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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, December 29, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Jason Bay           lf 28 .279 .378 .521 148 530 88 148 32 3 30 88 80 138 9 1
Xavier Nady         rf 28 .280 .341 .467 123 407 56 114 26 1 16 57 29 72 2 1
Freddy Sanchez       3b 29 .306 .348 .432 140 500 67 153 41 2 6 61 29 47 2 1
Jose Bautista         cf 26 .255 .338 .431 141 483 66 123 27 2 18 60 51 113 3 4
Joe Randa           3b 37 .274 .337 .412 101 354 44 97 26 1 7 38 31 56 0 1
Ryan Doumit#        c   26 .252 .322 .438 97 290 40 73 19 1 11 41 21 65 2 1
Jody Gerut*          rf 29 .254 .330 .424 108 401 54 102 25 2 13 53 42 54 8 5
Adam Boeve           rf 27 .268 .340 .389 113 380 47 102 20 1 8 43 37 107 13 5
John Castellano       lf 29 .274 .323 .418 87 292 31 80 18 0 8 40 17 43 1 1
Nate McLouth*        cf 25 .267 .325 .409 131 416 71 111 28 2 9 38 32 70 21 8
Chris Duffy*        cf 27 .274 .326 .389 110 409 64 112 21 4 6 33 25 82 22 7
Ronny Paulino         c   26 .272 .327 .378 132 452 47 123 22 1 8 49 36 83 1 0
Jeromy Burnitz*      rf 38 .246 .316 .414 117 406 52 100 21 1 15 54 38 86 2 3
Brent Lillibridge     ss 23 .251 .335 .369 129 450 67 113 23 3 8 40 54 99 32 12
Raul Gonzalez         rf 33 .256 .315 .379 86 309 37 79 18 1 6 35 24 41 4 2
Yurendell de Caster     3b 37 .255 .308 .403 121 404 44 103 23 2 11 43 29 103 4 5
Jack Wilson         ss 29 .270 .312 .377 137 530 63 143 25 4 8 40 30 61 5 2
Jose Castillo         2b 26 .256 .304 .388 130 446 50 114 21 1 12 52 29 79 4 2
Mike Edwards         3b 30 .250 .317 .362 103 340 43 85 21 1 5 32 31 56 4 3
Brad Eldred         1b 26 .223 .262 .474 62 215 27 48 12 0 14 29 11 82 1 1
Chris Aguila         lf 28 .251 .312 .366 110 295 36 74 15 2 5 33 25 78 6 4
Andrew McCutchen       cf 20 .255 .305 .372 154 599 69 153 27 2 13 57 41 130 18 10
Simon Pond*          3b 30 .228 .300 .373 107 373 39 85 25 1 9 48 36 95 2 1
Chris Truby         3b 33 .228 .295 .384 102 346 45 79 22 1 10 41 30 83 4 2
Rich Thompson*        lf 28 .259 .320 .352 115 375 59 97 13 5 4 27 29 61 24 14
Don Kelly*          ss 27 .250 .313 .330 128 460 57 115 24 2 3 42 41 55 13 6
Ray Sadler           rf 26 .228 .284 .392 121 395 40 90 19 2 14 44 29 108 8 6
David Parrish         c   28 .239 .300 .338 73 234 23 56 11 0 4 24 20 50 0 0
Eddy Garabito#        ss 30 .245 .309 .327 122 416 45 102 20 1 4 38 37 53 11 7
Rajai Davis#        cf 26 .251 .301 .340 123 430 58 108 22 2 4 23 29 74 26 12
Neil Walker#        c   21 .239 .272 .354 140 511 59 122 34 2 7 48 21 84 4 4
Humberto Cota         c   28 .223 .267 .355 73 220 19 49 12 1 5 27 13 59 0 0
Tripper Johnson       3b 25 .224 .278 .342 113 398 42 89 25 2 6 34 27 66 2 2
Nyjer Morgan*        cf 26 .258 .307 .316 114 415 58 107 13 4 1 21 21 68 30 17
Mike Ryan*          rf 29 .227 .281 .338 104 308 27 70 14 1 6 29 23 64 2 3
Javier Guzman         ss 23 .237 .275 .317 144 518 51 123 20 3 5 35 25 73 11 8

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Freddy Sanchez
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .328 .374 .490 155 555 87 182 51 3 11 87 36 46 3 1
Mean         .306 .348 .432 140 500 67 153 41 2 6 61 29 47 2 1      
Pessimistic (15%) .293 .327 .398 109 392 46 115 30 1 3 40 18 40 1 2

Top Comps: Felix Mantilla, Ken Oberkfell

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Mike Gonzalez*        29   2.45   5   1 55   0   55.0   41   15   2   26   65
Salomon Torres         35   3.44   6   4 83   0   89.0   86   34   6   32   61
Matt Capps           23   3.87   4   3 88   0   86.0   92   37   9   13   58
Zach Duke*          24   3.92 14 12 33 33   216.0 232   94 18   59 127
Damaso Marte*        32   3.97   5   4 71   0   59.0   53   26   6   29   58
Tom Gorzelanny*        24   4.06   9   8 27 27   153.0 150   69 14   58 110
Josh Sharpless         26   4.11   2   2 44   0   57.0   51   26   4   33   49
John Grabow*          28   4.23   3   3 70   0   66.0   66   31   7   26   56
Giovanni Carrara       39   4.43   4   3 54   0   61.0   58   30   8   27   49
Allan Simpson         29   4.43   3   4 54   0   69.0   64   34   8   34   64
Franquelis Osoria       25   4.44   6   5 58   0   81.0   86   40   8   28   49
Ian Snell           25   4.53 10 11 31 28   169.0 171   85 25   62 140
Matt Whiteside         39   4.61   2   2 38   0   41.0   43   21   7   12   33
Paul Maholm*          25   4.63   8   9 30 30   177.0 188   91 19   75 115
Marty McLeary         32   4.67   4   5 39 12   106.0 111   55 12   45   78
Jonah Bayliss         26   4.69   3   3 53   0   71.0   67   37   9   38   65
Brian Rogers         24   4.73   3   4 55   0   78.0   82   41 12   25   63
Britt Reames         33   4.75   3   5 29   7   72.0   76   38   8   26   51
David Davidson*        23   4.76   3   4 46   3   87.0   83   46   8   54   68
Shane Youman*        27   4.76   6   9 38 16   136.0 150   72 16   46   66
John Wasdin           34   4.88   5   8 31 17   129.0 139   70 20   43   83
Victor Santos         30   5.08   5 10 26 20   124.0 141   70 15   48   76
Franklin Perez         32   5.35   4   6 34   8   74.0   84   44 12   27   42
Bryan Bullington       26   5.37   6 10 22 21   124.0 139   74 23   44   78
Josh Shortslef*        25   5.42   4   8 18 18   103.0 119   62 15   40   57
Chad Blackwell         24   5.43   4   7 40   0   68.0   75   41   8   34   42
Ryan Vogelsong         29   5.47   3   7 31 11   97.0 107   59 14   41   60
Shawn Chacon         29   5.50   5   9 29 18   108.0 116   66 16   57   60
Terry Adams           34   5.53   3   5 46   0   57.0   66   35   8   24   34
Jim Brower           34   5.61   4   6 69   0   77.0   85   48 10   37   54
Wardell Starling       24   5.66   7 14 30 30   170.0 200 107 28   67   77
Landon Jacobsen       28   5.69   6 12 23 20   125.0 145   79 16   56   51
John van Benschoten     27   5.89   5 11 25 24   133.0 146   87 23   68   85
Sean Burnett*        24   6.15   5 12 24 23   117.0 141   80 20   53   45
Mike Connolly*        25   6.21   5 11 25 24   126.0 146   87 24   61   70
Jason Roach           31   6.32   4   9 28 19   121.0 148   85 22   45   50
Juan Perez           26   6.39   1   4 46   0   69.0   78   49 12   42   47
Ron Chiavacci         29   6.46   3   8 25 11   85.0   98   61 16   46   49
Matt Peterson         25   6.90   4 12 29 22   133.0 158 102 28   78   76
Kevin Cave           27   7.90   1   5 43   0   49.0   56   43 10   39   32

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Zach Duke
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.36 18 10 34 34 225 227   84 15   54 138
Mean           3.92 14 12 33 33 216 232   94 18   59 128
Pessimistic (15%)  4.70   9 12 28 28 176 203   92 20   54   98

Top Comps:  Mark Buehrle, Dave McNally

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 29, 2006 at 10:31 PM | 47 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. joshtothemaxx Posted: December 29, 2006 at 11:09 PM (#2271082)
Anytime Xavier Nady is #2 on the ZIPS list, you know you're in trouble offensively.
   2. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 29, 2006 at 11:21 PM (#2271088)
Ick ick ick ick ick ick ick ick ick.

That's, what, four players I'd want on my team next year, only two -- maybe three -- of whom I'd feel comfortable letting play a significant role?

Ick.
   3. Foster Posted: December 29, 2006 at 11:32 PM (#2271094)
One of the surprises in my shiny Baseball Forecaster is how much Shandler likes Ian Snell.

2007 projection:

15-10, 3.99 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 203 IP, 69 BB, 187 K, 24 HR.
   4. pyrite Posted: December 30, 2006 at 12:10 AM (#2271110)
Yikes, that's ugly. Can someone figure out how many projected runs those projections work out to? I doubt that's even close to 700.

I can't believe we're going to pay Shawn Chacon ~$4M for that projected 5.50 ERA when Shane Youman, Marty Mcleary, or Victor Santos could be replacement-level for the minimum.

Also, Brent Lillibridge's progress has made that Jack Wilson contract extension look silly. Before the extension, Wilson would've been a FA after 2007. Now he's making ~$7M / year through 2009. Lillibridge should be ready by 2008. I imagine Wilson will get shopped next winter.
   5. Torn_cuff (Special Ability Extra) Posted: December 30, 2006 at 12:11 AM (#2271112)
Ick ick ick ick ick ick ick ick ick.

That's, what, four players I'd want on my team next year, only two -- maybe three -- of whom I'd feel comfortable letting play a significant role?

Ick.



Tracy: Well, we committed 24 errors, and their pitcher threw a no hitter against us, but there is some good news! Two of our runners almost managed to get to first base, and we did hit seventeen foul balls!
Littlefield: That's the spirit! Cokes and hot dogs on me!
   6. Jesse Barfield's Right Arm Posted: December 30, 2006 at 12:25 AM (#2271118)
Eldred: 14 HR, 11 BB...that's hard to do.

It must be scary when the top projected OPS for a 1B comes in at #20, a few spots below Jose Castillo.
   7. ColonelTom Posted: December 30, 2006 at 01:01 AM (#2271140)
Only six Pirates hitters project to beat the league average OBP (.334) from last season. I suspect if you took out the pitcher PAs from that league average, only Jason Bay would beat it. Yikes.
   8. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 30, 2006 at 01:14 AM (#2271147)
Only six Pirates hitters project to beat the league average OBP (.334) from last season. I suspect if you took out the pitcher PAs from that league average, only Jason Bay would beat it. Yikes.

If you go to, for example, Jason Bay's BB-Ref page, the LgOBP it shows is .343, which would include park effects for PNC and, I think, remove pitcher hitting. Using .343, I think that gives you 2 Pirates above league-average, Bay and Sanchez (.348). LgSLG shows up as .442, and LgOPS is .785, so the Pirates look to have 2 guys with projected OPS+ > 100, although the NL had a 4.49 ERA last year, so that probably overstates how bad the Pirates' offense is (although not by much).
   9. A Day In the Park Posted: December 30, 2006 at 01:46 AM (#2271165)
According to these projections, the Pirates staff won't be that bad:

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Zach Duke
*                24   3.92  14  12  33  33   216.0  232   94  18   59  127 
Tom Gorzelanny
*           24   4.06   9   8  27  27   153.0  150   69  14   58  110 
Ian Snell                 25   4.53  10  11  31  28   169.0  171   85  25   62  140 
Paul Maholm
*              25   4.63   8   9  30  30   177.0  188   91  19   75  115 
Shawn Chacon              29   5.50   5   9  29  18   108.0  116   66  16   57   60 


Their number four starter has a 4.63 ERA? Isn't that great according to that article posted before this one that analyzed rotations?

BTW, just because Zips projects this Pirates rotation to be so good leads to a little skepticism for me about the system. I always read these projections Dan, and very much like them...but do you agree that the Pirates rotation will be this good?

I know I sure don't.
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: December 30, 2006 at 01:54 AM (#2271169)
pittsburg was middle of the pack in runs allowed last year, don't see this as any better than that.
   11. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 30, 2006 at 02:21 AM (#2271183)
Those aren't particularly good when you consider that they're park-adjusted and it's the NL. Snell and Maholm are below 100 ERA+. They're better than the Mets, though.
   12. Too Much Coffee Man Posted: December 30, 2006 at 02:29 AM (#2271185)
I like Paulino to top his projection; maybe a .270 average, but more walks and 12-15 HRs.
   13. Quinton McCracken's BFF Posted: December 30, 2006 at 03:07 AM (#2271198)
I fully expect Jason Bay to break out. I mean, REALLY bust out, hit something close to 38 bombs. I base this on gut feeling.
   14. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: December 30, 2006 at 03:17 AM (#2271202)
Is there any way this could be re-posted with the same Jason Bay projection and the Optimistic (15%) line for every other hitter? It might be nice to see if an above-average lineup could be constructed and maybe give a few fans a little bit of hope.
   15. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 30, 2006 at 03:19 AM (#2271203)
Yeah, the Pirates' pitching wouldn't make me physically ill, if I were a Pirates fan. It's the hitting. What's that team going to score? 600, 650 runs? With a ceiling of like, maybe, 725 -- which still would have placed next-to-last in the league in 2006?

Ick.
   16. Hurdle's Heroes (SuperBaes) Posted: December 30, 2006 at 03:26 AM (#2271206)
Tracy: Well, we committed 24 errors, and their pitcher threw a no hitter against us, but there is some good news! Two of our runners almost managed to get to first base, and we did hit seventeen foul balls!
Littlefield: That's the spirit! Cokes and hot dogs on me!

[Dressed in tuxedos, every team member, except Chris Duffy, stands behind Home Plate and looks at us]
Pirates: Hello. Do you know us?
[Everybody, except Zach Duke, puts on their caps]
Pirates: We're a Major League Baseball team.
Jack Wilson: But since we haven't <s>won a pennant in over 30 years</s> had a winning season in 15 years, nobody recognizes us - not even in our own home town.
Mike Gonzalez: That's why we carry the American Express card.
Freddy Sanchez: No matter how far out of first we are, it's cool. You know, it keeps us from getting shut out at our favorite hotels and restaurant-type places.
Jason Bay: [pointing to us] So if you're looking for some Big-League clout, apply for that little green home-run hitter.
Ian Snell: Look what it's done for US. People still DON'T recognize us but...
[Snell snaps his fingers]
Dave Littlefield: We're contenders now.
[Also dressed in a tuxedo, Duffy slides into Home Plate and holds up a green credit card]
Chris Duffy: The American Express card: Don't steal home without it.
   17. pyrite Posted: December 30, 2006 at 03:41 AM (#2271214)
Here's how bad the offense is: Andy Green, a utility infielder with a career 535 OPS in the majors, who had to go to Japan to find a place to start, is projected by ZIPS to hit 277/346/438 in '07.

That would make him the Pirates fourth best hitter. Ouch.
   18. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 30, 2006 at 03:42 AM (#2271215)
Groundskeepers (in Mandarin): They're still shitty.
   19. karkface killah Posted: December 30, 2006 at 03:48 AM (#2271217)
Ouch.
   20. Filter Posted: December 30, 2006 at 03:53 AM (#2271220)
How about a projection on Yuslan Hererra, or is he too much of an unknown?
   21. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 30, 2006 at 04:41 AM (#2271238)
"I fully expect Jason Bay to break out. I mean, REALLY bust out, hit something close to 38 bombs. "

What made you choose 38?
   22. m...... Posted: December 30, 2006 at 04:42 AM (#2271239)
That's a little unfair to be so harsh on the Bucs' offense. It's only December; per their typical offseason strategy they haven't loaded up on any of their middle-aged firepower to the usual one year contracts. As far as I can tell, Doug Mientkiewicz, Shannon Stewart, and Michael Tucker are all as yet unsigned.
   23. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 30, 2006 at 04:50 AM (#2271244)
As far as I can tell, Doug Mientkiewicz, Shannon Stewart, and Michael Tucker are all as yet unsigned.

Superstars all. I give you the Pirates, your 2007 NL champions.
   24. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: December 30, 2006 at 05:48 AM (#2271269)
Here's some more praise: the Pirates have 1 of the top 3 LF/Closer combos in the majors, at least until they predictably trade one of them away. Bay/Gonzalez is in the elite company of Matsui/Rivera and Holliday/Fuentes as far as I'm concerned. I'd definitely put them ahead of Burrell/Gordon and Ibanez/Putz. There really aren't as many good tandems as you might think. Rounding out the top 10, I think I'd go with Alou/Wagner, Reed Johnson/Ryan, Manny/[bottom 5 closer], [.730 OPS guy]/Nathan, and Crawford/McClung. If I thought Bonds could play a reasonably full season and Armando Benitez wasn't about to fall off a cliff performance-wise, the Giants could probably crack this list, too. Hopefully a couple have slipped my mind, but if so, I'm sure they'd be somewhere near the bottom and not in the coveted top 3 like the Pirates. Congratulations, Pittsburgh!
   25. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 30, 2006 at 05:59 AM (#2271270)
Manny/[bottom 5 closer]

Are you forgetting The Butterfly? I think this is tops, baby! And also clearly predictive of victories.
   26. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 30, 2006 at 07:12 AM (#2271295)
BTW, just because Zips projects this Pirates rotation to be so good leads to a little skepticism for me about the system. I always read these projections Dan, and very much like them...but do you agree that the Pirates rotation will be this good?


Remember, these are mean projections! Some of these guys will be injured or some other bad thing and the downside for decent pitchers tends to be greater than the upside.

The projected ERA+s for the top 4 plus Chacon are:

Duke - 111
Gorzelanny - 108
Snell - 96
Maholm - 94
Chacon - 79

That's hardly some world-beating rotation because that's not the rotation that they'll get in the real world. Give a little realistic luck both ways and you get something like this

Duke - 118
Gorzelanny - 96 (elbow) / Wasdin or someone - 88
Snell - 100
Maholm - Out for Season (shoulder) / Burnett 71 / van Benschoten - 74
Chadon - 86 traded in June
   27. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 30, 2006 at 07:21 AM (#2271299)
John Wasdin! Yay!

I haven't heard his name in a while. I once wrote a somewhat profane song called "John Wasdin Blues". I've been debating with myself whether I ought to send him a tape.
   28. MM1f Posted: December 30, 2006 at 08:31 AM (#2271315)
Is there a particular reason Zach Duke does not put his hat on in the above mock commercial?
   29. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: December 30, 2006 at 09:52 AM (#2271330)
Is there a particular reason Zach Duke does not put his hat on in the above mock commercial?

I'm gonna say it's because he's their Rick Vaughn type. I don't know why Freddy Sanchez got his line, but that's more a stylistic choice than anything. I could definitely see Chris Duffy as the team rebel, but then again, I agree that Duffy would pull off the part of Willie Mays Hayes better than McLouth or whoever else might audition for the role. All in all, it gets a thumbs up from me.
   30. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: December 30, 2006 at 08:58 PM (#2271423)
So last year Shawn Chacon was coming off a season where after being traded from his previous team he went 7-3, 2.85 for the division winning New York Yankees, and he gave up just two runs in six and a third in his playoff start.

This year Shawn Chacon is coming off a season where after being traded from his previous team he went 2-3, 5.48 and gave up five runs in five and a third in his last start of the year, a regular season game in September.

Talk about reversal of fortune!
   31. Quinton McCracken's BFF Posted: December 30, 2006 at 09:28 PM (#2271432)
"I fully expect Jason Bay to break out. I mean, REALLY bust out, hit something close to 38 bombs. "

What made you choose 38?


Good ole fashioned gut feeling. I guess I still have psychological remnants of Brian Giles as a Pirate.
   32. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: December 30, 2006 at 11:35 PM (#2271481)
Is Emeigh still predicting a collapse from Bay?
   33. JolietJake Posted: December 31, 2006 at 12:20 AM (#2271503)
Well, if our projected lineup of Duffy, Wilson, Sanchez, Bay, Nady, Bautista, Paulino, and Castillo do exactly as Dan's median line suggest, the Pirates will score 607 runs if they all got 575 ABs.

Fortunately, the r-value for Dan's 2006 projections and the actual result was only .524 (for those eight players) on the negative side anyway so I think ZIPS tends to see PNC a bit rougher than it really is. That r-.524 was ZIPS best year in the last 4 for our starting eight position players so it might be starting to pick up the players better now that they are getting some ABs under their belts since they are all pretty youthful.

As for the pitching, as everyone knows none of the projection systems do very good with pitching. But as Dan mentioned earlier we have at least two of the main five starters with barking elbows that could quickly turn 2007 into a year that makes the last time Dick Littlefield w/Pirates had the lowest ERA a wonderful year in comparison.

I'm surprised ZIPS didn't pick up JVB better despite its limitations as well as picking up a potential huge breakout year for McLouth which I think is due if he gets consistent ABs. We'll see.
   34. Gaelan Posted: December 31, 2006 at 01:02 AM (#2271515)
Their number four starter has a 4.63 ERA? Isn't that great according to that article posted before this one that analyzed rotations?


This is why misleading and incorrect articles need to be refuted. Misinformation spreads like a virus.
   35. Mister High Standards Posted: December 31, 2006 at 01:28 AM (#2271522)
The article (Jaffes) was neither incorrect nor misleading. A reasonable objection can be made to how he determined the starters "slots", however, its not fatal as the overarching point remains that average team has many starts per season made by pitchers whose era's are far higher than many primates think.

However, Gaelan if you have a problem with the study I'm sure you can conduct your own research and Dan S. will be happy to publish it. Yet I don't expect that to happen as you seem to be far more interested in quibbling with minor points than contributing to the body of knowledge.


you does sure right purty tho.
   36. MSI Posted: December 31, 2006 at 06:34 AM (#2271631)
Michael Keaton is right they should get better management in that city.
   37. Hurdle's Heroes (SuperBaes) Posted: December 31, 2006 at 08:39 PM (#2271792)
Is there a particular reason Zach Duke does not put his hat on in the above mock commercial?

Have you ever seen Zach Duke wearing a hat? He looks like a white Pokey Reese (another former Pirate). That is not a good thing.

Really, I equated Duke as their best young pitcher, so I put him in Vaughn's spot. Duffy's not really the team rebel, he's more likely the fastest and leadoff hitter, which is why he's in Hayes' spot.
   38. 1k5v3L Posted: December 31, 2006 at 08:47 PM (#2271795)
So last year Shawn Chacon was coming off a season where after being traded from his previous team he went 7-3, 2.85 for the division winning New York Yankees, and he gave up just two runs in six and a third in his playoff start.

This year Shawn Chacon is coming off a season where after being traded from his previous team he went 2-3, 5.48 and gave up five runs in five and a third in his last start of the year, a regular season game in September.

Talk about reversal of fortune!


I still recall all the arguments made by Yankee fans on this site as to why Shawn Chacon was for real. They very much sounded like all the arguments made by Yankee fans as to why Aaron Small was for real.

Sadly, in a couple of years, they may be lumped in with all the arguments by Yankee fans as to why Wang is for real.
   39. 1k5v3L Posted: December 31, 2006 at 08:53 PM (#2271798)
Looking at the Pirates lineup, they could really use a left handed 1bman with some pop. Chad Tracy makes a lot of sense to them, but I don't think the Pirates and Dbacks ever got off the ground on those discussions. The Pirates do seem to have a bit of logjam at 3b (Sanchez and Bautista) and they have some left handed pitchers (Grabow, Marte, Gonzalez) that could appeal to AZ. I haven't heard anything about trade talks between the two teams, however. So it most likely ain't happenin'
   40. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 31, 2006 at 11:12 PM (#2271856)
Wow, that offense is grim. I expected it to be bad, but I had a few hopes that we might see some positive growth by Bautista, or something along those lines.

If you go right down the list, the #4, #6, #7, and #10 guys are projected as backups, the #5 has retired, and the #8 and #9 are slated to be organizational filler at AAA.
   41. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 31, 2006 at 11:51 PM (#2271866)
Anytime Xavier Nady is #2 on the ZIPS list, you know you're in trouble offensively.

And #5 is a guy who decided it was time to hang it up.
   42. Russ Posted: January 01, 2007 at 07:07 PM (#2272031)
If you go right down the list, the #4, #6, #7, and #10 guys are projected as backups, the #5 has retired, and the #8 and #9 are slated to be organizational filler at AAA.


Is this the part where we start putting up projections of the guys that the Pirates let go for free (Shelton, Chris Young the pitcher)?

And can we get a Chad Hermansen projection? I'm pretty sure he'd be in the top 8 here... he was .319/.400/.517 at Sioux Falls last year and he's only 29.

His last AAA numbers were in Syracuse, 240/307/438 in sporadic playing time (152 PA).
   43. Russ Posted: January 03, 2007 at 06:56 PM (#2273109)
Hey Szymborski, where's my Hermansen projection? Doesn't your fancy toy handle the Indy leagues (or Mexico)?

:-)
   44. Russ Posted: January 03, 2007 at 08:31 PM (#2273205)

If I had any hair, I'd probably rip it out trying to make good indy or Mexico translations. Regular ol' regimented minors is hard enough!


Fair enough. :-)

I would like to publicly thank Dan for allowing me to spend the Xmas holidays in Pittsburgh with my family without having posted these putrid projections that would have spoiled our holiday meal.
   45. HowardMegdal Posted: January 03, 2007 at 08:33 PM (#2273209)
Dan, I'm so tired of the obscure limitations of your comprehensive, free work.
   46. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 03, 2007 at 11:43 PM (#2273447)
Wait, you don't have any hair?

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