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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Joe Mauer*          c   24 .313 .398 .465 145 540 80 169 31 3 15 81 79 57 10 2
Justin Morneau*      1b 26 .287 .355 .538 154 571 91 164 33 1 36 123 58 99 2 2
Michael Cuddyer       rf 28 .265 .348 .463 138 486 82 129 33 3 19 80 57 113 4 2
Jason Kubel*        lf 24 .284 .342 .477 133 457 72 130 30 2 18 75 39 77 7 5
Kevin West           lf 27 .248 .311 .426 98 331 40 82 20 0 13 50 26 80 2 1
Torii Hunter         cf 31 .270 .329 .445 123 467 69 126 23 1 19 71 37 89 15 6
Lew Ford           lf 30 .267 .349 .395 115 382 57 102 22 3 7 43 36 54 10 2
Jason Bartlett       ss 27 .290 .346 .391 139 486 74 141 31 3 4 45 35 70 11 5
Shannon Stewart       lf 33 .275 .341 .392 83 342 44 94 17 1 7 38 31 49 4 2
Luis Castillo#        2b 31 .294 .361 .359 137 537 82 158 18 4 3 44 57 55 18 7
Phil Nevin           1b 36 .249 .325 .414 98 338 46 84 14 0 14 56 35 125 1 0
Garrett Jones*        1b 26 .248 .301 .454 140 504 60 125 31 2 23 81 36 111 3 3
Mike Redmond         c   36 .287 .335 .374 51 174 17 50 12 0 1 22   7 18 0 0
Luis Rodriguez#      3b 27 .264 .330 .370 113 349 47 92 23 1 4 36 33 40 2 2
Rondell White         dh 35 .262 .306 .397 89 325 42 85 18 1 8 41 16 53 0 0
Alex Romero#        lf 23 .256 .316 .372 135 457 52 117 23 3 8 53 37 56 9 7
Nick Punto#          3b 29 .265 .330 .345 122 415 57 110 19 4 2 38 40 67 11 6
Glenn Williams#      3b 29 .247 .298 .386 105 352 36 87 18 2 9 40 24 81 2 1
Josh Rabe           lf 28 .250 .311 .358 108 360 45 90 19 1 6 40 30 56 8 6
Alexi Casilla#        ss 22 .269 .321 .334 137 491 71 132 20 3 2 33 36 56 31 12
Jason Tyner*        lf 30 .269 .317 .321 135 501 69 135 18 4 0 34 33 60 8 5
Andres Torres#        cf 29 .240 .321 .345 93 287 35 69 13 4 3 21 32 75 11 8
Shawn Wooten         c   34 .242 .290 .346 100 335 25 81 17 0 6 35 21 74 1 0
Quinton McCracken#    rf 36 .248 .306 .327 80 165 16 41 6 2 1 11 13 27 3 1
Denard Span*        cf 23 .263 .314 .312 144 548 79 144 14 5 1 42 39 88 15 11
Alejandro Machado     2b 25 .240 .310 .306 114 359 48 86 11 2 3 30 34 45 14 6
Chris Heintz         c   32 .251 .291 .338 82 287 29 72 13 0 4 31 15 56 0 2
Matt Moses*          3b 22 .233 .283 .345 148 537 46 125 22 1 12 71 36 134 5 3
Luis Maza           2b 27 .239 .276 .354 103 364 47 87 17 2 7 38 15 61 2 2
Trevor Plouffe       ss 21 .200 .265 .293 146 505 53 101 24 1 7 43 43 96 5 4
Steve Lomasney       c   29 .172 .214 .241 52 145   8 25 4 0 2 13   7 61 0 1

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Justin Morneau
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .307 .378 .602 161 596 108 183 40 2 44 157 65 93 3 1  
Mean         .287 .355 .538 154 571 91 164 33 1 36 123 58 99 2 2
Pessimistic (15%) .267 .323 .483 129 476 65 127 25 0 26 84 40 94 1 2  

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Joe Nathan           32   2.12   6   1 67   0   68.0   47   16   4   18   87
Juan Rincon           28   2.92   7   3 75   0   77.0   66   25   4   27   77
Johan Santana*        28   2.95 18   6 34 34   226.0 189   74 26   50 234
Francisco Liriano*      23   3.26 13   6 31 24   160.0 134   58 17   47 175
Jesse Crain           25   3.43   7   4 68   0   76.0   72   29   8   25   55
Matt Guerrier         28   3.55   2   1 42   1   71.0   77   28   8   25   41
Dennys Reyes*        30   3.71   5   3 52   6   80.0   75   33   8   30   69
Pat Neshek           26   3.86   7   4 58   0   84.0   76   36 15   24   92
Matt Garza           23   3.88 13 10 28 28   160.0 158   69 17   51 124
Brad Radke           34   4.10 12   9 31 31   191.0 211   87 27   28 112
Kevin Slowey         23   4.31   6   5 20 19   119.0 129   57 18   21   80
Scott Baker           25   4.45 10 10 28 28   170.0 183   84 23   43 113
Julio DePaula         24   4.68   3   3 46   0   77.0   83   40   5   36   37
Carlos Silva         28   4.85 10 11 31 29   182.0 223   98 29   27   71
J.D. Durbin           25   4.86   4   5 20 18   100.0 101   54 12   55   73
Willie Eyre           28   4.93   4   5 44   8   95.0 104   52 12   38   60
Boof Bonser           25   4.94 10 12 30 30   173.0 183   95 32   65 133
Glen Perkins*        24   5.13   6   9 26 24   135.0 143   77 18   59   97
Bobby Korecky         27   5.16   4   6 52   0   75.0   86   43   9   28   34
Dave Gassner*        28   5.19   7 10 23 22   130.0 154   75 22   31   64
Anthony Swarzak       21   5.32   8 12 28 28   159.0 177   94 23   63   95
Jason Miller*        24   5.42   3   5 35   9   88.0   95   53 14   39   62
Oswaldo Sosa         21   5.54   8 12 24 24   138.0 160   85 13   69   62
Adam Harben           23   5.75   5   9 28 24   133.0 149   85 16   75   65
Mike Smith           28   5.77   6 10 30 25   159.0 182 102 25   73   83
Peter Munro           32   5.79   6 12 32 23   146.0 176   94 23   47   67
Ricky Barrett*        26   5.84   3   6 46   3   77.0   78   50 12   54   66
Alexander Smit*        21   5.87   4   7 35 15   115.0 120   75 20   69   88
Errol Simonitsch*      24   6.05   7 15 28 27   165.0 203 111 31   49   78
Justin Olson         27   6.26   5 10 32 12   102.0 114   71 22   51   76
Colby Miller         25   6.38   3   6 18 10   72.0   86   51 13   36   32
Jose Mijares*        22   7.59   2   7 27   6   64.0   74   54 19   44   50
* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) -  Carlos Silva
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  4.08 13 10 34 32 205 235   93 27   25   83
Mean           4.85 10 11 31 29 182 223   98 29   27   71
Pessimistic (15%)  5.59   6 11 26 24 148 193   92 29   24   57

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
And yes, I know that Brad Radke’s retiring.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 13, 2006 at 08:46 PM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: December 13, 2006 at 09:11 PM (#2260496)
Nothing new here to see. Offense is pretty ugly after Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer. Johan plus 4 average starters and a killer bullpen. I'm surprised to see ZiPS like Baker still after his poor season in the majors last year, although good AAA season.

How about adding Jeff Cirillo,Ken Harvey, Carmen Cali and Mike Venafro or just do a Transaction Oracle projection for them?
   2. bibigon Posted: December 13, 2006 at 09:14 PM (#2260500)
I'll take the over on Garza, and the under on Bonser.
   3. The Artist Posted: December 13, 2006 at 09:19 PM (#2260513)
Kubel's projection is pretty interesting, IMO, especially since he missed a year. Dan, How did you account for that in ZIPS?
   4. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: December 13, 2006 at 10:26 PM (#2260554)
I'll take the over on Garza, and the under on Bonser.


Under on Liriano games started. Oh, I'm going to hell.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 13, 2006 at 11:11 PM (#2260621)
How about adding Jeff Cirillo,Ken Harvey, Carmen Cali and Mike Venafro or just do a Transaction Oracle projection for them?

Got it.
   6. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: December 13, 2006 at 11:13 PM (#2260625)
So far, Dan has posted projections for 17 teams. Only 3 players are projected to hit no home runs. 2 of the are catchers projected to less than 200 ABs. The other is Jason Tyner, projected to 500 ABs. I still don't understand why the Mets decided he was worth a first round pick.
   7. JPWF13 Posted: December 13, 2006 at 11:22 PM (#2260634)
I still don't understand why the Mets decided he was worth a first round pick.


An eternal fascination with HS CFs who could run fast
   8. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: December 13, 2006 at 11:51 PM (#2260665)
In what order are the team ZiPS projections done, out of curiosity? Alphabetical? I haven't really paid attention.
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2006 at 12:25 AM (#2260697)
The other is Jason Tyner, projected to 500 ABs.

Tyner totally blew the streak he had working in 2006. If he just hit 1 home run, he would have hit more than 0 home runs for 3 consecutive professional seasons. When Tyner hit his home run for the Richmond Braves in 2004, it was his first since his senior year of high school (1994).
   10. Darren Posted: December 14, 2006 at 12:30 AM (#2260703)
Dan,

If there was ever a time to do a premature TO, Matsuzaka is it! Yeah, baby. You might as well throw in Clemens, since he's next. Right? Right? Please?
   11. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: December 14, 2006 at 12:37 AM (#2260712)
I don't get how Kevin West projects to hit better in the majors next year than he did in the minors this year. Any theories?
   12. Craig in MN Posted: December 14, 2006 at 01:01 AM (#2260738)
I thought the Kubel and West projections were both really strange too. Not only do their projections seem high based on what they did last year, but the projections for both are both higher now than their ZIPS projections last offseason, despite having disappointing years in between. I guess managing to age a year in 365 days is a better indicator of success than actual success is. :)

Actually with West, perhaps ZIPs is projecting him to be used more in a platoon role this year, which would accentuate his positives. Kubel might just be just young enough that he projects as being talented and his relatively few ABs in the past 2 years haven't overwhelmed his success from before.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2006 at 01:12 AM (#2260749)
I'll double-check West and Kubel.
   14. MM1f Posted: December 14, 2006 at 01:14 AM (#2260751)
"An eternal fascination with HS CFs who could run fast"

Sigh, If youre going to rail against some perceived wrong (like toolsy HSers and the teams who love em) for no good reason (that is railing against drafting toolsy HSers, railing against drafting Tyner is ok i guess) at least get the facts right. Tyner was a college guy from Texas A&M]

Harben, FYI, hasnt been a Twin since August or so. He went to the Cubs for Nevin and now hes not even a Cub after the Cubs nontendered him to free up a 40man spot

And yeah I dont get the West thing either except that Zips always seems to have a couple random minor leaguers projected to do a little (or a lot) too well as rookies
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2006 at 01:42 AM (#2260768)
OK, tracked down the problems. The Kevin West projection was actually his optimistic projection.

The Kubel one was more of a puzzler - the projection for 2007 was right. So I checked the projection for 2006 and it was last year's projection that was wrong. I couldn't figure out how it was oddly wrong until it dawned on me - his missing season had messed me up when I cut and pasted and his 2006 projection included a Dave Krynzel line. All-in-all, ZiPS has loved Kubel for awhile based on his pre-2005 years.


And yeah I dont get the West thing either except that Zips always seems to have a couple random minor leaguers projected to do a little (or a lot) too well as rookies


Some seem to think so, but I also check error bars by age group and I'm not missing on rookies any more than players in their prime or older players.

While there are very few league-average players kicking around in the minors, there still are a lot of replacement-level ones. Professional baseball players are the far right of the baseball talent curve and every step down increases by scads the amount of players that have that much ability. 315/465 leftfielders that aren't very good defensively are a dime a dozen - if you're not getting a lot of people of that ability level, you're probably doing something wrong.
   16. Craig in MN Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:16 AM (#2260959)
315/465 leftfielders that aren't very good defensively are a dime a dozen - if you're not getting a lot of people of that ability level, you're probably doing something wrong.

What about third basemen? The Twins sure have some doozies. Cirillo seemed like a pretty big upgrade, but based on his Milwaukee projection, he might not be much better than what they've got otherwise.

Jeff Cirillo             3b  37  .277  .338  .369  81 195  25  54 12  0  2  17  16  26  1  2 
Luis Rodriguez
#          3b  27  .264  .330  .370 113 349  47  92 23  1  4  36  33  40  2  2 
Nick Punto#              3b  29  .265  .330  .345 122 415  57 110 19  4  2  38  40  67 11  6 
Glenn Williams#          3b  29  .247  .298  .386 105 352  36  87 18  2  9  40  24  81  2  1
Alexi Casilla#           ss  22  .269  .321  .334 137 491  71 132 20  3  2  33  36  56 31 12
Alejandro Machado        2b  25  .240  .310  .306 114 359  48  86 11  2  3  30  34  45 14  6 
Matt Moses
*              3b  22  .233  .283  .345 148 537  46 125 22  1 12  71  36 134  5  3 
   17. a wider scope of derision Posted: December 14, 2006 at 04:24 PM (#2261177)
Looks like another MVP for Morneau!
   18. spycake Posted: December 14, 2006 at 05:13 PM (#2261254)
Craig,

Cirillo's no world-beater, but I think he stands the best chance of that group to actually meet or exceed his projection. Glenn Williams barely hit that projection in AAA last year. Furthermore, Casilla and Machado aren't 3B and have never even played the position in the minor leagues, and Moses is hardly an option entering 2007 after hitting .249/.303/.386 with poor defense at AA.

Hopefully Punto can carry over some of his 2006 success, but in any case, the Twins needed a reliable backup plan, as well as a backup 1B (preferably RH) and a veteran bat off the bench. Cirillo's fine for that role, and his salary is a drop in the bucket, even for the Twins.
   19. Craig in MN Posted: December 14, 2006 at 07:50 PM (#2261461)
I agree with all of that. It's just that I expected a little rosier projection for Cirillo. As for the other guys, I was casting a wide net, as it seems like mostly a matter of desperation. There doesn't seem to be much difference between the best and worst of them, and they seem to be testing the concept of replacement-level. Is there any team with a worse 3b situation? One cheap vet who projects to fall off a cliff, 5 middle infielders/utility guys who could player there and hit terribly, and a touted prospect who's terrible at AA?
   20. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 14, 2006 at 08:01 PM (#2261474)
I couldn't figure out how it was oddly wrong until it dawned on me - his missing season had messed me up when I cut and pasted and his 2006 projection included a Dave Krynzel line.

And people say that Krynzel will never contribute!
   21. alskntwnsfn Posted: December 14, 2006 at 08:58 PM (#2261534)
I'll take the over on:

Mauer's OBP
Cuddyer's HR
Hunter's HR
Punto's OBP
Casilla's AVG
Neshek's ERA
Perkins
Barrett

I'll take the under on:

Ford
West
Stewart
Span
G. Jones's HR

And, Boof Bonser WILL be better in 2007 than his ZIPS show. He's added a spike curve that is really going to be a difference maker for him, just like it was in the final 2 months.

Bonser

Pre-Break (pre-spike curve) 6.8 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9
Post-Break (post-spike curve) 7.9 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9

Thanks again, Brian Sabean!
   22. alskntwnsfn Posted: December 14, 2006 at 09:00 PM (#2261536)
I mean to say that I think Perkins, Neshek, and Barrett will be better than you give them credit for... sorry for any confusion.
   23. sunnyday2 Posted: December 15, 2006 at 02:18 PM (#2262176)
Bartlett?
   24. a wider scope of derision Posted: December 16, 2006 at 08:51 PM (#2263286)
Dan, do you have spotlights for the Twins' real MVPs, Mauer and Santana? I'd love to see what ZiPS sees as their upsides and downsides.
   25. A triple short of the cycle Posted: December 20, 2006 at 03:42 AM (#2265457)
Didn't some of these guys use to pitch for the Giants? Ahhhh remind me who the Giant's traded for Pierzynski? Heh heh.


Nice table formatting Craig in MN! Everyone please take notes.
   26. Craig in MN Posted: December 20, 2006 at 05:32 AM (#2265522)
It took an incredible effort, in that I had to actually move my mouse and press the "code" button. But considering all the typos I normally make, I'll gladly take credit for doing something right in a post.


In other Twins moves, ESPN is reporting that the Twins resigned Rondell White for $2.75 million. I suspect he'll be healthier and provide decent results, but coming off a terrible year overall, and with no real competition for his services, that seems a bit high.
   27. Craig in MN Posted: December 20, 2006 at 03:03 PM (#2265629)
Upon further review, this seems really strange. From Cot's Contracts, about White's contract last year:
# 06:$2.5M, 07: vesting option ($0.75M buyout)
# 2007 option increases based on Plate Appearances:
* vests at $3M with 400 PAs in 2006


It looks to me that the Twins bought out his $3 million option for $.75 million and then negotiated to pay him $2.75 million instead, with performance clauses that could add a few hundred thousand more. Math might not be my strong suit, but it seems to me that adds up to more than $3 million. Even if I am wrong about them having to buy him out after last season, he'd only have to get 450 PAs in 2007 to earn enough incentives make that $3 million. Sure, the Twins also got a $3.5 million option for the following year out of the deal, but paying him more this year for a chance to pay him less next year doesn't seem like necessarily smart negotiating.

And again, who else was competing for his services?

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