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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, November 06, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Alex Gordon*        3b 23 .275 .361 .473 139 491 63 135 35 1 20 72 56 137 15 4
Ryan Shealy         1b 27 .288 .349 .479 128 451 71 130 30 1 18 77 39 128 2 1
Mark Teahen*        3b 25 .277 .349 .461 145 505 77 140 34 7 15 72 56 119 8 1
Mike Sweeney         dh 33 .275 .338 .470 88 334 42 92 23 0 14 54 29 50 2 0
Billy Butler         rf 21 .292 .339 .447 142 535 68 156 36 1 15 79 35 94 1 0
Emil Brown           rf 32 .281 .343 .438 139 498 67 140 32 2 14 69 45 94 6 2
David DeJesus*        lf 27 .287 .355 .431 128 501 81 144 31 4 11 55 46 76 8 6
Justin Huber         1b 24 .272 .337 .456 127 430 57 117 27 2 16 60 42 106 4 3
Esteban German       2b 29 .290 .359 .386 108 352 66 102 19 3 3 39 37 53 15 5
Doug Mientkiewicz*    1b 33 .255 .342 .383 101 329 41 84 22 1 6 36 42 51 2 1
Reggie Sanders       rf 39 .252 .312 .438 80 274 39 69 16 1 11 38 23 71 8 3
Chris Lubanski*      lf 22 .259 .323 .421 159 591 80 153 39 6 15 67 55 152 8 6
Chad Allen           rf 32 .286 .327 .409 93 350 35 100 21 2 6 46 21 59 4 5
John Buck           c   26 .251 .307 .432 116 387 47 97 20 1 16 51 29 87 1 1
Mark Grudzielanek     2b 37 .288 .327 .382 117 458 64 132 27 2 4 42 25 62 2 2
Mike Coolbaugh       1b 35 .237 .305 .421 87 304 47 72 17 0 13 46 28 72 2 1
Jeff Keppinger       2b 27 .286 .338 .360 115 419 48 120 17 1 4 35 33 27 3 3
Shane Costa*        lf 25 .267 .305 .401 129 446 46 119 29 2 9 43 21 52 5 0
Mitch Maier*        cf 25 .260 .303 .419 148 554 78 144 40 3 14 71 32 111 9 8
Joey Gathright*      cf 26 .269 .335 .330 135 409 66 110 16 3 1 32 37 78 29 15
Angel Berroa         ss 29 .252 .288 .365 136 507 59 128 21 3 10 50 20 94 7 4
Mike Aviles         3b 26 .246 .284 .365 133 480 53 118 26 2 9 49 25 52 7 5
Kila Kaaihue*        1b 23 .219 .300 .315 137 447 50 98 22 0 7 46 50 103 0 1
Angel Sanchez         ss 23 .256 .300 .322 146 571 85 146 25 2 3 43 34 64 5 7
Dee Brown*          rf 29 .233 .278 .347 127 429 47 100 18 2 9 47 19 104 7 5
Donnie Murphy         2b 24 .224 .265 .368 97 353 35 79 22 1 9 31 17 64 3 3
Paul Phillips         c   30 .241 .279 .335 92 319 34 77 13 1 5 30 16 36 1 2
Andres Blanco#        ss 23 .231 .283 .293 124 376 35 87 12 4 1 26 24 50 3 5
Rick Bell           1b 28 .225 .262 .310 114 378 36 85 18 1 4 31 18 70 2 2
Paul Bako*          c   35 .201 .265 .224 48 134   9 27 3 0 0   9 11 39 0 1

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Alex Gordon
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .294 .393 .519 150 530 79 156 42 1 25 87 70 137 21 3
Mean         .275 .361 .473 139 491 63 135 35 1 20 72 56 137 15 4
Pessimistic (15%) .247 .323 .412 124 437 47 108 27 0 15 54 43 132 9 4

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Joe Nelson           32   4.35   3   2 54   0   60.0   56   29   6   29   56
Joel Peralta         31   4.50   2   3 56   0   66.0   68   33   9   21   51
Luke Hudson           30   4.57   8   9 31 20   128.0 130   65 13   47   84
Esteban Yan           32   4.70   2   2 51   0   69.0   71   36   9   30   47
Odalis Perez*        30   4.75   7   7 29 24   142.0 159   75 17   36   86
Ryan Braun           26   4.76   4   5 48   0   70.0   72   37   8   35   49
Zack Greinke         23   4.76   8 10 28 27   157.0 175   83 22   42   95
Scott Dohmann         29   5.05   3   3 61   0   66.0   66   37 10   31   63
Todd Wellemeyer       28   5.05   2   4 39   5   73.0   75   41   8   42   53
Luke Hochevar         23   5.09   7   9 22 22   122.0 122   69 17   67 101
Leo Nunez           23   5.14   3   4 52   0   77.0   83   44 11   29   51
Billy Buckner         23   5.16   7 11 29 29   164.0 176   94 19   86 111
Andrew Sisco*        24   5.16   2   3 66   0   68.0   70   39   8   37   59
Denny Tamayo         28   5.17   7   9 25 23   134.0 149   77 22   45   83
Jimmy Gobble*        25   5.17   6   8 43 17   120.0 134   69 18   41   72
Ed Yarnall*          31   5.25   3   5 24 13   84.0   91   49 11   37   58
Mark Redman*          33   5.32   8 13 31 31   176.0 204 104 21   64   92
Ambiorix Burgos       23   5.38   4   5 69   0   72.0   76   43 13   36   71
Brandon Duckworth       31   5.39   6 10 26 20   122.0 138   73 15   48   73
Brian Bass           25   5.40   6   9 21 20   115.0 131   69 14   50   63
Scott Elarton         31   5.41   6 10 27 27   153.0 171   92 26   56   83
Andy van Hekken*      27   5.42   4   7 25 17   103.0 117   62 13   42   56
Jorge de la Rosa*      26   5.55   5   8 32 18   99.0 107   61 13   52   70
Runelvys Hernandez     29   5.69   9 16 31 30   166.0 192 105 22   77   86
Bob Keppel           25   5.84   4   7 21 14   91.0 118   59 13   27   31
Ken Ray             32   5.95   1   2 59   0   56.0   63   37   8   33   32
Barry Armitage         28   6.32   2   5 40   1   74.0   87   52 10   40   44
Juan Cedeno*          23   6.78   3   7 34 10   85.0   96   64 10   77   45

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) -  Zach Greinke
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  4.02 11 10 31 30 177 184   79 21   41 112
Mean           4.76   8 10 28 27 157 175   83 22   42   95
Pessimistic (15%)  5.77   5 10 23 23 128 153   82 24   39   76

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:27 PM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:46 PM (#2232435)
I think Shealy will hit for more HR power than projected.

Berroa is probably even worse than what you projected him for.

Projecting Greinke is like throwing darts. I have no idea what we should expect out of him. You could say the same thing for Mark Teahen, Andrew Sisco, Ambriorix Burgos, and Luke Hudson.

The potential of a really good lineup, but the pitching is still positively putrid.
   2. Kyle S Posted: November 06, 2006 at 09:59 PM (#2232447)
Wow. Highest projected OBP is from a rookie, and it's only .361. Highest projected SLG under .480. Not a lot of reason to be optimistic, imho, except for gordon.
   3. Kyle S Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:01 PM (#2232453)
put it this way - check out the other zips projections - do you see any where the highest HR total is 20? yikes.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:06 PM (#2232456)
The next time you overhear someone talking about your favorite team and saying "strikeouts are overrated, x team needs to stop worrying about the sex factor of strikeouts and start teaching pitching to contact," make sure to point the Royals to them.
   5. Azteca Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:07 PM (#2232457)
The vets #s--Sanders, Grudz & Brown--also look pretty ugly. It's going to take a lot of work to move those guys off the roster.

Also, I wonder if German is really capable of a .359 OBP? I suppose he'll start the year as a utility, but he could easily work his way into an everyday role.
   6. bibigon Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:11 PM (#2232462)
Is a 4.35 ERA going to be the worst ERA projected to lead a team?
   7. bibigon Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:18 PM (#2232469)
Alex Gordon also has the weakest OPS of any team leader posted so far.

Any chance the Royals grab #1 spots in these rankings?
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:20 PM (#2232471)
Is a 4.35 ERA going to be the worst ERA projected to lead a team?

I'd be shocked if it wasn't! It was really funny doing the Angels right after the Royals. A 4.35 ERA ranks *12th* on the Angels (behind K-Rod, Weaver, Shields, Carrasco, Escobar, Lackey, Donnelly, Santana, Romero, Gregg, and Bulger).

Odalis Perez is the best projected full-time starter here, at a 4.76 ERA and I have the Angels having a whole rotation plus one better than that (Weaver, Escobar, Lackey, Santana, Saunders and Colon in that order).
   9. HowardMegdal Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:22 PM (#2232473)
Also, isn't the general consensus that Gordon will start next season at AAA?
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:24 PM (#2232475)
Any chance the Royals grab #1 spots in these rankings?

Pretty good, especially with the pitchers.
   11. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:26 PM (#2232477)
I got Gathright for $16 in a 10 team AL only league. I was debating keeping him but a .335 OBP just isn't worth carrying him for the stolen bases. My mind could be changed though. I already have a bunch of wimps on that team in Luis Castillo ($14), Y. Betancourt ($3), Aaron Hill ($5), BJ Upton ($9)..I could pretty much wrap up SB if I kept Gathright though assuming he doesn't get benched.
   12. Garth found his way to daylight Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:32 PM (#2232478)
Thanks for the work, Dan. That's good stuff.

The top nine hitters: Gordon, Shealy, Teahen, Sweeney, Butler, Brown, DeJesus, Huber, German. That's 3B, 1B, 3B (but really, CornerOF/DH), 1B/DH, CornerOF/DH, CornerOF/DH, CF, 1B/CornerOF/DH, 2B.

DeJesus and German aside, that's 2-3 third basemen, 2-3 first basemen, 3-4 corner outfielders, 4-5 designated hitters. Just awesome.

I'm woefully unread in ZiPS -- what work does it base Greinke's projection on? I ask because he's a sample size demon, but his latest work in the minors would indicate that he is probably back to 'normal', if not an itch better. But, of course, that involves very small sample sizes all the way up.

And finally, 32, 31, 30, 32, 30 -- the ages, respectively, of the top five projected pitchers. Hooray.
   13. Garth found his way to daylight Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:35 PM (#2232482)
Also, isn't the general consensus that Gordon will start next season at AAA?

Yeah, but Moore keeps talking about special players pushing teams' hands. So, he'll probably start at Triple-A, but sometime in 2007 he'll invariably be up.
   14. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:41 PM (#2232486)
Any chance the Royals grab #1 spots in these rankings?

Pretty good, especially with the pitchers.


Probably. This was a pretty bad team last year and these numbers are based on past performance, correct?
   15. AROM Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:43 PM (#2232489)
I'd be shocked if it wasn't! It was really funny doing the Angels right after the Royals. A 4.35 ERA ranks *12th* on the Angels

Makes perfect sense, given that #2 on the Royals wasn't considered good enough for the Angels to keep him.

Watching the Royals is sad. I remember the days when they, not Oakland, were our nemesis. But while I despise the A's, I always liked Brett, Saberhagen, White, and the Quis.
   16. Juan V Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:47 PM (#2232494)
The coolest thing to me is, a guy who has zero MLB plate appearances is projected to be their best hitters. Yeah, he is that good, and this team is that bad.
   17. AROM Posted: November 06, 2006 at 10:53 PM (#2232498)
The coolest thing to me is, a guy who has zero MLB plate appearances is projected to be their best hitters.

And its a result that you probably won't even find anyone arguing against.
   18. Azteca Posted: November 06, 2006 at 11:07 PM (#2232508)
given that #2 on the Royals wasn't considered good enough for the Angels to keep him


Not to beat a dead horse, but the Angels, recently, also didn't consider Jenks & Turnbow 'good enough to keep'. Peralta isn't a bad pitcher.
   19. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: November 06, 2006 at 11:28 PM (#2232517)
I wouldn't really recommend using Derrick Turnbow as a trump card right now. Or as a closer.
   20. karkface killah Posted: November 07, 2006 at 01:23 AM (#2232633)
Mike Coolbaugh 1b 35 .237 .305 .421 87 304 47 72 17 0 13 46 28 72 2 1

Ah hell. . . I thought we had a Scott Coolbaugh siting.
   21. karkface killah Posted: November 07, 2006 at 01:25 AM (#2232637)
Ed Yarnall! Brandon Duckworth! Scott Elarton!

Serious good times for Royals fans!
   22. DTS Posted: November 07, 2006 at 09:52 PM (#2233161)
Any chance the Royals grab #1 spots in these rankings?

I thought you were going to ask "Any chance the Royals grab the #1 spot in the '08 draft?" Answer: yes.
   23. DTS Posted: November 07, 2006 at 09:55 PM (#2233163)
Ed Yarnall! Brandon Duckworth! Scott Elarton!

In 1999 or so, this would have been an exciting trio.
   24. Astro-Bonilla Posted: November 08, 2006 at 12:43 AM (#2233252)
Are you sure these are accurate? The Royals...have a decent young line-up? They are making progress? I never thought I'd see the day.
   25. Astro-Bonilla Posted: November 08, 2006 at 12:45 AM (#2233253)
I think it is time to trade Krudz:

Jeff Keppinger 2b 27 .286 .338 .360 115 419 48 120 17 1 4 35 33 27 3 3
Mark Grudzielanek 2b 37 .288 .327 .382 117 458 64 132 27 2 4 42 25 62 2 2
   26. Astro-Bonilla Posted: November 08, 2006 at 12:48 AM (#2233255)
The top nine hitters: Gordon, Shealy, Teahen, Sweeney, Butler, Brown, DeJesus, Huber, German. That's 3B, 1B, 3B (but really, CornerOF/DH), 1B/DH, CornerOF/DH, CornerOF/DH, CF, 1B/CornerOF/DH, 2B.

DeJesus and German aside, that's 2-3 third basemen, 2-3 first basemen, 3-4 corner outfielders, 4-5 designated hitters. Just awesome.
Are the Royals smart enough to try to make some deals for what they need-know that they finally don't need everything? I would assume no, but I also didn't expect them to have so many league average hitters.
   27. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 08, 2006 at 07:27 AM (#2233343)
Did the Royals radically alter the dimensions of their park in 2006 to benefit hitters? If so their hitters really really suck.
   28. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 08, 2006 at 07:55 PM (#2233484)
I think it is time to trade Krudz


Not with these pitchers. You need all the gloves you can get.

-- MWE
   29. Spute Posted: November 08, 2006 at 09:06 PM (#2233536)
Did the Royals radically alter the dimensions of their park in 2006 to benefit hitters? If so their hitters really really suck.


No, they didn't. They were moved back a few seasons ago; They're at original dimensions right now.
   30. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 08, 2006 at 09:22 PM (#2233545)
Are the Royals smart enough to try to make some deals for what they need-know that they finally don't need everything? I would assume no, but I also didn't expect them to have so many league average hitters.

Remember, Allard Baird is gone. I expect Dayton Moore to be very active this off-season. I've been pleased with his moves thus far but this winter will be a test of his skills.
   31. Azteca Posted: November 09, 2006 at 09:18 PM (#2234102)
Why are the Rockies hoarding ex-Royal arms? Ascencio, Bautista, Affeldt, Cerda & Field all came out of KC's system, I believe. A few came via trade, but other's of these didn't.
   32. Spute Posted: November 11, 2006 at 12:20 AM (#2235001)
Why are the Rockies hoarding ex-Royal arms? Ascencio, Bautista, Affeldt, Cerda & Field all came out of KC's system, I believe. A few came via trade, but other's of these didn't.


That's a good question. It's probably... NOT a good idea. They've also been blowing money on Jose Mesa and Ray King, so who knows what the hell they're doing?

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