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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections - New York Mets


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
David Wright         3b 24 .298 .379 .523 156 581 99 173 41 3 28 120 73 115 17 6
Carlos Beltran#      cf 30 .258 .359 .502 145 546 108 141 34 3 31 101 85 96 17 3
Moises Alou         lf 40 .285 .358 .498 109 400 60 114 23 1 20 66 43 48 2 1
Carlos Delgado*      1b 35 .256 .360 .495 134 485 73 124 27 1 29 98 67 114 0 0
Cliff Floyd*        lf 34 .261 .350 .469 102 360 52 94 19 1 18 61 38 73 6 1
Jose Reyes#          ss 24 .296 .340 .462 157 676 119 200 32 16 16 82 47 75 58 17
Lastings Milledge     cf 22 .277 .356 .436 143 498 71 138 32 4 13 64 52 107 12 11
Brett Harper*        1b 25 .257 .312 .486 100 346 51 89 16 0 21 63 26 116 0 1
Shawn Green*        rf 34 .263 .337 .414 145 529 71 139 29 3 15 65 52 99 3 2
Michael Tucker*      rf 36 .248 .354 .378 100 294 40 73 16 2 6 37 46 59 4 1
Jacob Cruz*          lf 34 .254 .338 .399 74 138 17 35 11 0 3 21 16 36 0 0
Ben Johnson         rf 26 .249 .323 .425 131 421 65 105 25 2 15 60 44 107 6 2
Julio Franco         1b 48 .270 .340 .381 87 189 19 51 10 1 3 30 20 48 2 1
Kelly Stinnett       c   37 .264 .331 .387 60 106 11 28 4 0 3 10   9 45 0 0
Damion Easley         2b 37 .235 .321 .416 95 221 26 52 14 1 8 31 24 40 2 1
Paul Lo Duca         c   35 .283 .326 .381 117 449 57 127 27 1 5 52 25 37 3 1
Endy Chavez*        cf 29 .280 .320 .377 138 411 52 115 21 5 3 39 25 43 18 5
Chris Basak         ss 28 .242 .317 .393 105 326 43 79 19 3 8 36 32 77 10 4
Ricky Ledee*        lf 33 .241 .311 .377 85 162 18 39 10 0 4 24 15 37 1 0
Ramon Castro         c   31 .232 .313 .373 61 142 16 33 8 0 4 22 16 41 0 0
Jose Valentin#        2b 37 .224 .295 .401 113 344 47 77 18 2 13 47 34 86 4 2
Jose Offerman#        1b 38 .231 .326 .336 92 277 26 64 9 1 6 33 39 52 3 1
Rashad Eldridge#      lf 25 .244 .313 .349 107 344 44 84 20 2 4 34 34 93 4 4
Edgardo Alfonzo       3b 33 .248 .315 .344 93 323 32 80 17 1 4 41 29 28 0 1
Chase Lambin#        3b 27 .228 .304 .364 120 390 46 89 22 2 9 48 39 90 2 1
Jorge Padilla         rf 27 .247 .308 .344 109 372 40 92 16 1 6 36 29 70 5 4
Ruben Gotay#        2b 24 .239 .299 .361 141 510 57 122 29 3 9 59 40 98 8 5
Fernando Martinez     cf 18 .242 .284 .373 100 389 35 94 20 2 9 38 20 82 6 5
Sandy Martinez*      c   36 .222 .280 .367 78 248 21 55 9 0 9 34 19 61 1 1
Carlos Gomez         cf 21 .250 .292 .352 139 492 56 123 21 4 7 44 22 95 36 16
Mike DiFelice         c   38 .215 .293 .330 61 191 16 41 10 0 4 24 19 44 1 1
Chris Woodward       2b 31 .228 .293 .327 65 171 18 39 9 1 2 20 14 42 0 1
Anderson Hernandez#    ss 24 .248 .289 .305 137 525 60 130 15 3 3 36 30 95 15 9
Julio Ramirez         cf 29 .211 .254 .347 109 346 45 73 16 2 9 42 17 110 13 8
Joe Hietpas         c   28 .184 .240 .265 81 234 16 43 10 0 3 20 15 60 0 1

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Jose Reyes
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .314 .365 .517 162 695 140 218 37 19 22 104 54 64 72 15  
Mean         .296 .340 .462 157 676 119 200 32 16 16 82 47 75 58 17
Pessimistic (15%) .280 .321 .403 136 583 90 163 23 11 9 56 35 75 43 17  

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Billy Wagner*        35   2.06   5   1 67   0   70.0   50   16   6   18   81
Pedro Martinez         35   3.16 15   6 29 29   188.0 155   66 19   48 177
Duaner Sanchez         27   3.33   5   2 65   0   73.0   66   27   6   28   49
Pedro Feliciano*      30   3.90   5   3 62   0   60.0   56   26   7   23   50
Tom Glavine*          41   3.92 14   9 31 31   195.0 198   85 19   64 107
Juan Padilla         30   4.03   5   3 56   1   87.0   92   39   9   28   57
Aaron Heilman         28   4.29   7   6 52 13   126.0 120   60 15   53   93
Mike Pelfrey         23   4.30   5   4 16 16   90.0   85   43   8   35   71
John Maine           26   4.30 11   9 29 28   159.0 150   76 20   69 117
Jason Standridge       28   4.33   5   4 45 10   108.0 107   52   9   47   66
Oliver Perez*        25   4.50 11 10 29 29   164.0 149   82 27   72 165
Jon Adkins           29   4.57   2   2 61   0   65.0   72   33   7   22   39
Ambiorix Burgos       23   4.62   4   5 69   0   74.0   67   38 13   38   81
Guillermo Mota         33   4.65   4   4 52   1   60.0   58   31   8   27   49
Orlando Hernandez       41   4.65   8   8 22 22   118.0 117   61 18   48 101
Phil Humber           25   4.74   4   5 15 14   76.0   80   40 13   26   52
Steve Trachsel         36   4.77 10 12 29 29   166.0 176   88 21   74   80
Bartolome Fortunato     32   4.79   2   3 37   0   47.0   45   25   7   22   47
Steve Schmoll         27   4.79   4   4 52   0   62.0   63   33   6   28   39
Victor Zambrano       31   4.85   6   8 22 20   117.0 115   63 12   74   92
Alay Soler           26   4.87   5   6 20 20   109.0 109   59 13   50   66
Mitch Wylie           30   4.88   2   3 22   4   48.0   52   26   7   17   33
Dave Williams*        28   4.88   7   9 25 23   131.0 136   71 19   51   75
Jason Vargas*        24   5.01   7   9 29 24   149.0 147   83 21   64 109
Blake McGinley         28   5.22   4   6 38   5   81.0   88   47 17   25   55
Jose Lima           34   5.36   8 12 32 28   168.0 192 100 30   50   79
Adam Bostick*        24   5.66   6 11 27 27   151.0 154   95 21   85 101
Jeriome Robertson*      30   6.49   4 10 24 16   104.0 127   75 25   39   55

Player Spotlight (Beta) -  Oliver Perez
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.60 15   8 32 32 185 154   74 24   73 195
Mean           4.50 11 10 29 29 164 149   82 27   72 165
Pessimistic (15%)  5.84   6 11 24 24 131 132   85 29   68 132


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2006 at 05:19 PM | 292 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Page 1 of 3 pages  1 2 3 > 
   1. StatFreak101 Posted: December 19, 2006 at 05:30 PM (#2265014)
What is the reasoning behind Oliver Perez's solid projection? Just another pitcher that ZiPS likes a lot, or what?
   2. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 05:40 PM (#2265030)
ZIPS really likes Floyd and Tucker, huh? That Green acquisition is looking more and more like such an unnecessary move.

I really hope Brett Harper can stay healthy this year. I want to see what his power potential could be.

I'd take that Milledge Projection right now and run to the vault. If he can put up a .350+ OBP in his age 22 year, that fixes our #2 hole.
   3. a wider scope of derision Posted: December 19, 2006 at 05:44 PM (#2265034)
What's with Beltran's batting average?
   4. Kyle S Posted: December 19, 2006 at 05:47 PM (#2265041)
i'm gonna go ahead and take the under on pedro.

who the hell is brett harper?
   5. Шĥy Posted: December 19, 2006 at 05:50 PM (#2265046)
Those offensive projections look very pessimistic.
   6. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 19, 2006 at 05:51 PM (#2265048)
Beltran looks a little low, Pedro a little (maybe alot) too good.

Oliver Perez' 2004 must still be in there. I think Mets fans would take that mean performance in a heartbeat.
   7. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 19, 2006 at 05:54 PM (#2265058)
Those offensive projections look very pessimistic.

Aside from Beltran, whose?
   8. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 06:01 PM (#2265067)
That Steve Trachsel projection doesn't look so bad right now. He'll make a nice cheap starter for someone.
   9. Sam M. Posted: December 19, 2006 at 06:02 PM (#2265070)
Those offensive projections look very pessimistic.

Aside from Beltran, whose?


Not Milledge, that's for sure. I'm with Rasky -- I'd take that projection in a second. Wow.

LoDuca may be slightly on the pessimistic side, coming off .355/.428, but what do you expect for a catcher his age? 2006 was his best year in a long time, and he'll be 35 in 2007.

That is, I will say, a pretty serious hit in Delgado's slugging -- but I certainly wouldn't be shocked if ZiPS is onto something in his case and he slipped below .500.
   10. Шĥy Posted: December 19, 2006 at 06:05 PM (#2265071)
Aside from Beltran, whose?

Why should Wright be worse than last year? The projection for Valentin is a complete collapse. Only once has he had an ob% under .300 and only once has had a slugging% that low. Delgado slugging under .500? That hasn't happened since 1996. Also, his ob% was only that low last year. I don't see how it is projected to bounce back. Reyes and Lo Duca both seem a little pessimistic.
   11. Шĥy Posted: December 19, 2006 at 06:06 PM (#2265074)
I meant to say I don't see how Delgado's ob% *isn't* projected to bounce back.
   12. JPWF13 Posted: December 19, 2006 at 06:12 PM (#2265080)
What is the reasoning behind Oliver Perez's solid projection? Just another pitcher that ZiPS likes a lot, or what?


It's really hard to have Oliver's K rate and pitch as badly as he has the last 2 years- something has to give.

One thing I'd bet on- nio way does he come close to that projection- he eitehr does a lot better or a lot (and I mean a lot) worse. Unfortunately I think an ERA of 5.50+ is more likely than that projection.
   13. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 06:24 PM (#2265096)
Who the heck is Rashad Eldridge? Whoever he is, he would be a useful bench player who can be shuttled back and forth during the year. Considering some of the projections for the other teams, I actually think ZIPS has been kind to the Mets. Hope that Delgado, Stache, and LoDuca will outperform theirs though.
   14. Sam M. Posted: December 19, 2006 at 06:27 PM (#2265097)
Why should Wright be worse than last year? The projection for Valentin is a complete collapse. Only once has he had an ob% under .300 and only once has had a slugging% that low. Delgado slugging under .500? That hasn't happened since 1996. Also, his ob% was only that low last year. I don't see how it is projected to bounce back. Reyes and Lo Duca both seem a little pessimistic.

Wright is essentially the same as last year. And the same as he was in 2005. Young Man River, he just keeps rolling along.

Projecting Valentin to collapse is not exactly an unreasonable thing to anticipate. He's old, he strikes out a lot, and players like him often go fast when they go.

How is Reyes pessimistic? It sees him consolidating most of the gains he made last year. That is quite optimistic, IMO.

LoDuca is a catcher in his mid-30s. Any projection system worth a damn is going to see some air going out of his tires.
   15. a wider scope of derision Posted: December 19, 2006 at 06:35 PM (#2265103)
<quote>Why should Wright be worse than last year?</quote>

Because the projection is a mean of everything ZiPS reasonably thinks Wright could do. I'm sure the optimistic projection is more along the lines of what you're "expecting".

And I'm not sure it is saying he'll be worse. He loses ten points of batting average but keeps the same OBP and IsoPwr.
   16. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: December 19, 2006 at 07:17 PM (#2265133)
Take yourselves back to just after the 1997 season: Edgardo Alfonzo is coming off a .315/.391/.432 age-23 season with 599 PA. Julio Franco just completed a .270/.369/.360 505 PA age-38 season.

What would your response have been to the question "in 2007, who will be the better player, Alfonzo or Franco?"

Funny stuff.
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2006 at 07:19 PM (#2265134)
Who the heck is Rashad Eldridge?

Someone who shouldn't have a projection that high - I think I pulled a repeat of Kevin West and did the optimistic projection.
   18. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 07:26 PM (#2265138)
Curse you and your false hopes, Szymborski. I was ready to start a "Free Rashad Eldridge" campaign.
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2006 at 07:27 PM (#2265140)
OK, that was Eldridge's 2006 projection in Texas. He had previously put himself on the radar by hitting 294/400/459 for Oklahoma. In 2006, he put himself back off the radar by hitting 220/293/293 for Oklahoma and he got released by the Rangers. The Mets signed him and he continued to hit terribly.
   20. The District Attorney Posted: December 19, 2006 at 07:34 PM (#2265147)
I still think we can package him for Dontrelle.
   21. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 07:36 PM (#2265149)
Hmm, Eldridge has a spotty record, but it's not without hope. I'm glad that the Mets are giving him a 2nd chance.
   22. HowardMegdal Posted: December 19, 2006 at 07:42 PM (#2265152)
Great work, as always, Dan.

Players who will beat their projections: Valentin, Reyes, Delgado (BA especially), O. Perez.

Sadly, Pedro will not.
   23. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 19, 2006 at 07:42 PM (#2265153)
In general, I think the hitting projections are pessimistic and the pitching projections optimistic. How much of that is park effect.

I'm surprised that Delgado doesn't project better than Alou. His "peripheral" stats were better in 2006 stats than his 2005 season as his BABIP was the only difference and he's a lot younger.

Thanks for this Dan.

Basically, Reyes has a 15% chance of being a serious MVP candidate?
   24. danielj Posted: December 19, 2006 at 07:46 PM (#2265154)
I'm sorry, but the name Rashad Eldridge just sounds like that of a basketball player. I believe he is about 6-8 with a long wingspan, but needs to work on his footwork, hit the weight room, and learn what kind of effort it takes to make it in the NBA as opposed to the college game.
   25. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 07:49 PM (#2265156)
Also, it looks like ZIPS predicts that our bullpen takes a significant step back.
   26. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 19, 2006 at 07:58 PM (#2265163)
Well, Heilman's numbers probably look worse because of the starts he's projected to make. Dirty's projection is more than reasonable considering his peripheral stats and Wagner's projection is phenomenal.

The bullpen probably won't be as good as it was last year. The key is for the starting pitcher to perform better.
   27. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:02 PM (#2265166)
Milledge's projection is pretty sweet, btw.
   28. Free Rob Base Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:07 PM (#2265169)
Basically, Reyes has a 15% chance of being a serious MVP candidate?

If he puts up that line -- almost 80 XBHs, 140 Runs and 104 RBI's -- I think he IS the MVP.
   29. Mister High Standards Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:09 PM (#2265170)
Here are the signifigant disagreements between Rally's Chone projections and Dan's Zips.


Michael Tucker* 0.062
Moises Alou 0.049
Paul Lo Duca 0.043
Jose Reyes# 0.039
Ramon Castro 0.038
Chris Woodward0.03
Edgardo Alfonzo 0.027
Julio Franco 0.021
Anderson Hernandez# 0.021


Virtually the same on Belran and Wright. Big differences on Alou, Lo Duca and Reyes.
   30. Mike Green Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:15 PM (#2265176)
A couple of notes on Beltran. Jurgen asked why Beltran's BA projection is so low. His BABIP has always been very low despite his power and speed. He puts the ball in the air plenty and pops up about as much as anyone. Shea Stadium depresses batting average as well, and Beltran will turn 30 just after opening day, so the ZIPS figure is probably not a bad guess. It might be 5 points too low.

But, what an effective base-stealer Beltran has been. 227-32 for his career. Tim Raines was 585-90 through age 29, and Eric Davis was 247-37.
   31. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:16 PM (#2265177)
I miss Zambrano already.
   32. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:19 PM (#2265180)
Yeah, I'll be curious to see if Shea continues to hurt Beltran. Last year, if Beltran had hit as he did on the road, he would have had one of those historic great seasons. I'll be glad when the Mets move to Citi-field, just so that Shea will stop obscuring the greatness of Beltran and Wright.
   33. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:21 PM (#2265183)
A couple of notes on Beltran. Jurgen asked why Beltran's BA projection is so low. His BABIP has always been very low despite his power and speed. He puts the ball in the air plenty and pops up about as much as anyone. Shea Stadium depresses batting average as well, and Beltran will turn 30 just after opening day, so the ZIPS figure is probably not a bad guess. It might be 5 points too low.

Just to add to this, I remember reading an article last year where Beltran said he didn't think he'd hit .300 in a season again. He's changed his approach to hit for more power. That said, his projection is pretty low, obviously skewed by his mediocre 2005 season.
   34. bibigon Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:24 PM (#2265185)
That said, his projection is pretty low, obviously skewed by his mediocre 2005 season.


Alternatively, his projection is pretty high, obviously skewed by his amazing 2006 season.

2005 and 2006 were about equally out of the norm for Beltran.
   35. Sam M. Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:24 PM (#2265186)
I'll be glad when the Mets move to Citi-field, just so that Shea will stop obscuring the greatness of Beltran and Wright.

By the time the Mets move, I suspect Beltran's not going to be the player he was (or is now). Centerfielders don't last like others do.
   36. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:31 PM (#2265190)
2005 and 2006 were about equally out of the norm for Beltran.

Yeah, but the reason Beltran's 2005 season was out of the norm for him was because he played with an injury. If you look at the trend in recent years, it's pretty clear that 2006 is more in line than his 2005 season.

Bibigon, why do you hate the Mets so? The 86 world series was 20 years ago. Let it go.
   37. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:33 PM (#2265192)

By the time the Mets move, I suspect Beltran's not going to be the player he was (or is now). Centerfielders don't last like others do.


I wonder if the architects of Citi-field will/can account for the air-currents which seem to be a major part of Shea's offense depressing effects. Those winds have knocked down some "sure home runs" over the years.

The one that leaps to mind was the Cliff Floyd fly-out in the Glavine Dodgers playoff game last October. After Wright flew out to deep right, Floyd came up. Absolutely crushed the ball. The announcer went - "And there's no way this one staying in the park!!" JD Drew was running back, looks up, and catches the ball on the warning track. Floyd looked stunned that the ball didn't carry out of the park.
   38. bibigon Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:35 PM (#2265193)
Bibigon, why do you hate the Mets so? The 86 world series was 20 years ago. Let it go.


I love the Mets - really. I root for them more than any team other than the Sox. I root for any team whose success causes Yankee fans to squirm, plus some of my best friends are Mets fans.

I'm just a pessimist. I'm like this for the Red Sox too.
   39. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:38 PM (#2265194)
I'll be glad when the Mets move to Citi-field, just so that Shea will stop obscuring the greatness of Beltran and Wright.

By the time the Mets move, I suspect Beltran's not going to be the player he was (or is now). Centerfielders don't last like others do.



And since when is CitiField projected to be a hitters park?
   40. bibigon Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:38 PM (#2265195)
I wonder if the architects of Citi-field will/can account for the air-currents which seem to be a major part of Shea's offense depressing effects.


I'm curious - why would you want less of a pitcher's park? Low offense parks would seem to represent an advantage over high offense parks, by virtue of causing systemically lower pitch counts for your pitchers.
   41. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:38 PM (#2265196)

Yeah, but the reason Beltran's 2005 season was out of the norm for him was because he played with an injury. If you look at the trend in recent years, it's pretty clear that 2006 is more in line than his 2005 season.


Also, Beltran's September should carry a bit of an asterisk. He was hurt from the game-saving catch in Houston. He was really playing well at the time. The injury knocked him out for a while, and Beltran was noticeably hobbled and rusty for while when he came back.
   42. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:42 PM (#2265201)
Also, Beltran's September should carry a bit of an asterisk.

I don't buy that. Injuries like that happen all the time and the ability to perform with some nagging injuries is something a player has to do.
   43. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:42 PM (#2265202)
I'm curious - why would you want less of a pitcher's park?

Years of arguing why Piazza was in a different league as a hitting catcher when compared with Pudge - in those days they were both at their hitting peaks. But Piazza lost so much to Shea, I swore it was the worst possible design of a park for him.
   44. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:45 PM (#2265204)
Injuries like that happen all the time

Injuries like that do not happen all the time. If you want to argue about Beltran's knees, that's fine. But that injury was the result of a remarkable event.
   45. Sam M. Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:47 PM (#2265207)
I want slightly less of a pitcher's park. I want better visibility, which I believe has really been the Shea problem with the stupid lighting they use in night games. But the spacious dimensions that make home runs fair and mean that players earn XBHs and Reyes can use his speed? All that works for me.
   46. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:47 PM (#2265208)
I love the Mets - really.

You sure have a funny way of showing it. Let's trade Milledge and Pelfrey for Dontrelle Willis! or someone else I've heard of, every other week. Your love is going to suffocate the Mets.
   47. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:54 PM (#2265215)
You sure have a funny way of showing it. Let's trade Milledge and Pelfrey for Dontrelle Willis!

To be fair to Bibigon, while that's not a trade that Met brass would make, it's not a Victor Zambrano-Kazmir deal either.
   48. bibigon Posted: December 19, 2006 at 08:55 PM (#2265216)
Let's trade Milledge and Pelfrey for Dontrelle Willis! or someone else I've heard of, every other week. Your love is going to suffocate the Mets.


As I've reiterated many times - I've never proposed trading Milledge and Pelfrey for Willis, nor would I.

I have said I find it plausible that Minaya would make such a trade. There's a difference between predicting a trade, and prescribing it.
   49. The District Attorney Posted: December 19, 2006 at 09:13 PM (#2265224)
I'm sorry, but the name Rashad Eldridge just sounds like that of a basketball player. I believe he is about 6-8 with a long wingspan, but needs to work on his footwork, hit the weight room, and learn what kind of effort it takes to make it in the NBA as opposed to the college game.
"I like this pick" - Hubie Brown
   50. Sam M. Posted: December 19, 2006 at 09:30 PM (#2265234)
I have said I find it plausible that Minaya would make such a trade.

Omar wouldn't do that. Omar might do it for a genuine elite pitcher -- a Carlos Zambrano-caliber pitcher. He'd trade ONE elite prospect, and some filler, for a Willis. Omar knows the difference. He values a Dontrelle Willis, but he knows the difference.
   51. Mister High Standards Posted: December 19, 2006 at 09:46 PM (#2265237)
I'm really excited about watching the rest of Dontrell carrer. Baring injury I won't be suprised to see him elected to the Hall of Fame... in other words I expect he will have a long and steller carrer. If Primer is still up at that point, I wonder what Sam M. will say?
   52. JPWF13 Posted: December 19, 2006 at 09:50 PM (#2265239)
I wonder what Sam M. will say?


It depends on whether any of the productive portion of his career is spent with the Mets- if none are I suspect he will ignore Dontrelle and [pretend he doesn't exist- or rant at how overrated he is/was.

Personally I expect his career to end up looking like Frank Viola's/Chuck Finley's...
   53. Sam M. Posted: December 19, 2006 at 09:53 PM (#2265242)
If Primer is still up at that point, I wonder what Sam M. will say?

Sam M. will say, "Boy, was I wrong about him. Congratulations on a magnificent career, Dontrelle Willis!"

Let's be clear about the nature of my wrongness, though: I think Willis is a very fine, consistent, valuable, pitcher. This isn't Jason Marquis, for goodness sake. In my judgment, he's just not at the elite level, that's all. And there's more evidence to support my view of that than there is the other side.
   54. JPWF13 Posted: December 19, 2006 at 09:54 PM (#2265243)
Injuries like that do not happen all the time. If you want to argue about Beltran's knees, that's fine. But that injury was the result of a remarkable event.


On teh off chance you two are arguing about 2 separate injuries...

Beltran's quad problem appears to be here to stay- it affected him in 2005- but he apparently learned to adjust and compensate for it in 2006.

Beltran's September 2005 performance was affected by his collision with Cameron- just before that play was the only time all year that Beltran lookd comfortable at the plate- collisions like that do not happen all the time
   55. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 19, 2006 at 09:58 PM (#2265246)
JPWF13, we are talking about this year, when Beltran banged his knee against the ball making a great catch in Houston.
   56. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 19, 2006 at 10:04 PM (#2265251)
6 OFers who should be better than Green, why did we trade for him again?

Overall the projections looks pretty good.
   57. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 10:07 PM (#2265253)

Personally I expect his career to end up looking like Frank Viola's/Chuck Finley's...


Finley, I can see the comparisons. But Sweet Music? They're day and night. I would say Cole Hamels has the best resemblance to Viola.
   58. Margo Adams FC Posted: December 19, 2006 at 10:28 PM (#2265257)
To be fair to Bibigon, while that's not a trade that Met brass would make,


You're kidding, right? Your man Minaya would do that in a heartbeat. Willis is worth much to the Mets beyond his pitching skills, and Minaya doesn't value either Milledge or Pelfrey enough to say no to that deal, I believe. Those guys may have lower ceilings than at least three other Mets prospects, for one thing.
   59. Dan Broderick Posted: December 19, 2006 at 10:31 PM (#2265261)
You're kidding, right? Your man Minaya would do that in a heartbeat.

Omar wouldn't do that deal, because if he would it would be done already. No way the Marlins would turn that down.
   60. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 10:34 PM (#2265265)

You're kidding, right? Your man Minaya would do that in a heartbeat. Willis is worth much to the Mets beyond his pitching skills, and Minaya doesn't value either Milledge or Pelfrey enough to say no to that deal, I believe.


Actually, Margo, I believe Minaya is holding out for a Milledge + Pelfrey for Freddy Garcia deal.

Bibigon, this is all your fault.
   61. Spute Posted: December 19, 2006 at 10:35 PM (#2265267)
Would it be possible to see Bannister's projection, since the Burgos-Bannister trade happened after the Royals projections were already out?
   62. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 10:43 PM (#2265274)
Spute, Dan put it in his Transaction Oracle assessing the trade. ZIPS seems to like Burgos more than Bannister.
   63. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 19, 2006 at 10:44 PM (#2265275)
The Mets have been very reluctant to surrender Milledge in most deals, although they have been willing to trade him for Florida's great young left-hander Dontrelle Willis (the Marlins are believed to want Mike Pelfrey in addition to Milledge, a non-starter as far as the Mets are concerned).

It seems every couple of weeks, there's some Red Sox fan telling us that Minaya would do a Pelfrey and Milledge for Willis trade when it was widely reported at the deadline that Minaya et al. weren;t eveb considering it.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/jon_heyman/07/31/mets.trade.deadline/1.html
   64. Swoboda is freedom Posted: December 19, 2006 at 10:45 PM (#2265276)
plus some of my best friends are Mets fans.

You are an anti-Metite
   65. Josh Posted: December 19, 2006 at 10:56 PM (#2265281)
It seems every couple of weeks, there's some Red Sox fan telling us that Minaya would do a Pelfrey and Milledge for Willis tradeIf the Mets included Wright, I think Theo may be tempted to do that for Pedroira.
   66. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:00 PM (#2265282)
FWIW, I don't know that Eldrigde re-upped with the Mets - he was a minor league free agent, last I heard.
   67. Sam M. Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:01 PM (#2265283)
If the Mets included Wright, I think Theo may be tempted to do that for Pedroira.

Well, we DO need a second baseman . . . . But you know, I think it would be wrong to deprive poor kevin of his mancrush. I think we'll have to pass.
   68. karkface killah Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:02 PM (#2265284)
Pedro Martinez 35 3.16 15 6 29 29 188.0 155 66 19 48 177

LOL
   69. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:08 PM (#2265286)
Not to make any assumptions, but could we also get Zito's ZIPS soon, Dan?
   70. Margo Adams FC Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:13 PM (#2265290)
Not to make any assumptions, but could we also get Zito's ZIPS soon, Dan?


That'll cost you six years and $102 million or so... But look on the bright side: you get to keep Milledge and Pelfrey and your ironic sensibility, if not your innocence
   71. Margo Adams FC Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:27 PM (#2265296)
It seems every couple of weeks, there's some Red Sox fan telling us that Minaya would do a Pelfrey and Milledge for Willis trade when it was widely reported at the deadline that Minaya et al. weren;t eveb considering it.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/jon_heyman/07/31/mets.trade.deadline/1.html


Is it not possible, nay, even likely, that had Omar gone ahead and done this you'd be speculating about whether or not the Amazins will repeat about now? So I guess I hope you're happy with the kids for however many more months they stay in your system... Some of my best friends are Mets fans too, by the way. I love you people...
   72. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:29 PM (#2265298)
That'll cost you six years and $102 million or so... But look on the bright side: you get to keep Milledge and Pelfrey and your ironic sensibility, if not your innocence

What does that even mean?

Just for fun, I decided to see how the projected rotation would do compared with what the Met rotation did last year. I did assume that Maine and Pelfrey would combine to pitch 90 more innings (339 IP altogether).

Last year, the Mets rotation put up a 4.67 ERA in 918.2 IP.

The projected rotation of Glavine, Pelfrey, Maine, Perez, El Duque, and Humber puts up an ERA of 4.34 over 892 IP.
   73. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:36 PM (#2265301)
Is it not possible, nay, even likely, that had Omar gone ahead and done this you'd be speculating about whether or not the Amazins will repeat about now?

If you want to discuss whether Minaya made a mistake by not taking that deal, that's perfectly reasonable and if there's somethign Met fans around here are always up to, it's a reasonable disucssion. That's a lot different from this statement though;


Your man Minaya would do that in a heartbeat.
   74. Raskolnikov Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:37 PM (#2265302)

Is it not possible, nay, even likely, that had Omar gone ahead and done this you'd be speculating about whether or not the Amazins will repeat about now?


As opposed to this spring, when most of the media and public will be speculating whether or not the Amazins will repeat.

So I guess I hope you're happy with the kids for however many more months they stay in your system...

I'm hoping for about 200 months more in our system each for Pelfrey and Milledge.

Some of my best friends are Mets fans too, by the way. I love you people...

Bibigon, Artist, Gaelan, and Vaux don't count. Just because they enjoy trading Mets prospects, it doesn't make them Mets fans ...
   75. Margo Adams FC Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:39 PM (#2265304)
The projected rotation of Glavine, Pelfrey, Maine, Perez, El Duque, and Humber puts up an ERA of 4.34 over 892 IP.


Please, I feel like I've walked into a funhouse. I'm obviously a crazy Epstein fanboy, so would some other non-Mets fan kindly put the over/under on the total number of innings these people will actually pitch for the Mets next season, and on the rotation era if that's the rotation? 'Cause I see par here at maybe 500 IP and a 4.80 era.
   76. Margo Adams FC Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:43 PM (#2265308)
As opposed to this spring, when most of the media and public will be speculating whether or not the Amazins will repeat.


Repeat what -- the upset NCS exit?

Bibigon, Artist, Gaelan, and Vaux don't count. Just because they enjoy trading Mets prospects, it doesn't make them Mets fans ...


I count J. Cross as a friend. I have other Mets fan friends. I've lived in Brooklyn. Did I miss a secret handshake or something?
   77. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:44 PM (#2265310)
I think the hitting projections are pessimistic and the pitching projections optimistic.

That's my quote from earlier in this thread and I did but the qualifier that I was just doing that for fun. I don't think there's a single Met fan around here who doesn't think the Mets don't need at least one more reliable starter. And it's not like I used a CFBPS to get those numbers, I just used ZIPS.
   78. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:46 PM (#2265314)
That's my quote from earlier in this thread and I did add the qualifier that I was just doing that for fun. I don't think there's a single Met fan around here who doesn't think the Mets <strike> don't</strike> need at least one more reliable starter. And it's not like I used a CFBPS to get those numbers, I just used ZIPS.

Sorry for my horrible post. I need an edit button.
   79. J. Cross Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:48 PM (#2265318)
I count J. Cross as a friend.

Thanks, I've always viewed Mets and Sox fans as natural friend joined by their hatred of the Yankees.

Is it not possible, nay, even likely, that had Omar gone ahead and done this you'd be speculating about whether or not the Amazins will repeat about now? So I guess I hope you're happy with the kids for however many more months they stay in your system...

This sounds like someone who would trade Billingsley, Elbert and Carlos Gonzalez for Matsuzaka.

btw, I just listened in a a phone interview with Will Carroll about the gyroball (a couple physics students at my school are doing a research project on it). I think I've finally figured this pitch out.
   80. Orange & Blue Velvet Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:56 PM (#2265320)
13 HR's? Milledge? Shea Stadium? *scoffs* That's rather optimistic. He hit exactly 13 once in his entire pro career, as a 19 yo in Low-A.
   81. JPWF13 Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:58 PM (#2265322)
Please, I feel like I've walked into a funhouse... 'Cause I see par here at maybe 500 IP and a 4.80 era.


In Shea????
Glavine, Pelfrey, Maine, Perez, El Duque, and Humber

let's see 2006 IP for those 6 was 719 so methinks your 2007 par for IP is a wee bit low- if you add Pelfry & Humber's minor league IP that # goes up to 892....

4.80??? In the NL? in Shea? - so essentially you see the worst rotation in recent Mets history?
who's walking in/out of that funhouse???
   82. Margo Adams FC Posted: December 19, 2006 at 11:59 PM (#2265323)
This sounds like someone who would trade Billingsley, Elbert and Carlos Gonzalez for Matsuzaka.


Hee-hee. Note that I said Omar would do it; I didn't say it'd be a good idea. Except that over the last year and the next couple it clearly would/would have been...
   83. J. Cross Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:00 AM (#2265324)
13 HR's? Milledge? Shea Stadium? *scoffs* That's rather optimistic. He hit exactly 13 once in his entire pro career, as a 19 yo in Low-A.

We'll he actually hit 15 that year split between low and high A

He hit 12 the next year split between low A, high A and AA.

Then he hit 11 last year in 473 AB split between AAA and MLB.

But, you're right, the idea of a 21 yr. old adding a little power is preposterous.
   84. JPWF13 Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:03 AM (#2265325)
Finley, I can see the comparisons. But Sweet Music? They're day and night. I would say Cole Hamels has the best resemblance to Viola.


I wasn't saying they were similar pitchers- I just said I thought his CAREER woudl look similar on the back of a baseball card- I don't really have anyone in mind as being "similar" to Dontrelle as a pitcher.

Hamels- statistically- looks NOTHING like Viola- which was the type of comparison I was making
   85. Margo Adams FC Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:03 AM (#2265326)
Pelfrey and Humber are ticketed for AAA, so it will be hard for them to help the big-league ballclub from New Orleans.
   86. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:04 AM (#2265328)
He hit exactly 13 once in his entire pro career, as a 19 yo in Low-A.

For all his stuggles last year at the big league level, he did hit 4 homers in 166 ABs which projects to 12 in the 498 ABs he's projected to have next season. I don't think 13 homers is that optimistic.
   87. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:05 AM (#2265330)
Please, I feel like I've walked into a funhouse. I'm obviously a crazy Epstein fanboy, so would some other non-Mets fan kindly put the over/under on the total number of innings these people will actually pitch for the Mets next season, and on the rotation era if that's the rotation? 'Cause I see par here at maybe 500 IP and a 4.80 era.

The most unreasonably optimistic predictions being stated here are much more likely than the 500 IP and 4.80 that you see as "par." Those numbers are just silly. Every single pitcher named would have to both get seriously hurt and pitch terrible when healthy in order for that to happen. I don't really know how to respond.
   88. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:08 AM (#2265331)
Pelfrey and Humber are ticketed for AAA, so it will be hard for them to help the big-league ballclub from New Orleans.

Well, if you don't think the other 4 are going to be healthy enough to make it through the season or effective enough to post ERA+s better than about 90, Pelfrey and Humber are both locks to be pitching in New York.
   89. J. Cross Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:08 AM (#2265332)
Note that I said Omar would do it; I didn't say it'd be a good idea. Except that over the last year and the next couple it clearly would/would have been...

Fair enough

Pelfrey and Humber are ticketed for AAA, so it will be hard for them to help the big-league ballclub from New Orleans.

Only if we assume that the Mets add a starter. If the Mets went in with the group list in the ZiPS above, Pelfrey would stand a good chance of being the #5 starter and Humber would have a fair chance of being the first in line if someone went down mid-season.
   90. 1k5v3L Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:10 AM (#2265333)
Wow. ZIPS sure loves Shawn Green. 751 OPS?

And let's not forget about his gold glove caliber defense.
   91. Mister High Standards Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:12 AM (#2265336)

Let's be clear about the nature of my wrongness, though: I think Willis is a very fine, consistent, valuable, pitcher. This isn't Jason Marquis, for goodness sake. In my judgment, he's just not at the elite level, that's all. And there's more evidence to support my view of that than there is the other side.


Its so easy to forget how good and young Dontrell has been. I Sam is of course going to say, just one year... and of course that is a load of pooppy #### because he doesn't say that about Reyes, and guess what that year counts.

Anywhere he is a list of pitchers who post expansion have won as many games as Dontrell and prevented as many runs relative to average:

W RSAA
Dwight Gooden 100 116
Bert Blyleven 95 171
Frank Tanana 84 101
Fernando Valenz 78 79
Dennis Eck 77 112
Gary Nolan 76 97
Bret Saberhagen 69 86
Ken Holtzman 65 71
Dean Chance 62 72
Roger Clemens 60 105
Dontrelle Willis58 60


Thats a pretty fantastic list. If Willis stays healthy I think Sam will be proven very wrong on how elite a talent Willis is.
   92. Josh Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:15 AM (#2265340)
So, this DOES have something to do with Frank Tanana?
   93. 1k5v3L Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:19 AM (#2265344)
Well, MHS, Willis is no Glavine. You can forgive Sam for not being in love with D-train.
   94. NBarnes Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:23 AM (#2265348)
Bibigon, why do you hate the Mets so? The 86 world series was 20 years ago. Let it go.

The last time you noticed a Boston fan letting something go was... when, again? We have our grudges stuffed and mounted for posterity.
   95. J. Cross Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:24 AM (#2265350)
And let's not forget about his gold glove caliber defense.

I'll try not to but it was has been seven years now.
   96. Orange & Blue Velvet Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:25 AM (#2265351)
But, you're right, the idea of a 21 yr. old adding a little power is preposterous.
Not preposterous... only optimistic. I just don't think he'll add as much power as you do. Milo's 'doubles' power won't become over-the-wall power like it might for other prospects.

I also think the K's are low and the average is high.
   97. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:28 AM (#2265352)
MHS, that's a good list, but I don't think it really does anything to counter Sam's opinion of Willis. Outside of Clemens and to a lesser extent Blyleven, no one on that list remained an elite pitcher for an extended period of time. They're mostly solid, above-average innings eaters who all finished with careers that were less than HOF caliber. That seems to be what Sam expects of Willis, and I don't think that's unreasonable.
   98. Margo Adams FC Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:37 AM (#2265357)
Personal highs, IP:

Glavine: 246 2/3 Comment: Will be 41 on Opening day

El Duque 214 1/3 in 1999
Most since '99: 162 1/3 last year
Average since '99: 135 IP (throwing out the year he didn't pitch)

Pelfrey: 139 2/3 ('05 Wichita St.) 117 2/3 (past year, pros) AA BB/9 in '06: 3.53

Maine: 168 1/3 ('05 Balt/Ottawa) Last year: 146 2/3

Oliver Perez 196 ('04 Pitt) Last year: 158 2/3 MLB WHIP: wrong side of 1.7

Philip Humber: 128 (Rice '03)

You havce a lot of talent here, but also lots of question marks beyond glavine and maine, assuming you're sold on Maine. I grant you 4.80 might be kinda high for Shea. But I don't think this bunch will pitch even 800 innings in '07, if only because Omar's not that stupid.
   99. Mister High Standards Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:39 AM (#2265359)
no one on that list remained an elite pitcher


Actually the reason most of them weren't elite pitchers were injuries. The Sams objection is that he isn't that he will likely get hurt, but that he isn't all that good. Holtzman is the only who imho fits what Sam is describing.
   100. Raskolnikov Posted: December 20, 2006 at 12:47 AM (#2265364)
Please, I feel like I've walked into a funhouse.

That would be "Count the Ringz," which would be a couple of links down. Rlr will gladly show you the wat.

I'm obviously a crazy Epstein fanboy, [...] and on the rotation era if that's the rotation? 'Cause I see par here at maybe 500 IP and a 4.80 era.

I didn't realize Theoism also confers the gift of Cassandra. Dan should scrap his ZIPS and ask you to "see" what the projections will be next year. Instead of CHONE or ZIPS, we could call it MARGO.

Is it not possible, nay, even likely, that had Omar gone ahead and done this you'd be speculating about whether or not the Amazins will repeat about now

Repeat what -- the upset NCS exit?
?

I'm not sure. But I'd figure I'd let you answer your own question, unless it was some other voice in your head.

Hee-hee. Note that I said Omar would do it; I didn't say it'd be a good idea. Except that over the last year and the next couple it clearly would/would have been...

Ahh, we come to the fallback reason - "I don't think it's a good idea, but what the heck, they're not my prospects" argument. Sorry, bibigon took that argument already.
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