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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

2007 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Barry Bonds*        lf 42 .269 .464 .539 113 308 71 83 18 1 21 56 102 42 3 0
Ray Durham#          2b 35 .271 .348 .452 123 451 70 122 26 4 16 64 51 60 5 2
Ryan Klesko*        lf 36 .261 .364 .411 93 299 43 78 19 1 8 42 49 47 1 1
Rich Aurilia         ss 35 .280 .336 .445 110 389 47 109 23 1 13 58 33 53 1 0
Lance Niekro         1b 28 .278 .317 .474 106 327 41 91 18 2 14 53 19 46 0 1
Dave Roberts*        lf 35 .280 .350 .386 121 435 70 122 19 9 3 37 46 55 33 7
Todd Linden#        rf 27 .252 .335 .431 138 420 75 106 23 2 16 51 50 126 6 3
Mark Sweeney*        lf 37 .259 .349 .386 96 189 23 49 10 1 4 26 24 38 0 1
Randy Winn#          rf 33 .275 .337 .413 141 549 76 151 34 3 12 47 47 75 12 7
Jason Ellison         lf 29 .293 .344 .397 133 365 61 107 22 2 4 24 26 51 15 10
Todd Greene         c   36 .277 .315 .416 50 137 13 38 8 1 3 17   7 29 0 0
Eddy Martinez-Esteve   lf 23 .251 .324 .409 111 367 57 92 29 1 9 45 39 62 2 2
Bengie Molina         c   32 .281 .317 .411 103 370 37 104 15 0 11 48 19 37 1 1
Fred Lewis*          lf 26 .256 .337 .382 140 484 73 124 25 6 8 46 58 118 13 9
Kevin Frandsen       2b 24 .283 .336 .392 128 474 80 134 33 2 5 53 17 38 14 13
Omar Vizquel#        ss 40 .277 .340 .349 132 502 66 139 20 5 2 42 45 51 15 6
Pedro Feliz         3b 32 .251 .292 .410 144 534 66 134 28 3 17 74 31 94 1 2
Luis Figueroa#        2b 33 .273 .317 .365 116 406 51 111 23 1 4 40 25 28 3 4
Nate Schierholtz*      lf 23 .254 .295 .405 133 481 50 122 26 4 13 48 24 103 4 4
Justin Leone         3b 30 .228 .315 .365 96 337 39 77 14 1 10 40 39 90 2 2
Abraham Nunez#        rf 30 .237 .315 .367 96 316 43 75 15 1 8 43 35 68 3 3
Eliezer Alfonzo       c   28 .246 .290 .388 123 402 40 99 19 1 12 42 18 104 1 1
Eugenio Velez#        2b 25 .250 .286 .385 120 408 47 102 20 7 7 45 18 76 31 12
Dan Ortmeier#        cf 26 .237 .292 .369 126 431 54 102 20 2 11 44 32 96 13 8
Chad Santos*        1b 26 .228 .273 .380 115 413 38 94 22 1 13 56 24 124 1 1
Jose Flores         ss 34 .236 .308 .317 84 259 30 61 10 1 3 23 23 45 3 1
Travis Ishikawa*      1b 23 .217 .283 .361 121 382 42 83 18 2 11 40 34 119 0 1
Mike Matheny         c   36 .234 .283 .353 85 278 22 65 18 0 5 33 16 62 0 1
Guillermo Rodriguez     c   29 .219 .270 .377 73 215 23 47 11 1 7 23 13 44 1 1
Steve Finley*        cf 42 .227 .291 .335 114 397 49 90 17 4 6 38 35 58 5 2
Justin Knoedler       c   26 .240 .289 .345 107 342 40 82 20 2 4 29 23 87 3 3
William Bergolla       2b 24 .258 .292 .330 114 415 48 107 20 2 2 28 18 50 10 5
Jed Hansen           2b 34 .220 .289 .328 86 287 36 63 13 0 6 28 24 73 4 2
Todd Jennings         c   25 .234 .262 .301 119 419 42 98 16 0 4 36 12 70 2 2
Ivan Ochoa#          ss 24 .220 .287 .267 122 378 42 83 11 2 1 21 31 78 13 7
Marcus Sanders       ss 21 .209 .274 .268 90 321 50 67 11 1 2 18 28 71 26 7
Alex Requena#        cf 26 .222 .273 .259 99 370 48 82 12 1 0 16 24 92 24 12

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Pedro “BDC” Feliz
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .271 .317 .463 161 594 84 161 38 5 22 101 41 97 1 1
Mean         .251 .292 .410 144 534 66 134 28 3 17 74 31 94 1 2
Pessimistic (15%) .230 .265 .369 92 339 36 78 15 1 10 38 16 65 0 2

Top Comps: Gary Gaetti, Pinky Whitney
 
Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Armando Benitez       34   3.72   3   2 47   0   46.0   42   19   7   18   39
Matt Cain           22   4.01 13 10 33 32   193.0 167   86 24   87 174
Barry Zito*          29   4.01 14 11 34 34   216.0 196   96 25   96 165
Kevin Correia         26   4.07   2   2 53   0   73.0   70   33   8   29   54
Steve Kline*          34   4.08   3   3 67   0   53.0   50   24   5   25   35
Noah Lowry*          26   4.15 11   9 31 30   182.0 177   84 22   65 130
Vinnie Chulk         28   4.24   3   3 61   0   70.0   64   33   8   32   59
Matt Morris           32   4.31 12 12 31 31   192.0 198   92 23   55 114
Jack Taschner*        29   4.38   4   5 73   0   74.0   72   36 10   32   68
Jonathan Sanchez*      24   4.57   6   7 40 21   132.0 132   67 19   55 110
Brandon Villafuerte     31   4.66   3   3 42   0   56.0   59   29   6   23   37
Tim Worrell           39   4.70   2   3 45   0   44.0   49   23   7   14   39
Bill Sadler           25   4.72   6   6 57   0   80.0   76   42 10   45   69
Brian Wilson         25   4.75   4   4 51   0   55.0   55   29   4   33   42
Dan Giese           30   4.82   4   6 46   0   71.0   75   38 11   19   41
Brad Hennessey         27   4.90   7   9 33 25   156.0 163   85 21   68   83
Pat Misch*          25   5.01   7   9 29 28   178.0 199   99 30   52 104
Jamey Wright         32   5.08   7 11 31 24   156.0 166   88 21   70   86
Michael Tejera*        30   5.17   4   7 34 13   101.0 108   58 15   44   62
Scott Munter         27   5.18   3   4 56   0   66.0   73   38   5   35   25
Matt Kinney           30   5.22   6 12 32 23   157.0 168   91 23   65 121
Tim Lincecum         23   5.34   6 11 30 25   140.0 132   83 24   85 128
Pedro Liriano         26   5.47   4   7 31 16   107.0 115   65 18   52   68
Jeff Miller           27   5.59   3   5 43   0   58.0   61   36 12   27   44
Merkin Valdez         25   5.77   3   6 34 13   92.0 100   59 15   52   64
Osiris Matos         22   5.77   5 11 45 15   145.0 180   93 33   31   59
Erick Threets*        25   5.85   1   2 45   0   60.0   60   39   6   50   39
Brian Cooper         32   5.93   4   9 28 18   123.0 141   81 23   54   62
Matt Anderson         30   6.85   1   4 41   0   46.0   48   35   9   36   39

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Matt Cain
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.09 17   8 34 34 210 164   72 19   82 202
Mean           4.01 13 10 33 32 193 167   86 24   87 174
Pessimistic (15%)  5.02   8 11 28 27 156 147   87 25   81 135

Top Comps:  Pete Harnisch, John Smoltz

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 02, 2007 at 04:55 AM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. 8ball Posted: January 02, 2007 at 05:13 AM (#2272240)
Barry Zito projects to have the third best ERA among the Giants' starters in 2007?

Harsh.
   2. catomi01 Posted: January 02, 2007 at 05:14 AM (#2272241)
755 exactly...fun....
   3. Darren Posted: January 02, 2007 at 05:16 AM (#2272242)
That's a wide range on Cain. Guess that happens with young pitchers. Zito's not looking so hot here, but you don't sign him for his ZIPS projections, you sign him because you think he's uniquely qualified to beat them.
   4. Dr. Vaux Posted: January 02, 2007 at 05:17 AM (#2272243)
Kinda behind the 8ball, aren't we, catomi01?

Er... is this on?
   5. catomi01 Posted: January 02, 2007 at 05:18 AM (#2272244)
and matt anderson...got the chance to see him in person this year in the atlantic league...still throw ridiculously hard...
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 02, 2007 at 05:36 AM (#2272249)
Oops - for the second time, I posted Zito's projection that I did for someone who wanted to see his Yankee projection.
   7. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 02, 2007 at 05:36 AM (#2272250)
Barry Zito projects to have the third best ERA among the Giants' starters in 2007?

4th, unless you're expecting a trade of Morris, Cain or Lowry. Doesn't bode well for customer satisfaction.
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 02, 2007 at 05:39 AM (#2272251)
OK, fixed (the projection I had for the Zito entry was the correct one).
   9. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 02, 2007 at 05:51 AM (#2272253)
So he won't be run out of town now? That's good.
   10. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 02, 2007 at 05:52 AM (#2272254)
Also, interesting that Zito has a better W/L record with the Giants than the Yankees.
   11. pweber Posted: January 02, 2007 at 08:19 AM (#2272280)
How many left fielder/PH types does one organization need?
   12. Bhaakon Posted: January 02, 2007 at 08:37 AM (#2272281)
How many left fielder/PH types does one organization need?

Enough to cause a tear in space-time, hurtling the roster five years into the past, and making the Giants instant World Series favorites.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: January 02, 2007 at 08:58 AM (#2272283)
Enough to cause a tear in space-time, hurtling the roster five years into the past, and making the Giants instant World Series favorites.

With 17-year-old Cain, and 21-year-old Correia and Lowry heading the rotation? I've got my doubts. :-)

The Benitez-Kline-Worrell bullpen looks pretty good though. (I thought Kline was like 44 by now).

That might be fun Dan -- run the ZIPS for this roster for 2002. Bonds and Klesko would project better. Aurilia would be coming off his monster season, so he'd project nicely. But not only is this roster old, I'm not sure they were all that good 5 years ago.
   14. Dr. Vaux Posted: January 02, 2007 at 09:20 AM (#2272284)
And Morris was good five years ago, too. It wouldn't be that bad of a team five years ago. Jeff Fassero was already bad then, though.
   15. Bhaakon Posted: January 02, 2007 at 10:48 AM (#2272293)
With 17-year-old Cain, and 21-year-old Correia and Lowry heading the rotation? I've got my doubts. :-)

I hear the Giants are kicking the tires on both David Wells and Russ Ortiz.
   16. Runscreated Posted: January 02, 2007 at 03:28 PM (#2272315)
Durham and Bonds the only guys on this team with a 800+ OPS. Yikes!

I do like Kevin Correria's projection. I think he will end up with more IP as he will start at some point.

Lincecum's projection seems high.
   17. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 02, 2007 at 03:33 PM (#2272318)
Thanks for htese projections. I love 'em! And keep 'em coming--my Diamond Mind keeper draft is Saturday! I need to see how good Lind projects with the Blue Jays! And Adam Jones with the Mariners! (Gaelan, pretend you didn't read those last two sentences.)

As for the Giants, I'd bet a good number of the old timers out perform their projections as well as some of the young pitchers and the Giants are in it all year. It's not a very good team, but it's a good team. They could desperately use an infusion of young talent and, though all the rumors about Milledge have him going to Oakland, it would make sense for the Giants to see if they can swap an arm or two to get him for themselves. Or Elijah Dukes from Tampa Bay. What they don't need to do is trade any of their young pitching for any more ####### veterans.
   18. Runscreated Posted: January 02, 2007 at 03:57 PM (#2272331)
Dan,
Thanks again for all the work you do. Speaking of drafts, when do you send out the first build of a composite MLB Zips projections? My draft is a couple of months away, but I like to prepare a little at a time. I have had success using a hybrid of Zips and Shandler's Baseball Forecaster the last couple of years.
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 02, 2007 at 04:36 PM (#2272349)
ZiPS has Jones at 243/292/398. Remember, he's still really young. I still haven't touched Toronto or Washington, but I just did Lind and he's at 297/349/468.

I usually send out the first build sometime between MLK's birthday and the Super Bowl. Should be on the early side this year, maybe the 10th or so.
   20. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 02, 2007 at 06:12 PM (#2272402)
ZiPS has Jones at 243/292/398. Remember, he's still really young. I still haven't touched Toronto or Washington, but I just did Lind and he's at 297/349/468.

Thank you much. Of course, there's no way Jones wrestles playing time away from Willie Bloomquist anyway. How depressing must that be for young Mr. Jones.
   21. Steve Treder Posted: January 02, 2007 at 06:55 PM (#2272424)
It's not a very good team, but it's a good team.

I wouldn't go that far. I'd put it more like this: it's not a good team, but it isn't a very bad team.

They probably won't lose 95 games, as many naysayers are predicting. But everything would have to go just right to have them lose fewer than 80. Still, in this division they could find themselves in the playoff hunt. As a fan, of course I'll root for that outside chance.

But if the more likely scenario unfolds, that by mid-July it's clear they're out of it and the only thing left to care about in '07 is will-he-or-won't-he-get-to-756, I do hope Sabean plays seller in the trade market. Quite a few of these veterans might be attractive role players for a contending team, and they don't have problematic contracts for contenders: Vizquel, Durham, Roberts, Aurilia, Klesko. The Giants could conceivably snag a few of the prospects they so desperately lack in deadline deals.

Not the best scenario for a fan to look forward to, I'll grant you.
   22. Loren F. Posted: January 02, 2007 at 07:06 PM (#2272427)
A mid-season fire sale would look bad and more likely push the Giants toward 90 losses than toward 80. So, I have my doubts as to whether Sabean will do it, given his reluctance to blow it up and rebuild in the past few years.
   23. CrosbyBird Posted: January 02, 2007 at 07:16 PM (#2272434)
I would not be shocked if the Giants lose 95 games in 2007. Zito will help, but that team really has no offense other than Bonds and Ray Durham.

This would be especially likely if the Dodgers or Padres have a nice little stretch that puts the Giants completely out of the race; like Steve says, the Giants have a bunch of players that aren't terrible that other teams would want for the playoffs. But if the Giants trade Durham midseason and Bonds misses more than half the season, this team is really going to struggle to put up runs. They haven't replaced Alou's bat.
   24. Steve Treder Posted: January 02, 2007 at 07:28 PM (#2272438)
I would not be shocked if the Giants lose 95 games in 2007. Zito will help, but that team really has no offense other than Bonds and Ray Durham.

Of course it's possible they'll lose 95. But they probably won't be that bad.

I think you're overstating how meek this offense will be. Yes, they haven't replaced Alou's bat, but he only had 378 PA's in 2006; he didn't have an enormous impact.

And in every other regard, their hitters are either returning, or being replaced by slightly better hitters in 2007:

- Bonds, Durham, Vizquel, Feliz, and Winn are all back. Durham probably won't be as good as he was in '06, but Winn will probably be better.

- Roberts in CF replaces Finley, and will almost certainly be an improvement.

- Klesko/Aurilia at 1B will almost certainly be better than Sweeney/Niekro/Hillenbrand were in '06.

- Molina at C will probably be better than Alfonzo/Matheny were in '06.

The '06 offense delivered a 95 OPS+; not good obviously but not terrible either. The most likely scenario is they'll deliver something close to that in '07. That combined with what looks to be a good rotation adds up to not a good team, but not a 95-game loser either.

Of course there are scenarios in which they could lose 95, but we shouldn't expect that.
   25. flournoy Posted: January 02, 2007 at 07:43 PM (#2272453)
It seems like I've been hearing, "The Giants need to keep a veteran team around to give them one more shot while Bonds is still playing" for five or six years now. They put together very good teams for a couple years after their World Series loss, but their direction has been clear for some time now.

The irony, of course, is that it is 2007 now, and Bonds is still with the team. (Or will be as soon as his deal is finalized.) If the Giants had rebuilt smartly, they could have been strong again by now. I don't know if the results would have been any better than they have actually turned out, but it's possible.

If the Giants' second best hitter is an .800 guy and their third best hitter is a powerless first baseman, they are in trouble.
   26. CrosbyBird Posted: January 02, 2007 at 07:48 PM (#2272456)
I don't expect 95 losses. I think this is a 75 win team, give or take a few wins. But if things break badly, I could see them being that bad. And with an old team, things are more likely to break really badly.

Alou had practically 2/3rds of a season; I would consider that to be a pretty significant impact. He was the 2nd best hitter on the team.

It looks like a dropoff is coming in a few places. Durham comes to mind with his career high SLG, but Vizquel put up his best OBP since 2000 last year and his power should also drop a tad, and Pedro Feliz looks like he's establishing a new level of suckitude.

That 95 OPS+ is with a top three of .454/.545, .352/.571, and .360/.538. Bonds is the only player reasonably predictable for an OBP over .370 OR a SLG over .500.

I don't expect Bonds to miss a ton of time next year (he did play in 130 games in 2006), but if he misses serious time, the Giants might struggle to score 700 runs in 2007.
   27. Steve Treder Posted: January 02, 2007 at 08:00 PM (#2272461)
That 95 OPS+ is with a top three of .454/.545, .352/.571, and .360/.538. Bonds is the only player reasonably predictable for an OBP over .370 OR a SLG over .500.

Sure, but team OPS+ is team OPS+. What matters isn't the best performance, but the aggregate. Most likely it will be a lineup without any stars, but also without any sinkholes.
   28. CrosbyBird Posted: January 02, 2007 at 08:11 PM (#2272466)
Sure, but team OPS+ is team OPS+. What matters isn't the best performance, but the aggregate. Most likely it will be a lineup without any stars, but also without any sinkholes.

I don't disagree, but I think the Giants are losing a good portion of the spikes at the top that help pull the whole thing up. It is going to take a lot of improvment at the margins to overcome losing Alou's 2006 offense and having Durham drop down to earth.

I'd also say Feliz is pretty likely to be a sinkhole and 1B might very well be one too.
   29. Steve Treder Posted: January 02, 2007 at 08:20 PM (#2272472)
I'd also say Feliz is pretty likely to be a sinkhole and 1B might very well be one too.

Possible, of course. But more likely Feliz will rebound to something around a 90 OPS+ -- not good obviously, but not a sinkhole -- and Klesko/Aurilia will patch together something that's while again not good, not the bottomless pit of Sweeney/Niekro/Hillenbrand in '06 (83/71/74).

I completely agree that Alou's bat is a loss. But when you add up everything that's most likely to occur, the result is an offense along the same lines as last year's: not good, but not terrible.
   30. StrangeBrewer5 Posted: January 03, 2007 at 03:32 AM (#2272684)
74 RBI leads the team....ouch
   31. Hurdle's Heroes (SuperBaes) Posted: January 03, 2007 at 04:27 AM (#2272709)
Am I the only one who wants to see Jack McKeon manage this team?
   32. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 03, 2007 at 05:35 AM (#2272731)
Durham and Bonds the only guys on this team with a 800+ OPS. Yikes!

And Bonds is the only guy on this team with a +800 OPS. Double Yikes!
   33. kwarren Posted: January 04, 2007 at 12:49 AM (#2273505)
ZiPS has Jones at 243/292/398. Remember, he's still really young.

|Beware of this low projection.

Shandler has Adam Jones at .769 and STATS at .751. His MLE OPS for the past two seasons are .777 and .798. I can't really figure out why ZIPS is so negative, other than his 74 unimpressive major league at bats at age 20.
   34. kwarren Posted: January 04, 2007 at 12:52 AM (#2273509)
ZiPS has Jones at 243/292/398. Remember, he's still really young.

|Beware of this low projection.

Shandler has Adam Jones at .769 and STATS at .751. His MLE OPS for the past two seasons are .777 and .798. I can't really figure out why ZIPS is so negative, other than his 74 unimpressive major league at bats at age 20.

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