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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
J.D. Drew*          rf 31 .266 .385 .461 126 436 75 116 25 3 18 74 82 101 4 3
Andre Ethier*        lf 25 .296 .366 .463 155 520 82 154 27 6 16 72 54 103 5 6
Nomar Garciaparra     1b 33 .288 .354 .469 104 399 64 115 26 2 14 68 35 31 2 0
Jeff Kent           2b 39 .272 .352 .473 117 427 66 116 28 2 18 77 47 75 2 2
Matt Kemp           cf 22 .292 .342 .478 150 538 87 157 33 5 19 85 38 116 21 6
Olmedo Saenz         1b 36 .268 .339 .483 90 205 27 55 14 0 10 42 17 48 0 0
Rafael Furcal#        ss 29 .286 .358 .431 155 626 109 179 32 7 15 64 72 88 32 11
Andy LaRoche         3b 23 .274 .349 .443 133 467 63 128 26 1 17 68 52 80 6 4
Russell Martin       c   24 .279 .359 .432 153 495 80 138 30 2 14 73 60 72 11 7
James Loney*        1b 23 .297 .351 .434 161 512 68 152 35 4 9 58 42 65 5 5
Wilson Betemit#      3b 25 .262 .328 .451 136 359 49 94 21 1 15 51 35 101 2 2
Tydus Meadows         lf 29 .254 .339 .429 92 280 38 71 17 1 10 44 34 74 1 2
Bill Mueller#        3b 36 .264 .352 .390 93 326 46 86 18 1 7 38 41 49 0 1
Julio Lugo           ss 31 .283 .348 .393 146 545 82 154 30 3 8 54 51 118 26 8
Marlon Anderson*      2b 33 .273 .328 .441 120 245 34 67 12 1 9 29 20 44 4 3
Kenny Lofton*        cf 40 .286 .346 .358 94 332 73 95 11 5 1 38 31 32 17 3
Jayson Werth         rf 28 .236 .324 .405 110 343 50 81 18 2 12 49 41 112 9 3
Jason Repko         cf 26 .254 .305 .434 122 350 55 89 22 4 11 41 22 95 14 7
Craig Brazell*        1b 27 .251 .286 .439 117 403 43 101 23 1 17 68 18 84 1 0
A.J. Zapp*          1b 29 .234 .304 .380 111 355 36 83 19 0 11 45 33 123 0 0
Eric Riggs#          3b 30 .246 .319 .361 96 305 25 75 15 1 6 34 30 57 2 2
Tony Abreu           2b 22 .269 .312 .370 136 513 61 138 26 4 6 50 29 77 7 7
Delwyn Young#        rf 25 .243 .289 .403 147 531 56 129 32 1 17 68 33 114 2 3
Brad Cresse         c   28 .234 .290 .394 64 218 25 51 17 0 6 25 15 61 0 0
Toby Hall           c   31 .258 .302 .366 93 306 22 79 15 0 6 39 14 38 0 1
Ramon Martinez       2b 34 .259 .322 .331 71 166 16 43 6 0 2 19 15 22 0 0
Oscar Robles*        3b 31 .242 .313 .308 95 273 29 66 10 1 2 21 28 26 0 3
Chin-lung Hu         ss 23 .246 .299 .313 136 517 66 127 21 1 4 33 38 58 10 6
Adam Greenberg*      cf 26 .202 .316 .285 100 277 36 56 11 3 2 18 42 81 6 3
Wilson Valdez         ss 29 .252 .297 .318 136 481 59 121 19 2 3 33 30 61 19 12
Blake Dewitt*        3b 21 .224 .273 .330 146 540 47 121 25 1 10 50 35 98 4 5
Einar Diaz           c   34 .219 .267 .309 60 178 14 39 10 0 2 21 10 20 0 1
Edwin Bellorin       c   25 .222 .256 .306 104 333 27 74 14 1 4 33 14 61 1 1

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - James Loney
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .313 .376 .480 162 517 79 162 40 5 12 71 51 56 7 4
Mean         .297 .351 .434 161 512 68 152 35 4 9 58 42 65 5 5        
Pessimistic (15%) .278 .326 .387 121 385 44 107 23 2 5 34 27 55 2 5

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Eric Gagne           31   2.47   6   2 55   0   62.0   46   17   5   17   80
Takashi Saito         37   3.10   6   2 75   0   90.0   74   31   7   27   96
Jonathan Broxton       23   3.32   4   2 75   0   84.0   71   31   8   35   99
Kelly Wunsch*        34   3.68   1   1 31   0   22.0   19   9   2   12   21
Derek Lowe           34   3.83 15 10 34 34   214.0 221   91 21   56 123
Brad Penny           29   3.95 12   8 30 30   180.0 181   79 21   49 129
Hong-chih Kuo*        25   4.13   6   5 47 10   96.0   87   44   9   47   98
Greg Maddux           41   4.33 14 13 33 33   206.0 227   99 27   39 118
Chad Billingsley       22   4.38 10   9 29 28   150.0 146   73 19   75 130
Franquelis Osoria       25   4.44   6   5 58   0   81.0   86   40   8   28   49
Brett Tomko           34   4.47 10   9 36 26   165.0 173   82 19   56 105
Justin Orenduff       24   4.50   6   5 20 19   94.0   90   47 13   45   73
Eric Stults*          27   4.61 10 10 28 27   158.0 161   81 21   64 114
Yhency Brazoban       27   4.62   7   8 72   0   78.0   73   40 10   38   66
Mark Hendrickson*      33   4.79 10 11 30 28   173.0 191   92 20   55 100
Aaron Sele           37   4.84   8   9 28 22   132.0 150   71 16   42   66
Greg Miller*          22   4.85   1   2 39   1   52.0   46   28   3   45   43
Joe Beimel*          30   4.89   2   3 62   0   70.0   79   38 10   28   40
Elmer Dessens         36   4.93   4   5 51   6   84.0   94   46 11   27   54
D.J. Houlton         27   4.94   8 10 30 26   153.0 162   84 24   60 114
Spike Lundberg         30   5.12   6   9 30 16   116.0 130   66 14   46   65
Tim Hamulack*        30   5.34   3   4 56   0   64.0   64   38   9   37   55
Justin Reid           30   5.35   4   6 36 13   111.0 119   66 22   46   81
Jose Diaz           23   5.48   1   1 16   1   23.0   26   14   2   12   12
Scott Elbert*        21   5.59   7 11 27 25   132.0 127   82 20   98 115
William Juarez         26   5.71   4   6 26 13   82.0   88   52 14   48   56
Luis Gonzalez*        24   6.13   2   5 36   0   47.0   48   32   6   39   35

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) -  Brad Penny
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.33 15   7 33 33 203 190   75 21   49 156
Mean           3.95 12   8 30 30 180 181   79 21   49 129
Pessimistic (15%)  4.65   8   9 25 25 147 158   76 21   45 102

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 15, 2006 at 04:51 PM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. a wider scope of derision Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:21 PM (#2238568)
Loney, Kemp, LaRoche, Martin all 24 or younger and providing .350+ OBP? Logan White for President!

God, it looks like Lugo's going be ridiculously overpaid by some AL East squad. Let's hope it's the Matsuzaka-buying New York Yankees of Boston.
   2. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:26 PM (#2238576)
Namar's OPS leads Loney's by not much (038), but the difference in money will be enormous.
   3. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:29 PM (#2238580)
Kemp's projection looks far too high, considering his wicked collapse after the league got a good look at him.
   4. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:31 PM (#2238584)
Ugh. NOmar.
   5. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:31 PM (#2238585)
Why would the league ERAs be that low?
   6. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 15, 2006 at 05:33 PM (#2238588)
That Broxton-Saito-Gagné bullpen looks fun. Like it'll ever happen...
   7. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:00 PM (#2238627)
"Kemp's projection looks far too high, considering his wicked collapse after the league got a good look at him."

I think he'll make some adjustments and come back fairly strong. He's got too many tools/skills to stay down for long.
   8. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:06 PM (#2238638)
Derek Lowe is going to end up being a very astute signing.
   9. Kyle S Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:07 PM (#2238644)
i blame zips for the $11 i spent on gagne in my auction last year ;)
   10. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:19 PM (#2238660)
zips not a big fan of jd drew or something?
   11. AROM Posted: November 15, 2006 at 06:42 PM (#2238697)
I'm very underwhelmed by Drew's projection, though I'd still take him over Soriano any day of the week. For the Dodgers he won't be missed if ZIPS is right on Ethier and Kemp.

And Lowe is working out perfectly. I take back any bad things I said about his signing 2 years ago.
   12. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 15, 2006 at 09:37 PM (#2238872)
Nomah hitting .288? he hasn't hit that low in a full season, EVER.
   13. AROM Posted: November 15, 2006 at 09:47 PM (#2238879)
Seems low to me too. Must have something to do with his age.
   14. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 15, 2006 at 10:17 PM (#2238905)
Nomar hit .283 in 230AB in 2005.

And .303 last year. And is 33.
   15. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: November 15, 2006 at 10:48 PM (#2238934)
Nobody projected to hit 20 homers...
   16. RollingWave Posted: November 16, 2006 at 05:03 AM (#2239195)
Kuo is likely to do better than that if he stays healthy.
   17. RobertMachemer Posted: November 17, 2006 at 02:42 AM (#2239989)
These numbers are park-adjusted, right? Or are they park-neutral?
   18. 1k5v3L Posted: November 18, 2006 at 02:14 AM (#2240848)
rotoworld

Dodgers announced the retirement of third baseman Bill Mueller.

Mueller, forced to call it quits by a knee injury that wasn't going to get any better, will serve as a special assistant to Los Angeles GM Ned Colletti. This takes his $4.5 million salary off the Dodgers' books, but it seems likely that there's some sort of agreement entitling him to at least a significant portion of what he was due. The 35-year-old Mueller finishes his career with a .291/.373/.425 line, 85 homers and 493 RBI in 11 major league seasons. His best year was 2003, his first year with the Red Sox, when he won the AL batting title and established career highs with a .326 average, 19 homers and 85 RBI. In 2004, he came up with the big hit that drove in Dave Roberts in Game 4 of the ALCS and batted .429 in Boston's World Series victory. Nov. 17 - 8:11 pm et
   19. TOLAXOR Posted: November 19, 2006 at 10:18 PM (#2241670)
THIS IS ONLY A TEST!!!


<img src="http://pic.templetons.com/burnpic/burn2/monolith.jpg" alt="" border="0" /> 
   20. TOLAXOR Posted: November 19, 2006 at 10:20 PM (#2241672)
NUTS
   21. akrasian Posted: November 25, 2006 at 07:15 AM (#2245406)
This takes his $4.5 million salary off the Dodgers' books,

If only.

He gets every penny. No idea if he gets anything additional for his service as "special assistant" this season, though.

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