Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Miguel Cabrera lf 23 .319 .388 .570 162 626 112 200 36 2 39 131 69 146 3 1
Josh Willingham lf 28 .270 .365 .467 143 482 65 130 27 1 22 73 66 124 3 1
Wes Helms 1b 31 .286 .355 .450 128 262 28 75 15 2 8 42 24 62 0 2
Jeremy Hermida* rf 23 .254 .357 .426 131 397 59 101 24 1 14 48 61 95 8 2
Hanley Ramirez# ss 23 .277 .338 .439 152 599 113 166 40 9 13 52 54 117 40 13
Mike Jacobs* 1b 26 .254 .314 .469 133 452 55 115 32 1 21 68 40 109 2 1
Mike Colangelo lf 30 .260 .332 .429 82 231 34 60 13 1 8 31 21 68 1 1
Dan Uggla 2b 27 .268 .332 .438 138 518 86 139 23 4 19 73 44 115 7 6
Cody Ross rf 26 .231 .309 .398 103 294 41 68 15 2 10 38 30 80 2 1
Mark Little rf 34 .248 .322 .391 80 202 25 50 10 2 5 21 14 76 5 4
Joe Borchard# cf 28 .232 .307 .390 118 328 42 76 14 1 12 38 32 112 3 3
Chris Aguila lf 28 .251 .312 .366 110 295 36 74 15 2 5 33 25 78 6 4
Jason Stokes 1b 25 .221 .298 .387 103 375 48 83 20 0 14 45 40 154 2 2
Tom Wilson c 36 .229 .304 .366 73 205 24 47 13 0 5 23 21 69 1 1
Mike Kinkade 3b 34 .244 .314 .353 102 295 38 72 15 1 5 30 19 60 4 4
Miguel Olivo c 28 .244 .276 .411 120 389 46 95 19 2 14 54 12 105 5 3
Reggie Abercrombie cf 26 .236 .282 .414 106 297 46 70 13 2 12 36 16 90 10 6
Angel Molina rf 25 .238 .302 .348 115 408 42 97 19 1 8 55 35 95 3 4
Alfredo Amezaga# cf 29 .247 .319 .324 114 275 32 68 8 2 3 27 27 46 12 9
Jamie Athas* ss 27 .237 .288 .328 90 253 29 60 10 2 3 22 16 50 8 3
Eric Reed* cf 26 .248 .289 .340 114 391 51 97 17 5 3 26 20 114 19 10
Drew Niles# 2b 30 .227 .302 .304 88 207 19 47 8 1 2 17 21 61 2 2
Matt Treanor c 31 .211 .305 .286 72 175 18 37 7 0 2 17 20 44 0 1
Robert Andino ss 23 .211 .260 .282 143 532 58 112 22 2 4 33 33 136 11 7
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Jeremy Hermida
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .286 .397 .504 137 413 75 118 29 2 19 62 73 88 11 1
Mean .254 .359 .426 131 397 59 101 24 1 14 48 61 95 8 2
Pessimistic (15%) .230 .328 .352 95 287 36 66 14 0 7 27 41 77 4 2
The best part about running optimistic and pessimistic scenarios? You get to weasel out of
the harder projections! Like ZiPS, I have a hard time figuring out what to make of Hermida.
Luckily, the Marlins will still consider themselves rebuilding and will give Hermida some time
to be healthy and get rid of some of the question marks, whether for good or ill.
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Dontrelle Willis* 25 3.77 15 11 33 33 222.0 220 93 20 68 154
Chris Resop 24 3.86 4 3 59 0 70.0 68 30 5 25 59
Josh Johnson 23 3.97 10 8 31 25 154.0 142 68 12 64 122
Taylor Tankersley* 24 4.02 4 4 69 0 65.0 51 29 5 40 73
Scott Olsen* 23 4.19 10 9 28 28 159.0 147 74 21 59 147
Anibal Sanchez 23 4.22 10 9 30 29 175.0 167 82 20 63 140
Joe Borowski 36 4.28 3 3 63 0 61.0 56 29 6 28 53
Renyel Pinto* 24 4.53 6 6 35 22 135.0 122 68 11 79 126
Ricky Nolasco 24 4.68 9 10 31 24 150.0 161 78 22 42 110
Jeff Fulchino 27 4.70 7 9 26 25 138.0 138 72 17 57 106
Sergio Mitre 26 4.72 6 8 28 18 122.0 127 64 16 41 92
Travis Bowyer 25 4.74 3 4 56 0 76.0 61 40 9 54 96
Logan Kensing 24 4.76 3 3 37 2 51.0 48 27 8 22 52
Yusmeiro Petit 22 4.86 6 7 28 20 126.0 137 68 25 24 102
Gaby Hernandez 21 4.95 6 9 24 23 129.0 138 71 15 51 88
Jose Garcia 22 4.98 9 11 28 24 161.0 174 89 25 51 110
Randy Messenger 25 5.00 3 5 63 0 72.0 73 40 9 34 58
Jason Vargas* 24 5.02 7 9 29 24 147.0 150 82 21 65 116
Nic Ungs 27 5.07 7 10 25 24 142.0 155 80 22 45 88
Matt Herges 37 5.18 2 3 61 0 66.0 76 38 8 23 38
Jesus Delgado 23 5.19 3 5 31 0 59.0 59 34 4 37 42
Chris George* 27 5.28 5 9 27 21 133.0 145 78 17 57 84
Brian Moehler 35 5.32 7 10 30 22 132.0 158 78 18 38 66
Bart Miadich 31 5.53 3 6 53 0 57.0 46 35 7 50 71
Adam Bostick* 24 5.68 6 11 27 27 149.0 158 94 21 87 108
Joe Horgan* 30 5.80 3 6 54 0 59.0 64 38 10 28 42
Carlos Martinez 25 6.32 2 4 42 0 57.0 67 40 12 22 39
Scott Tyler 24 7.40 1 2 48 0 62.0 67 51 9 55 40
Kevin Cave 27 7.90 1 5 43 0 49.0 56 43 10 39 32
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Dontrelle Willis
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.19 19 9 34 34 234 216 83 16 65 167
Mean 3.77 15 11 33 33 222 220 93 20 68 154
Pessimistic (15%) 4.40 11 11 28 28 182 191 89 20 61 123
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.
Reader Comments and Retorts
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1. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: November 03, 2006 at 03:41 PM (#2230853)Considering only future projections. My catchers, Mauer and McCann, have got to be up there as well.
The projections are likely to show the Marlins considerably behind the Braves for 2007. That is probably right.
Zips seems to predict a regression towards the ordinary for the pitching staff. I think they might have a breakout candidate in Olsen.
PA/K's since 2003
2003-4.12 (84 in 346PA)
2004-4.63 (148 in 685PA)
2005-5.48 (125 in 685PA)
2006-6.26 (108 in 676PA)
The 146 K's projected for 2007 comes out to a K every 4.76 PA, or back to his sophomore year levels. That certainly does not appear to be the trend, and is very counterintuitive.
I'll take the over on Hanley's projection.
"Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007."
OK, I preferred the old, pithier version of that statement which was something like "ZIPS does not project playing time" or some such.
Now, I'll grant, I've never quite known where ZIPS variation in PA did come from. Why not just put everyone on a 500 PA basis? But the wonderful freeness of ZIPS helps me accept Dan's eccentricities. :-)
Given the park that looks like a pretty decent offense in desparate need of a C and CF. When Joe Borchard projects as your best CF option, you might want to look elsewhere.
And good lord, that's this Tom Wilson? That's their best projected C? (I know, Olivo's the starter)
Hmmm... not sure that link's gonna look right, oh well.
Given the park, I'd guess the pitching overall looks league average or a bit worse.
Any reason why?
Neither do I - that does seem a bit odd and re-running the numbers, I'm getting 123 K's.
Not too friendly of projections for guys like Hanley, Olsen, Hermida, & Jacobs.
Any reason why?
"Sophomore jinx" does exist and is applicable for the first two, but not for the conventional wisdom reason. It's simply that the Mike Piazza Constant Improvement is an atypical growth curve for a young player.
Players that take huge steps forward like Ramirez did (271/335/385 in Portland, Maine to 294/355/483 in Florida, so it was damn huge) usually drop back down somewhat, even very young, talented ones. Olsen's step back is less because he overachieved less.
As for Hermida, while the start and the end of the year were ruined by injury, he really wasn't very good in between.
That just leaves Jacobs - essentially, that's the same season he just had when you take into account offense dropping off a bit. At this point, he's about as good as he's going to get and it's unlikely he'll be around once he starts to decline as slow, mid-power platoon guys tend to age very badly.
What are his other numbers after that? If they're the same, I'm taking the over.
Same.
In 2006, maybe. But considering how much better Cabrera was than Beltran in 2005, and how much younger he is, there's no way Beltran's a better bet going forward.
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