5.43   5   7 48   0   58.0   62   35   8   24   29
Troy Percival         37   5.45   2   3 41   0   38.0   37   23   7   11   20
Preston Larrison       26   5.53   5   7 26 16   109.0 129   67 15   40   40
Chad Durbin           29   5.77   6 10 28 25   156.0 181 100 31   50   86
Steve Green           29   5.97   5   8 37 11   95.0 101   63 12   64   61
Mark Woodyard         28   6.00   3   5 43   4   78.0   87   52 12   42   45
Mike Nannini         27   6.16   4   7 34 13   111.0 130   76 27   36   68
Kyle Sleeth           25   7.60   1   5 11 11   58.0   70   49 14   36   34

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) -  Jeremy Bonderman
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.05 19   7 34 34 227 205   77 18   57 198
Mean           3.60 15   8 31 31 205 197   82 21   56 176          
Pessimistic (15%)  4.20 11   9 26 26 167 171   78 20   53 140

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 01, 2006 at 02:00 PM | 30 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. realteamcoach Posted: November 01, 2006 at 02:51 PM (#2229509)
Ramon Santiago looks like Neifi JR!!!
   2. number 6 Posted: November 01, 2006 at 03:09 PM (#2229525)
I knew andrew miller was good but...

how many starters reach the majors a year after being drafted?
   3. Kyle S Posted: November 01, 2006 at 03:19 PM (#2229529)
A Josh Phelps signing!
   4. Kyle S Posted: November 01, 2006 at 03:19 PM (#2229530)
A Josh Phelps sighting! (sorry in advance if this is a double post)
   5. TOLAXOR Posted: November 01, 2006 at 03:26 PM (#2229539)
HEY, T.O.:

YOU KNOW WHAT WOULD BE COOL - A 2007 ZIPS JUST FOR FREE AGENTS!!!
   6. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 01, 2006 at 03:39 PM (#2229546)
I knew andrew miller was good but...

how many starters reach the majors a year after being drafted?


Mark Prior did.

If Andrew Miller reaches the majors next year, IMO, it will likely be as a reliever. My expectation is that he will start the season in Erie, with a promotion to AAA a strong possibility sometime around late May if he dominates the EL.

-- MWE
   7. WalkOffIBB Posted: November 01, 2006 at 03:48 PM (#2229554)
If Andrew Miller reaches the majors next year, IMO, it will likely be as a reliever.

I agree, especially considering that was his role this year. The Tiger bullpen has only Walker as true lefty RP (Ledezma and Maroth are really more starters). I am hoping that they want to use Miller like the Twins used Santana.
   8. Azteca Posted: November 01, 2006 at 04:10 PM (#2229573)
Walker's a free agent, I believe. Also, never mind Miller's projection: how about Humberto's & Jurrjens's? That team may have serious OBP issues, but it's loaded with starting pitching.
   9. joker24 Posted: November 01, 2006 at 04:35 PM (#2229591)
Just wondering, how much accuracy does ZiPS have on a guy that has a grand total of 15.1 professional innings as Miller does? That just seems far too optimistic for me especially if he is used as a starter at all seeing as how he really only has 2 usable pitches. As a starter, sinking 90-95 and that slurve is a good 1-2 combo, but ML hitters tend to be able to adjust. I could see him being a dominant reliever because he can dial 97, but not yet as a starter. I dunno, I'm just not nearly as high on Miller as a lot of people.

Think they might rethink trading Bonderman?
   10. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 01, 2006 at 04:45 PM (#2229597)
I actually think a 22/139 K/BB is optimistic for Kirkland.
   11. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 01, 2006 at 04:46 PM (#2229598)
Er, BB/K. You know what I meant.

Ryan Ludwick would be a pretty nice half-platoon, wouldn't he?
   12. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: November 01, 2006 at 04:56 PM (#2229604)
Those are pretty damn amazing numbers for Bonderman, especially considering they all have him losing ground on his K/9.
   13. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 01, 2006 at 05:08 PM (#2229607)
Also, never mind Miller's projection: how about Humberto's & Jurrjens's?


I'd want to be sure that Sanchez is fully recovered from his injury - the Tigers kept downplaying it, but he kept not pitching after early August.

Jurrjens had a good year, true, but his HR rate spiked up after he moved to Erie, and he's more of a command/location guy than a miss-bats guy. My guess is that it will be at least 2008 before he's ready for major league hitters, and I would not be at all surprised to see him start at Erie again. I expect him to need adjustment time at every level.

-- MWE
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 01, 2006 at 05:12 PM (#2229611)
Just wondering, how much accuracy does ZiPS have on a guy that has a grand total of 15.1 professional innings as Miller does?

Zero. Miller's one of those guys I include because people ##### if he's not there, a la Weeks a few years ago.
   15. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 01, 2006 at 05:19 PM (#2229614)
I'd be ecstatic if I could take those numbers for the starting pitchers right now.
   16. Buddha Posted: November 01, 2006 at 07:02 PM (#2229680)
Shelton seems a little high for a guy who's had one great month in his career.

Hopefully Zumaya will be better than that. Gotta love Bonderman's numbers.
   17. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 01, 2006 at 09:00 PM (#2229764)
I really hope we keep Bonderman. Nate/Maroth & a prospect (NOT Sanchez) for Dunn.
   18. realteamcoach Posted: November 01, 2006 at 09:02 PM (#2229768)
If the Tigers trade Bonderman, they will regret it for years to come. He is not as highly regarded as Beckett, but is (currently and in the future) the better pitcher.
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 01, 2006 at 09:03 PM (#2229769)
Shelton seems a little high for a guy who's had one great month in his career.


Too bad he's not that guy - lest people forget (and I'm surprised that you're one of 'em!), Shelton hit 299/360/510 in 2005 in more plate appearances than he got in 2006.
   20. Azteca Posted: November 01, 2006 at 09:04 PM (#2229770)
Shelton has some fine #s in the minors, though everyone seems to focus on him falling to pieces this year. He's useful, but batting as a right-hander, he may have a difficult time catching on somewhere else.
   21. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 01, 2006 at 09:10 PM (#2229774)
Those are pretty damn amazing numbers for Bonderman, especially considering they all have him losing ground on his K/9.

Shrug, they are a slight improvement. His WHIP drops from 1.30 this year to 1.23 in the projection, but his HR/9 goes from 0.76 this year to a projected 0.92 next year. Overall, a modest improvement, which I think can be expected from a 24 y.o. (or whatever he is) with his peripherals.

The K/9 numbers are expected regression, I'm sure.
   22. AROM Posted: November 01, 2006 at 09:12 PM (#2229780)
Shelton is useless. Detroit should trade him (to the Angels) for some trinkets.
   23. JPWF13 Posted: November 01, 2006 at 10:15 PM (#2229823)
Shelton seems a little high for a guy who's had one great month in his career.


Too bad he's not that guy - lest people forget (and I'm surprised that you're one of 'em!), Shelton hit 299/360/510 in 2005 in more plate appearances than he got in 2006.


Not to mention that he's hit .281/.348/.477 in 899 MLB PAs
and he'll be 27 next year.

Shelton reminds me of Juan Rivera, ZIPs had him projected to hit .286/.336/.460 and a lot of posters complained that was too high even though his career mark heading into 2006 was 283/.331/.452.
   24. JPWF13 Posted: November 01, 2006 at 10:17 PM (#2229826)
... I meant ZIPs projections for Juan Rivera in 2006...
   25. Mister High Standards Posted: November 01, 2006 at 11:31 PM (#2229866)
Shelton reminds me of Juan Rivera,


Yeah and sometimes it works the other way... Giambi the lil, Bobby Kielty ect... it's always a crap shoot whe projecting a part time guy into a full time player. (Not that I'm saying shelton is, but Rivera fit that bill).
   26. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 02, 2006 at 02:25 AM (#2229988)
Yeah and sometimes it works the other way... Giambi the lil, Bobby Kielty ect... it's always a crap shoot whe projecting a part time guy into a full time player.

Part of this is due to pinch-hitting at-bats that a lot of part-timers get, especially in the NL. While working on ZiPS a few years ago, I found that removing pinch-hitting at-bats from player projections actually increased the accuracy of the projections despite decreasing the amount of data you have to work with.
   27. JPWF13 Posted: November 02, 2006 at 04:53 AM (#2230060)
I found that removing pinch-hitting at-bats from player projections actually increased the accuracy of the projections despite decreasing the amount of data you have to work with.


Which made me think of Hee Sop Choi... with a career mark of .357/.455 when not pinchhitting he could have been projected to be a viable 1B... of course his bat vaporized in '06...

Yeah and sometimes it works the other way... Giambi the lil, Bobby Kielty ect... it's always a crap shoot whe projecting a part time guy into a full time player.

It's not that much of a crapshoot- guys like Kielty and Jason MIchaels (to add another) should not be expected to succeed as FT players since much of their apparent success as PTers is partly driven by taking advantage of a platoon differential in their favor and also may arise fromm a sample size fluke- an MLB average player (like a Kielty) will have a 250-350 AB stretch sooner or later where they put up an OPS+ of 125 or higher- In Kielty's case there was never anything in his track record, MLB or minor league to suggest thate his 138 OPS+ in 2002 was anything other than a onetime fluke.

as to little Jeremy- I'm not sure he's an example of anything (don't do drugs maybe?)
I'm not aware that he was ever a FT player, at his best he could almost hit well enough to overlook that he did everything else worse than the average beer league softballer- I think it would have been interesting if a team just made him their DH and started him 150 games- but it never happened...

Juan Rivera on the other hand has had a pretty clear track record- he hits well when he plays regularly, he doesn't hit well when he plays sporadically. For various reasons he's tended to get more consistent PT in the second half of seasons- and in his career post ASB he's hit .320/.369/.507- he has virtually no platoon split- he hits righties as well as he hits lefties.
Personally I've been mystified at how 3 organizations have simply decided- contrary to all objective evidence- that he's not a regular player and have [mis]handled him- it'd be quite amusing if going into 2007 as a career .291 hitter coming off a .310/.362/.525 year, he gets benched in April or May the first time he goes ofer two games.
   28. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 02, 2006 at 05:40 AM (#2230073)
as to little Jeremy- I'm not sure he's an example of anything (don't do drugs maybe?)
I'm not aware that he was ever a FT player, at his best he could almost hit well enough to overlook that he did everything else worse than the average beer league softballer- I think it would have been interesting if a team just made him their DH and started him 150 games- but it never happened...


Yeah, his body fell apart (wrist, torn labrum, career-ending back problems within a 10 months span) before he had a chance to succeed or fail as a full-time DH.

It all worked out for Sox fans in the end - if Giambi hadn't had such a poor start, David Ortiz' awful April makes him the odd man out instead. It's very interesting how the careers of Giambi and Ortiz diverged - Ortiz wasn't exactly highly thought-of in those days.
   29. ian Posted: December 24, 2006 at 08:03 AM (#2268028)
Just wondering, how much accuracy does ZiPS have on a guy that has a grand total of 15.1 professional innings as Miller does?

It's really weird that a 21 year old with a 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP in A+ ball and a 6.10 ERA in 10.0 IP at MLB gets predicted at 4.11 ERA, 127.0 IP in MLB the following season.

That sort of prediction doesn't seem so far off if you ascribe nervousness as affecting Miller's control in MLB last year, but a scout would be doing that, not a computer projection.
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 24, 2006 at 03:12 PM (#2268055)

That sort of prediction doesn't seem so far off if you ascribe nervousness as affecting Miller's control in MLB last year, but a scout would be doing that, not a computer projection.


I have a very rough outline at a college translation, but I only use that in the very rare case as I mention above, of a player that has almost no professional experience but people still expect that player to have a projection.

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