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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, January 06, 2007

2007 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Albert Pujols         1b 27 .320 .423 .643 151 566 125 181 37 1 48 122 99 57 9 3
Scott Rolen         3b 32 .287 .371 .509 133 481 87 138 37 2 22 93 59 69 4 2
Jim Edmonds*        cf 37 .262 .372 .516 123 401 69 105 28 1 24 76 71 121 4 2
John Rodriguez*      lf 29 .270 .344 .465 120 333 52 90 20 3 13 52 35 88 4 2
Chris Duncan*        lf 26 .266 .346 .457 144 455 68 121 22 1 21 65 55 112 2 3
Brian Daubach*        1b 35 .250 .355 .420 86 276 38 69 17 0 10 41 43 64 0 1
Taggert Bozied       1b 27 .253 .330 .475 54 162 17 41 12 0 8 28 16 32 0 1
Eli Marrero         rf 33 .254 .328 .450 67 169 22 43 12 0 7 25 17 38 3 0
Ryan Ludwick         rf 28 .247 .316 .459 118 425 42 105 25 1 21 57 38 127 1 3
Ronnie Belliard       2b 32 .273 .331 .397 126 476 58 130 29 0 10 57 37 98 1 1
Scott Spiezio#        3b 34 .245 .328 .394 103 277 35 68 13 2 8 37 31 54 1 0
Larry Bigbie*        lf 29 .260 .325 .402 96 311 45 81 15 1 9 40 30 82 4 2
David Eckstein       ss 32 .282 .346 .346 127 514 74 145 20 2 3 35 39 44 7 4
Juan Encarnacion       rf 31 .265 .315 .405 122 442 53 117 22 2 12 58 28 72 3 4
Jorge Toca           1b 32 .271 .306 .412 84 306 34 83 16 0 9 39 13 61 0 1
Nick Stavinoha       rf 25 .266 .308 .402 107 376 51 100 16 1 11 50 22 63 1 1
Adam Kennedy*        2b 31 .273 .332 .366 136 440 52 120 23 3 4 49 34 67 15 7
Preston Wilson       lf 32 .249 .308 .396 98 361 41 90 18 1 11 48 27 94 4 2
So Taguchi           lf 37 .275 .324 .364 124 305 38 84 16 1 3 35 21 48 9 2
Juan Richardson       3b 28 .253 .313 .386 119 396 42 100 21 1 10 46 31 109 0 4
Aaron Miles#        2b 30 .275 .319 .350 124 426 52 117 17 3 3 35 26 43 6 3
Cody Haerther*        lf 23 .252 .299 .390 123 397 45 100 21 2 10 43 27 65 3 3
Timo Perez*          cf 32 .251 .307 .367 91 259 26 65 12 0 6 30 19 27 2 1
Skip Schumaker*      cf 27 .263 .315 .347 124 415 52 109 19 2 4 27 29 53 12 5
Junior Spivey         2b 32 .214 .321 .330 68 224 24 48 11 0 5 20 31 55 5 4
Bo Hart             3b 30 .233 .288 .337 108 347 50 81 19 1 5 26 23 59 6 2
Michel Hernandez       c   28 .243 .310 .301 85 259 20 63 9 0 2 22 24 26 1 1
Tyler Greene         ss 23 .222 .283 .329 134 487 61 108 20 1 10 40 35 156 27 5
Brendan Ryan         ss 25 .246 .289 .327 69 248 36 61 17 0 1 16 14 30 6 2
Jose Vizcaino#        ss 39 .246 .295 .325 91 203 19 50 11 1 1 17 13 27 0 1
Derek Wathan#        2b 30 .238 .274 .348 71 244 27 58 14 2 3 18 11 46 6 3
Yadier Molina         c   24 .232 .279 .338 128 423 34 98 21 0 8 53 24 36 1 2
John Nelson         ss 28 .204 .274 .338 108 343 33 70 16 0 10 31 30 127 5 1
Reid Gorecki         cf 26 .209 .284 .340 101 359 38 75 20 0 9 40 36 92 13 8
Gary Bennett         c   35 .224 .292 .305 61 174 13 39 8 0 2 20 16 32 0 0
Ryan Christianson     c   26 .208 .266 .322 91 307 26 64 11 0 8 31 23 86 4 1
Desi Relaford#        2b 33 .200 .285 .294 97 310 38 62 15 1 4 26 33 56 4 3
Travis Hanson*        3b 26 .216 .263 .306 133 477 46 103 20 1 7 43 30 96 1 1
Miguel Negron*        rf 24 .204 .266 .278 121 485 64 99 20 2 4 35 38 72 10 9

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Albert Pujols

Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .345 .453 .689 156 585 148 200 46 2 51 153 115 50 11 2  
Mean         .320 .423 .643 151 566 125 181 37 1 48 122 99 57 9 3    
Pessimistic (15%) .300 .395 .557 133 497 97 149 29 0 33 90 78 55 6 3

Top Near-Age Comps: Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Chris Carpenter       32   3.06 16   6 30 30   209.0 187   71 21   42 170
Adam Wainwright       25   3.45   7   4 71   0   86.0   80   33 10   22   71
Braden Looper         32   3.53   7   4 68   0   74.0   75   29   5   23   43
Jason Isringhausen     34   3.54   5   3 63   0   61.0   50   24   6   30   56
Brad Thompson         25   3.60   4   2 57   5   95.0   95   38 10   26   57
Anthony Reyes         25   3.86 10   7 27 26   154.0 147   66 24   39 130
Josh Hancock         29   3.99   3   2 47   3   70.0   68   31   8   21   44
Josh Kinney           28   4.01   4   4 73   0   92.0   84   41   9   44   72
Russ Springer         38   4.17   2   2 62   0   54.0   50   25   8   19   43
Andy Cavazos         26   4.28   6   5 64   0   80.0   78   38   8   37   59
Jeff Weaver           30   4.28 11 11 30 30   187.0 195   89 25   52 116
Orber Moreno         30   4.29   1   1 18   0   21.0   21   10   1   10   14
Randy Flores*        31   4.40   4   3 51   0   47.0   48   23   5   20   39
Troy Cate*          26   4.42   4   3 41   0   53.0   48   26   7   29   51
Mark Mulder*          29   4.61 10 10 27 27   170.0 179   87 20   66 100
Brian Falkenborg       29   4.65   4   5 50   0   60.0   62   31   8   23   43
Blake Hawksworth       24   4.81   9 10 31 29   176.0 189   94 20   72   98
Jorge Sosa           30   4.97   5   7 37 11   96.0   95   53 15   52   80
Kip Wells           30   4.98   6   9 22 22   121.0 121   67 15   67   91
Ricardo Rincon*        37   5.00   1   2 56   0   36.0   33   20   4   25   33
John Riedling         31   5.06   2   4 42   0   48.0   51   27   5   25   27
Dennis Tankersley       28   5.11   7   9 27 24   148.0 157   84 21   67   91
Matt Perisho*        32   5.11   2   3 42   0   37.0   37   21   5   20   26
Tyler Johnson*        26   5.25   2   3 67   0   60.0   53   35   8   47   63
Randy Keisler*        31   5.25   5   8 33 16   120.0 134   70 16   51   65
Chris Narveson*        25   5.45   5   8 23 22   119.0 126   72 20   60   78
Stuart Pomeranz       22   5.48   6   9 23 23   138.0 161   84 24   48   66
Mike Smith           29   5.49   6 10 30 25   159.0 173   97 24   83   79
Brad Voyles           30   5.64   3   5 14 11   67.0   73   42 15   28   47
Eric Haberer*        24   5.69   7 12 29 28   174.0 201 110 25   79   72
Ricardo Rodriguez       29   5.75   5   8 18 17   108.0 127   69 19   40   44
Dennis Dove           25   5.82   4   7 62   0   82.0   95   53 16   32   45
Will Cunnane         33   5.87   2   3 31   2   46.0   51   30   8   24   30
Chris Lambert         24   6.63   6 15 28 28   148.0 170 109 33   81   96

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight (Beta) - Chris Carpenter
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  2.53 20   5 33 33 235 196   66 18   42 196
Mean           3.06 16   6 30 30 209 187   71 21   42 170  
Pessimistic (15%)  3.76 11   8 25 25 170 164   71 22   39 133

Top Near-Age Comps:  Mike Mussina, David Cone

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 06, 2007 at 05:48 PM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Who Swished In Your Cornflakes? Posted: January 06, 2007 at 06:10 PM (#2275459)
Prince Albert is a beast. I like the idea of he and Ryan Howard duking it out for the NL MVP for years to come, although I still maintain I'd give it to Albert every time unless Howard steps up his pitch recognition. It still blows my mind every year Pujols winds up with so few K's.

Oh, and Dan... Is there any way we could see a ZiPS projection on Wainwright as a starter? I don't know the status on Izzy right now and my assumption is Wainwright's being converted to a starting role this season. Anyone with knowledge of the situation, feel free to fill me in.
   2. DCW3 Posted: January 06, 2007 at 06:16 PM (#2275462)
Huh, those aren't bad projections from Rodriguez or Duncan at all--that would still probably make Duncan a pretty bad player, given that he plays the outfield like he's trying to solve a Rubik's Cube while being strafed by World War I biplanes, but it's still nice to have cheap outfield options who project to an .800+ OPS. Which means they'll probably give So Taguchi 500 ABs.
   3. greenback calls it soccer Posted: January 06, 2007 at 06:21 PM (#2275465)
Everything I've read indicates that the Cardinals would've preferred to leave Wainwright in the pen at least in April, but when it takes 4/40 to sign Jeff Suppan, they recognize don't have a choice.

Those are nice looking projections for J-Rod and Marrero. ZiPS doesn't like Encarnacion as much as it did a year ago.
   4. Who Swished In Your Cornflakes? Posted: January 06, 2007 at 06:22 PM (#2275466)
given that he plays the outfield like he's trying to solve a Rubik's Cube while being strafed by World War I biplanes

This is easily the funniest and most accurate description I've read of Chris Duncan's fielding "ability".
   5. 8ball Posted: January 06, 2007 at 06:27 PM (#2275467)
I've always liked Ryan Ludwick, and ZiPs projects him as being a pretty good 4th outfielder. Any chance he sticks on the major league roster?
   6. greenback calls it soccer Posted: January 06, 2007 at 06:27 PM (#2275468)
Dan, regarding Duncan's projection, have you noticed any difference in the development pattern for rookie LHB versus rookie RHB? I'd guess some LHB get a bit of a bounce from facing LHP less in the majors than they did in the minors.
   7. Mike J Posted: January 06, 2007 at 07:08 PM (#2275484)
Pretty optimistic project for Jimmy Ballgame, imo, I'll take the under on him and the over on Kennedy. I'll also take Molina to blow his projection away with a lofty .245/.295/.365 line.
   8. TOLAXOR Posted: January 06, 2007 at 07:09 PM (#2275485)
"Taggert Bozied"

IS MY NEW FAVORITE BASEBALL NAME!!!
   9. frannyzoo Posted: January 06, 2007 at 07:16 PM (#2275487)
Forget the whims of stupid MVP voters...Pujols is heading toward top five all-time right-handed hitter territory at this rate. And I agree, that K rate is positively Hornsby-esque.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: January 06, 2007 at 07:25 PM (#2275493)
That Encarnacion projection makes no sense. It's certainly possible -- he's had seasons like that in 2001 and 2004, though the latter was in Dodgers and the Marlins stadia. But his career SLG is 441, he's been a smidgen above that the last two seasons, and only once (2000) has he had an ISO that low. 265/315/435 I could believe (and it's not a huge improvement over what you've got), but just can't imagine how he could be projected to slug as low as 405 with an ISO of 140.

I'm also a little surprised that Edmonds projects as well.
   11. AlexIsADirtySanchez Posted: January 06, 2007 at 07:29 PM (#2275497)
Even without a designated 5th starter, that staff looks pretty darn good. Can't wait to see a sim on this year's ZiPS. Kinda surprised Hawksworth projects better than Narveson. Thompson is underrated by the Cardinal community as a whole.

Aka RedbirdRay
   12. OCF Posted: January 06, 2007 at 07:30 PM (#2275498)
I'm also a little surprised that Edmonds projects as well.

I suppose that's a question for Dan - what does his "pessimistic" line look like? I'd have to think that Edmonds is at least looking at the edge of the cliff.
   13. AROM Posted: January 06, 2007 at 07:30 PM (#2275499)
Since the Cards are getting back everyone from that 2000 trade and need starting pitching, can you run a ZIPS on Kent Bottenfield? :-)
   14. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: January 06, 2007 at 08:02 PM (#2275511)
Edmonds' slip last year was almost completely against left-handed pitching -- he actually hit righties better in 06 than in 05. I'm curious to see whether last year was an anamoly, or the first (or second) step down a steep decline.
   15. 1k5v3L Posted: January 06, 2007 at 08:21 PM (#2275518)
Tigers signed outfielder Timo Perez to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.

Timo and Neifi on the same team? The really amazing thing is that neither would be the worst hitter on the roster, what with Ramon Santiago already locked into a spot. Timo, though, shouldn't have any chance of winning a job out of spring training.
Source: Detroit News
   16. Balkroth Posted: January 06, 2007 at 08:34 PM (#2275523)
I'd say there is little to no chance of Ludwick making the team as a reserve outfielder.

I kinda hoped Zips would have Pu-Pu projected to 581 ABs, but oh well.

Oh, and is Carps the best "take a shot on the guy" luck out of all time? Wow.
   17. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: January 06, 2007 at 09:46 PM (#2275567)
What, "only" .320 for Pujols? :-) Guy's only hit below .329 once.
   18. danup Posted: January 06, 2007 at 11:34 PM (#2275586)
DCW3 that is maybe the best description I have ever heard.

Of anything.
   19. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: January 06, 2007 at 11:38 PM (#2275588)
Prince Albert is a beast.
You have to love a guy whose "pessimistic" ZiPS gives him a ZiPS that would've been 8th in the NL last year.
   20. DCW3 Posted: January 06, 2007 at 11:40 PM (#2275589)
You know, I just checked Duncan's card on Baseball Prospectus, and saw that they have him listed at two FRAA in the outfield. Now, I've learned not to trust my eyes too much when it comes to defense, but I like to think that I can still judge the extremes--and, my God, that has to completely destroy whatever little credibility FRAA still has as a stat.
   21. NBarnes Posted: January 06, 2007 at 11:54 PM (#2275594)
17: No, that goes to Johan Satana.
   22. danup Posted: January 07, 2007 at 12:00 AM (#2275597)
I'd definitely take that Edmonds projection.

And I'll definitely break Yadi's knees if he hits like that again.
   23. Walt Davis Posted: January 07, 2007 at 12:48 AM (#2275612)
And I'll definitely break Yadi's knees if he hits like that again.

You sure? Have you checked the alternatives? :-)
   24. danup Posted: January 07, 2007 at 02:30 AM (#2275647)
Hey, Gary Bennett may not have a lot of pop, but look at that OBP! Nearly .300!
   25. greenback calls it soccer Posted: January 07, 2007 at 03:25 AM (#2275662)
And I'll definitely break Yadi's knees if he hits like that again.

If Yadier Molina ran and hit with broken knees, could we tell?

Speaking of "take a shot on the guy" guys, mighty Transaction Oracle, could we see a projection somewhere for Chris Gissell? I believe he pitched for Seibu in 2006, which I'd guess means you have a ready-made translator for him. Not that he's special or anything, but it wouldn't surprise me if he looked statistically as good as a couple of pitchers who next year will make 10 or 20 times what Gissell makes in 2007.
   26. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: January 07, 2007 at 03:51 AM (#2275673)
I did finish my little start/relief toy. It has Wainwright at 11-8, 3.85 in 166 IP as a starter.


If Reyes, Wainwright and Edmonds meet their projections, the Cardinals are in nice shape.
   27. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 07, 2007 at 04:24 AM (#2275685)
Are the Cardinals a better bet to win the 2007 World Series than they were to win the 2006 World Series after having made the playoffs, barely? Inquiring St Louis minds want to know.
   28. myst333 Posted: January 07, 2007 at 04:49 AM (#2275699)
A lot of it comes down to Tony. If he reconizes that the kids can do the job and lets them play over people like So, Juan, whatever re-tread comes in to pitch in the #5 slot, then they have a good chance.

If Juan E and So combine for 700 AB next year, its not going to be pretty. If JRod starts against RHP, we have a chance.

If Thompson / Naverson fight it out for the #5 slot it may go well. If we dump 10mil into a replacement level pitcher for that slot, not so much.
   29. KJOK Posted: January 07, 2007 at 08:22 AM (#2275743)
You sure? Have you checked the alternatives? :-)

Marrero looks like a fine alternative, right? ;>)
   30. Astro-Bonilla Posted: January 07, 2007 at 12:27 PM (#2275772)

Are the Cardinals a better bet to win the 2007 World Series than they were to win the 2006 World Series after having made the playoffs, barely? Inquiring St Louis minds want to know.
Not even close. Because of the variance (or luck or whatever you want to call it) involved in short series-the devil rays take 4 out of 7 (in a row) vs. the red sox and/or yanks just about every year-any team that makes the playoffs has a decent chance of winning it.

I doubt the Cardinals were any bigger than 60/40 dogs in any of the series they played.
   31. GuyM Posted: January 07, 2007 at 01:45 PM (#2275778)
It has Wainwright at 11-8, 3.85 in 166 IP as a starter.

Seems like you may have a problem with the toy (or Wainwright's relief projection). A pitcher should be projected to have an ERA about .80 to 1.0 higher as a starter than as a reliever. If he's really a 3.85 starter, he should be better than a 3.45 reliever.
   32. GuyM Posted: January 07, 2007 at 03:16 PM (#2275788)
Those other results sound very reasonable. But with 75 IP in relief to work with, we can't possibly know if Wainwright's start/relief gap is more narrow than usual. I guess the question is whether we're saying 1) he's a 3.85 starter (based on minor-lg data), and we're going to project him at 3.45 in relief (sounds reasonable), or 2) we think he's a 3.45 reliever, who will only gain .40 if moved to the rotation (not reasonable). I'm not sure which ZIPS is really telling us.

BTW, could you post a link to a description of the ZIPS methodology?
   33. PitViper Posted: January 08, 2007 at 02:46 AM (#2276049)
Why does ZIPS think that a 37-year old Jim Edmonds will go from an OPS of .822 to .888, especially considering that his OPS has declined in each of the last 2 seasons?
   34. DCW3 Posted: January 08, 2007 at 08:27 AM (#2276158)
Why does ZIPS think that a 37-year old Jim Edmonds will go from an OPS of .822 to .888, especially considering that his OPS has declined in each of the last 2 seasons?

Because a player whose OPS has declined each of the last two seasons should be considered a good bet to rebound.
   35. bibigon Posted: January 08, 2007 at 09:12 AM (#2276162)
Dan, could you run the starter/relief toy on Papelbon?
   36. Dr. Vaux Posted: January 08, 2007 at 10:34 AM (#2276166)
Papelbon's ERA will almost certainly be at least four times higher than it was last year.
   37. OCF Posted: January 08, 2007 at 07:24 PM (#2276363)
like he's trying to solve a Rubik's Cube while being strafed by World War I biplanes

I don't think that line worked on me the way it worked for most readers here - but that's because I personally know someone who can solve a Rubik's Cube one-handed while juggling two others with his other hand. Let him use two hands and he can relibably and repeatedly solve a 3 X 3 X 3 cube in under 15 seconds.
   38. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 08, 2007 at 08:54 PM (#2276417)
BTW, could you post a link to a description of the ZIPS methodology?

I wrote a basic one a few years ago but I can't seem to find it now. I really need to write up a new description - I tend to make the false assumption that everyone reading ZiPS has been involved in every discussion about ZiPS over the last 5 years, which is a pretty stupid assumption.

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