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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Sunday, December 24, 2006
2007 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A’s
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Dan Johnson* 1b 27 .273 .365 .469 139 480 72 131 29 1 21 88 69 74 0 1
Nick Swisher# lf 26 .250 .364 .470 148 515 95 129 27 1 28 85 87 133 0 2
Matt Watson* rf 28 .274 .349 .460 111 387 63 106 26 2 14 68 42 58 5 2
Eric Chavez* 3b 29 .260 .352 .453 136 508 78 132 27 1 23 80 72 102 4 1
Mike Piazza dh 38 .269 .342 .463 96 320 34 86 17 0 15 49 34 49 0 0
Erubiel Durazo* dh 33 .279 .363 .425 101 341 37 95 20 0 10 46 43 69 1 1
Milton Bradley# rf 29 .268 .351 .433 108 400 57 107 19 1 15 58 49 84 9 4
Daric Barton* 1b 21 .263 .355 .408 127 434 74 114 29 2 10 61 62 72 1 1
Travis Buck* lf 22 .271 .331 .439 86 321 39 87 32 2 6 34 28 57 6 2
Keith Ginter 2b 31 .249 .336 .401 102 357 43 89 24 0 10 53 39 67 2 0
Mark Kotsay* cf 31 .277 .339 .393 115 466 55 129 26 2 8 55 44 55 5 3
Hiram Bocachica rf 31 .253 .333 .419 85 265 27 67 12 1 10 31 28 65 10 6
Mark Ellis 2b 30 .265 .331 .390 135 480 71 127 26 2 10 54 44 74 2 1
Bobby Kielty# lf 30 .250 .325 .397 78 252 32 63 14 1 7 36 27 47 1 0
Jason Kendall c 33 .283 .360 .335 129 505 66 143 23 0 1 47 47 41 7 4
Bobby Crosby ss 27 .243 .322 .394 109 404 57 98 23 1 12 48 46 87 5 1
Jason Perry* rf 26 .256 .319 .408 116 395 50 101 20 2 12 54 33 100 2 3
Brant Colamarino* 1b 26 .247 .306 .421 128 477 52 118 30 4 15 70 38 102 1 1
Charles Thomas* lf 28 .254 .326 .370 115 362 48 92 15 3 7 42 33 71 7 5
D’Angelo Jimenez# 2b 29 .246 .333 .352 111 386 50 95 21 1 6 41 50 57 7 4
Marco Scutaro 2b 31 .254 .316 .374 119 382 46 97 22 3 6 38 34 56 2 1
Antonio Perez 3b 27 .250 .315 .383 113 332 48 83 16 2 8 39 28 77 15 8
John Baker* c 26 .243 .305 .376 125 428 59 104 26 2 9 55 37 109 2 0
Adam Melhuse# c 35 .234 .298 .406 45 128 13 30 7 0 5 18 10 34 0 1
Jeremy Brown c 27 .229 .301 .371 93 315 37 72 18 0 9 37 30 66 0 0
Raul Casanova c 34 .238 .290 .395 73 248 26 59 12 0 9 34 17 36 0 0
Mark Kiger ss 27 .241 .322 .340 118 406 56 98 20 1 6 30 46 92 7 3
Kurt Suzuki c 23 .233 .315 .355 118 420 59 98 26 2 7 44 47 63 3 3
Javier Herrera cf 22 .240 .292 .381 98 341 53 82 16 1 10 39 23 107 17 4
Kevin Melillo* 2b 25 .236 .307 .366 137 470 57 111 27 2 10 52 46 91 9 5
Ryan Goleski rf 25 .224 .291 .389 124 424 51 95 25 0 15 54 37 130 4 3
Brian Snyder 3b 25 .228 .315 .328 109 351 41 80 15 1 6 44 44 96 2 1
J.J. Furmaniak ss 27 .238 .287 .352 123 420 50 100 18 3 8 42 26 91 9 6
Donnie Murphy 2b 24 .218 .260 .363 97 353 33 77 22 1 9 30 17 66 3 3
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Nick Swisher
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .271 .394 .524 162 565 120 153 34 2 35 115 107 135 1 1
Mean .250 .364 .470 148 515 95 129 27 1 28 85 87 133 0 2
Pessimistic (15%) .231 .339 .409 103 359 59 83 16 0 16 47 57 99 0 2
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Huston Street 23 2.59 6 1 68 0 73.0 60 21 4 17 68
Joe Kennedy* 28 3.29 3 2 40 1 41.0 40 15 2 14 30
Justin Duchscherer 29 3.35 6 3 58 0 78.0 73 29 9 19 62
Rich Harden 25 3.44 9 5 25 23 144.0 125 55 11 54 126
Kiko Calero 32 3.54 4 2 63 0 61.0 53 24 6 21 59
Danny Haren 26 4.09 14 12 34 33 211.0 213 96 31 53 167
Ron Flores* 27 4.27 5 5 55 0 59.0 58 28 7 25 45
Brad Halsey* 26 4.32 8 8 38 22 146.0 158 70 15 45 84
Chad Gaudin 24 4.33 8 7 41 17 131.0 136 63 16 45 79
Barry Zito* 29 4.37 13 12 34 34 214.0 209 104 27 90 156
Jay Witasick 34 4.42 2 1 51 1 59.0 59 29 6 29 48
Shawn Kohn 27 4.50 2 3 50 0 70.0 72 35 11 21 50
Scott Dunn 29 4.56 5 5 44 4 81.0 81 41 9 39 66
Erasmo Ramirez* 31 4.58 3 3 42 0 53.0 60 27 8 9 25
Jason Windsor 24 4.59 9 9 27 26 153.0 167 78 19 49 96
Joe Blanton 26 4.66 12 13 32 31 193.0 213 100 24 61 103
Esteban Loaiza 35 4.67 10 11 31 29 187.0 208 97 22 56 113
Alan Embree* 37 4.68 3 3 67 0 50.0 52 26 7 14 38
Dan Meyer* 25 4.88 5 6 20 18 94.0 98 51 14 39 71
Marcus McBeth 26 4.93 3 4 62 0 73.0 70 40 12 33 65
Kirk Saarloos 28 4.98 7 8 29 20 130.0 148 72 16 53 55
Scott Sauerbeck* 35 5.34 0 1 59 0 32.0 34 19 5 17 23
Santiago Casilla 27 5.40 0 1 35 0 40.0 42 24 6 18 31
Shane Komine 26 5.53 6 9 22 21 127.0 148 78 21 49 60
Kazuhito Tadano 27 5.59 3 5 32 7 87.0 100 54 18 27 59
Juan Dominguez 27 5.63 5 9 28 17 112.0 129 70 19 45 58
Jerome Williams 25 5.66 6 12 31 24 148.0 173 93 23 56 64
Brandon Puffer 31 5.79 2 5 51 0 70.0 83 45 12 27 36
Victor Moreno 28 5.84 3 6 39 9 94.0 105 61 13 53 54
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Danny Haren
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.35 19 10 34 34 226 211 84 27 49 186
Mean 4.09 14 12 34 33 211 213 96 31 53 167
Pessimistic (15%) 4.89 10 12 29 27 171 187 93 29 48 128
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 24, 2006 at 08:32 PM | 46 comment(s)
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1. number 6 Posted: December 24, 2006 at 08:51 PM (#2268137)Matt Watson!
Keith Ginter!
oh my!
Poor Jerome Williams. Oh yeah, that's right, Zito used to be on the A's...
This team lacks... hitting. Especially if Crosby lives up to that projection, they're so screwed. (But where's Durazo? REINSTATE ERUBIEL DURAZO!)
1) Hard to believe Johnson projects better than Swisher.
2) That's a lotta HR for Blanton and Haren.
3) Is there anything Embree can do that Flores (or even Erasmo) can't?
4) I wouldn't be surprised if Durazo is Piazza's equal.
5) I'd be very happy with those performances out of Kennedy, Halsey, Gaudin, and Windsor.
6) A HR for Kendall!
7) Looks like Melhuse is wasting a $1M that could go to Brown or Baker, and Suzuki will have to take one of their spots in AAA anyway.
Nice staff though -- well, if Harden is healthy and Haren doesn't get hurt. Saarloos hasn't had an ERA that bad since 2002 so I'll take the under.
I thought Flores had trouble with left-handed hitters -- 2006 .323 BAA, .273 Career BAA. Not good for a LOOGY. Embree is .240 lefty BAA in 2006, .239 Career. Erasmo was .239 lefty 2006 BAA in AAA, so I'm guessing that he's not quite as good as Embree.
Like number6 in #1 I'm amazed that Johnson, Watson, Durazo and Ginter are all going to be better than Kotsay, Ellis, Kendall and Crosby. Not that I think it can't happen, it's just pathetic.
Dave Ferriss (959) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
Juan Marichal (966) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
Mike Hampton (971) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
Mike Hampton (976) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
Mike Hampton (963) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
per BB-Ref
fertile stuff for soothsayers and neo-historians
does the Boras Corp. sell the future,the past or tack to intangibles
love to have spycam on this negotiation
Embree's allowed a .238/.299/.371 career line against LHB. In a very small sample (46 PA), Flores is at .273/.304/.364. That's pretty equal. Flores was also at .238/.347/.262 against LHB in AAA last year.
I think the A's could put a very good bullpen together without Witasick and Embree. I don't think they're bad to have around in the abstract, but I think guys like Flores, Halsey, Saarloos (who has a 3.50 career ERA as a reliever), and hopefully McBeth could do just as well--and the money would be much better spent on an OF that can play everyday when Kotsay or Bradley goes down.
On the pitching side, over on Street, under on Duke, over on Calero, under Haren, over Blanton, under Loaiza.
Team's got a lot of question marks, much like last year. I don't see us being particularly better, either. The only turnover we're looking at right now, is, what, Thomas and Zito to Piazza and Kennedy? That's a pretty significant downgrade, and you'd have to get some nice gains out of Crosby, Ellis, Chavez, and even Swisher just to make up that difference. Then you'd need Blanton and Loaiza to improve, and a healthy Harden before you can think about improving at all on 2006. I try to stay optimistic in the offseason, but that's a whole lot to ask.
I would. Shocked, in fact. Piazza will be outstanding, Danny. Not Thomas-like, unfortunately, which is going to make it a downgrade from the A's POV. But I believe he'll take to DH'ing very well and have an excellent year, outperforming that ZiPS.
I wouldn't bet on this. The successful late-career switch from C is always seen as a boon to hitting, but it's rarely been the case. (Of course few have hit this well this late in their careers to even think about it) Piazza had a nice little bounce back last year (OPS+ of 120) but given his previous two seasons I get a quick Marcel OPS+ of 112 without any age decline. Add age and Piazza 2004-2005 seems more likely than Piazza 2006. Last year, that would translate to an OPS in Oakland of about 800.
Durazo's career OPS+ is 125 and in his last full season (granted, that was 2004), it was 136. He's no spring chicken and a huge question mark because of the injury, so I'm not saying I'd project him to hit better than Piazza, but I wouldn't be surprised, much less "shocked." And he just might project to hit righties better than Piazza.
But there should be enough playing time for both (especially if Durazo can fake 1B or Piazza still play some C) so at the moment this is a "tacos or beer" sort of question.
With an age adjustment and regression I have him projected for a 106 OPS+ next year, which works out to an RCAA of +7 per 150 games (not that Piazza's likely to sniff 150 games)--about three runs better than the average DH.
FWIW, Piazza has done well as a DH, even though these games (49) have disproportionately come during the declining phase of his career as a hitter. In 191 career ABs, Piazza has hit .304/.363/.529. I think that's at least some evidence he will experience a rejuvenating effect, a la Joe Torre. Minimal evidence, perhaps, but he is Mike Piazza. Bet against him at your own risk.
I think they're looking for Buck to fill this role, for better or worse, possibly in a platoon with Kielty, but maybe even playing every day. It makes some sense to let your best (albeit not great) prospects develop while stockpiling pitching depth. I'm less optimistic about next year than any since 1998.
Torre made the permanent switch from C at age 30 after spending the majority of age 28 at 1B and half of 29 at 3B, which is probably different. Even so, other than his miracle age 30 season, he hit no better and really a bit worse after making the switch -- i.e. a relatively normal age-based decline. Of course we have no idea how long the move may have extended his career and, if nothing else, getting his bat in 150-160 games instead of 130-150 was nice.
Not that you were necessarily using Torre as a comp for Piazza, I was just pointing out that it's not clear Torre's bat rejuvenated with the move.
Piazza's been a great hitter of course and it's certainly possible that, like Thomas, he's got 1 or 2 seasons of his old self left in there. Just don't forget that Durazo was a very good hitter (never as good as Piazza) and Piazza hasn't posted an OPS+ above Durazo's career average since 2002. Of course Durazo hasn't done anything since 2004, so he's no sure bet. It's Piazza's age-based decline plus any DH rejuvenation from a 110ish OPS+ base vs. Durazo's age/injury/inactivity-based decline from a 125ish OPS+ base. Looks pretty even to me.
I'll say that I might well have rather rolled the dice on a platoon of Durazo and Phelps for $1 M (again especially if Durazo can play some 1B or Phelps can play some C/1B ... and I'm not sure either of those is true) and spent my Piazza money elsewhere if I was the A's.
By the way, if Durazo can't play 1B and Piazza can't/won't play C (or the A's won't let him), then it seems impossible for the A's to carry both on their roster.
And by the time Torre was the age Piazza is now, he'd been retired from playing for over a year.
I would settle for for Comeback Player of the Year. Any word on his health, Danny?
That's a little premature, isn't it? Barton just turned 21 in August after all.
Dan, no, it's WAY premature. I fully expect him to outhit Hatteberg. But the continued lack of power gets a little more concerning each year, and as a 1B/DH with no defensive value, it's pretty important for him to develop some pop. Do you view him in the same light you did two years ago?
Every mainstream sportswriter will pick the Angels unless the Rangers acquire a top starting pitcher.
Crosby has a career SLG of .405, and ZIPS has him at .394? It sounds like ZIPS is overweighting last year's injury influenced .338. How does ZIPS adjust for seasons performed while injured?
Because if Crosby isn't hurt, why isn't a return to somewhere near his age 25 line of .346/.456 not likely?
Crosby has a career SLG of .405, and ZIPS has him at .394? It sounds like ZIPS is overweighting last year's injury influenced .338. How does ZIPS adjust for seasons performed while injured?
Because if Crosby isn't hurt, why isn't a return to somewhere near his age 25 line of .346/.456 not likely?
Well Crosby was supposedly lying about his injuries last year. I prefer to think he hurt his back in spring training (picking up soap?). That would make his projections a bit better...
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