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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, November 05, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections - Houston Astros


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Lance Berkman#        1b 31 .301 .414 .558 152 529 91 159 32 1 34 109 102 104 5 3
Morgan Ensberg       3b 31 .261 .373 .471 128 418 62 109 21 2 21 66 72 89 3 4
Luke Scott*          lf 29 .259 .340 .501 142 479 65 124 30 4 26 79 57 100 4 1
Hunter Pence         rf 24 .276 .339 .506 139 504 69 139 27 4 27 80 48 107 9 4
Aubrey Huff*        3b 30 .281 .348 .474 139 513 70 144 26 2 23 83 48 97 3 2
Mike Lamb*          1b 31 .287 .342 .466 118 328 51 94 17 3 12 45 28 57 2 2
Jason Lane           rf 30 .246 .324 .451 117 350 47 86 19 1 17 53 38 85 3 2
Chris Burke         2b 27 .269 .336 .407 125 398 66 107 24 2 9 38 34 77 17 7
Alan Zinter#        1b 39 .236 .317 .416 81 178 20 42 9 1 7 28 21 54 1 0
Craig Biggio         2b 41 .255 .311 .419 137 530 78 135 33 0 18 52 35 87 5 1
Willy Taveras         cf 25 .290 .338 .364 151 549 87 159 21 4 4 33 35 92 35 14
Cody Ransom         ss 31 .237 .303 .421 113 316 35 75 17 1 13 41 29 86 3 1
Walter Young*        1b 27 .259 .302 .425 127 440 46 114 22 0 17 69 25 99 2 3
Humberto Quintero     c   27 .269 .311 .395 91 301 33 81 20 0 6 35 16 48 2 1
Brooks Conrad#        2b 27 .235 .300 .421 132 480 68 113 29 6 16 61 43 124 10 4
Jeff Bagwell         1b 39 .233 .318 .390 138 464 65 108 20 1 17 68 54 127 5 4
Eric Munson*        c   29 .230 .297 .426 81 256 33 59 11 0 13 37 22 66 0 1
Orlando Palmeiro*      lf 38 .261 .329 .359 98 142 16 37 9 1 1 14 12 17 2 1
Hector Gimenez#      c   24 .260 .310 .380 108 384 37 100 13 0 11 49 27 69 1 2
Eric Bruntlett       2b 29 .239 .323 .359 107 251 37 60 11 2 5 26 29 53 8 4
Barry Wesson         cf 30 .257 .293 .366 118 366 42 94 18 2 6 39 18 86 5 2
Charlton Jimerson     rf 27 .238 .278 .418 134 462 55 110 23 3 18 42 24 167 18 10
Tike Redman*        cf 30 .254 .295 .341 108 355 40 90 15 2 4 29 20 35 7 4
Josh Anderson*        cf 24 .264 .300 .335 145 591 72 156 25 4 3 37 28 86 26 14
Adam Everett         ss 30 .241 .287 .339 125 440 49 106 21 2 6 40 25 74 9 3
Brad Ausmus         c   38 .232 .309 .284 106 328 27 76 14 0 1 31 35 52 2 2

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Morgan Ensberg
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .282 .400 .553 140 458 78 129 28 3 27 85 86 87 4 2
Mean         .261 .373 .471 128 418 62 109 21 2 21 66 72 89 3 4
Pessimistic (15%) .241 .345 .414 90 295 38 71 13 1 12 40 45 67 1 3

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Roger Clemens         44   2.77 14   5 29 29   179.0 144   55 13   59 166
Roy Oswalt           29   3.17 18   9 34 34   233.0 222   82 21   51 184
Dan Wheeler           29   3.46   4   2 65   0   65.0   66   25   8   21   61
Brad Lidge           30   3.51   5   3 75   0   77.0   63   30   8   30 106
Trever Miller*        34   3.75   2   2 64   1   48.0   44   20   5   18   45
Andy Pettitte*        35   3.94 13 11 32 31   194.0 195   85 22   56 154
Chad Qualls           28   4.11   5   5 78   0   81.0   80   37   9   27   55
Russ Springer         38   4.17   2   2 62   0   54.0   50   25   8   19   43
Dave Borkowski         30   4.18   8   8 35 19   140.0 143   65 18   41   95
Chris Sampson         29   4.32   8   8 35 20   146.0 163   70 21   23   68
Taylor Buchholz       25   4.43   8   8 26 22   132.0 133   65 20   46   91
Jason Hirsh           25   4.47 11 11 30 30   169.0 166   84 21   72 127
Paul Estrada         24   4.55   6   7 52   1   89.0   80   45 15   44   85
Travis Driskill       35   4.64   5   7 45   5   95.0 101   49 18   25   68
Fernando Nieve         24   4.78   5   6 33 19   130.0 125   69 24   56 111
Juan Gutierrez         23   4.85   6   8 23 21   117.0 120   63 17   52   84
Matt Albers           24   4.90   8 10 27 26   156.0 156   85 19   75 106
Brandon Backe         29   4.94   7   9 29 20   124.0 124   68 17   56   88
Mark McLemore*        26   4.98   3   5 18 12   65.0   62   36   8   41   47
Troy Patton*          21   4.99   7 11 26 26   139.0 148   77 20   57 100
Chance Douglass       23   5.00   7 10 28 26   162.0 176   90 22   68   88
Wandy Rodriguez*      25   5.07   9 14 32 29   165.0 171   93 22   74 115
Jared Gothreaux       27   5.09   6 10 26 24   138.0 157   78 23   41   74
Mike Gallo*          29   5.14   2   3 65   0   63.0   71   36   9   27   36
Ezequiel Astacio       27   5.15   7 10 30 23   138.0 142   79 25   53 108
Jimmy Barthmaier       23   5.63   7 12 27 26   144.0 152   90 15   92 106
Steve Kent*          28   6.07   1   2 37   0   40.0   44   27   5   28   21
Felipe Paulino         23   6.37   4 10 26 22   113.0 128   80 22   69   61

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) -  Roy Oswalt
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  2.70 21   7 35 35 240 216   72 18   47 193
Mean           3.17 18   9 34 34 233 222   82 21   51 184
Pessimistic (15%)  3.74 13 10 29 28 190 195   79 22   45 143

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 05, 2006 at 03:17 PM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Frisco Cali Posted: November 05, 2006 at 03:49 PM (#2231872)
Free Brad Ausmus!
   2. AROM Posted: November 05, 2006 at 04:15 PM (#2231879)
Looking at the projections for Jedimaster Scott and Hunter Pence, I can see why signing Carlos Lee for 13-14 million is critical for this team.
   3. AROM Posted: November 05, 2006 at 04:16 PM (#2231880)
If I'm gonna say Jedimaster Scott I should just go all the way and call the other guy Bounty Hunter Pence.
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 05, 2006 at 04:55 PM (#2231884)
Tike Redman? They'll let anybody into the club, I guess...
   5. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 05, 2006 at 05:41 PM (#2231892)
So I take it ZiPS doesn't believe in post-age-40 collapses.
   6. Jim Wisinski Posted: November 05, 2006 at 06:14 PM (#2231904)
Where's the projection for the number of times Huff grounds out to second and jogs down the line?
   7. AROM Posted: November 05, 2006 at 06:32 PM (#2231914)
After ERA's of 1.87 and 2.30, That is a collapse for Roger.
   8. greenback calls it soccer Posted: November 05, 2006 at 06:41 PM (#2231919)
I suppose, but 2005 was one of them their DIPS outlier years.
   9. dreamydave Posted: November 05, 2006 at 07:05 PM (#2231926)
The Astros are an interesting team. They've got pitching, and they've got Berkman and a bunch of other useful players. But they have absolutley no offense at catcher and short, and very little at second and center. They need to get a new catcher immediately. How many runs a year would they lose with Lamb catching defensively vs. how many would they gain offensively?
   10. baudib Posted: November 05, 2006 at 07:07 PM (#2231928)
63
   11. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 05, 2006 at 07:45 PM (#2231935)
Unless Clemens and Pettitte re-sign, they don't have pitching either.
   12. stubbyc Posted: November 05, 2006 at 08:36 PM (#2231951)
Looking at the projections for Jedimaster Scott and Hunter Pence, I can see why signing Carlos Lee for 13-14 million is critical for this team.

Well, Pence is apparently capable of playing CF too. A Lee, Pence, Scott OF would be defensively challenged though.

A combination of Burke/Biggio at 2b shouldn't be too bad offensively at 2nd either.

The interesting decision this offseason will be what they do with Ensberg. His numbers for the year were good, but a lot of that was tied into his April and May. After May he was terrible. His performance over the past 3 years has varied wildly and it's hard to know what to expect.
   13. caspian88 Posted: November 05, 2006 at 08:38 PM (#2231952)
Would the defensive difference between Cody Ransom and Adam Everett negate the offensive gains of using Ransom as the starting shortstop?
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 05, 2006 at 09:52 PM (#2231966)
So I take it ZiPS doesn't believe in post-age-40 collapses.

Not while peripherals survive, especially peripherals as awesome as Roger's.
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 05, 2006 at 10:02 PM (#2231968)
Would the defensive difference between Cody Ransom and Adam Everett negate the offensive gains of using Ransom as the starting shortstop?

Yes. Ransom's generally thought as OK In That Minor League Organizational Player Sense at short these days while Everett's tremendous. You probably wouldn't be far wrong if you gave Everett a 30 run edge on defense and that's twice the difference between their runs created/500 AB.

Well, Pence is apparently capable of playing CF too. A Lee, Pence, Scott OF would be defensively challenged though.

I can't imagine playing Pence at center in the majors is a realistic scenario.
   16. AROM Posted: November 05, 2006 at 10:58 PM (#2231988)
Its strange the way the Astros look at how to improve the offense. In 2006 they brought in Preston Wilson, who was actually a downgrade from their other corner options. They have several decent corner options for 2007, even with Jason Lane and Mike Lamb projected as backups.

But they are more likely to spend 15 million to improve by at most 5-10 runs (Carlos Lee over current options) than to try and plug the offensive black hole that is Brad Ausmus.

Everett's a black hole on offense too, but at least he makes up for it with his glove.
   17. dreamydave Posted: November 05, 2006 at 11:27 PM (#2231995)
who would be some feasible catching replacements?
   18. stubbyc Posted: November 06, 2006 at 12:08 AM (#2232003)
In 2006 they brought in Preston Wilson, who was actually a downgrade from their other corner options.

Maybe so, but at the time it looked like a reasonable move. With the way Luke Scott looked in some of his major league AB's in '05 it was hard to pencil him into a starting role at the start of '06.

The Astros value defense at catcher more than almost any team at catcher (obviously) which is why they continue to employ Brad Ausmus despite his offense. Clemens said after the '05 World Series that in order to resign him they first needed to resign Ausmus.

Baseball America had a recent article about how much Pence's defense had improved. They described him as above average on the corners and capable in CF. The Astros did try him in CF some in Corpus even with 2 defensively superior CF's on the team (Redman and Anderson).
   19. stubbyc Posted: November 06, 2006 at 12:19 AM (#2232007)
A lot of the young pitchers got pretty good projections. I would be satisfied if Buchholz, Sampson, and Hirsh all matched those projections. Buchholz' peripherals did not matchup with his ERA last year, but he fell apart whenever he got in trouble. Big innings killed him last year.

I think the plan is to make Nieve a full time late inning reliever next year where he would probably beat that ERA projection pretty handily.

Surprisingly low strikeout projection on Estrada.

If nothing else the Astros figure to have a good bullpen once again.
   20. AROM Posted: November 06, 2006 at 02:14 AM (#2232052)
who would be some feasible catching replacements?

How about Bengie Mo?

He's not as good as Ausmus with the glove, but he's all right handling pitchers.
   21. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 06, 2006 at 02:52 PM (#2232173)
Dan, would you mind running J.R. House?
   22. Azteca Posted: November 06, 2006 at 04:20 PM (#2232220)
about Ransom: for years, Baseball America raved about his defense at short. Haven't heard anything lately, and I doubt he would take p.t. from Everett, so it's probably no matter.

A question: how did House become a free agent? Was he a 6-year minor league FA? Or, was he simply dropped from the 40-man roster?
   23. Russ Posted: November 06, 2006 at 06:14 PM (#2232300)
A question: how did House become a free agent? Was he a 6-year minor league FA? Or, was he simply dropped from the 40-man roster?

Originally he was in the Pirates organization. That should tell you how he became a FA (i.e. pick the answer that most reflects badly on the organization).
   24. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 06, 2006 at 07:32 PM (#2232356)
about Ransom: for years, Baseball America raved about his defense at short. Haven't heard anything lately,

I've heard he's lost a few steps (unfortunately, he never really played much in my area's minor leagues)
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 06, 2006 at 07:34 PM (#2232357)
That should tell you how he became a FA (i.e. pick the answer that most reflects badly on the organization).

The elves cobbling Dave Littlefield's shoes at night told him that J.R. House was secretly plotting a Huguenot uprising that would turn the Nuttings into peanut brittle?
   26. 1k5v3L Posted: November 10, 2006 at 04:57 PM (#2234559)
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/4324080.html

Nov. 9, 2006, 7:17PM
Biggio to sign 1-year Astros deal, sources say

By BRIAN McTAGGART
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle

The Astros will hold a press conference Friday to announce a one-year contract agreement with second baseman Craig Biggio slightly more than $5 million, according to people close to the negotiations.

Biggio, who will turn 41 next month, will return for his 20th season with the Astros next year, needing just 70 hits to become the first player in team history and 27th all-time to reach the 3,000-hit total.

Biggio hit .246 with 21 homers and 62 RBIs last year while making $4 million. He was scheduled to return home to Houston today from a hunting trip to south Texas and will be at Minute Maid Park on Friday.

Biggio had to sign with the Astros by Saturday or file for free agency. Saturday is the final day players can file for free agency, and teams can begin negotiations with other teams’ free agents Sunday.
   27. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 10, 2006 at 05:02 PM (#2234563)
House was dropped from the 40-man, and once that happened he became a six-year minor league FA.

-- MWE
   28. Hooked on Phoenix Posted: November 16, 2006 at 12:36 AM (#2239030)
House just signed a minor league deal with Baltimore - here's the link.

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