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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Prince Fielder*      1b 23 .280 .358 .513 159 542 83 152 34 1 30 87 58 113 5 3
Bill Hall           ss 27 .268 .334 .496 147 512 82 137 37 4 24 72 52 145 11 6
Kevin Mench         rf 29 .272 .330 .464 132 474 58 129 28 3 19 67 36 92 1 1
Rickie Weeks         2b 24 .262 .343 .433 131 485 90 127 23 6 16 59 48 120 20 4
Geoff Jenkins*        lf 32 .260 .338 .434 133 477 63 124 28 2 17 64 44 130 1 0
Corey Koskie*        3b 34 .246 .340 .431 84 297 39 73 19 0 12 36 37 69 2 1
Gabe Gross*          rf 27 .266 .348 .411 142 418 65 111 27 2 10 51 51 100 7 2
Corey Hart           rf 25 .263 .333 .462 132 463 76 122 29 6 17 62 46 99 19 11
Ryan Braun           3b 23 .262 .321 .440 117 427 45 112 27 2 15 57 33 101 16 5
Brady Clark         cf 34 .272 .364 .361 109 368 51 100 16 1 5 29 37 50 5 5
Johnny Estrada#      c   31 .277 .323 .404 116 401 40 111 27 0 8 49 22 49 0 0
David Bell           3b 34 .266 .336 .389 126 455 51 121 24 1 10 53 45 60 1 1
Tony Graffanino       2b 35 .256 .338 .372 96 347 50 89 21 2 5 35 36 97 4 2
J.J. Hardy           ss 24 .248 .326 .392 92 286 36 71 18 1 7 38 33 37 0 0
Jeff Cirillo         3b 37 .277 .338 .369 81 195 25 54 12 0 2 17 16 26 1 2
J.D. Closser#        c   27 .243 .321 .374 106 329 35 80 17 1 8 35 36 62 3 1
Laynce Nix*          cf 26 .249 .298 .411 116 370 40 92 17 2 13 54 21 121 2 1
Damian Miller         c   37 .247 .319 .369 87 295 31 73 21 0 5 32 28 74 0 1
Drew Anderson*        lf 26 .263 .314 .380 138 482 65 127 27 4 7 46 33 103 12 7
Vinny Rottino         3b 27 .265 .321 .363 127 427 48 113 20 2 6 35 33 79 4 4
Brad Nelson*        1b 24 .226 .317 .362 140 469 62 106 26 1 12 60 61 113 8 5
Michael Rivera       c   30 .243 .288 .408 78 255 25 62 12 0 10 38 15 49 2 1
Brent Abernathy       2b 29 .258 .313 .337 108 365 47 94 14 0 5 32 29 46 13 8
Mark L. Johnson*      c   31 .223 .306 .326 62 184 19 41 10 0 3 18 20 29 2 1
Chris Barnwell       ss 28 .244 .307 .325 121 385 37 94 17 1 4 30 30 63 11 4
Anthony Gwynn*        cf 24 .246 .310 .320 154 553 75 136 24 4 3 37 50 104 26 14
Callix Crabbe#        2b 24 .232 .320 .307 137 462 45 107 21 1 4 35 57 67 15 10
Hernan Iribarren*      2b 33 .253 .308 .321 132 455 53 115 13 3 4 38 36 75 18 14
Jermaine Clark*      2b 30 .215 .301 .295 97 298 40 64 10 1 4 25 35 55 12 6
Alcides Escobar       ss 20 .219 .249 .282 106 401 50 88 15 2 2 23 14 71 19 9

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Prince Fielder
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .303 .392 .575 162 551 96 167 40 1 36 109 69 103 7 2
Mean         .280 .358 .513 159 542 83 152 34 1 30 87 58 113 5 3
Pessimistic (15%) .262 .331 .456 132 450 60 118 24 0 21 59 41 103 3 4

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Ben Sheets           28   2.88 14   6 26 26   172.0 152   55 19   24 174
Francisco Cordero       32   3.33   7   3 72   0   73.0   61   27   5   31   77
Matt Wise           31   3.51   5   3 43   1   59.0   54   23   6   20   42
David Bush           27   3.79 13   9 33 32   202.0 198   85 23   43 146
Chris Capuano*        28   4.11 13 11 32 32   206.0 207   94 28   59 154
Jose Capellan         26   4.16   5   4 47   9   93.0   89   43   9   40   69
Rick Helling         36   4.26   6   6 30 20   133.0 130   63 16   49   86
Grant Balfour         29   4.34   1   2 25   0   29.0   25   14   3   16   32
Brian Shouse*        38   4.40   1   2 64   0   47.0   46   23   5   20   32
Chris Demaria         26   4.50   3   3 57   0   76.0   77   38 12   25   61
Tomo Ohka           31   4.53   6   8 25 23   137.0 145   69 19   43   74
Carlos Villanueva       23   4.59   8   9 29 24   157.0 159   80 25   54 115
Danny Kolb           32   4.67   3   3 60   0   54.0   58   28   5   23   30
Yovani Gallardo       21   4.80   7   8 26 24   148.0 150   79 19   66 111
Manny Parra*          24   4.82   4   5 19 18   97.0 101   52 11   42   65
Greg Aquino           29   4.98   2   2 49   0   56.0   52   31   7   28   53
Claudio Vargas         29   5.03   8 11 32 26   154.0 159   86 26   53 122
Chris Spurling         30   5.04   3   4 66   0   84.0   91   47 12   24   38
Chris Saenz           25   5.11   5   6 13 13   81.0   84   46 18   30   76
Derrick Turnbow       29   5.12   4   6 61   1   65.0   60   37   9   41   58
Ben Hendrickson       26   5.13   7 12 28 27   156.0 169   89 22   64   93
Zach Jackson*        24   5.15   8 11 27 26   159.0 177   91 21   62   86
Justin Lehr           29   5.16   5   9 44 13   122.0 134   70 19   46   79
Travis Phelps         29   5.23   5   7 36   8   93.0   96   54 15   43   68
Jared Fernandez       35   5.41   5   9 29 21   153.0 179   92 25   47   68
Alec Zumwalt         26   5.68   2   4 45   0   65.0   69   41 11   36   48
Vince Perkins         24   5.73   3   6 18 17   99.0 118   63 13   46   60
Joe Valentine         27   6.04   3   6 48   4   67.0   67   45 10   46   55
Jeff Housman*        25   6.35   4   9 24 20   112.0 124   79 24   57   80

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) -  Ben Sheets
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  2.28 19   4 28 28 193 156   49 17   24 208
Mean           2.88 14   6 26 26 172 152   55 19   24 174
Pessimistic (15%)  3.47 11   6 21 21 140 133   54 19   23 138

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 29, 2006 at 03:38 AM | 41 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Margo Adams FC Posted: November 29, 2006 at 03:56 AM (#2248093)
If someone offered to count the pessimistic 15% Ben Sheets projection right now toward the '07 stats on the fantasy teams in which I'm already committed to him, I'd be tempted to accept and not risk a midseason shutdown.
   2. Frisco Cali Posted: November 29, 2006 at 03:57 AM (#2248094)
Seems like a real lack of obp for the Brewer offense. The Cubs aren't the only team with this defect?
   3. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: November 29, 2006 at 04:36 AM (#2248118)
That's a pretty terrible offense, though they're obviously counting on more from Weeks and Hardy. It's worth noting that Bill Hall is projected to be worse than not just last year but 2005 as well. I'm optimistic about Hall for many reasons, one of which is that over the last two months of the year, he put up a .269/.383/.522 line--have to walk before you can crawl.

On the flip side, Sheets/Capuano/Bush looks to be a hell of a 1-3, especially if Capuano doesn't lose the ground on his BB rate that ZiPS projects him to (47 in 221.3 innings last year).
   4. Charles Saeger Posted: November 29, 2006 at 04:42 AM (#2248120)
Do ZiPS take quality of offense into account when projecting RBIs? I ask due to the low ratio of RBI/TB that Doughnut Jr. has.
   5. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: November 29, 2006 at 04:43 AM (#2248121)
I have a feeling that Mr. Wallbangers will have a thing or two to say about that Hall projection.
   6. Raskolnikov Posted: November 29, 2006 at 04:48 AM (#2248125)
Ben Sheets - best pitcher in baseball? Yes, I know he has to put up a healthy season first, but the potential. Wow.
   7. stealfirstbase Posted: November 29, 2006 at 07:39 AM (#2248239)
Bill Hall > J.J. Hardy

I was shocked this last year when Prince Fielder stole 7 bases. He must be some kind of athlete.
   8. Astro-Bonilla Posted: November 29, 2006 at 09:20 AM (#2248266)
Are they really going to move Hall to the outfield? That is an enormous waste of resources. Moving a league average (or slightly better) defensive shortsop to left field-assuming he is an avg. fielder in left-is a waste of over 20 runs.
   9. Astro-Bonilla Posted: November 29, 2006 at 09:22 AM (#2248267)
Seems like a real lack of obp for the Brewer offense. The Cubs aren't the only team with this defect?
The Brewers have an excuse: $. Most of the Brewers starters are near league avg. at the position, thou. Just no player with a really big #.
   10. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 29, 2006 at 02:00 PM (#2248293)
DC:

Bill Hall has been proving the "experts" wrong for several years now, particularly the mouthy, dismissive ones at that "other" baseball website.

I am confident that given good health Bill will easily exceed that projection.

Alas, I have grave doubts about the rest of the offense. I think Mr. Melvin has done a pretty bad job in the last six months of leveraging his available resources and Milwaukee's opportunity to be a "player" in the NL may already be lost.

Overly negative? No. Just a recognition that given the current climate an organization like Milwaukee is afforded few mistakes. And I think Doug has two serious gaffes with the Lee and Davis trade respectively. Not in trading THOSE guys. But in each case tossing in a talented younger player seemingly just the h*ll of it.

Trading Cruz for Mench was dumb.

Sending Arizona not one but TWO left-handed pitchers with ability was STUPID. Dana Eveland will pitch regularly in the big leagues. And all the Yovani Gallardos in the world won't change the fact that the team could have had BOTH guys in their rotation.

Sigh......
   11. bibigon Posted: November 29, 2006 at 04:48 PM (#2248414)
Ben Sheets - best pitcher in baseball? Yes, I know he has to put up a healthy season first, but the potential. Wow.


Ben Sheets' 2004 season was better than any season that Santana has had I'd guess. By a decent amount too. As good as Santana is, he just doesn't have Sheets' control.
   12. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 29, 2006 at 06:36 PM (#2248487)
Ben Sheets' 2004 season was better than any season that Santana has had I'd guess.

What?!? You're crazy.

Sheets pitched 237 IP with a 154 ERA+, 0.98 WHIP, and 25 HR, or 0.95 per 9.

Johan:

2004: 228 IP, 182 ERA+, 0.92 WHIP and 0.95 HR/9 in a DH league.
2005: 231.2 IP, 153 ERA+, 0.97 WHIP and 0.85 HR/9 in a DH league.
2006: 233.2 IP, 161 ERA+, 0.997 WHIP and 0.92 HR/9 in a DH league.
   13. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: November 30, 2006 at 02:45 AM (#2248543)
Think I'd take Johan or a healthy Halladay over a healthy Sheets.
   14. depletion Posted: November 30, 2006 at 06:38 PM (#2248561)
I agree with post 4 on Prince. 87 RBI seems paltry with 152 hits and 30 HR. Only 57 excess RBI on the 152 hits? They've taken all the baserunners!
   15. Toolsy McClutch Posted: November 30, 2006 at 08:07 PM (#2248563)
Wee Fielder is probably going to kill those BB numbers.

And as a Jay fan, I see that Bush line and swear. I never bought into him.
   16. CrosbyBird Posted: November 30, 2006 at 08:31 PM (#2248564)
Ben Sheets' 2004 season was better than any season that Santana has had I'd guess.

I wouldn't go that far, but I'd say Sheets at his best is a top 5 pitcher in baseball. The guy singlehandedly brought me to the final series of the fantasy playoffs in 2004, and I've always had a softspot for him.

He's an injury risk, but he finished 2006 pretty strongly. That optimistic projection above might be a little much, particularly the 2.28 ERA, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that mean performance or a tad better over 200+ innings in 2007.
   17. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: November 30, 2006 at 11:39 PM (#2248598)
Bush's peripherals were stunning last year: 7.4 k/game; 1.7 walks per game; 1.16 homers per game. If his LOB% goes from 67 percent (last year) up to 75 percent (he was at 71 percent the previous two years), with those other peripherals, I think he and Sheets could be the ideal 1 and 2 starters, counter-respectively.
   18. Raskolnikov Posted: November 30, 2006 at 11:43 PM (#2248601)
a healthy Halladay over a healthy Sheets.

A healthy Halladay over a healthy Sheets? I don't buy it. The only edge Halladay has over Sheets is his durability.
   19. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 01, 2006 at 04:42 AM (#2248804)
Wee Fielder is probably going to kill those BB numbers.

I've been beating that drum for awhile.

Where's the Oracle on the Counsell signing?
   20. 1k5v3L Posted: December 01, 2006 at 04:45 AM (#2248807)
   21. Jonny German Posted: December 01, 2006 at 04:52 AM (#2248813)
A healthy Halladay over a healthy Sheets? I don't buy it. The only edge Halladay has over Sheets is his durability.

It's a huge edge at this point. 2004 is the only full season Sheets has had as a standout performer. Halladay's 2002, 2003, and 2006 all compare favourably to that season. Halladay's 2005 was clearly a notch better in terms of rates, and was shortened by a fluke injury rather than something that would make you doubt his durability.
   22. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 01, 2006 at 04:57 AM (#2248817)
Bush's projection surprises me positively. And I think Ben Sheets is a phenomenal pitcher when healthy, but is ZIPs seriously saying that he has a 15% chance to go 19-4 with a 2.28 ERA? Wow!!
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 01, 2006 at 06:03 AM (#2248861)
Here's a fun list. Every pitcher in major league history, minimum 50 innings, that had a K rate of more than 1 per inning and a BB rate of less than 1 per game.

Ben Sheets, 2006.
   24. Raskolnikov Posted: December 01, 2006 at 06:06 AM (#2248863)
K rate of more than 1 per inning and a BB rate of less than 1 per game.


Pitcher Year
Ben Sheets 2006


[whistles...]

He becomes free after 2008 right?
   25. Danny Posted: December 01, 2006 at 06:11 AM (#2248865)
Here's a fun list. Every pitcher in major league history, minimum 50 innings, that had a K rate of more than 1 per inning and a BB rate of less than 1 per game.

Man, Eckersley came damn close every year from 87 through 92...especially 1990.
   26. 1k5v3L Posted: December 01, 2006 at 06:40 AM (#2248875)
Every pitcher in major league history, minimum 50 innings, that had a K rate of more than 1 per inning and a BB rate of less than 1 per game.


Curt Schilling 2002

He also came really close in 2001 (needed 5 fewer walks)
   27. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 01, 2006 at 06:44 AM (#2248876)
33 walks in 259.1 IP is more than 1 BB/9 IP.
   28. 1k5v3L Posted: December 01, 2006 at 06:46 AM (#2248877)
I assumed Dan meant BB rate of less than 1 per start. Didn't realize he meant 1 per 9 IP.
   29. Raskolnikov Posted: December 01, 2006 at 06:51 AM (#2248881)
When I first saw Sheets' 11 walks, I thought that there was an error somewhere.

He didn't strike out enough, but I always enjoy looking up Maddux's stats.

'95 - 210 IP, 23BB
'97 - 233 IP, 20 BB (!)
'01 - 233, 27 BB
   30. rluzinski Posted: December 01, 2006 at 02:32 PM (#2248964)
Ben Sheets is a special pitcher. Too bad many can't look past his mediocre career win/loss record and recent injury troubles to recognize that.
   31. WeGotWood98 Posted: December 01, 2006 at 05:18 PM (#2249076)
God bless Ben Sheets.

He's one of those guys out there with a fastball that can get you out, there are too few of those nowadays, and then when he drops that curve on you you can't do #### aobut it.

Last years numbers were SICK too. If he pitched 200 innings with those kind of numbers, he'd have been better than Santana.

Too bad he didn't. Stay healthy Ben, do what everyone here knows you can do.

BTW - Doug Melvin right now, besides for the Estrade trade, is one of the most underrated GMs in baseball.
   32. RobertMachemer Posted: December 01, 2006 at 08:38 PM (#2249244)
Pedro Martinez's 1993: 65 games and only 57 walks, 119 strikeouts in only 109 innings.

But (as I see elsewhere in the thread) if you meant less than a walk per nine innings, well, you're almost certainly right. Less than a walk per nine innings is rare for a strikeout pitcher (to say the least).
   33. RobertMachemer Posted: December 01, 2006 at 08:44 PM (#2249255)
John Smoltz came close in 2003 -- he walked one batter too many (and, as it happens, he had exactly one intentional walk that year...)
   34. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 01, 2006 at 09:33 PM (#2249322)
HW:

Just thought I'd give you a heads up that your favorite minor leaguer, Charlie Fermaint, may be defensively challenged.
   35. Daunte Vicknabbit! Posted: December 04, 2006 at 04:51 AM (#2251056)
And as a Jay fan, I see that Bush line and swear. I never bought into him.


You know, it's funny you say that. I have a good story about the David Bush trade.

Last year, I was at a University of Florida baseball game (the game against Missouri, where we got dominated by Max Scherzer and the season went drastically downhill) and I met some MLB scouts, one from Pittsburgh, another from Toronto, the last was from somewhere I don't remember (wanna say LA) along with an apparently really high ranking Red Sox official that I didn't recognize (Jed something?). Anyways, I started talking to the Jays scout about their organization, and I mentioned that I really didn't like the trade, that I thought Gabe Gross was a solid 4th outfielder but more importantly that I thought giving up David Bush was silly considering he was a cheap, young fourth starter with the potential to be a solid number two guy, and that I really thought giving up Zach Jackson was a bad idea. The Pirates scout turned to me and said, "You think so? This guy was bragging to us for the past two or three years about how much he liked Jackson and how good he was going to be." Then the Jays scout tells me, "Yeah, I hate to give up Jackson, but I'm not that mad about Bush. He's ok, but we needed Overbay." I told him that I really felt that Bush alone would make the trade come back to haunt them, and that if Jackson ever became anything it would look that much worse. So the moral of the story is that I should be a major league scout.

The best part of this conversation was when me and the Pirates scout made fun of the Jays farm system together. He looked kinda steamed.
   36. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 04, 2006 at 04:58 AM (#2251059)
Jed Hoyer is in the Sox FO.

Agreeing with a Pirate scout about something would make me a little queasy, though :)

And that was a baaad trade. Trading the scarcest commodity in baseball--average or better starting pitching--for the least scarce--a first baseman with on-base skills but mediocre power--can't be good.
   37. MSI Posted: December 04, 2006 at 05:50 AM (#2251082)
I'm a Jays fan, and I'm gonna stay pissed at Milwuakee because they absolutely fleeced us on a few trades. The Overbay trade and Koskie trade both really ticked me off, and then the TJ Ford for Charlie Villenuava for TJ Ford trade, I mean c'mon, what's going on here? It's ironic that all the major holes we had (2b, SP, 4th OF), are the ones that left in the Overbay trade, and all that came in was one of another 4 corner infielders. THe Brewers seem like a young, cheap team that seems pretty solid to me.
   38. MSI Posted: December 04, 2006 at 05:51 AM (#2251084)
oops, make that one TJ Ford.
   39. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: December 08, 2006 at 07:29 AM (#2255287)
Just adding to the Ben Sheets gushing. His 2004 was so sick. 10.03 K/9 and 1.22 BB/9 (8.25 K/BB), wow.
   40. Xander Posted: December 08, 2006 at 07:43 AM (#2255294)
I'll never forget when Johnny Estrada, who was the last batter Sheets faced in the 18 K game, was doing anything he could to get thrown out, in lieu of being the last batter to strike out. Doug Eddings was behind the plate and he was just looking straight ahead, turning a deaf ear to Estrada. And like it was pre-determined, Sheets made him look foolish on the last pitch of the game for strikeout 18.

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