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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, December 31, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Brian Giles*        rf 36 .279 .386 .423 144 534 81 149 29 3 14 73 92 62 7 3
Adrian Gonzalez*      1b 25 .289 .350 .475 147 530 77 153 31 1 22 79 48 100 0 1
Josh Bard#          c   29 .281 .356 .424 85 224 25 63 11 0 7 29 25 71 1 0
Paul McAnulty*        3b 26 .280 .347 .435 145 483 57 135 29 2 14 61 50 94 2 2
Russell Branyan*      3b 31 .244 .340 .454 109 324 43 79 15 1 17 47 44 171 4 2
Kevin Kouzmanoff       3b 25 .279 .334 .452 87 301 39 84 17 1 11 41 22 67 3 2
Marcus Giles         2b 29 .276 .356 .406 137 525 84 145 31 2 11 54 61 102 11 4
Jack Cust*          lf 28 .232 .366 .403 120 380 58 88 17 0 16 49 79 130 0 2
Mike Cameron         cf 34 .251 .334 .446 126 482 71 121 27 5 19 61 56 128 19 6
Termel Sledge*        lf 30 .260 .339 .436 121 365 38 95 16 3 14 51 44 79 2 2
Khalil Greene         ss 27 .253 .324 .418 128 447 58 113 28 2 14 61 42 92 4 1
Todd Walker*        2b 34 .270 .344 .381 113 367 43 99 16 2 7 36 41 39 0 1
Royce Huffman         1b 30 .255 .340 .378 114 384 49 98 24 1 7 40 45 80 3 2
Brian Myrow*        3b 30 .234 .325 .380 110 308 43 72 17 2 8 35 40 89 4 2
Eric Valent*        rf 30 .232 .330 .373 95 241 30 56 11 1 7 23 34 65 0 1
Adam Shabala*        cf 29 .252 .318 .375 92 301 39 76 15 2 6 31 28 72 6 4
Bobby Hill#          2b 29 .241 .338 .311 110 286 37 69 14 0 2 24 35 68 0 1
Steve Smitherman       rf 28 .225 .291 .382 112 377 34 85 26 0 11 44 31 122 3 1
Chase Headley#        3b 23 .242 .313 .343 127 446 48 108 24 0 7 41 45 110 2 3
Craig Stansberry       2b 25 .222 .296 .374 137 465 58 103 27 4 12 48 46 102 12 6
Rob Bowen#          c   26 .220 .306 .339 95 227 30 50 9 0 6 20 27 63 1 1
Geoff Blum#          3b 34 .233 .295 .344 91 253 27 59 14 1 4 25 20 42 0 1
Manny Alexander       ss 36 .234 .288 .330 102 364 48 85 16 2 5 30 26 60 8 4
Luis Cruz           ss 23 .220 .259 .337 144 522 47 115 30 2 9 48 27 68 4 3
Ricky Gutierrez       ss 37 .177 .278 .210 20 62   7 11 2 0 0   4   5 13 1 0

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Adrian Gonzalez
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .311 .375 .537 159 575 96 179 39 2 29 106 57 97 0 1
Mean         .289 .350 .475 147 530 77 153 31 1 22 79 48 100 0 1
Pessimistic (15%) .265 .321 .420 128 460 57 122 24 1 15 55 37 96 0 1

Top Comps: Paul Konerko, Jason Thompson

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Trevor Hoffman         39   2.38   3   1 55   0   53.0   43   14   4   10   45
Scott Linebrink       30   3.04   7   3 70   0   74.0   62   25   8   23   69
Cla Meredith         24   3.06   7   3 74   0   94.0   86   32   7   20   64
Jake Peavy           26   3.23 15   7 30 30   195.0 169   70 21   54 191
Scott Strickland       31   3.63   4   2 43   0   57.0   54   23   7   16   45
Scott Cassidy         31   3.71   8   5 57   1   80.0   72   33 11   30   77
Chris Young           28   3.82 10   7 30 30   165.0 145   70 25   59 145
Greg Maddux           41   3.90 15 11 33 33   203.0 213   88 24   38 118
Mike Adams           29   4.05   3   2 44   1   60.0   59   27   7   22   45
Doug Brocail         40   4.06   3   2 40   1   51.0   49   23   3   22   42
Heath Bell           29   4.08   3   2 47   0   64.0   58   29   8   21   60
Clay Hensley         27   4.14   9   9 34 24   161.0 154   74 18   65 104
Cesar Carrillo         23   4.21   3   3 12 12   62.0   61   29   8   22   47
Andrew Brown         26   4.25   4   4 49   0   72.0   63   34   9   35   62
Frank Brooks*        28   4.38   4   4 50   3   74.0   68   36 10   30   62
Kevin Cameron         27   4.44   4   5 42   0   75.0   71   37   9   36   54
Leonel Rosales         26   4.57   6   7 57   0   65.0   63   33   9   27   52
Chan Ho Park         34   4.61   6   8 22 21   127.0 126   65 16   55   92
Mike Thompson         26   4.65   7   8 29 25   151.0 166   78 20   46   68
Rudy Seanez           38   4.69   3   3 43   0   48.0   44   25   7   26   52
Steve Watkins         28   4.70   5   7 26 16   111.0 114   58 16   44   67
Brian Sweeney         33   4.73   5   6 29 16   118.0 126   62 20   35   70
Tim Stauffer         24   4.74   6 10 26 25   152.0 164   80 19   47   97
David Wells*          44   4.76   6   8 20 20   123.0 140   65 22   21   66
Shawn Estes*          34   4.81   8 10 26 26   159.0 159   85 20   76   96
Ryan Ketchner*        25   4.92   5   8 20 20   108.0 112   59 14   44   77
Sean Thompson*        24   4.93   7   9 28 28   166.0 173   91 25   68 114
Adrian Burnside*      30   4.94   3   4 33   5   51.0   50   28   8   26   39
Justin Hampson*        27   4.98   6   9 29 20   141.0 145   78 23   64   92
Royce Ring*          26   5.09   2   3 47   0   53.0   53   30   9   26   35
Dewon Brazelton       27   5.10   6 10 27 21   127.0 133   72 17   58   75
Jared Wells           25   5.17   7 11 25 25   148.0 159   85 19   70   84
Aquilino Lopez         32   5.24   3   5 46   0   67.0   67   39 15   26   63
Bubba Nelson         25   5.48   4   7 39   8   87.0   89   53 15   46   61
Erick Burke*          29   5.64   2   4 44   0   67.0   66   42 10   43   53
Roger Deago*          38   6.38   4   9 24 15   96.0 107   68 17   57   49

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Chris Young
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.03 13   6 33 33 187 150   63 23   58 176  
Mean           3.82 10   7 30 30 165 145   70 25   59 145
Pessimistic (15%)  4.50   7   8 25 25 134 126   67 23   53 114

Top Comps:  Sid Fernandez, Bobby Bolin

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 31, 2006 at 04:18 PM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Frisco Cali Posted: December 31, 2006 at 04:40 PM (#2271721)
McAnulty at 3B could be very interesting
   2. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 31, 2006 at 05:01 PM (#2271725)
Hoffman's IP would be a career low, for a full season.
   3. valuearbitrageur Posted: December 31, 2006 at 05:39 PM (#2271738)
What a pickup Gonzalez looks to be...
   4. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: December 31, 2006 at 05:48 PM (#2271743)
The Pads would have to be ecstatic if Bard can continue to hit like that in Petco.
   5. andrewberg Posted: December 31, 2006 at 05:57 PM (#2271746)
Wow. This set of projections has almost no downside. A legit 5th starter might be a bit of an uphill battle, but they can probably scrounge the scrap-heap for a pumpkin who gives up too many flyballs and crystalize him for a couple of months in their park and with a solid defense. I think this looks like a 92 win team with Peavy, Young, and Maddux all looking above average (even in that park), squeezing some OBP juice out of the Giles brothers, anything less than a total collapse by Cameron, Sledge, Branyan, and Bard, and the continued Derek Lee-ification of Adrian Gonzalez. As a fan-from-afar of Kevin Towers, color me impressed and excited.
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 31, 2006 at 06:31 PM (#2271756)
ZiPS loved the Padres so much that it couldn't find any nice thoughts for the next two teams, the Giants and Mariners.
   7. 1k5v3L Posted: December 31, 2006 at 06:56 PM (#2271765)
Looking at those left handed hitters, it's easy to see why Josh Byrnes has made it a point to acquire left handed starting pitchers this year. If Eveland beats out the crowd for the 5th spot, AZ may have three solid lefties in the rotation.

ZiPS loved the Padres so much that it couldn't find any nice thoughts for the next two teams, the Giants and Mariners.


What, Barry Zito and Horatio Ramirez don't make them WS contenders?
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 31, 2006 at 07:19 PM (#2271770)
What, Barry Zito and Horatio Ramirez don't make them WS contenders?

Put it this way - Ray Durham at 271/348/452 has the second highest projected RC/27 on the team. Of the 37 Giant batters I've projected, 18 of them have OBPs below .300.

As for the Mariners, here's the current most likely rotation and their projected ERA+s:

King Felix: 115
Washburn: 96
Batista: 93
Ramirez: 83
Baek: 71 or Woods: 90 or White: 79
   9. Posada Posse Posted: December 31, 2006 at 07:19 PM (#2271771)
Was Chris Young's big increase in HR's allowed/9 last season a fluke? I find it weird; you would expect that the rate would have gone down since he moved from the Arlington bandbox to Petco. He actually was fine pitching on the road in '06 (10 HR's in 93.3 innings), but dreadful at home (18 HR's in 86 innings). I would bet the over on him, assuming that the HR/9 will be lower than ZiPS' projection for '07.

I'm a long-time lurker, first-time poster. I wanted to thank Dan for these great projections, they're always insightful.
   10. Posada Posse Posted: December 31, 2006 at 07:20 PM (#2271772)
Was Chris Young's big increase in HR's allowed/9 last season a fluke? I find it weird; you would expect that the rate would have gone down since he moved from the Arlington bandbox to Petco. He actually was fine pitching on the road in '06 (10 HR's in 93.3 innings), but dreadful at home (18 HR's in 86 innings). I would bet the over on him, assuming that the HR/9 will be lower than ZiPS' projection for '07.

I'm a long-time lurker, first-time poster. I wanted to thank Dan for these great projections, they're always insightful.
   11. 1k5v3L Posted: December 31, 2006 at 07:28 PM (#2271775)
Of the 37 Giant batters I've projected, 18 of them have OBPs below .300.


Brain-dead Giants Swinging at Slop?

The Padres pitching looks solid, but I have a sneaky suspicion that AZ's team ERA+ next year will be just as good as San Diego's. Maybe a nudge better.
   12. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: December 31, 2006 at 07:39 PM (#2271778)
I'm a long-time lurker, first-time poster.

I hate to say it, but welcome to BTF with a double post!
   13. Walt Davis Posted: December 31, 2006 at 08:12 PM (#2271784)
Pretty good looking starting lineup but not a lot of depth there. Assuming Kouzmanoff is the starter at 3B and that McAnulty can't cover SS, only one of McAnulty, Branyan, and Cust (very unlikely) make the team. Based on that roster, the 4th OF appears to be Eric Valent with Shabala as 5th OF; there is no backup MI; Bowen remains the backup C (decent enough I suppose). A couple injuries on offense (and it's not a particularly young team) and the Padres will be hurting. As they stand now of course, plenty of time to sign some non-embarassing backups.

And unless Dan is being stingy, there aren't a lot of promising hitting prospects knocking on the door. I mean when your ZIPS roster includes Manny Alexander and Ricky Gutierrez and only 2 hitters under 25, organizational depth just might be a problem.

Shawn Estes will only be 34? Who knew?
   14. 1k5v3L Posted: December 31, 2006 at 08:29 PM (#2271788)
Padres top 10 prospects, per Goldstein

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5780

Excellent Prospects
None
Very Good Prospects
1. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3b
2. Cesar Carillo, rhp
Good Prospects
3. Cedric Hunter, cf
4. Matt Antonelli, 3b
Average Prospects
5. Nick Hundley, c
6. Chase Headley, 3b
7. Paul McAnulty, 1b/3b/of
8. Will Venable, lf
9. Kyler Burke, rf
10. Chad Huffman, lf

Kouz and McAnulty should help in 07, maybe Carrillo as well. The rest are ways off.

The Padres may lose Cameron next year, and I don't see an internal replacement. Also, I'm not sold on their LF situation long term (or short term) either.

Also, aside from Carrillo, they really don't have an impact pitcher in the system.
   15. Clint Posted: December 31, 2006 at 09:05 PM (#2271801)
Dan, I think you're missing Jose Cruz, Jr.
   16. 1k5v3L Posted: December 31, 2006 at 09:12 PM (#2271806)
Dan, I think you're missing Jose Cruz, Jr.


No one has missed Jose Cruz Jr. since he was traded away by the Blue Jays.
   17. bibigon Posted: December 31, 2006 at 09:42 PM (#2271819)
Was Chris Young's big increase in HR's allowed/9 last season a fluke? I find it weird; you would expect that the rate would have gone down since he moved from the Arlington bandbox to Petco. He actually was fine pitching on the road in '06 (10 HR's in 93.3 innings), but dreadful at home (18 HR's in 86 innings). I would bet the over on him, assuming that the HR/9 will be lower than ZiPS' projection for '07.


Young had a flukishly low HR rate in Arlington - he allowed HRs on only 7.8% of flyballs, which is lower than is probably sustainable for him. This year, that jumped to 13.2% and he started allowing more flyballs in the first place. If I had to guess, his ZiPS projection is a pretty good guess as to his HR rate next year.
   18. Darren Posted: December 31, 2006 at 10:10 PM (#2271823)
That Mirabelli trade's looking good. Argh!
   19. Darren Posted: December 31, 2006 at 10:11 PM (#2271824)
Strickland's also looking like quite a bargain.
   20. kwarren Posted: December 31, 2006 at 11:17 PM (#2271857)
Was Chris Young's big increase in HR's allowed/9 last season a fluke? I find it weird; you would expect that the rate would have gone down since he moved from the Arlington bandbox to Petco. He actually was fine pitching on the road in '06 (10 HR's in 93.3 innings), but dreadful at home (18 HR's in 86 innings).

Don't be fooled by Young's 3.46 ERA last season. His BABIP was a rather unbelievalble .240. His xERA in 2006 of 3.99 was actually worse that the 3.93 he posted in 2005. As HQ has noted, "he could pitch better in 2007 with a worse ERA".
   21. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 31, 2006 at 11:49 PM (#2271865)
I would love to see Russ Branyan make a run for 200 Ks.
   22. Flynn Posted: January 01, 2007 at 12:20 AM (#2271870)

Put it this way - Ray Durham at 271/348/452 has the second highest projected RC/27 on the team. Of the 37 Giant batters I've projected, 18 of them have OBPs below .300.


Wow. I was going to post that the Zito signing gives a Giants a chance because the Padres have no offense and the Dodgers are giving AB's to Juan Pierre as well as a somewhat brittle top half of the rotation, but I guess the Giants offense won't be any better and in fact much worse. They probably still have a shot, but not as good as I thought.
   23. 1k5v3L Posted: January 01, 2007 at 12:25 AM (#2271872)
You know, Flynn, the Dbacks are still in the NL West...
   24. Walt Davis Posted: January 01, 2007 at 01:35 AM (#2271881)
You know, Flynn, the Dbacks are still in the NL West...

Could be worse Levski, you could be a Rockies fan.

I'm jumping on the Rockies 07 bandwagon right now just to be contrary. Sheesh, that team gets less BTF time than the Pirates or the Royals.

Now I need to go to b-r to see who's actually on the Rockies these days. :-)
   25. Flynn Posted: January 01, 2007 at 01:40 AM (#2271883)
You know, Flynn, the Dbacks are still in the NL West...

I don't bother with teams that still want Randy Johnson's corpse.
   26. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 01, 2007 at 01:42 AM (#2271886)
That Mirabelli trade's looking good. Argh!

Yup! It was so important to get Wake's personal catcher back!

No projection for Mark Bellhorn? He is sitll on the Pads, right?
   27. 1k5v3L Posted: January 01, 2007 at 01:46 AM (#2271888)
I'd take any corpse that PECOTAs at 3.52 ERA next year...

RJ most likely won't be ready for the season's opener, and might miss the first month recovering from the back surgery. Still, if you can get 175 IP with 3.52 ERA from him, you gotta feel good about AZ's chances in the NL west. Zito or Lasagna notwithstanding.

Walt, the Rockies have a nice young team. They should just eat enough cash and trade Helton. Which they won't. If the humidor holds up, they could have a good season.
   28. Geoff Young Posted: January 01, 2007 at 03:31 AM (#2271907)
A few random comments:

--Brazelton is with KC.
--Hensley projection seems a bit pessimistic.
--The idea of McAnulty at SS is hilarious. Thanks.
--The backup outfielders are Branyan and Cruz. I haven't heard Valent's name mentioned in conjunction with anything associated with the team.
--There are two backup MI. Walker will back up Giles at 2B, and Blum, as he has the past two seasons, will back up Greene at SS.

As always, Dan, thanks for your efforts with these projections. Good stuff.
   29. RobertMachemer Posted: January 01, 2007 at 03:41 AM (#2271911)
They should just eat enough cash and trade Helton.
Meanwhile, all the Diamondbacks should do is trade enough prospects to acquire Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, and Johan Santana. Which they won't.
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 01, 2007 at 08:02 AM (#2271952)
Brazleton to KC is something I completely missed. This is actually the first I heard of it, super-drunk on New Years' Day. I did forget to put Cruz Jr. and Bellhorn on this roster, which I'll fix.

Walt did say "assuming" for McAnulty. I was probably generous to label him a 3B - he's not very good there and only some OKish numbers from Splits kept me from giving him a PR on the DMB disk.

Manny Alexander actually got into 22 games for the Padres this year. Predictably, he wasn't superstar material.

Valent is only listed here since it's the last MLB team he played for - he'll be a free agent on the final disk. I'm usually pretty conservative about stopping projecting players - as long as Valent gets an at-bat in 2007 in the US somewhere, he'll probably get a 2008 projection.
   31. Walt Davis Posted: January 01, 2007 at 08:34 AM (#2271956)
Hey now, I know squat about prospects, especially 26 year-old ones, and don't pretend otherwise. I didn't realize the Padres had resigned Walker. Granted I missed Blum (not used to seeing actual MLers at the bottom of ZIPS lists) but he is terrible and I'll stick with my statement that the Padres don't have a backup MI. Is Cruz Jr under contract?
   32. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 01, 2007 at 10:00 AM (#2271965)
I did forget to put Cruz Jr. and Bellhorn on this roster, which I'll fix.

I'm actually cringing in anticipation of what Bellhorn's projection will be. His last couple seasons have not been...good.
   33. Geoff Young Posted: January 01, 2007 at 07:30 PM (#2272037)
McAnulty is listed at 5'10", 220 lbs, but that's probably conservative. He's built like John Kruk. I wasn't picking on anyone -- it's just that if you've ever seen McAnulty, you'd realize what a hilarious visual it is to have him at shortstop. It'd be like sticking Mike Lavalliere there.

I don't know what to tell you about the Pads backup MI situation. Blum isn't very good but they've been using him at SS for the past few years.

Bellhorn was released October 12 -- about four months too late.
   34. 1k5v3L Posted: January 01, 2007 at 07:31 PM (#2272038)
Meanwhile, all the Diamondbacks should do is trade enough prospects to acquire Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, and Johan Santana. Which they won't.


I assume you mean that NOT trading Helton is an organizational decision, and not really related to his waning baseball abilities and huge contract. Because NOT trading Helton really doesn't make much sense from a baseball perspective.

Now, acquiring all three of Pujols, Carpenter and Santana does make baseball sense; but it's just crazy talk. I don't think any organization has the spare talent to obtain all three of them in trades and still put a competitive team on the field.
   35. Walt Davis Posted: January 01, 2007 at 08:47 PM (#2272076)
I dunno, that Helton contract probably doesn't look that bad in a universe where Zito and Soriano are making what they make. He did have a pretty blah year last year and a power drop the last two, but you're still talking about a guy just one year removed from a 144 OPS+ (career average 143). He's still "just" 33, so a bounce-back into the 130-140 range wouldn't be surprising at all (a quick Marcel puts him at 135, probably 130 with an age adjustment).

You'd think the Coors effect would make his b-r comps nonsensical, but they're not that bad actually. He's got a 143 career OPS+, his comps average a 147. Chuck Klein, Delgado, and Jim Bottomley are probably the best comps. Palmeiro's on his list and I wouldn't be shocked to see Helton have a similarly long, productive career (unless he's really gotten out of shape the last couple seasons). Anyway, other than Bottomley and Klein, those comps have (so far) gone on to pretty nice late careers (average 128 OPS+ even with those two dragging it way down).

Anyway, that list is chock full of current and future HOFers ... granted most better than Helton's been and/or with solid late careers added on. If he retired today, he'd fall short of the Allen/Mize/Greenberg "short career, high peak" threshhold which has been pretty borderline for HOF induction but unless he falls off the same cliff, he'll end up with a better case than Chuck Klein or Jim Bottomley (neither elected by the writers). He probably does need something like Palmeiro's late career to make the HOF which is unlikely, but I wouldn't be surprised if we put him in right next to Norm Cash in the HoVG.

I know Levski, you weren't questioning Helton's past production, just his future value per $. A fair concern. But I wouldn't write him off as a productive player yet and trading him now would probably do little more than save some money (but eating a lot of that contract) while opening a big hole in the lineup. I'm sure they'd like to move Hawpe to 1B, but he's no spring-chicken (28) or superstar, so it's not like they need to open a spot for Ryan Howard. From the Rox perspective, no harm in shopping Helton to see what gets offered (I'd dial up the Angels first), but I don't think it's at the point where they "have" to move him to save $$.

Plus I'm guessing that Helton is the main recipient of all the Rox fans' love that used to go to Walker, Castilla, Bichette, etc. Not sure a salary dump with little talent coming in return would go down well with the fans.
   36. 1k5v3L Posted: January 01, 2007 at 09:01 PM (#2272080)
I certainly wasn't talking about a salary dump for Helton. As you nicely point out, he's still a valuable player. In this market, he may even be worth his money. He may yet be a very productive player over the next half a decade.

My point really is that the Rockies should be able to get some nice young (and cheap) talent back for him if they took on a little bit of his salary. There were rumors that the Angels were offering three players (Kotchman, Mathis, someone else) if the Rockies took on a little bit of salary. I'm sure other teams would offer pretty decent packages for him if they knew the Rockies were open to throwing in some cash along.

The Rockies will begin to face arb decisions with many of their young players over the next couple of years that will cost them quite a bit. And they still need pitching. Could they parlay Helton into solid young players and save some cash to use it on Atkins ot Cook or Hawpe or Holliday? They should at least try
   37. Scott Kazmir's breaking balls Posted: January 02, 2007 at 12:15 AM (#2272161)
I noticed that there were no projections for 2B Josh Barfield. Is this because, with Marcus Giles on board and he has options left, that its back to AAA for him this year? To my knowledge, he's still with the Padres, right?
   38. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 02, 2007 at 12:18 AM (#2272163)
I noticed that there were no projections for 2B Josh Barfield. Is this because, with Marcus Giles on board and he has options left, that its back to AAA for him this year? To my knowledge, he's still with the Padres, right?

No, he was traded to Cleveland.
   39. Mister High Standards Posted: January 02, 2007 at 01:00 AM (#2272176)
come on Kev.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
   40. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 02, 2007 at 02:39 AM (#2272200)
That's a hell of a lot of innings to project for Meredith.

It's because he threw a ton of innings in 2006 - 96.2 total. Meredith threw even more in 2004 - 99.2 innings!
   41. G A Delgado Posted: January 04, 2007 at 01:41 AM (#2273536)
I'll take the over on Kouz.

Everybody else seems about right.
   42. G A Delgado Posted: January 08, 2007 at 09:22 PM (#2276435)
Dan, I'm still waiting for Jose Cruz' projection, thanks for everything as always it's great to compare them once the season is over.

So far the roster looks as follows.

Slated Starter / backup(s)

C Bard / Bowen
1b Gonzalez / Branyan / McAnulty
2b Giles / Walker
3b Kouzmanoff / Branyan
SS Greene / Blum
LF Sledge / McAnulty / Cruz
CF Cameron / Cruz
RF Giles / Cruz / McAnulty

Rotation

Peavy
Maddux
Young
Hensley
Wells? / Estes? / Park?

With a pretty solid bullpen. I'll go with 88-92 wins in that division.
   43. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: March 18, 2007 at 12:18 PM (#2313692)
BTW, Cust was outrighted to Portland - so he, in fact, won't make the roster (no surprise).

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