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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, November 03, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections - Florida Marlins


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Miguel Cabrera       lf 23 .319 .388 .570 162 626 112 200 36 2 39 131 69 146 3 1
Josh Willingham       lf 28 .270 .365 .467 143 482 65 130 27 1 22 73 66 124 3 1
Wes Helms           1b 31 .286 .355 .450 128 262 28 75 15 2 8 42 24 62 0 2
Jeremy Hermida*      rf 23 .254 .357 .426 131 397 59 101 24 1 14 48 61 95 8 2
Hanley Ramirez#      ss 23 .277 .338 .439 152 599 113 166 40 9 13 52 54 117 40 13
Mike Jacobs*        1b 26 .254 .314 .469 133 452 55 115 32 1 21 68 40 109 2 1
Mike Colangelo       lf 30 .260 .332 .429 82 231 34 60 13 1 8 31 21 68 1 1
Dan Uggla           2b 27 .268 .332 .438 138 518 86 139 23 4 19 73 44 115 7 6
Cody Ross           rf 26 .231 .309 .398 103 294 41 68 15 2 10 38 30 80 2 1
Mark Little         rf 34 .248 .322 .391 80 202 25 50 10 2 5 21 14 76 5 4
Joe Borchard#        cf 28 .232 .307 .390 118 328 42 76 14 1 12 38 32 112 3 3
Chris Aguila         lf 28 .251 .312 .366 110 295 36 74 15 2 5 33 25 78 6 4
Jason Stokes         1b 25 .221 .298 .387 103 375 48 83 20 0 14 45 40 154 2 2
Tom Wilson           c   36 .229 .304 .366 73 205 24 47 13 0 5 23 21 69 1 1
Mike Kinkade         3b 34 .244 .314 .353 102 295 38 72 15 1 5 30 19 60 4 4
Miguel Olivo         c   28 .244 .276 .411 120 389 46 95 19 2 14 54 12 105 5 3
Reggie Abercrombie     cf 26 .236 .282 .414 106 297 46 70 13 2 12 36 16 90 10 6
Angel Molina         rf 25 .238 .302 .348 115 408 42 97 19 1 8 55 35 95 3 4
Alfredo Amezaga#      cf 29 .247 .319 .324 114 275 32 68 8 2 3 27 27 46 12 9
Jamie Athas*        ss 27 .237 .288 .328 90 253 29 60 10 2 3 22 16 50 8 3
Eric Reed*          cf 26 .248 .289 .340 114 391 51 97 17 5 3 26 20 114 19 10
Drew Niles#          2b 30 .227 .302 .304 88 207 19 47 8 1 2 17 21 61 2 2
Matt Treanor         c   31 .211 .305 .286 72 175 18 37 7 0 2 17 20 44 0 1
Robert Andino         ss 23 .211 .260 .282 143 532 58 112 22 2 4 33 33 136 11 7

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Jeremy Hermida
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .286 .397 .504 137 413 75 118 29 2 19 62 73 88 11 1
Mean         .254 .359 .426 131 397 59 101 24 1 14 48 61 95 8 2
Pessimistic (15%) .230 .328 .352 95 287 36 66 14 0 7 27 41 77 4 2

The best part about running optimistic and pessimistic scenarios?  You get to weasel out of
the harder projections!  Like ZiPS, I have a hard time figuring out what to make of Hermida. 
Luckily, the Marlins will still consider themselves rebuilding and will give Hermida some time
to be healthy and get rid of some of the question marks, whether for good or ill.

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Dontrelle Willis*      25   3.77 15 11 33 33   222.0 220   93 20   68 154
Chris Resop           24   3.86   4   3 59   0   70.0   68   30   5   25   59
Josh Johnson         23   3.97 10   8 31 25   154.0 142   68 12   64 122
Taylor Tankersley*      24   4.02   4   4 69   0   65.0   51   29   5   40   73
Scott Olsen*          23   4.19 10   9 28 28   159.0 147   74 21   59 147
Anibal Sanchez         23   4.22 10   9 30 29   175.0 167   82 20   63 140
Joe Borowski         36   4.28   3   3 63   0   61.0   56   29   6   28   53
Renyel Pinto*        24   4.53   6   6 35 22   135.0 122   68 11   79 126
Ricky Nolasco         24   4.68   9 10 31 24   150.0 161   78 22   42 110
Jeff Fulchino         27   4.70   7   9 26 25   138.0 138   72 17   57 106
Sergio Mitre         26   4.72   6   8 28 18   122.0 127   64 16   41   92
Travis Bowyer         25   4.74   3   4 56   0   76.0   61   40   9   54   96
Logan Kensing         24   4.76   3   3 37   2   51.0   48   27   8   22   52
Yusmeiro Petit         22   4.86   6   7 28 20   126.0 137   68 25   24 102
Gaby Hernandez         21   4.95   6   9 24 23   129.0 138   71 15   51   88
Jose Garcia           22   4.98   9 11 28 24   161.0 174   89 25   51 110
Randy Messenger       25   5.00   3   5 63   0   72.0   73   40   9   34   58
Jason Vargas*        24   5.02   7   9 29 24   147.0 150   82 21   65 116
Nic Ungs             27   5.07   7 10 25 24   142.0 155   80 22   45   88
Matt Herges           37   5.18   2   3 61   0   66.0   76   38   8   23   38
Jesus Delgado         23   5.19   3   5 31   0   59.0   59   34   4   37   42
Chris George*        27   5.28   5   9 27 21   133.0 145   78 17   57   84
Brian Moehler         35   5.32   7 10 30 22   132.0 158   78 18   38   66
Bart Miadich         31   5.53   3   6 53   0   57.0   46   35   7   50   71
Adam Bostick*        24   5.68   6 11 27 27   149.0 158   94 21   87 108
Joe Horgan*          30   5.80   3   6 54   0   59.0   64   38 10   28   42
Carlos Martinez       25   6.32   2   4 42   0   57.0   67   40 12   22   39
Scott Tyler           24   7.40   1   2 48   0   62.0   67   51   9   55   40
Kevin Cave           27   7.90   1   5 43   0   49.0   56   43 10   39   32

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) -  Dontrelle Willis
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.19 19   9 34 34 234 216   83 16   65 167
Mean           3.77 15 11 33 33 222 220   93 20   68 154
Pessimistic (15%)  4.40 11 11 28 28 182 191   89 20   61 123

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 03, 2006 at 03:06 PM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: November 03, 2006 at 03:41 PM (#2230853)
Isn't Cabrera going to be 24?
   2. AROM Posted: November 03, 2006 at 03:44 PM (#2230855)
Even with bad defense, is Cabrera the second best player in baseball now?

Considering only future projections. My catchers, Mauer and McCann, have got to be up there as well.
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 03, 2006 at 04:35 PM (#2230908)
Yes, Cabrera's going to be 24 - must have originally put the wrong year in DMB (though the projection is for 24).
   4. Kyle S Posted: November 03, 2006 at 04:39 PM (#2230911)
ARoM, i'd say yes.
   5. Mike Green Posted: November 03, 2006 at 04:58 PM (#2230920)
If you mean "best player now", Cabrera is certainly behind Johan Santana as well as Pujols. If you mean "most valuable property", Cabrera is right there. When you make the league and position adjustments though, there is not a great deal of distance between Cabrera and a number of younger players in the AL including Mauer.

The projections are likely to show the Marlins considerably behind the Braves for 2007. That is probably right.
   6. WeGotWood98 Posted: November 03, 2006 at 06:22 PM (#2230973)
What happened to Scott Olsen? Do they think he'll get hurt?
   7. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 03, 2006 at 06:42 PM (#2230989)
Gee, that's a lot of young pitching.
   8. JPWF13 Posted: November 03, 2006 at 06:52 PM (#2230994)
projecting Stokes to get 375 at bats (at any level) seems a bit absurd
   9. Mister High Standards Posted: November 03, 2006 at 09:54 PM (#2231140)
Beltran > Cabrera.
   10. Hungry Hungry Hipolito Pichardo Posted: November 03, 2006 at 10:00 PM (#2231151)
Hanley's not a switch-hitter.
   11. Honkie Kong Posted: November 03, 2006 at 10:14 PM (#2231163)
marlins would be a good team when they manage to get a major league quality played to play CF for them.
Zips seems to predict a regression towards the ordinary for the pitching staff. I think they might have a breakout candidate in Olsen.
   12. karkface killah Posted: November 03, 2006 at 10:15 PM (#2231164)
Hey! I've had a beer with Nic Ungs!
   13. shoewizard Posted: November 03, 2006 at 10:22 PM (#2231173)
I don't understand the 146 K's for Cabrera

PA/K's since 2003

2003-4.12 (84 in 346PA)
2004-4.63 (148 in 685PA)
2005-5.48 (125 in 685PA)
2006-6.26 (108 in 676PA)

The 146 K's projected for 2007 comes out to a K every 4.76 PA, or back to his sophomore year levels. That certainly does not appear to be the trend, and is very counterintuitive.
   14. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 03, 2006 at 10:31 PM (#2231187)
ZIPS does not heart Petit or Mike Jacobs. All things considered, it appears Minaya did well in his dealings with Beinfest.

I'll take the over on Hanley's projection.
   15. Walt Davis Posted: November 03, 2006 at 10:49 PM (#2231193)
projecting Stokes to get 375 at bats (at any level) seems a bit absurd

"Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007."

OK, I preferred the old, pithier version of that statement which was something like "ZIPS does not project playing time" or some such.

Now, I'll grant, I've never quite known where ZIPS variation in PA did come from. Why not just put everyone on a 500 PA basis? But the wonderful freeness of ZIPS helps me accept Dan's eccentricities. :-)
   16. Walt Davis Posted: November 03, 2006 at 10:54 PM (#2231202)
Oh yeah, the point at hand ...

Given the park that looks like a pretty decent offense in desparate need of a C and CF. When Joe Borchard projects as your best CF option, you might want to look elsewhere.

And good lord, that's this Tom Wilson? That's their best projected C? (I know, Olivo's the starter)

Hmmm... not sure that link's gonna look right, oh well.

Given the park, I'd guess the pitching overall looks league average or a bit worse.
   17. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: November 03, 2006 at 11:38 PM (#2231233)
Dave Roberts seems like a Marlins kinda guy.
   18. The Adam Dunn Effort #44 Posted: November 04, 2006 at 01:47 AM (#2231314)
Joe Borchard can hit 12 HR's in his sleep. I guess the projections do not forsee him playing very much.
   19. StatFreak101 Posted: November 04, 2006 at 05:27 AM (#2231393)
Not too friendly of projections for guys like Hanley, Olsen, Hermida, & Jacobs.

Any reason why?
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 04, 2006 at 07:09 AM (#2231414)
I don't understand the 146 K's for Cabrera

Neither do I - that does seem a bit odd and re-running the numbers, I'm getting 123 K's.

Not too friendly of projections for guys like Hanley, Olsen, Hermida, & Jacobs.

Any reason why?


"Sophomore jinx" does exist and is applicable for the first two, but not for the conventional wisdom reason. It's simply that the Mike Piazza Constant Improvement is an atypical growth curve for a young player.

Players that take huge steps forward like Ramirez did (271/335/385 in Portland, Maine to 294/355/483 in Florida, so it was damn huge) usually drop back down somewhat, even very young, talented ones. Olsen's step back is less because he overachieved less.

As for Hermida, while the start and the end of the year were ruined by injury, he really wasn't very good in between.

That just leaves Jacobs - essentially, that's the same season he just had when you take into account offense dropping off a bit. At this point, he's about as good as he's going to get and it's unlikely he'll be around once he starts to decline as slow, mid-power platoon guys tend to age very badly.
   21. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: November 04, 2006 at 08:24 AM (#2231433)
Neither do I - that does seem a bit odd and re-running the numbers, I'm getting 123 K's.


What are his other numbers after that? If they're the same, I'm taking the over.
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 04, 2006 at 08:41 AM (#2231437)
What are his other numbers after that?

Same.
   23. DCW3 Posted: November 04, 2006 at 08:52 AM (#2231440)
Beltran > Cabrera.

In 2006, maybe. But considering how much better Cabrera was than Beltran in 2005, and how much younger he is, there's no way Beltran's a better bet going forward.
   24. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 04, 2006 at 09:49 AM (#2231451)
Unless Cabrera keeps gaining 50 pounds a year.
   25. DCW3 Posted: November 04, 2006 at 09:54 AM (#2231452)
True enough, I suppose. Maybe Dan needs to put a "FAT" column alongside the other stats.

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