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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

2007 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Ichiro Suzuki*        rf 33 .319 .366 .413 156 675 103 215 19 6 11 56 49 69 32 5
Raul Ibanez*        lf 35 .283 .353 .447 144 561 84 159 31 2 19 90 61 101 2 4
Richie Sexson         1b 32 .246 .336 .478 142 521 73 128 31 0 30 98 69 148 1 1
Ben Broussard*        1b 30 .276 .333 .472 139 428 57 118 23 2 19 68 34 105 2 2
Kenji Johjima         c   31 .286 .336 .435 125 434 50 124 21 1 14 59 22 40 2 1
Adrian Beltre         3b 28 .275 .333 .446 152 596 85 164 37 1 21 94 48 102 7 3
Jose Guillen         rf 31 .260 .327 .449 110 408 58 106 21 1 18 65 28 80 1 2
Jose Vidro#          2b 32 .279 .344 .382 106 387 43 108 22 0 6 40 37 43 0 0
Eduardo Perez         1b 37 .232 .311 .437 95 254 24 59 13 0 13 32 24 55 0 1
Jose Lopez           2b 23 .275 .314 .423 144 556 74 153 32 4 14 79 27 67 5 3
Greg Dobbs*          3b 28 .280 .324 .393 123 407 45 114 18 2 8 51 24 60 8 5
Jeremy Reed*        cf 26 .262 .335 .393 115 400 59 105 22 3 8 45 41 52 12 10
Michael Morse         3b 25 .258 .310 .405 101 341 38 88 19 2 9 48 23 67 2 1
Bryan LaHair*        lf 24 .257 .313 .385 127 455 46 117 19 0 13 63 36 111 1 0
Hunter Brown         3b 27 .246 .325 .374 115 390 53 96 25 2 7 43 44 82 9 7
Yuniesky Betancourt*    ss 25 .281 .305 .392 161 581 67 163 27 7 8 52 22 50 12 10
Adam Jones           cf 21 .243 .292 .398 132 460 56 112 20 3 15 56 29 97 10 6
Sean Burroughs*      3b 26 .262 .316 .331 106 381 45 100 16 2 2 32 26 50 3 1
Gookie Dawkins       ss 28 .242 .298 .383 91 277 38 67 16 1 7 27 20 67 6 6
Michael Wilson#      rf 24 .227 .290 .378 132 458 52 104 22 1 15 58 37 141 3 3
Wladimir Balentien     rf 22 .214 .281 .397 129 459 52 98 22 1 20 65 42 146 8 4
Jamie Burke         c   35 .248 .298 .348 90 302 30 75 15 0 5 33 19 44 0 1
Jeff Clement*        c   23 .241 .297 .344 82 294 21 71 13 1 5 35 18 53 0 1
Michael Garciaparra     2b 24 .253 .317 .320 87 297 41 75 9 1 3 23 26 58 4 5
Willie Bloomquist     cf 29 .249 .298 .309 91 233 30 58 9 1 1 18 15 37 11 2
Jose Morban#        2b 27 .212 .271 .356 77 264 35 56 12 1 8 28 19 96 6 5
Oswaldo Navarro       ss 22 .226 .294 .302 142 464 39 105 20 0 5 42 42 84 6 6
Jason Bourgeois#      lf 25 .236 .283 .312 115 407 48 96 18 2 3 31 25 72 13 8
Tony Torcato*        lf 27 .237 .275 .314 108 325 27 77 14 1 3 33 14 40 2 2
Yung Chi Chen         2b 23 .232 .271 .307 129 488 60 113 19 3 4 46 24 79 11 5
Brant Ust           3b 28 .218 .263 .318 98 340 34 74 13 0 7 35 18 95 2 1
Rey Ordonez         ss 35 .228 .269 .301 82 272 26 62 15 1 1 23 13 27 1 2
Rene Rivera         c   23 .218 .235 .310 73 239 17 52 13 0 3 19   4 43 1 1

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Adam Jones

Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .283 .340 .482 158 562 85 159 33 5 23 91 45 104 17 6
Mean         .243 .292 .398 132 460 56 115 20 3 15 56 29 97 10 6  
Pessimistic (15%) .237 .281 .372 109 379 42 90 17 2 10 39 22 87 6 5

Top Comps: Ruppert Jones, Bobby Tolan

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
J.J. Putz           30   2.88   4   2 70   0   75.0   64   24   8   17   80
George Sherrill*      30   3.40   5   3 61   0   53.0   44   20   5   19   55
Felix Hernandez       21   3.71 16 10 33 31   199.0 187   82 21   64 175
Julio Mateo           29   3.97   5   4 50   0   68.0   70   30   9   18   44
Eric O’Flaherty*      22   4.35   3   3 57   0   91.0 101   44   7   34   53
Mark Lowe           24   4.44   3   3 50   2   73.0   71   36   9   35   60
Jarrod Washburn*      32   4.45   9 10 29 29   172.0 184   85 23   52   98
Jon Huber           25   4.55   5   5 66   4   91.0 100   46 11   27   52
Miguel Batista         36   4.62   9   9 39 27   185.0 194   95 16   77 102
Jake Woods*          25   4.73   4   5 43   7   99.0 102   52 13   49   67
Sean Green           28   4.79   3   3 45   0   62.0   64   33   6   31   35
Ryan Rowland-Smith*    24   4.92   5   7 37 13   119.0 130   65 14   49   74
Joel Pineiro         28   5.10   8 10 30 25   164.0 185   93 22   56   97
Horacio Ramirez*      27   5.13   6   9 25 24   142.0 160   81 21   50   59
Robert Rohrbaugh*      23   5.15   7 10 24 22   138.0 157   79 23   42   76
Justin Lehr           29   5.16   5   9 44 13   122.0 134   70 19   46   79
Jaime Cerda*          28   5.21   3   4 48   0   57.0   56   33   8   32   48
Sean White           26   5.45   4   9 21 19   119.0 140   72 13   50   51
Josh Kite*          25   5.50   1   1 37   0   36.0   39   22   3   20   21
Michael Wagner*        22   5.54   1   1 34   0   39.0   48   24   6   14   16
Renee Cortez         24   5.80   3   5 37   0   59.0   65   38   9   33   39
Jesse Foppert         26   5.95   2   3 17 15   59.0   61   39   9   42   43
Cha Seung Baek         27   6.02   5 10 23 21   124.0 148   83 27   43   66
Justin Huisman         28   6.10   2   4 35   1   62.0   69   42 11   34   43
Ryan Feierabend*      21   6.21   7 15 35 34   190.0 227 131 40   76 103
Mike Flannery         27   6.30   2   6 50   0   70.0   79   49 11   43   42
Yorman Bazardo         22   6.39   5 11 28 28   162.0 204 115 34   58   70
Cesar Jimenez*        22   6.62   5 12 42 20   136.0 163 100 25   70   61
Travis Blackley*      24   7.22   5 16 28 27   152.0 187 122 41   74   81
Cibney Bello         24   8.61   8 10 32 22   137.0 167 131 39 103   81

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) - King Felix
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.01 20   8 35 34 221 192   74 17   63 204
Mean           3.71 16 10 33 31 199 187   82 21   64 175
Pessimistic (15%)  4.78 10 12 28 26 160 165   85 23   61 134

Top Comps:  Don Drysdale, Larry Dierker

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 03, 2007 at 04:36 PM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Patrick L. Kennedy Posted: January 03, 2007 at 04:54 PM (#2272975)
Looks like a good rebound year for King Felix. I say that Gookie Dawkins should be allocated a high at bat total so there is an excuse to say his name more.
   2. Honkie Kong Posted: January 03, 2007 at 05:00 PM (#2272981)
Have I just been looking at a handful of bad teams, or is Zips very pessimistic this year?
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 03, 2007 at 05:06 PM (#2272986)
Have I just been looking at a handful of bad teams, or is Zips very pessimistic this year?

I think the former. ZiPS simply doesn't like 3 of the last 4 teams in alphabetical order (Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Seattle).
   4. The District Attorney Posted: January 03, 2007 at 05:14 PM (#2272997)
ZiPS simply doesn't like 3 of the last 4 teams in alphabetical order (Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Seattle).
Who does?? But are you implying it does like Washington? Well, I'll look forward to it, if only to see how much better Snelling projects than Vidro. 344/382 at DH? Yecch.
   5. frannyzoo Posted: January 03, 2007 at 05:27 PM (#2273010)
Fat, slow and unable to have anyone SLG for close to .500 is no way to go through a baseball season, son. Yet, in another thread, Bavasi opines the lineup will be stronger this year. What a forehanded slam on how putrid it was last year...or Bavasi is just the biggest GM idiot ever (or at least in the running).

The only reason to watch this team in '07 will be to see how fast our GM unloads Putz and King Felix. Rah. Rah.
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 03, 2007 at 05:35 PM (#2273016)
Who does?? But are you implying it does like Washington? Well, I'll look forward to it, if only to see how much better Snelling projects than Vidro. 344/382 at DH? Yecch.

Oh, I mean 3 of the last 4 teams that have been posted in alphabetical order.

Of the teams I've done that haven't been posted yet, ZiPS is generally positive about the Cardinals (except for the lack of rotation depth) is kinda blah on the Devil Rays and Rangers (but likes both bullpens) and while I haven't gotten to the hitters, likes half the Blue Jay pitchers and hates the other half (the Jays have a wacky distribution in which between Frasor at 3.77 and Neal at 4.60 there is only Scott Downs at 4.33).
   7. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 03, 2007 at 05:40 PM (#2273020)
Just to get a head start on the Bavasi bashing, how does Snelling look? And hell, Fruto, too?
   8. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 03, 2007 at 05:53 PM (#2273037)
262/338/408 for Snelling in Washington, 4.55 for Fruto.

Nothing too outstanding, but obviously better and cheaper than Vidro. Usually after I see what I think is a bad trade, I like to reapproach it a few days later and see if I can see it from the pov of the GM I think made the bad trade. Usually I can sort of see their point. In this case, I'm still dumbfounded. Especially with Broussard's projection.
   9. bibigon Posted: January 03, 2007 at 06:33 PM (#2273085)
Interesting that the differential between Jones' 15th percentile projection and his mean is only 9 points of OBP, and 26 points of SLG, while the differential between the 85th percentile and the mean is 48 points of OBP, and 84 points of SLG.
   10. David Cameron Posted: January 03, 2007 at 07:32 PM (#2273138)
Dan,

Have you thought about posting the raw numbers for runs and hit by pitches so that we could calculate things like projected FIP and LOB%? For instance, on the King Felix pessimistic projection, the rate stats aren't all that different from the mean (per nine innings, it's half a walk, less than half a strikeout, and a third of a home run), but the ERA is a run higher, so it appears that the pessimistic scenario for Felix is that he just sucks at stranding runners again.
   11. David Cameron Posted: January 03, 2007 at 09:09 PM (#2273257)
It's a different way to do things, certainly. But I'm not sure we want projection systems trying to predict luck, do we? If we assume that luck is person independant and random, theoretically all we should care about is the players ability level and then add in an equal luck variability for all players.
   12. Sparkles Peterson Posted: January 03, 2007 at 10:28 PM (#2273364)
The optimistic model isn't an 85th percentile projection of ability error with normal luck, it's a model of 65th-70th percentile of ability and 65th-70th percentile of luck


I'd kind of be interested in seeing his 85th percentile of ability with normal luck. I'd imagine I'm not the only one who would not be at all surprised if he exceeded this optimistic projection.
   13. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 03, 2007 at 11:35 PM (#2273438)
Remember when the Mariners were good? Me, too.

That seems like a long time ago now.
   14. vortex of dissipation Posted: January 03, 2007 at 11:41 PM (#2273443)
Isn't a projection of two home runs for Sean Burroughs a bit on the high side?
   15. Dr. Vaux Posted: January 04, 2007 at 12:50 AM (#2273507)
It's really too bad. The Mariners are one of those teams that it's nice when they're good.
   16. frannyzoo Posted: January 04, 2007 at 05:48 PM (#2273911)
Speaking of when we were good, and all that...I feel compelled to remind everyone that the Ms traded Carlos Guillen in 2004 to the Tigers for Ramon Santiago and a Juan Gonzalez (no, not that one) who never made it out of the minors. That trade was on January 8, 2004. Bill Bavasi took the GM job in November, 2003.

It's pretty clear Bavasi is a Billy Beane plant inside the Ms organization. There's no other explanation. I suggest we hook electrical cables to Bavasi's shrunken, misshapen testicles and get the truth out, put a hood on his head, have a do a Jesus Christ pose, then kick him out of a moving car along Marginal Way, S.

Just a suggestion.
   17. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: January 04, 2007 at 05:56 PM (#2273917)
It's pretty clear Bavasi is a Billy Beane plant inside the Ms organization.

I think of him as a Bill Stoneman plant. Maybe Beane and Stoneman have agreed to trade division titles and have planted Bavasi to guarantee success. Huh? What? tex-us? What's a tex-us?
   18. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: January 04, 2007 at 07:55 PM (#2274045)
Top Ten Worst Current GM's?

My list:

1) Bavasi
2) Krivsky
3) Sabean
4) Littlefield
5) Hendry
6) Bowden
7) Colletti
8) Purpura
9) Moore
10) Ricciardi

The last three were hard to come up with. Purpura's on there because of his (Drayton's?) insistence on leaving three sieves in the batting order. Moore's in there because of Meche. JP's in there because, well, I couldn't think of a good one beyond him and decided to be overly harsh on the performance of his "prospects".
   19. Too Much Coffee Man Posted: January 04, 2007 at 08:20 PM (#2274070)
We've done this list just recently, but it seems to me that you have to put O'Dowd on this list.

And, not to hi-jack this, but I would rank Colletti much closer to the middle. He seems to alternate between decent trades/signings and really bad ones, but there are many on here that can't even claim that.
   20. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: January 06, 2007 at 12:59 AM (#2275141)
That must be a real death match between Bavasi and Krivsky at the top. I hope so. The sooner Bavasi leaves his job, the better, and I really don't care how it happens.

TOMPs* projects the Mariners thusly this season:

22-140, 132 RS, 2113 RA (think about that park-adjusted for a moment), three bad trades for useless veterans, four injuries to promising prospects, five million fans disgruntled, and a partridge in a pear tree.

*TOMPs (Team Overall Metric Projections) are derived by very carefully reaching up my butt, and pulling things out of it.
   21. Russ Posted: January 08, 2007 at 09:29 PM (#2276438)
No way is Sabean worse than Littlefield. I think you have to use the trick of removing a GM's best year and then looking at what's left. Subtract the Bay trade and Littlefield has essentially assembled the Cleveland Spiders.
   22. bookbook Posted: January 09, 2007 at 07:32 PM (#2276881)
Heck, I'd rather have Bavasi than Littlefield or Krivsky.

My sober 6 list:

Krivsky
Littlefield
Hendry
Sabean
Bavasi
O'Dowd

It's hard to remember that Bavasi hasn't been all destruction and evil. There has been somewhat of a luck factor in the horrific results of the Freddy Garcia trade and the Broussard trade that I don't fully hold against him.

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